steve liesman joins us. >> we're pleased to welcome jim bullard. hanks for having me here. >> get l it me get right to it, president bullard. following your remarks last week, which made a turn last week, was there a correct interpretation of what you were saying >> yeah, steve as you know, we got the hotz cpi report last thursday, i guess, and i think my interpretation was not so much that report alone but the last four reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the u.s. economy, so i shaded up my position to say i'd like to see a move of 100% on the policy rate by july 1 i said i would defer to the chair exactly how to go about that, and he's very good at managing the committee and everything else that goes with this but i do think we need to front load more of our planned removal of accommodation than we would have previously. this is a lot of inflation these are numbers that alan greenspan that never saw they haven't occurred in 40 years. so our credibility is on the line hero, and we do have

matt: it is not a surprise to hear a hawkish tone from jim bullard.hat happens when the next that official, one who is more dovish, comes out and says we are not doing 50 basis points at our first meeting back. yelena: the markets will move on that. i think that that is seriously considering what they are going to do at liftoff. they are data dependent, and the data is telling us that things are moving in the wrong direction in terms of inflation. the january report exceeded expectations. it was concentrated in that only certain things that could be omicron related, but we will see inflation continuing to push higher in the services sector, driven by reopening of the economy. we still see a lot of price pressure in the goods sector. it is not updating as much as we would like it to. matt: so it is not terribly transitory is what you are saying. what do we see at the end of the year? yelena: there will be some transitory components that. we do expect inflation to peak in february actually, so we expected to go even higher in february and then moderatin

the head of restaurant operator black sheep will be with us. ♪ vonnie: saint was fed president jim bullardinterest rates by a full percentage point in the start of july. bullard says u.s. inflation running at its hottest in four decades requires a big response. however, he is undecided on the first hike in march. traders are now pricing in six hikes this year with a more than 50% chance rates will be raised 50 basis points next month. opec says recovery in global oil demand could surpass the forecast this year, as the rebound in economic activity and travel gathers pace. the cartel says global fuel use could grow by more than 4.2 million barrels a day that it is currently projecting for 2022. any additional bumps in oil demand could strain opec, with several members struggling to meet current output targets. sources say the u.s. state department has approved the potential sale of fighter jets to indonesia. it could include up to 36 new boeing aircrafts at a cost of about $14 billion for the jets and related equipment. u.s. congress will review and probably approve the sale within 30 days,

jim bullard supports raising interest rates by a full percentage point by july.he said u.s. inflation is the hottest in four decades and requires a big response. he is undecided on the size of the first hike. traders are pricing in six hikes, with a 50% chance that rates will be raised 50 points next month. china once debt managers to rein financial risks at smaller banks. regulator studied measures for the firms earlier this week, asking them to work with companies to form china's financial industry. excuse me. sources say officials want increases for real estate developers, including buying soured loans. researchers in hong kong say daily covid deaths could near 1000 by mid june. that is if more containment strategies are not taken. mitigation measures are needed to cut infection rates by 85%. the university of hong kong is urging officials to consider a full lockdown fist of the city. -- lockdown for the city. the data has not been published. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in mor

>> what's next, then we've got jim bullard on squau"squaw box" at 8:30 tomorrow morning. u probably won't answer because you're close to the fed governors. is it bostic, is it bullard? obviously powell but outside of that who should we be paying the most attention to besides liesman? >> that's actually a good question because over the years i've been covering this it's pretty easy to say when there's some disagreement, some confusion on the committee you listen to the chairman after that you listen to the vice chair over the years i've heard if the chair isn't talking and there's something to be said the vice chair may come out and give a speech that kind of curtain raises the comments of the chairman listen very carefully to that. the other way to do this, brian, is to separate folks out into where they kind of generally stand and pick a couple in the middle who are -- the ones who are the fulcrum of the compromise that will be put together in this case mary daily she was very, very dovish and she's come a long way i'd wait for the chairman. maybe he'll clear things up in

