jerry webman is with us from oppenheimer funds. it is a new britain. e all this history where things got shattered, didn't they? jerry: the debate in labour going back to the early 1960's, there was a book in the early 1960's that argued if labour party does not move to the center, it will lose elections. it could be ideologically pure which is sort of the direction that -- it has always been a fight between what was a more orthodox socialist view, more centralist so-called renew labor. tom: can you bring those lessons over to the united states as we move into 2016? jerry: i don't think the language is meaningful here. compared to the rest of the world, we do not get very far to the left. if you look at how many policies, each of these parties state that used to be somebody else's policy, whether it is free trade among the democrats or it is a part d medicare for the republicans you know, using the earned income credit something that came out of the right. now the left supports it. our parties are very close together. brendan: i would argue that the dem

joining us is jerry webman. michael is a senior vice president of investments at ubs. welcome to both of you. jerry, what do you expect from the jobs number because guesses are all over the map this time. >> guesses are guesses but i think getting to this 225, maybe 250 range it seems right maybe on the low end of that. you know the labour market has been weak. it's weird. we're not firing people. really low numbers on new unemployment claims but reluctance to hire too. so i think we're kind of in this kind of -- nobody knows where to go. earnings aren't okay. revenues aren't great. people aren't spending. so we'll cut a few more paychecks. that's the critical thing. we'll get another, you call it 225,000 new paychecks for the last month and that's supportive but it's not great momentum. >> what if we get a number like we got last month. something that surprises to the down side. >> i think that is -- i don't think bad news is going to be good news in this instance. i think there's a lot of worry about the momentum of the u.s. economy coming out of this first quarter. w