you are seeing a broader set of price increases to make jim bullard's point for him.han: thank you. jim bullard making the point the fed might have to move faster if the fomc -- if inflation persists. tom: gregory daco joins us. you take the line this is not runaway inflation. we just had on francisco blanche of bank of america talk you about $120 barrels of oil. i extrapolated out to a low level of $4.77 where many in america would pay over five dollars a gallon for gas. how is that not inflation of the runaway kind? gregory: if you look at the broad inflationary dynamic, they remain procyclical. that is the key element. if you look at the decomposition of inflation in terms of cyclical and a cyclical components, we still of inflation reacting to strong demand. we coined the term messy inflation dynamics. moderating inflation with sticky supply driven inflation. that means you have an environment in which you are seeing strong demand and supply gradually responding to the strong demand. that is leading to sticky supply pressures and leading to sticky inflation. we do

jim bullard was talking about ending the taper in the first quarter. is that feasible to you? dr.a: in terms of accelerating the process, absolutely. the fed would need to see evidence there is gained momentum. the realized pathway of the data is really going to drive the monthly reduction of the asset purchase side. as far as left off, i think the fed is chasing a delicate balance. they want to control inflation, they want to keep expectations in check. at the same time, they do not want to undermine the recovery. they do not want to pull the rug from out of the recovery. likely, a slower step up, getting us to a cycle peak, maybe 2%, 2.5%. tom: one final question. you have a core gdp equation, differentials about that with the scope of consumer, the variability, the dependence. you mentioned government tapering down. tell me about the dynamic of x minus m. is it predictable, or is exports-imports a total mystery? dr. piegza: i think it will be a wildcard and it will continue to cause a tremendous amount of volatility in terms of forecasts. if the consumer remain solid, there is

jim bullard will be joining us on "bloomberg surveillance" at 8:45 a.m. with michael mckee to talk about what their dynamic is to determine whether they should end their bond purchases more quickly and whether they should start to talk about raising rates. 10:00 a.m. we get a dump of data. we get you a september business inventories, as well as the housing market index. how much do we see that momentum continue at a time when prices are high and a lot of these builders are trying to build for the lower income sectors? 2:20 5 p.m., president biden will speak on his bipartisan infrastructure law from woodstock, new hampshire. he will also talk about trying to push forward the social spending. a lot of this was trying to shore up supply chain issues. they will be accepting competitive grant applications to get that money out quickly. not expected to ease some of the constraints in the near term. jonathan: let's get the conversation started with david leibovitz -- with david lebovitz, global market strategist at jp morgan. david: it is difficult to see how at

louis fed president jim bullard calling for more hawkish central bank policy to ease price pressures. haslinda: and all those themes, yvonne, being discussed here at the new economy forum. and we kicked off possibly, you know, an in-person conference for a lot of people for the first time in about two years. of course, discussions along the lines of finance, trade, health, and of course we have climate as well on the back of that cop 26 meeting which they had back in glasgow. just in a moment we will be speaking to the australian minister for tried, tournament and investment dan tehan, accor chairman sebastien bazin, trip.com group c.e.o. jane sun and nyse president stacy cunningham. yvonne, it's going to be a jam packed show. for now, chinese vice premier wing qishan opened up the forum saying the cent will continue to open its markets to foreign investors. >> china cannot develop in isolation of the world. and nor can the world develop without china. china will not waver in its resolve to deepen reform and it's been opening up. haslinda: and i think that was the theme of the vice pr

potential inflationary pressures, but no one is saying take action now, with the exception perhaps of jim bullarda lot of people shrug that off as an outlier opinion. jonathan: have you noticed where the bias in coverages? a lot of people are leaning to the coverage we get from the so-called hawks. lisa: it is because people want to see dissent and they want to see response to inflation or pressures that seem to be fulfilling every box of fed chair jay powell that indicate stickier inflation. jonathan: what will it take to change the minds of the others? right now, a clinic on why you shouldn't be optimistic on the index level of this market with dan skellie -- with dan skelly, head of market strategy at morgan stanley. walk us through the path down towards 4400 on the s&p. dan: sure, and thank you for having me. we think risk-reward at the index level is unexciting at this point, and the pathway to that 4400 year-end target is mostly driven by multiple contraction. this is a call we had in the second half of 2021. admittedly it did not play out as we had forecasted. however, we are sticking with

jim bullard spoke to bloomberg earlier on this leadership story we are all focusing on over at the fed. >> no matter how this comes out, if there is a lot of continuity, both of these players have long track records at the fed, so certainly is a big committee. people have to keep that in mind , and there's a lot of experience on the committee, so i think we would see continuity. guy: we don't know what is going to happen. if you read through the sharad brown statement, he's not even tear a decision has been made. let's go to the heart of the matter. bloomberg washington correspondent annmarie hordern outside the white house with the latest. is there any latest? annmarie: there's not, but to your point from senator brown, if i could bring you the full quote, he says, "i hear it is a minute. i am not going to speculate who i think it might be. i am going to speculate a decision has been made, but i'm not even sure on that," so i'm not sure he is a good timeline for whether he will reappoint jay powell to stay in that top spot or potentially elevate governor brainard. what we do know is t

i was thinking back on this, carl, i believe it was jim bullard over the years has done this he kindthrew out a, you know, a fire bomb by talking about this idea that maybe the fed was doing more harm than good months ago. and i'm hearing gradually this idea maybe working its way to the center of the committee is maybe why in response to the inflation problem they're talking about an accelerated taper. >> okay. to your point, steve, i think yellen is discussing supply chain right now. let's listen in. >> ships waiting for many days to be able to off load their containers they have agreed to remain open 24/7, which they're now doing. and also the administration has worked with major retailers that were leaving containers for long periods of time on the docks without picking them up to make sure that they begin to expedite movement of those containers away from the ports. in other areas in savannah, the president has worked to establish locations away from the ports where containers could be brought, moved and deposited to create more room at the docks to keep cargo moving and so there

jim bullard is penciling in rate increases for 2022.ident does not expect any rise before tapering is complete. fed governor from the central bank will step down should this has left president biden another vacancy to fill. he joined the board in 2017. his governor term runs to january of 2032. traditionally fed officials depart once their leadership roles end. china's central bank says it will provide cheap funding to banks working toward reducing carbon emissions. the pboc will offer financial institutions a discount if the money is used to help china energy transition to the central bank will require a public disclosure of the use of the loans. singapore is easing some tough covid measures put in place more than a month ago to tackle a spike in cases. stating from wednesday, five people at the same residence will be able to dine at the same restaurant live music performances are still banned. singapore is looking to resume sports for the vaccinated. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more th