louis fed president jim bullard this morning. steve. >> yeah, david, good morning st.aggressive series of the rate hikes in the cnbc exclusive interview this morning, arguing that tfed has lot of work to do and ought to get going >> we need to front load of our planned removal of accommodation than we would have previously. we have been surprised to the upside on inflation. this is a lot of inflation in the u.s. economy, 7.5% on the headline cpi these are numbers that alan greenspan never saw, haven't occurred in 40 years so our credibility is on the line here. >> among other comments he said an invasion of ukraine is not a big concern for the u.s. economy. he supports using the balance sheet to tsypin the curve and wants to get going with that runoff in the second quarter earlier some colleagues says wage inflation could boost consumer inflation in the coming months but the unemployment rate could be below 3%. that up beat economic outlook, another side to his view on rate hikes that markets may not appreciate he believes that aggressive rate moves by the fed won't be

hawkish comments from jim bullard sending the market lower.ng close to the lows of the session let's look at what's driving the action, mike >> yeah, as you mentioned there, st. louis fed president jim bullard said he now favors a full percentage point of rate increases by july 1st. the fastest pace of inflation since 1982 treasury yields spiked higher on that news with the ten-year yiel

was farmer jim or somebody said i think there are more so i'm not so sure that you'll see what jim bullard will be talking about today. i just don't see that. i don't think they'll go that direction just yet >> jim, you've been a skeptic, right? you've certainly been playing towards the low end of hikes and some of the things i see you doing in the market are interesting. marathon petroleum you've held it for a long time you took the profits so you're getting out now. does that say anything about the kind of volatility that you think we could have in the weeks and perhaps months ahead that's a real he good question scott, inherent in a rate hike cycle is the idea that the participation trophy way of investing goes away. now stock picking really matters and all of us who are security analysts have been waiting for this, and it's driven us crazy the way faang and large cap growth has performed in the seven years and marathon petroleum, i think from the bottom of the recession is up 250%, well up by the s&p way up with the xle which is up 150% and marathon petroleum has given everything from

hawkish comments from jim bullard sending the market lower. we're sitting close to the lows of the session let's look at what's driving the action, mike >> yeah, as you mentioned there, st. louis fed president jim bullard said he now favors a full percentage point of rate increases by july 1st. the fastest pace of inflation since 1982 treasury yields spiked higher on that news with the ten-year yield moving above 2% for the first time since 2019 and we're seeing more big single stock moves. disney, data dog, and twilio are popping, while pepsi and affirm pull back. 59 minutes to go in the session. the s&p 500 at the lows for the day just about >> coming up in today's show, we'll get the white house response to the inflation print when we're joined by brian deese. plus, uber reverses the stock giving up itspost earnings pop during today's investor day presentation we'll hear from the ceo and meantime, let's focus on the big stories we're watching steve liesman has more on the bullard comments about rate hikes that sent a shiver through the mark

can we begin to frame out what jim bullard talked about of a re-percent to 4% gdp?ore gloomy statistics that they drift away with these numbers? mike: they don't. well it stays on a table -- the table as a possibility because we do not know what is going on with ukraine and how it will play out. for the fourth quarter, we are going in with straight -- first quarter we are going in with strength. the idea we will see a drop in gdp and growth going forward does not seem to be worn out by the data at this point. jonathan: thank you as always, breaking down economic data. a few more big prince to come, cpi in america on march 10. before that, a payrolls report before march 16 and the fed decision. turning is now the chief u.s. economist. any reason to believe the latest developments, geopolitically, with war back in europe, closed down the pace of rate hikes the federal reserve? >> as you have indicated before, it depends a lot on how the data unfolds. we are clearly going to have it in march whether or not we have the situation in ukraine continuing, whether we have en

