joe twyman-_ if they so wish us up joe, thank you, joe twyman._ you, joe twyman. we are 11 or 12 minutes away from this - you, joe twyman. we are 11 or 12 minutes away from this bbc - you, joe twyman. we are 11 or 12 - minutes away from this bbc question time leader special at beginning, let's talk to someone at the spin room will stop. joining me now is professor peter bull from the university of york. he studies the "microanalysis" of interpersonal communication. thank you forjoining us. as someone who specialises in psychology, what are you looking out for as the four leaders interact with the audience question mark we do a lot of work on what we called equally visual —— equivocation, the extent to which politicians reply or don't reply to questions. politicians reply or don't reply to tuestions. ~ �* ., ., ~' politicians reply or don't reply to tuestions. . �* ., ., ~ ., politicians reply or don't reply to questions-— politicians reply or don't reply to tuestions. . �* ., ., ~ ., , ., questions. we're looking to see what their re tl questions

it's quite a big, there's joe twyman from . big, there's joe twyman from. this is joe twyman.'ll be on shortly from, from the pollster. there's sean from the lib dems. and in the corner, tim shipman there. the legend that is writing his tim shipman is writing his tim shipman is writing his tim shipman is writing his work there for, for sunday times. and around the corner here, you'll see everyone's running out the way of the camera. gb news. and this round here, there's more, as you'll see here, the full, the full, the full, all the old journalists, they're working hard on the papers for tomorrow morning around the corner here for paul. i'm going to show you this way. if you go this way, through here, you'll just see through here, you'll just see through that door if you follow me. paul there is a dalek. that's for you, bev. there's your dalek . so just proves we your dalek. so just proves we are actually in the bbc in the dub with the dalek . dub with the dalek. >> so if you're listening on the radio, there is a dalek there. in the reception of broadcasting house, chopper, le

in ramsgate joe twyman told us that...d, how would that relate to the number of seats won by each party? the bbc does not make these calculations, but some bigger polls called mrp, polls do. and we have had several recently. all give labour a majority of well over 100 seats, some put it much higher, though as my peter barnes advises us that mac and here is a final question from aura in beckenham. some put it much higher, though as my peter barnes advises us... here is a final question from aura in beckenham. why don't you show the don't know percentage? surely this figure could be significant. well, laura, you are right. the bbc does not show don't know is on our tracker. that is because each polling company measures don't know and won't vote in different ways. these differences in methodology make it difficult to show don't know in trackers like ours. however, if you look into the detail of individual polls, it is often possible to find that information. thank you very much indeed to all of you who have sent in questions.

joe twyman, from the polling company deltapoll, and melissa sigodo from the daily mirror.showing nigel farage some of those polls that there's been a pump for reform uk, a bond that's quite significant as it puts them close to the reform have been the success story, not just _ reform have been the success story, notiust due — reform have been the success story, notjust due to reform have been the success story, not just due to the election campaign, but overthe not just due to the election campaign, but over the entire calendar— campaign, but over the entire calendar year, campaign, but over the entire calendaryear, if campaign, but over the entire calendar year, if you go back to the end of— calendar year, if you go back to the end of last — calendar year, if you go back to the end of last year, they were really on a _ end of last year, they were really on a low— end of last year, they were really on a low figure is comparatively, fluctuating around three, five, 6%, but since _ fluctuating around three, five, 6%, but since the campaign began, and particularly since nigel

raised £292,500, less than the liberal democrats who raised £335,000. 0ur panellists tonight — joe twymaneltapoll — and melissa sigodo from the daily mirror. melissa, what do you make of those figures? melissa, what do you make of those fiaures? , . .,, ., figures? they are astounding, so much money _ figures? they are astounding, so much money is — figures? they are astounding, so much money is ploughed - figures? they are astounding, so much money is ploughed into - figures? they are astounding, so i much money is ploughed into these parties, and just listening to you readout the amounts reminded me of frank castor and how he donated, i think, about 5 million to the conservatives. it is worrying. 0bviously conservatives. it is worrying. obviously we have caps, but when you look at the us, and they don't have a cap, as i understand it. i think that that can cause some issues about around how much influence they have, the donators, over a party. when you looked at frank hester, and diane abbott, and what he said about that party, and how the party continued to receive donations after that

katy balls, joe twyman, thanks to you both.er: funding for presentation of this program is provided by... financial services firm, raymond james. cunard is a proud supporter of public television. announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation, pursuing solutions for america's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: get the free pbs app now and stream the best of pbs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by...

