i want to introduce joel garreau, the co-director, lincoln professor of culture and values at arizona state university. joel was a staff writer of the washington post here in this building for many years. when i lived in washington 20 years ago he was one of my favorite writers that would look for the byline. you didn't know what he was going to be writing about but you knew you wanted to read it. and he is going to take you through four scenarios that are different, but all the potentially plausible in terms of our future life's them. without further ado, please come up and welcome, everyone. [applause] welcome to future tense. we are glad you are here. what i'm going to do for a few minutes is we are anticipating had a and stretching a conversation on what longevity means. what i want to do right now is give you a little stricter to think about this and talk about this, give you a framework of four possible scenarios that we think are important about how the future might be in the year 2030, 17 years from now less than a generation. what we are helping these will do is give you a fr