louis fed president jim bullard says the fmoc needs to raise interest rates.aking to cnbc, he urged that rates should be raised by 100 basis points by july. another said jobs and inflation data show it is time to standardize monetary policy. retail inflation in india reached the tolerance limit for the first time in seven months. consumer prices rose 6.01%, driven by higher food and fuel costs. it is unlikely -- the are b.i. is likely to raise interest rates. indonesia may list all quarantine requirements for inbound travelers in april as fatality rates and hospitalizations remain under control. officials say the required quarantine period would be reduced to three days from five for incoming passengers who have received a booster shot. u.s. investigators said to be probing block trading on wall street. according to dow jones regulators are seeing if there were tipped hedge fund plans ahead of largest sales. there were subpoenas to morgan stanley, goldman sachs and hedge funds, asking for trading records and information about communications. global news, 24 ho

kailey: i wonder if you agree with that characteristic, jim bullard having to convince his colleagues but is the market convinced or do we have further to go to recognize that fact? victor: i think the market does feel that bullard, even speaking for himself, is maybe closer to what the future majority position will be. one thing to keep in mind is a few years ago, bullard was the dove. he was not able to bring the majority of the conversation to his view in terms of more monetary stimulus. now he is on the other side of the coin trying to do the same thing. i would be cautious about just his view itself. i think it is just his view and he is entitled to his view as marcus disagrees with me. there are people on the fence who disagree. rising inflation and both are not necessarily a binary situation. actually can have slower growth and higher prices. they don't have to be something in the opposite direction. that is probably one of the biggest worries of the fed, potentially losing handle on inflation. guy: let's wrap things up with where you started, which if you haven't hedged it is

louis fed chief jim bullard says the central bank may need to overshoot the neutral rates to bring down inflation. he is pulling again for the 100 basis point hike by july. let's bring in our chief asia economics correspondent enda curran. we know the rhetoric from bullard, but this time he is doubling down. not just on 100 basis points, but go beyond neutral. if you can define neutral, that would be a good starting point. >> exactly. he is saying neutral is around 2%. it is a hawkish call. in the near time he's pushing for at least 100 basis points of hikes by july. we also have comments from the cleveland fed president, in the hawkish camp. not in the same terms as bullard, but she is saying yes, we need to hike rates. comments were backed up by minutes from the fed which noted in january they are locked in for march. they will have to work quite hard. another day, another round of hawkish pressure from the fed. >> and the red a master adding fuel to that narrative. thank you very much. great contribution. our chief asia economics correspondent. reportedly investigating morgan stanley

jim bullard is in the 50 basis point camp. he says it will be dependent on the data and whether the bed will raise 25 or 50. jonathan: thank you, stunning pictures coming out of russia. to fee that just to see that security council meeting and everybody sitting 20 feet in front of him taking to the podium to tell the president what they thought about the situation. tom: including dmitry medvedev. let's get to this quickly because we have a wonderful wall street guest. this is the continued image -- imagery and you have to get out the map. this is between the baltic sea and the caspian sea. the distance from yurovan north to darabs is very short and that's where mr. putin learned a lot of lessons. jonathan: let's bring in the head of capital markets for cities private bank. what changed over the weekend if anything? >> it seems like what changed is that now investors are dealing with what is a trifecta of concerns and challenges. the first one is the fundamental shift of the liquidity regime which we know about and the fed is r

how much is she pushing back on jim bullard's concern after the cpi report, how much was she trying to say we had to be balanced at a time when risks are on both sides and you have people saying we are moving too fast and we will break the market? jonathan: let's get to the bond markets. we can do that with subadra rajappa, head of u.s. rates strategy at socgen. i do not expect you to have a crystal ball on things associated with geopolitics. what i would like is to try to understand how negative development inside ukraine would influence central bank policy from your perspective. how do you think it would? subadra: it does play a factor because of the fact that you do not want to be seen as aggressively hawkish or raising rates too fast in a time when geopolitics is a key concern. the key indicator is the 2's/10's part of the curve around 40 basis points. any hawkish -- i've said this many times before. the last thing the fed wants to do is too aggressively flatten out the curve and lead to a recession. there is a lot baked into the bond market right now. we are pricing in six rate hi