and joe twyman, a pollster — and the co—founder of deltapoll.hortly, paul hutcheon — political editor at the daily record. he's just been listening to the scottish leaders debate and so will be joining us shortly. first, the latest headlines. president biden�*s son, hunter, has been found guilty on all three charges in his federal gun crime trial. the jury in delaware found that he'd lied about his drug use on a form while buying a weapon in twenty— eighteen. while buying a weapon in 2018. it's the first criminal prosecution of the child of a sitting us president. hamas has given its formal response to the latest peace plan for gaza. the group says it has a positive view of the three—phase proposal but wants several guarantees. these include a commitment to a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of israeli forces from the territory. and we will have all the latest reaction to the scottish leaders debate. leaders of the five main parties have spent the last hour making their pitches to voters. as you probably know by now, july the 4th

i'm joined now by the co—founder of delta poll, joe twyman, and chief executive of ipsos, ben page. chiefts of page. let's get the thoughts of you first, joe, just give us an update on the polling as of this morning, please. >> well, our most recent poll, aduu >> well, our most recent poll, adult poll came out, came out late last night. it its fieldwork date entirely comes after rishi sunaks return from the d—day commemorations. and it shows the conservatives on minus four from the previous poll, 21% in total. and that is the that is the lowest that we have had. the conservatives at any stage in this parliament, even when liz truss was at her darkest days, labour on 46. so that gives labour a 25 point lead, which would be enough for an absolutely enormous majority reform. are the beneficiaries up 3. and they i'm sure will want to gain on that further in the week coming up. >> so just to be clear, the d—day gaffe, if we call it that with rishi sunak, that's had a direct effect and it appears those who answered the poll are going to reform. is that right? >> well, it's always difficult to a

that's joe twyman, a spin doctor.l actually has sean, formerly a lib dem , but they're doing lib dem, but they're doing pretty good. let's just go this way, shall we? thank you paul. thank you everybody back to work, please. thank you. and you said we go right around here and we see. i'll show you where the bar is. martin here we are. so this is this is where we get all our food. oh, and i'll get my colleague here, camilla camilla tominey. your life on gb news. >> honestly, what do you like? >> honestly, what do you like? >> who's going to win today in the debate? >> well, obviously everyone's going to be looking at farage because he's going to make absolute capital on the d—day debacle. should we call it that? i wouldn't underestimate penny mordaunt because she is somebody who knows what she's doing in a debate. we've seen her perform every week at the despatch box in the house of commons, so she's very who's going to win over seven? >> who wins? >> who wins? >> who's wins? who's going to win? rayner maybe . i mean,

joining me now is katy balls, political editor at the spectator, and joe twyman, co—founder and directormanifesto, i think it's over 30 photos of keir starmer and it they've managed to get in just—in—time and keir starmer in the infant is today's event with rishi sunak and the sense of rejecting him in this labour party through the prism of keir starmer but you clearly see that the programme is more popular but if you compare him to 20 blair, you often find him a bit more unsure of them being a leader but they believe this is the best foot forward. it really draws a dividing line between the conservatives in labor because that slogan change is a keir starmer is putting a lot of faith in and we are different in stark contrast with rishi sunak staying which is stick with us and stick with the plan. yes it's about stability, it's about caution — it's about stability, it's about caution and today's manifesto launch was about _ caution and today's manifesto launch was about not scaring the horses and the manifesto demonstrated just how labor is _ the manifesto demonstrated just how labor is e

joe twyman - to be. really good to have you on the programme. joe twyman in i to be.ll also speak live to the northern ireland secretary and labour's deputy campaign coordinator. first, a taste of how the d—day row made its way into tonight's debate. respect our veterans, including those, with the average age of 100, who were deserted by the prime minister in normandy yesterday, which i think was a complete and utter disgrace, and shows us we actually have a very un—patriotic prime minister. it was dreadful. penny morduant, can you respond to that, rishi sunak leaving the d—day commemorations before the end of the day? what happened was completely wrong, and the prime minister has rightly apologised for that. apologised to veterans, but also to all of us, because he was representing all of us _ i'm from portsmouth. i've also been defence secretary. and my wish at the end of this week is that all of our veterans feel completely treasured. nick joins nickjoins us. there is a lot moving, on d—day, on the manifestos, as we go on air tonight. let's just deal with that issu

and joe twyman, a pollster — and the co—founder of deltapoll.

joe twyman from deltapoll told us, "while it's technically still possible to do constituency level pollingive labour a majority of well over 100 seats. some puts it much higher, though, as my colleague peter barnes advises us, as with all polls, these figures should be treated with a good degree of caution. and here's a final question from 0ra in beckenham, asking, "why don't you show that don't know percentage? surely this figure could be significant." well, laura, you're right. as you can see, the bbc doesn't show don't know�*s on our tracker. that's because each polling company measures don't know and won't vote in different ways. and these differences in methodology make it difficult to show don't know�*s in trackers like ours. however, if you look into the detail of individual polls, it's often possible to find that information. thank you very much indeed to all of you who've sent in questions, do keep them coming. a reminder to contact us at bbcyourvoice@bbc.co.uk. and you can find our poll tracker on the bbc news app. we are joined now by neil gray from the snp. iam i am looking at

but what about the other leaders goes back they were saying to joe other leaders goes back they were saying tojoe twyman westminster leader of the snp, is a firecracker mp, he often has very good sharp lines. i've done questions with him and he always comes out swinging. daisy cooper is a skilled performer as well. but i think the people to watch for are definitely angela rayner — we haven't seen much of angela rayner because there was the whole ludicrous police investigation into her house, so she was held back for quite a while. now she'll be unleashed for the first time to the public. penny mourdaunt, potential leadership candidate, and also nigel farage. so i think if you look at the head—to—head between the two leaders, it was quite dry — but this will be like east enders christmas special. i think they'll come out really punching hard. i think she's right, everything will be touch everyone will repeat piling on the conservatives for two things. there was a lie set about the tax stuff in the last one, and d—day, but i don't think angela rayner will get away scott free because it's in some of the pa