morgan funds, and joe davis, chief economist at vanguard funds. gentlemen, thank you for joining us. >> nice to be here. >> susie: joe, you've been saying that there's a 40% chance that the u.s. economy will slip into a recession. why, and how bad will it be? >> why, just because the number of the indicators that we watch, some as early as february of this year, have started to deteriorate. not at an alarming pace, but when you look at a constellation of indicators in the financial markets and equity markets today, one of the best indicators, they just continue to say that although it's not, still likely that we have a recession, it's still one of a very precarious and ten with us situation. >> susie: david, you told me that we can possibly scare ourselves into a recession. >> well, yes, i think that's right. one of the frustrating things is that were it's not for this crisis which has reerupted in the last three weeks, we actually thought economic growth was going to pick up. after the japanese tsunami effects are reversing, there's pent up demand

military adviser to jefferson davis and then began fashioning the confederate strategy of a counteroffensive still with stonewall jackson in the shenandoah valley and then after joe johnston was wounded at the battle of seven pines, lee was given direct command of what he renamed the army of northern virginia. and that's when the lee greatness really starts and the lee legend really starts. but up until that time, no, robert e. lee was kind of an also ran. >> let me ask you both a question then. um, he's the successful counteroffense i general, the defender of the capital. as we march toward the fall of 1862, why did robert e. lee change a winning formula and decide to go on the offensive and march into maryland? steve, let's start with you. >> well, he really didn't have much choice. after a second bull run, he could go four directions, literally, the four treks of the compass. -- directions of the compass. and if he went to washington, he had not the arms or the heavy artillery to besiege washington. and if he went back south, he was admitting that his plan, his offensive plan had failed. if he went west into the shenandoah valley, he could supply his men, but