of the jim bullard headlines, may be a recapitulation of what he said to steve matthews on cnbc. unning headline is on growth and growth being the debate today. on james bullard of st. louis, a clearing of covid, and 3.5% to 4% wrote real gdp for this year, that is quite a number. lisa: it is quite a number. this is for the bulls. they see support for this kind of idea. also interesting to see him talk about the balance sheet which is what people are tried to get information on, saying it could be used to steepen the yield curve. what we heard from esther george on friday. how much we going to start to see the federal reserve pair back there $9 trillion balance sheet in order to avoid this yield curve conversion that semi people are worried about? jonathan: the markets -- tom: the markets moving from 31 down to 28. futures a -16, dow futures -96. we have gone from deep red to green and we have come back to red and green on the screen. i want to point out curve flattening with its explosive two year yield. some of the things i look out, this is the bramo worry board. lisa: pulled o

however, we only heard really from jim bullard, so we will need to hear from others to see if they agreef that is likely to happen. but we could get another tantrum today in the markets as we did the last time the minutes were released because if there is a lot of concern expressed or if they talk about 50 basis points in the minutes, people will read into that, i think, for what they might do in march. guy: and it will be interesting to see what the market ultimately extrapolates. what is your take on this? kathryn: i think if russia does invade ukraine, anything to derail this said that i think has been behind the curve, they should probably go 50. but as i say, the russia issue could take that off the table. kailey: and speaking of some of the other risks that are out there other than central banks and geopolitics, where do you feel comfortable putting your money? kathryn: i think we have to remain overweight equities, especially in rate sensitive and inflation sensitive sectors. that has been my view for the past year. we have been talking about inflation being the primary risk for m

we had a few fed officials yesterday giving divergent views between jim bullard and mary daly.obs report will be important if that shows weakening. the next cpi report, we expect to see higher year on year rates than today. i don't think anything is going to look better by the march meeting. i think it will put additional pressure on the fed. if we enter that blackout period, the real question for the fed is do they want to surprise in the dovish direction to meet inflation at record high levels? my sense is note and that they will want to deliver on that expectation and reposition themselves better to respond to the inflation outlook. gina: we have been talking about the balance sheet this morning. it has been terrifying to think about the equity market contending with much greater activities from the fed than anyone was anticipating having come into this year. what is your outlook for growth? we have talked a lot about the fed and what the fed will do to contain inflation, maybe suppressed growth expectations, but the offset for the equity market -- what is your outlook for g

jim bullard out of the st. louis fed is reiterating he wants to front road rate hikes. 100 basis points higher by july. we are back above 2% on the 10 year yield. nearly seven basis points. even more on the short end. the two year moving us higher. 4080 is where we sit. that is the flattest of the curve has been back to december 2019. guy: let's talk about what is behind some of the moves we are seeing. ukraine geopolitical risk, uncertainty, huge factors in the market. the russian president vladimir putin countering u.s. warnings russia may invade ukraine within days. he staged a series of televised meetings with his foreign and defense ministers earlier on. not sure if that was a meeting or a meeting or long-distance conference call they are having. they were talking about the idea they continue to make efforts to find a diplomatic resolution. olaf scholz is in ukraine today. he travels to meet with the tomorrow. let's get an update on what we need to know with both of these meetings. maria tadeo joins us wit

louis fed president jim bullard at 11:00 a.m.nd cleveland fed president loretta mester speaking at 5:00 p.m. there's so much uncertainty, highlighted by that options volatility move index that measures the implied volatility in treasury yields, which is the highest level going back to march 2020. jonathan: just to return to the walmart numbers combat first look, the numbers looked decent. the ceo -- numbers, at first look, the numbers looked decent. then that line on supply chain costs. we have navigated higher supply chain costs well. tom: i do agree, the forward view of walmart is sometimes reluctant to do that over the 20, 30, 40 years, but they've got to do a forward view. that will be important. walmart has 2.2 million. the size is unimaginable. jonathan: but what about the change at amazon? that has been a big story. that has increased so much over the last few years. tom: and amazon is in a completely different framework. retail to retail here is complete the wrong in comparing the two, but nevertheless, as mike mckee ment

