. >> jim paulson joins us to talk more about the issues that are weighing on the markets and what they may mean for you and your investments. he's chief investment strategist with wells capital management. jim, welcome and happy new year to you. >> happy new year. >> we've been talking all day long about the strengthening dollar falling oil prices the greek concern about whether greece will stay in the eurozone and the euro currency but is something more fundamental going on with equities namely that there is a revaluation because prices had simply on a valuation basis gotten a little too high? >> i think there's some of that tyler. one of the reasons we're having such a violent market reaction here is just the vulnerability of the stock market as we came into this year. i mean look we had three years of straight up moves in the stock market and there was building complacency, calm and confidence about the future. in some sense the market was gearing for a gut check, if you will. on top of that valuations at about 18 times trailing earnings here in the united states are certainly no lo

joining us now post 9, jim paulson, chief investment strategist with wells capital management. >> goodning. >> oil is more important to this market than the fed at the moment. >> yeah. i think, myself i think the oil story certainly some people think it's a supply story, the united states independent, some think it's a demand story. i think it's both of those but mainly a dollar story. i think what -- if you look at a chart overlay of crude and the oil dollar, they're the same chart inversely. if you're thinking the dollar's going to peak, and i think one of the things that's going to happen this year crude is bottoming but the dollar's going to peak as well that changes a lot of dynamics. >> if you're right, what does that mean? >> well i certainly think it says a lot about international returns, you know investing away from the united states, for example, get the weak dollar repatriation back. but it also is going to influence the fed's decision and influence the inflation outlooking if you get a weak dollar and a pop in commodity prices in the country, particularly when wages come u

enough bonds to buy because of global quantitative easing, and it jives with what we heard from jim paulsonwells not long ago where he said, by the way, the median the typical strong is trading at a higher valuation than it was during the dotcom bubble because that was a tale of all tech stocks going haywire and everything else was normal. >> i talk to a lot of people that say there are a shortage of places to put your money. so where do you put them? you put them in u.s. bonds or put them in u.s. equities. and so that is helping to drive, you know, or at least in bonds that's what we're starting to see, where we're seeing the rally there, but as far as the stocks go, i think that's why you see some of those big moves. people see an opportunity to get in, they get in and they get out quickly. again, i will go back to the fact that there is a lack of conviction. there is too much uncertainty out there. we have until the end of february to figure out what happens with greece. certainly the fed's statement this week raised questions as to when they're going to raise rates, if they're going to

. >> want to ask you about something jim paulson at wells wrote about. looked at some work that i think ken french had done on the stock market and said one thing that is gift this time from the tech bubble if you will, the tech bubble overall market multiple was high because tech stocks was really high. what's happened this time around is the typical company, valuation is actually higher now than it was then. you just have a lot of low people dragging on the market. so it's just an interesting way it talk about valuation and how much we're strepped. does that worry you when you're talking about people getting into the stock market? >> no because if you look at historical number, sure, those numbers are higher than average, but if you look at the growth of earnings and the stability of companies, the cash they're sitting on, the opportunities for the next 5, 10 years are more than compensating for the risks. >> and you have much lower interest rates than we did back in the tech bubble and probably going lower. so that is pretty darn good for equities and