jim bullard said the rates would stay. are you with jim bullard? i think jim bullard will be right only if the reflation and growth trade of the new administration is not tried. i think what we are seeing is a clear desire and the market seems to be believing them that the new administration will oversee tax reductions, infrastructure spent, and some deregulation. if that is the extent of the policy changes, you do get an acceleration of growth and flat forever does not work. david: recession. if you look at historically what happens, if you look at all the presidents, eight of 12 had a recession in the first year. we are overdue historically for a recession. what about that possibility? jim: that is a possibility, david. we are looking at a classic teams in stimulus in there sian stimuluskeye in there described policy. the advocacy from the administration spokespeople is, sure the unemployment rate is 4.9%, but it is really 11% and there are a lot of people who really want jobs who have not got them. i'm a little bit on the skeptical side about th

louis fed president, jim bullard. we will also speak to him at noon. to put the question of the dollar to him and some of mario draghi's comment and what he thinks about the strength or weakness of european banks. guy: i really cannot wait for that conversation. the fed firmly in focus with what yellen had to say yesterday. matt will speak to james bullard later today. next, it is surveillance here on bloomberg television. jonathan ferro and i will be on bloomberg radio kicking around the story. james bullard, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ seeing is believing, and that's why we're opening more xfinity stores closer to you. visit us today and learn how to get the most out of all your services, like xfinity x1. we'll put the power in your hands, so you can see how x1 is changing the way you experience tv with features like voice remote, making it easier and more fun than ever. there's more in store than you imagine. visit an xfinity store today and see for yourself. xfinity, the future of awesome. speed always wins. especially in my business. with slow

alsoe: jim bullard is bullish on the potential bubble. where do you see the potential's not? we might have a correction. i think the biggest risk is china but it is not china stock market. it is not china's currency but the real estate market because this is where the banks of exposure. this is what i monitor most closely, but to mark's point, people have been calling for a bubble in china for so long, i do not know when it will happen. i expected to play out differently than western markets closed government controls the banks. , fort: nick sargan washington investment advisor. we will have more on the global economy later today. ims managing director christine lagarde will be speaking with michael mckee in peru at 3:15 eastern and 8:15 london time. news, president-elect donald trump announcing a cabinet selection. jeff sessions as attorney general, mike pompeo as cia director and echo flynn has been announced as national security advisor. those are the official announcements made by the trump transition team. you are watching bloomberg markets. ♪ live from london and new yo

jim bullard is in london speaking at a ubs conference. among the headlines, he suggests one interest rate increase possibly next month may be enough to bring the united states or u.s. rates to a neutral setting. bullard also says the rise in inflation expectations is a good thing from the fed's point of view. he thinks growth will be impacted in 2018 to 2020 by plans for infrastructure spending and tax and regulation changes. joining us to discuss more about the fed's impact is joe lav lavorgen. thanks for joining us. >> my pleasure. >> you already boosted some growth estimates based on proposed policies from the president-elect trump, you think you have enough to work with at this point ahead of his inauguration? >> i do. the way i look at it, the fact that the president-elect has the congress in full form, which is unusual for an incoming republican. it will allow him to do things he might not otherwise do we have the infrastructure, also defense spending, which i would argue defense spending has a multiplier. more importantly significa

. >> one of the things jim bullard told me, st.ouis fed president, is that tax cuts, fiscal stimulus, and reduced regulations will have a faster affect. a shorter to medium effect whereas trade will be a longer-term drag. not felt immediately. where do you think investors should go first to take advantage of short-term gains fiscalx cuts and stimulus? >> we have been overweighting u.s. equities and overweighting high-grade bonds like the 10-year. you can stick with that now. not because necessarily that, again, the policies are going to innge that much but because particular, u.s. earnings look like they are going to be improving. only because the commodity trade is unlikely to fall apart like idid last year. we are starting to see that earnings growth pickup in the united states and that is a factor under our bullish call on the u.s. many of theso companies from the u.s. and on the ftse get earnings from overseas. are we going to see european multinationals post better earnings as the u.s. economy picks up? >> well i think there a

jim bullard is joining us with his take.the fact that we are in this low interest rate regime and make monetary policy appropriate. that is why we have called for not too many rate increases. it is possible you switch to some kind of higher real interest regime rate later. if that happens than we would have to change monetary policy at that point. expansion comes to fruition and boost production and if selling more government returns, youp the were talking earlier about the negative real return on one-year government paper at 135 -- -135. low compared to what it was historically. what exactly is driving that is the subject of research. for purposes of thinking about two pointwo years or five years, our approach is that probably that will continue going forward. we will still see slow productivity growth. fiscal change fiscal initiatives might help productivity go higher but we will see. as this thing develops. there is a lot of ifs in your statements, we are very early on. willto know if any of that come. >> do you see the r

louis fed president jim bullard is in london today speaking at a ubs conference. he suggests that one interest rate increase, possibly next month, may be enough to bring u.s. rates to a neutral setting. >>> snapchat confidentially filing for an ipo. the messaging app is expect god public as soon as march. the company could be valued between 20 billion and 25 billion making it the largest u.s. tech ipo since facebook's 2012 debut. >>> couple stocks to watch, agilent posting better than expected earnings in revenue. the lab equipmentmaker is citing post equipment uncertainty. >>> and eu antitrust regulators are expected to give clearance to abbott lab's $25 billion bid for st. jude medical. this coming according to reuters. the european commission is due to make a decision by next wednesday. >>> wall disney upgraded to buy from hold. the price target is $112. the share sitting at about $99. square saying that jack dorsey who is on the board of disney, entered into a stock trading plan to sell shares of the company over the next 12 months. the plan was finalized in a