louis fed president jim bullard also interested in 50.e settled as we get more data between now and the 16th. the data probably aren't going to look good. take a look at this chart. it shows you where gasoline prices are. take a look in the upper left-hand corner. this is the last five years of gasoline prices at this time of year. you can see how much higher they are right now. if prices of oil status hi, we are going to see some real moves in gasoline that will affect people and the economy and put pressure on the fed. the one thing that is in the markets' favor is that oil prices seem to be coming down because they have exempted oil from russian sanctions. that has the markets believing 25 is probably the best case, so we now see in the fed funds futures market that they are pricing in about 1.2 moves. that is below the idea of two at this -- of two at this point, even though we are given these high inflation readings. kailey: thank you so much. let's get more on the headwinds the global economy. nick benbrook, wells fargo internationa

a lot of fed speak this week, today, jim bullard did not back off his hawkish take from last week itts for the fed story because where the two-year is trading, where the yield curve is, it's unclear whether we have more to go in that process of trying to absorb what the fed is about to do. >> not a great session, but well off the session ows. the nasdaq just positive the s&p only down 0.3% the dow only down .4%. we bottomed around 2:00 p.m., and though it's been bumpy, steadily improved over the last two hours of the trading session. two sectors in the green, consumer discretionary and communication services the other nine in the red with energy comfortably the worst performer down more than 2%. health care and financials both down more than 1%. though oil is higher, up 2% itself as are commodities like cold, up 1.7% the ten-year ending at 2%, just crossing above it. higher by 0.3% as the bell goes, the nasdaq just dipping into the red, but essentially flat the s&p down 0.4%. >> thought we were going to get a positive close on the nasdaq rebound days for stocks. i'm sara eisen here w

that it is suggesting the fed does not have the policy room in order to raise 50 basis points as a jim bullard suggested by half a percentage point. the difference between those two yields is underneath that level that is remarkable to see things move as quickly as they are. and republicans are anticipating inflation's going to six-point to percent. whereas democrats expected to rise by three-point to percent. we have never seen a partisan divide when it comes to something like inflation as we are seeing. we are in a midterm election year. politicians are going to maintain pressure on the federal reserve to do something before march 16. >> of course the old saying be careful what you ask for it. what you wish for in that particular case. everyone's got strong opinions about it he did pivot on transitory stuck to this theory of heard every economist say this the cure for high prices as high prices. how can that has not worked or are we in the middle of that? could we indeed be in the midst of peaking inflation. if that is the case do you want the fed to overreact now? >> again, charles use the

it began with jim bullard and the governor also talked about this he's from st. louis. kansas city, i think you can put in the midwest and we have yet to here from georgia about this. this is a contingent on the committee, for sure who wants to use the balance sheet, sell more on the long end, put pressure there, let rates rise there, and perhaps do fewer rate hikes on the short end, and also be careful not to be flattening the curve. that said, afterester george said that again yesterday, i looked at how chair powell responded, and all i can say is he seems to be agnostic over the issue. at the time he spoke, the spread between the 2-10 was 75 basis points it's since fallen to around 60 and change or so so he didn't have to deal with it i don't know that that's his preference it was not the impression i got from listening to it i think, though, and i think maybe bill would answer this better i don't think the fed wants to get involved in yield curve engineering, because it's just a matter of massive uncertainty for the fed. >> right, but maybe let me put the question d

peter, we heard from jim bullard. we heard that the market's pricing in the fed's going to go 50 in march. we get one more cpi print before that. do you expect the data to show that inflation is easing a bit where the fed could say, okay, maybe we go 25? >> well, first of all, inflation is going to get a lot worse. and if we still measured inflation the way we did 40 years ago, it'd be 15%, not 7.5%. and the rate hikes that they've proposed are completely inadequate. in fact, the fed is intending to pursue an accommodative monetary policy. even if they raise interest rates to 1 or 2%, that is highly accommodative. that's the same type of interest rates they had when inflation was below 2%. you've got inflation at 7.5% even the way they measure it and rising. the only way to put out this fire is to have positive, real interest rates. the fed if needs to get above the inflation rate. we're not even going to get close. so they're going to pour gasoline on the fire, and so the entire time the fed is inching up rates, infl

