thank you for joining us, jim bianco.ext, we will talk about the fed spectrometer. ♪ stephanie: welcome back to bloomberg go. i'm vonnie quinn. general electric is selling off its financial units. it's ge's japanese -- business. ge is leaving to concentrate purely on manufacturing. -- mechanical is moving ahead with a takeover plan for syngenta. chemchina is discussing a revised proposal after its first one was considered too low. syngenta is also holding talks with monsanto. investors are sharing in the benefits of rising airplane deliveries at boeing. it expanded its stock buyback plan to $14 billion. decade concern after a of rising sales, the bull market for airliners might be slowing down. david: brenton is back with us for his weekly big idea. today's focus is the fed. he has a spectrometer which sounds pretty fancy. why has this got you so excited? brendan: this is not my spectrometer but i refer to it all the time. this is in fact carl riccadonna's spectrometer. this is the makeup of the federal open market commit

think the fed does either based on those metrics, of course, but, you know, we're going to have jim bianco on after the new year, and he is going to give us an unemployment rate with the participation rate held in that constant form, and that's very enlightening. back to the point, it's all about how the markets may be disrupted, but my hype thooesz thesz is different. now, whether it's correct or not, time will tell. i hope it is. the fact of the matter and quite simple language is they're too low. period. end of story. and if we don't recalibrate to something higher, we're never going to be able to do it. we're recalibrated for a rate that's a crisis rate, and even if that crisis rate, they're not getting any type of significant cost benefit to the damage side of the equation, which are bubbles, which are a lot of issues. you know, in their own words, i believe it was two or three days after the statement, you had a lot of federal agencies. you know, you had the fed. you had the fdic. all very nervous about the bubble that may be forming in commercial real estate. there's a lot of areas

i got an e-mail from jim bianco, who said to look at total u.s.n. total u.s. production is increasing here over the last five years, continuing to rise. in yellow, i have inventories bouncing around a little bit, but also at a real high-level, even as price comes down. continuedproduction to rise after the price at peak -- had peaked. the price just came down, and production kept going up. david: though there is a drop off. matt: it drops off a little, but compared to the last five years it is massive. david: one big change in the world economy is the u.s. became a net oil exporter. the u.s. dollar is forecasted to strengthen against all major peers except for the pound and canadian dollar in the first quarter of next year. sharplydiction differs with the current trajectory of the dollar, on the longest losing streak since april. the dollar has been coming down a little bit, oksana, but don't we expect the dollar to stay pretty strong? oksana: that seems to be a perfectly understandable conventional wisdom. as rates move up, you expect the dollar

jim bianco and david rosenberg join us to weigh in this afternoon. great to have you both on board.re more fund failures to come? >> usually you don't stop at three after two days when you start seeing something like this. to quote jeffrey gun lock there's never more than one dock o roach. >> there's never just one cockroach you mean. >> yes, i said it wrong. >> are we talking just about the riskiest part of the credit space, just the energy portfolio, i mean, where is risk coming from and where do you see it potentially going? >> i think it's coming from the energy portfolio, i think if there is a story here the story is that we've got the fundamental story on energy wrong. we all thought it was going to be a huge positive for the u.s. economy because it was going to be a tax cut for the consumer. that really didn't happen and what it wound up being was a stress point for the financial markets which is now manifesting itself in a high yield market. a lot of highly indebted energy companies especially in the tracking space are under severe pressure especially in the opec meeting ten

jim bianco basically said the for severalll boats years and raised the price of treasuries.ther or not it helps spur economic growth, that helped lift stocks and now the fed is pushing down on everything. he sees the trend continuing for the foreseeable future. basically flat returns if not lower for some asset classes. scarlet: thank you very much. sectionfast commentary is gadfly on the bloomberg terminal. founder of shiv kumar global strategies will be joining us. ♪ david: it is 2 p.m. in new york and 7 p.m. in london. welcome to bloomberg markets. from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, this is bloomberg markets. oil starting the final trade of the year, off about 30% this year. what does it mean for the future fracking? foras a merry christmas retail after that a late shopping surge lifted sales. we have a look at the biggest winners and losers. makes a zuckerberg personal appeal for free internet in india, calling it a bridge out of poverty. find out why regulators are not as excited. first, let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest. julie:

. >> jim bianco, always a pressure., back to you. >> it getting more and more historic. >>> it might feel forever, but it's only two days since cybermonday, now millions of mac ca packages are out for delivery. some landlords are saying no more. diana olick has more on that. >> black friday and cybermonday adds to millions of packages flooding into apartment mailroom packages like this one. as early as yesterday the loaded carts were rolling in. santa's sleighs have nothing on u.p.s. this year, but this is posing challenges to landlords. the number of rental houses has been soaring with little letup in demand. apartment construction has been s soaring and camden property trust implemented a controversial no package policy at most properties. they said the package glut was costing them almost $3 million a year in lost productive. the it was met with complaints from drentsz but not enough to change the policy. >> no, we do not have evidence that anyone has moved out because of this. we had a few residents tell us they pla

goant to bring in jim beyond -- jim bianco.t put out a p saying that it investors had listened to icons five years ago, who said that the fed meeting rates as low as they are will eventually hurt investors. is this what is happening today? >> if you look at the markets from an asset allocation standpoint, the best returning asset this year is cash at 1/10 of 1%. we have data going back 80 years. there is no way to make money this year. five years ago, it david tepper said that the fed is going to do qe and everything will go up and it did. and now the fed has stopped and nothing is going up. and from an asset allocation standpoint, we have the worst year. david: the thing that bothers me about this is that money is only good if it is working. it isn't doing any good sitting there. if it is on the sidelines it will be hard to do the basic economy and get it going. barry: that is correct. if you look at why this is going on, it is the reduction of stimulus. by the way, you could expand that list out quite a bit. emerging stocks,

. >> all the things jim bianco put it nicely this morning i wonder if you agree when he said we're seeing reverse tepper here, you know, back when the feds launched qe david tepper was saying the economy strength in stocks do well or it will weaker and they will do for qe and stocks will do well. is it creating a situation where it's hard for asset prices to do well? >> we think at goldman sachs asset management informed caution in general about equity markets is very important but a lot of abundance at the individual company level. this move was very well telegraphed and we still see a lot of opportunity at the individual company and stock level. >> all right. katie, good to see you. thank you. have a good holiday. >> you, too. >> katie koch of goldman sachs asset management. >>> we are heading to the close with about 17 minutes left in the trading session, the dow up 57 points. >> up next we're visiting the land of misfit stocks, dominic chu will look at whether they can recover come 2016. >>> welcome back. you blink and the dow is up 70 or now 64 points, the nasdaq 26. let's zero in on