. >>> when we come back we'll talk with the toys "r" us ceo jerry storch then it's the final holidaypping record card for the year for the likes of fedex and u.p.s. what that means for investors coming up. later, why one strategist is calling the recession risk excessive. a busy hour still ahead when "squawk alley" comes back. this music is supposed to relax me, though. ♪ maybe you'd mellow out a bit if you got geico to help you with your renters insurance. oh, geico helps with renters insurance? good to know. yeah, and they could save you a lot of money. wow, suddenly i feel so relieved. you guys are fired. get to know geico and see how much you could save on renters insurance. i've done all sorts of research, read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here an

but we had jerry storch on earlier. >> i heard that.talking to him. >> no, no. his point is, look it's going to be a good holiday season we just don't know if it's going to be a great holiday season it's a longer holiday calendar this time around because thanksgiving was earlier if you're using this as an economic indicator of the consumer, that's one thing >> things are cheaper but they're not making as much money. >> this is terrible, but i don't really care. from an economics point of view. you want to know what people are spending right? i mean, you guys will do the stocks i do the other stuff i'm the janitor. i'm cleaning the toilets out here you're running the business. >> that's true good then we're back to four hikes next year. >> that's the thing. >> you can't give me anything i like >> no. because you're not doing it right. >> it's all bad news >> it's not all bad news. >> if it's really above expectations then -- >> oh, my god. not four hikes but not zero. which is what the market's thinking about you can't have -- you're lik

so who better to ask, former chairman anzio of toys "r" us, jerry storch.eek ago, the mission began university confidence number came out, 12% of those respondents mentioned the recent volatility in the market but the numbers remain high, they remain relatively elevated compared to earlier this year. >> all the numbers are high. people are making a lot out of these conference board numbers. people are trying to talk themselves into recession or something but the conference board numbers are important to note are still among the highest they have been in 18 years. sure it is down versus october but that was 18-year high. if you didn't have the october or november numbers, december would be an 18-year high. the numbers are very strong. if you ask people things get better or worse, will employment get better, it is full employment basically. how will it get better than from? essentially the numbers remain good. as you point out the michigan numbers about, second consumer confidence survey were up for december. both of them are up versus december this year. the