jim bullard says the central bank may need to raise rates above 2% to curb inflation.king in new york, he called for the fed to hike by 100 basis points by july and start runoff in the second quarter. he said policymakers need to be prepared for the risks and that high prices may persist. >> if you want to pull downward on inflation coming up to go to neutral and beyond neutral, and that is a major concern of mine. we are not really in a position to do that right now, but we have to get into position to do that at some point in case inflation does not moderate. >> japan is rolling back its stringent border rules. new foreign entrants not including tours will be admitted up to 5000 per day. japan has rescinded new flight bookings. they must balance public support for entry bans against the needs of businesses. a business innocenti has lashed out at the spy agency after it issued a report accusing beijing of course of foreign policy. estonia's foreign intelligence service says china use strong-armed, underhanded diplomacy during the pandemic, but also singling out critic

louis fed president jim bullard for three by july.have made significant progress on reviving the 2015 iran nuclear agreement. talks in vienna entered their final stage. assessments of the current situation are positive. russia has tended to share more upbeat outlook on negotiations compared to western powers. pakistan is warning that afghanistan could descend into chaos, threatening regional stability. the prime minister pointed to the u.s. refusal to recognize the taliban coupled with sanctions and frozen assets. foreign governments have no choice but to try to work with the group to avert a larger crisis. pakistan has seen more militant tax -- attacks since the taliban took control of afghanistan. chinese officials arrested a former development bank official for alleged corruption. documents show charges against him include accepting bribes and issuing loans illegally. he was placed under investigation in september before being expelled from the communist party. beijing is conducting a campaign that has ensnared 20 finish -- officia

louis fed president jim bullard says the fomc needs to move forward plans to raise interest rates tots inflation tightening credibility. willard -- bullard called on policymakers to react to inflation data and repeated his view that rates should be raised by 100 basis points since -- points by july. thomas mark and says jobs and inflation data shows it would be timely to start normalizing monetary policy. ecb president christine lagarde says there is no rush to remove stimulus. lagarde highlighted the limits of the bank's powers at this time a volatile crisis saying it needs to be open about what is feasible. she turned more hawkish after the ecb let -- met last month. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. >> we will be looking into the latest earnings highlights of india's biggest -- our interview is next. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the markets in mumbai get underway. looking here at that futures contract which is higher looking at a positive start for india

louis fed president jim bullard has altered your view how aggressive the tightening might be this yearl, thank you for having me on we certainly think the fed is not in a mood to skip a meeting so we think they will have a succession of policy actions and we think they raise the funds 25 basis points, in each of the march, may, and june meetings, we think they announce balance sheet runoff at the june meeting, so it does seem like they neat need to get going and i think front loading a policy response makes a lot of sense to me and from my perspective i don't think a 50 basis points hike is needed certainly the markets have opened a door for that and the committee will debate whether or not they should walk through it. but i think that is probably too aggressive and may be a little viewed, views as a little panicky at this point, so i think they need to get moving and they need to be regular, and i don't think they need to come out of the gate with a large 50 basis points increase. >> and obviously, we're going to get more numbers before there is a meeting, a policy meeting, but do you

speaking of the fed, we have ain afte an interview coming up with jim b bullard. >>> and the rams beatls. we will tell you which companies had an impact. it is monday, february 14th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm rebecca quick along with with mike santoli and andrew from outside sofi stadium. we will get to the game in a few minutes. andrew, good morning tell us what guests you have coming

