jim bianco, your argument? jim: the argument makes perfect sense, it has been what has been the case for the past 12 years, because we have been in a low inflation or maybe even deflationary environment. but if the market is now reacting to something we have not seen in a generation, inflation, and you can argue right now the headline and core numbers are the highest we have seen in 30 years, then you can expect a bit of a different response out of the market, in that we would see higher yields moving forward. but if inflation is indeed transitory -- count me as one of those who is not convinced it is -- then, yes, the reaction we have seen over the last 12 years is exactly what you would expect. jonathan: what i'm describing right now on the bullish side of the argument is actually a more mid to late bond market cycle reaction. nobody has any idea where we are in this cycle. we had to restart, the reopening, but where are we at the moment? can we really draw a parallel with this short, long recovery from the pr

i want to bring in jim bianco. i have to give you kudos. your work early on with covid-19.i thought it was hyperbolic, i said this dude was crazy. you brought projections. put it out there for everyone to see. it all came true. so i wanted to ask you about this, the delta variant and all the other variants coming on, how concerned are you now? what are the risks we could possibly be facing now and the near term horizon? >> thank you about the comment about my stuff from last year. the delta variant, i want to break it into two parts, the health part and the economic part. as far as the health part goes if you're vaccinated i don't think you have much to worry about. i don't think even if you're not vaccinated, we have 18 months of treatment, we know how to take care of people who get it. we have a better understanding what is going on. while there is concern that there might be a rise in cases and a rise of people getting sick, it will be nothing like last year. that is the good news. the bad news is, we have a bunch of politicians that always believed they need to do more

. >>> lindsey bell from allied invest is still with us, and jim bianco is joining the conversation mike much a nasdaq day. again the yield move cements to set the tone the s&p was looking a bit stressed no disaster struck in april, the market just flattened out a bit, so we'll see if we're in for something like that. frankly if the economic data continues to support this current theme of deceleration coming off -- and slightly more defensive tone for the market. >> jim, i wanted to come to on you what your take was for those moves. >> similar to what mike said as well i think the market is getting concerned that the real economic data is weakening. if it was really concerned about it weakening, we would be down more than 15 or 20 basis points over two points, we would be down 50 to 75, so i think there's an undertow of an inflation worry in this market again, after we went from 50 basis points last something to 1.8, to back off to 1.4 or so right now is not really that much if we were really concerned about the economy slowing. so there is probably some fear that inflation is still hang

i want to bring in jim bianco. , these are the lowest levels since early march 2020. still the restrictions are coming. they will be impactful. how do you see them influencing the economy and even the stock market? >> well, you're right that we've got cases, deaths, hospitalizations are down. but the case count is up. unfortunately politicians make decisions off of case counts there are two-ways to look at it. one, when the restrictions come, that means less economic activity. lower earnings, that sounds bearish for the market. listen to what biden announced today, they will extend the eviction moratorium, they promised, july 31st, would be the last time they did it. they will extend it again. that means more stimulus, more money will get mailed to people. that always winds up in brokerage accounts. that wipeds up buying stocks. so maybe what they're looking at is this idea that restrictions means more mailed money and we saw from the spring that that was bullish for the stock market. so that seems to be the prevail

jonathan: this is from jim bianco. don't forget ted lasso is on apple tv. season two drops friday.ic friedman said he is watching. ted lasso, it away from the gloom. jason sudekis. jonathan: are they actually in richmond? tom: they film it at crystal palace and they give a shout out to crystal palace early on. i believe it is filmed at crystal palace. jonathan: that is south of the river. tom: i believe they do it there. jonathan: i am pleased you have your geography of london. tom: you have to get on this bandwagon. tyler's -- jonathan: i love love violent. i'm not even up to speed -- i love love island. tom: tyler is a constructive addition. we go to thomas costerg. thomas costerg joining us right now. within his research note is a really important observation about america's savings pile. he is optimistic we will spend a little bit of that savings pile over the next year to advance the american economy. what happens in a couple years to that still massive savings pile? thomas: the savings pile right now is around $2.5 trillion. the question for the economy is how much will be sp

but eq i want to bring in bianco research president jim bianco.would be aghast we're having this conversation to suggest that the stock market is smarter than the bond market but one of these asset classes is wrong about inflation. >> you're absolutely right. charles: i don't know. >> you're absolutely right because go back to the '87 crash, the bond market would typically turn before the stock market and would give you clues. that over the last year has been really called into question and i think the reason it has been called into question is the market is being dominated by the federal reserve. they're buying 120 billion, 1.5 a month, 1.5 trillion a year of bonds and the signal you expect from the bond market may not be that signal anymore because of all of the fed buying. so now we're caught in to use another old turn of phrase, greenspan's conundrum, that the bond market is not behaving as people would have thought it was going to behave but when you have a trillion 1/2 buyer using printed money to do it you're going to get weird things comin

so, isn't that a good thing joining me now to discuss president james of investment research and jim bianco, president of bianco research great to have you here i'll start with you, barry what is going on with inflation now with growth and mat,s, do you think? >> i think, you know, when we look at inflation, we've seen the roll over of any number of materials, you know, from lumber to gold and now oil. so i think that is part of what is, you know, in the equation. we look at the, of course, the interest rates and, you know, bond investors are saying we're not worried about it the weird thing is now we have real yields. it doesn't tend to stay there for that long. one or the other is going to be making the change. >> all right jim, which do you think is going to be making the big change from here on out? >> yeah. i fear it's going to be the stock market i got a little bit of a different take if you look at core inflation levels, you can take out lumber and energy you can take out all the commodities. inflation is still as high as the overall headline rates, as well, too. yeah the reopening t