. >> we have jim o'sullivan here with us.ly turkey in focus have you had to ratchet around your models? is turkey a systemic worry now >> i don't think so. there's always out there with the markets. certainly the us m.s. markets he taken it in stride >> all these things depend more on what the economic effect of any single country is. it depends more on the markets and confidence >> if you had to rank the risks, is it china? tariffs? ecb or the u.s. fed? >> unemployment is low, still falling. >> you're saying inflation is a threat >> yes we'll get the cpi this morning they're still tame numbers, even if you look at the core cpi, it's running at 2.3% a year ago that number was 1.7 wage number, same story. still tame, but they're up the private sector eci wage number is at its fastest rate since 2008 tame numbers, but starting to move up. unemployment looks like it's trending down. obviously the fed is trying to slow down employment growth. we're getting 2200,000 a month n unemployment, and unemployment keeps falling. >> what a

mike enguilty lung 3.5 and jim o'sullivan 3.0 on to jobs, weaker than expected july report that is actually stronger than it looks 157 versus 190 with the estimate look at those powerful may and june revisions 59,000 to the upside average hourly wages a tick more, 0.3% than the estimate of 0.2%. and there were several one-off factors that might have biased the number lower one, toys "r" us layoffs of 32,000. that could have been a negative. low response rate to the survey, and a big perhaps seasonal decline in education we haven't seen a july like this in both private and public education services in a very long time. so here's where the jobs were. leisure and hospitality up 40,000, manufacturing 37, temporary help 28,000. construction, despite complaints we can't find construction workers, up 19,000 there's retail up just 7,000, perhaps lowered by the toys "r" us layoff. economists caution investors have to be wary. it could be the beginning of a trending and tariff troubles in the future could depress job growth take it altogether and most economists see little reason for the fed to alter

i want to give you one quos from jim o'sullivan nicely done, guys.d respond aggressively to a tariff-induced surge in inflation fearing the people would be able to extract much bigger wage gains in compensati compensation i think that's true, but i think to a point because i want to show you one other thing. and this is the ten-year inflation expectations it's one of the things the federal reserve uses to say are expectations getting out of control. this is from the ten-year tips market it's kind of flattish around 2%. the fed would get concerned if that number spikes so right now the answer to the wage question and inflation question is the fed is watching stuff like that to see are people's expectations of inflation getting out of control? if it did, that would increase the pace but not the number itself i'm done >> thank you >> you're welcome. >> it's lovely. >> was that all right, joe >> that was a good real reaction substantive. >> but was it interesting? >> substantive >> i think it's interesting. >> substantive >> it's leveled off at 2%. that'