still markets have to contend with new comments from like jim bullard, he said that we are at more riskation and that this inflation could get out of control. all right. fresh fed speak coming up today with charles evans and also christopher waller they will comment on this main paper titled some benefits and risks of a hot economy and then we get john williams, the top official that we have not heard from in a bit. he will deliver his economic outlook. and then later, fed governor brainard will talk about essential back digital currency. the scorecard, a slight victory if you look at the markets for those advocating a more modest approach to tightening though many observers still see it as a live possibility >> steve liesman, thank you for bringing us the latest going to be a busy day for you we look forward to those headlines. >>> we turn to the broader markets, the dow coming off its worst day since november you can see trading slightly higher this morning as is the s&p, nasdaq though basically flat under a little bit of pressure so joining us now, jim paulson and also manesh. gentle

wednesday, you'll remember, before we got that sell-off related to what jim bullard had to say, we werem here i think we're sort of doing the work and chopping it out in this corrective zone. definitely a positive that we stayed out of the hole from the late january lows, and as i said, i think people have, you know, the bulls have gotten a little demoralized i think you saw that in the bank of america fund manager survey today. that's probably insulation of further immediate downside because people have grown pretty defensive in the short term. >> we're still in earning seasons. you expect 8% to 10% growth on earnings what are you getting from the guidance from companies? is the guidance as good as the reports? what does that tell us about where stocks go? >> guidance coming out of q4 earnings season was actually quite murky. what that led to was 2022 looking more like a back end loaded earnings year that is an issue we're going to come out in the first half with multiple rate hikes. we're going to watch what inflation does the upside would be that inflation starts to settle, the fed c

well, if you're right, and i suspect you may be right, i mean, jim bullard is the guy who should be drivingderstands the full consequences of this. this number today was twice expectations. stuart: yep. >> twice expectations. stuart: huge. >> so that's from it interesting. but will they? here's one of my concerns. the biden administration's nominating people to the federal reserve board who are more interested in climate change, in woke social policies, in african-american slavery reparations, i mean, they don't care about inflation. these people have written about other things. and i just question the fed's ability to move ahead. stuart: this this is the new monetary theory, isn't it? which says -- >> yeah. stuart: -- print as much money as you like to pay for government programs, it doesn't have any impact. this is absolute nonsense. i mean, i'm not from that school and neither are you, larry. >> nope if, i'm not from that school. modern monetary theory -- [laughter] has had a tough couple years. it hasn't really delivered. the target is 2, 2%, okay? you're running almost 10. i mean, the

louis fed president jim bullard continued his hawkish comments and raised them up saying we're at moreontrol but now the cleveland fed president last night was agreeing rates need to rise more aggressively than they have in past, but she used the fed's new code word for suggesting she wanted to hold back on the 50 basis points at first. she had, quote, if i assess that inflation is not going to moderate as expected then i'd support moving the combination at a faster pace over the second half of the year >> so the scorecard this week a slightict victory for those advocating the more moderate approach and of course geopolitical concerns over ukraine. the probability decline a bit though many fed observers still see it, joe, as a live possibility. >> and the possibility to handicap 50 basis points some point. what do you think? >> i think at some point is possible there's still an argument there's a bunch of different things in the economy that are going to kind of work themselves out to help bring down inflation. whether it brings down inflation towards the fed target close enough or fas

thursday, housing starts and permits, speeches by jim bullard and will he tone down his rhetoric andget walmart earnings that day and on friday, some housing date sales of previously-owned homes. i've been focused today on the price of oil we do have the lavrov comments but i think it's fascinating that all of this potential invasion talk, oil prices are down. stuart: well just a fraction. lauren: they did reach a seven- year high i understand that but investors are kind of just trying to figure out what exactly is going on. stuart: keep looking on the bright side for that energy price inflation by all means, monday morning why not. look whose here on a monday morning, the man himself jason k atz. jason, here we go. why should i invest in stocks while interest rates are going up, and russia and ukraine are hanging over everything, and tomorrow we've got producer price inflation numbers, why buy stocks now? >> look, recession risks are obviously elevated, but our base case is that covid cases continue to decline, and you're getting more workers back into the workforce and you get this

