joining the roundtable is chief investment strategist jim paulson.i get to you i want to go to bed give us your overview for two or three years you're been chronicling how the great tenure might come to an end and so far it is following your script. give us a rundown. >> back in 2018 when people were feeling bearish and on edge, i had an idea that the yield curve would invert into thousand 19 and that would cause a bear market in 2020. one of the reasons i was not worried in 2018 despite the volatility. here we are now and we have the yield curve and there is the argument about whether the yield curve works or not. when you look at the data you see the economy has slowed and the leading indicator of the economy that has been doing their job in leading us. we seen them continue to weaken and unless they pick up we will see the economy go into recession in the market as a leading indicator as well and it will fall as a habit. >> that is pretty depressing but you have a more optimistic view on things will play out. why is bearish been wrong? >> i respec

joining the roundtable is chief investment strategist jim paulson.ou i want to go to bed give us your overview for two or three years you're been chronicling how the great tenure might come to an end and so far it is following your script. give us a rundown. >> back in 2018 when people were feeling bearish and on edge, i had an idea that the yield curve would invert into thousand 19 and that would cause a bear market in 2020. one of the reasons i was not worried in 2018 despite the volatility. here we are now and we have the yield curve and there is the argument about whether the yield curve works or not. when you look at the data you see the economy has slowed and the leading indicator of the economy that has been doing their job in leading us. we seen them continue to weaken and unless they pick up we will see the economy go into recession in the market as a leading indicator as well and it will fall as a habit. >> that is pretty depressing but you have a more optimistic view on things will play out. why is bearish been wrong? >> i respect that a l

let's get back to jim paulson. where -- let's go out a year let's go out two years it's 3,100 or wherever we are on the s&p, is that going to be the low end of a range or we in nosebleed territory and we're like up there in the sta stratosphere. >> i look at valuations as the moldable -- on trailing earnings, a little over 20 times and that's slightly above average from where we've been since 1990 when we've been in a higher valuation range than we were for the previous 130 years. i don't know if you're overvalued i don't think so and when you look at yields as low as they are and inflation as low as they are, i think it's a tough call next few years because we are at full employment if we start to grow again at a quicker pace, we're going to reaggravate overheat pressures, the same things that gave us trouble in 2018 and that will in a necessitate higher yields. i know productivity was off today, but it's been growing about 1.5% year on year now for the last 10 to 11 quarters which is up significantly from what it