here is president of -- jim paulson, chief investment strategist with wells capital management. good to see you. thanks so much for joining us. let me ask you about what happened in the economy. we had a report out this week from standard & poor's which says it's probably going to take about a half a percent, .6% out of gdp just as a result of the shutdown. what are you expecting? how much damage has already been done to the economy as a result of the shutdown and the threat of debt default? >> i think the half a percent cut, maria, is very reasonable in terms of the first round impact of what has happened with the shutdown. what it doesn't take into account is the loss of global investor confidence, the worry about this being repeated in early 2014. when you take that into account, i would suspect it is going to be about 1 percentage point per year for the next three or four years, so i think longer term the impact is much greater than the s&p's measurement in the short-term. >> jim, what do you think? we may very well get to do this all over again in just a few months. where d

now, did jim paulson in the last hour just said the fed doesn't matter.does matter, here's the taper test. remember we talked about a three-part taper test and let's see which ones are met. the first one is confidence in the economic outlook. funny thing's happened over the last quarter. we've ramped up growth, this is the macro economics tracking forecast, gdp is tracking 2.7%. unfortunately, the fourth quarter tracking 1.7%. built in some shutdown amount that we don't know about. there's uncertainty over that for the fed. job growth has been slowing at the adp, we're up at 190, now down to 130. i'd say the conditions not met. let's move on to number two here. and the second one is fiscal restraint. government funding debate in january, debt ceiling debate in february. i'd say conditions not met. 2 out of 3, we're not there yet. and then the final one, financial restraint, we have higher stock prices, we have lower yields. they removed yesterday a couple notes that said, you know what, we're concerned about it. looks like 25 basis points brought to you o

joining us now wells capital management jim paulson and s&p capital iq sam stowball. >> with all this other stuff where are you find something opportunities now? >> well, i think first thing i guess i would point out is the international markets, brian, have been outperforming the u.s. stock market now for the last couple months. i think that's going to continue. the currency, the u.s. currency against developed world markets as well as emerging markets are -- is now weakening and it's weakening even more today and that's giving excess returns to overseas. i think one of the best opportunities is to put a little more both in international developed and international emerging markets, relative to the domestic market. >> do you know -- to that point i saw a graphic on a different show earlier today on cnbc and it was talking about a guest that said the guest name, likes italy or europe because of political stability. and i thought to myself, i need a drink. because i don't -- i can't believe someone's like wow we're looking at europe now as some sort of model of political stability. >>

jim paulson writes from wells capital management, could we have a bit of an inflation scare in 2014. yellen will come in, perceived as a dove when the u.s. dollar is weak and falling, commodity prices may be showing signs of lifting again. on a radar of a possible problem next year. and john donaldson at hayward says the criticism of yellen is being soft on inflation is unfair. she's fully committed to the fed's dual mission. what opportunity has there been for her to talk tough on inflation over the past several years? kayla, you can read all about this on cnbc.com and see the full survey there including the call for qe to last through all of 2014. kayla? >> thanks, steve. we'll do that. and still ahead, the earnings squad swoops in with three big names to watch before they report. >> after the break, the president and ceo of td ameritrade is here. there he is. "street signs" is going to ask him if the individual investor is doubling down or getting out. fred thompson coming up. ♪ norfolk southern what's your function? ♪ hooking up the country helping business run ♪ ♪ build! we're i

let's bring in jim paulson with capital management and bob bauer. d morning, kelly. >>> all i heard last week, jim, all weekend is how eager investors are to buy the dip. where are the dip buyers today? >> i think they are lurking around the edge. i really do. people realize this could go lower. as time marches on toward the deadline, we might get lower. the good news is investors do realize, this is a two-way trade. it still has got huge odds of eventually being resolved and when it does, you are gonna have at least some rally in stock. i actually think, right now, kelly, because stocks aren't off that much, that the bigger change might be the bottom yields, might go up more rather than a big rally back up in stocks. i do think that the american psyche is in a better place. >> when you say the bond yields might go up, do you mean today or generally in the future? >> no, i mean on resolution. people are looking at how much stocks could rally on a resolution. i think the bigger rally might be in bond yields on a resolution. >> sure, sure. people are a

representative aircraft paulson, republican of minnesota, rob whitman, republican of virginia, frank lobiondo, republican of new jersey, randy forbes, republican of virginia, representative jim ger lock, and representative mike simpson, republican of idaho. 17. why is that significant? it takes only two or three more republican congressmen, republican congressmen to step up and say they will vote for the c.r. that we sent over from the senate to reopen the government of the united states of america. there are six republican congressmen in my state of illinois. i challenge all of them, join this group of your fellow colleagues and the democrats in the house who don't want to punish america and 800,000 federal workers. what's at stake here? it isn't just bragging rights about how this crisis ends. what's at stake is much more. it even goes beyond the life and death situation faced by hundreds at the national institutes of health. i'm still stunned by what i was told yesterday by senator feinstein. it's public knowledge, she announced it on the floor. 72%, 72% of the civilian work force in america's intelligence agencies have been furloughed. what do they do? well, i'll tell yo