aggressively draining it here >> i thought it was interesting in the interview this morning with james bullard, where jim said i want to start moving on the paydowns fast, like, immediately. that's not what is priced in but could be an interesting add-on to the march meeting. you say we're going to stop reinvesting immediately. that's one way to be a little more hawkish without doing a 50 and keeping it 25. the other thing is he said something important. he said we should have a plan b so that if by the middle of the year the data are not coming in the way we'd like them to, we can begin to open up for the idea of asset sales. >> yeah. >> i think look, it's there. it's lurking jay powell did not take it off the table in either his testimony or his press conference testimony for renomination or press conference after the last one. i think that's the story of the next quarter to quarter and a half, kelly, how do they present the balance sheet? >> in the midst of this, i think it's worth going back to talk about why they need to move quickly at all when even the op ed the other day talked about the need for

graham, poor jim ukraine is longing, foot piece, your own is longing, a well president bullard, amanda lansky address as well. leaders are the munich security conference dominated by the threat of the russian attack on his country. ah, i am eddie. might a junior and you are welcome to the program. germany has issued an urgent advisory to its citizens in ukraine to leave the country as a threat of military action by russia continues to rise. foreign minister and on the not bad book told d w. what prompted the advice? i'm but i think we already brought in precautionary measures for german citizens in ukraine last week. i haven't yet. in the last 48 hours, we've seen false flag operations once again. they find used as a pretext by separatism to say that there is a further escalation about we stay up for now. introduce further measures to indicate that we are prepared for all until allen a. now, while russia claims that it is not seeking military conflict in ukraine, presidents potent supervise war, russia, calls shadowed military exercises in the company of bella, rouge, and leader, alexa

jim aryan. what happens now? >> it was not the just the cpi report. it was james bullard's reports later in the day.don't think someone off top of his head, someone on twitter posted, james bullard woke up and chose violence today. the market got pummeled. charles: [laughter] >> they're telling us very clearly, the cpi, people call it the contrived price index underestimates inflation, if that says there is inflation there must be a ton. they say they're serious about it. i wonder how serious they are in the face of declining stock prices. there is nothing yet in declining stock prices. i thought they were willing to with stand a 20% correction before they blink. but they're definitely telling us they're serious here. it is very interesting times. charles: ryan, you're serious and act serious, right? they will wait until march? i mean they didn't take any action today. instead to be able to jawbone the markets is one of the arrows in their quiver. certainly it is working today but are you happy with the way the fed is handling all of this? >> well you knew they were going to be behind the eight ball

jim bianco. let's start with you, victoria. as your call for this fed changed in the last 24 hours? victoria: it hasn't. i know there has been a shot with bullard coming out saying 50 by march, 100 by july. i don't think we should take what he says as gospel. other members have pushed back on that. i am starting to feel like i'm on an island. i still feel like we only get 25 basis point hike in march. anything the fed does in march not expect inflation this year. that will affect next year. you have policy which affects economic activity. economic activity affects the inflation component. what will affect inflation right now? not the march meeting, it's what happens with supply chains, rents, wages. we see the ism dropping. 40% of that was because supply delivery times were better than they have been. that is a positive for inflation to come down. new cars for the last nine months were moving higher, now they are flat. yes, you have wages, rent going higher. i have a college student in new york that i'm looking for an apartment for her. i understand rent is going higher. there is so much data in the next five weeks before that march meeting. i

i think the market has gotten a little bit ahead of itself because jim bullard, the st. louis said president, saying they should go aggressive. i think as a first step, it is very unlike the federal reserve, who looks to do things a little more gradually. guy: how do using the fed is tenting about the situation vis-a-vis ukraine? were there to be contact, where there to be fighting, assuming energy prices would go up sharply, but you would likely also see a demand destruction story, particularly in europe, and as a result of which, global demand in aggregate would likely fall. how would the fed manage that process? initially, demand would come down, but you could end up in a situation where energy prices were main elevated, therefore the inflationary impulse persists. how will the fed be thinking about how to manage that story? vincent: i think the fed would have to look at the energy situation as temporary. obviously they cannot price and that risk the way the markets can't really price and that risk. no one is going to be looking at this as an amp location for world wa