as john caulkins just pointed out, the winners are likely to be the people with the muscle. the winners in the drug enforcement game are going to be this project to resist enforcement. increase in enforcement intensity increases the competitive advantage of the worst organizations. and has been pointed out, counternarcotics tends to concentrate drug activity where the government is weakest. you will see a lot of people boasting -- 27 of the 34 provinces are substantially poppy 3. that is an accomplishment to be proud of until you realize that what that means is that the other seven provinces of afghanistan now produce the entire supply of illicit opium throughout the entire world, virtually. we have given them authority over the entire heroin production of the world. it does not sound at great state like that. mike in the garden told me -- my kindergarten teacher told me to always offer constructive criticism. we do have some ideas. we can target enforcement. we do not have given to the natural tendency. take the u.s. for example. the fbi's concentration on the mafia means t

john caulkins said the drug world is very complicated and afghanistan is very complicated and when you put them together you get an extremely complicated situation. in fairness to the authors, they ever just -- they have noted that they have to be modest about their conclusions because of the complication of the situation. but they have fairly simple, straightforward, general principles to apply to a very complicated situation. their argument goes, there is an extremely simple-minded answer which they are rejecting and that is drugs are bad to counterdrugs are good. they have moved us to an intermediate level where they are applying macroeconomics intelligently to the problem but there is a ground level where theya admit, to a good bit of uncertainty and that is the area i'm going to be exploring with you a little bit. ok. it gives me pause to think that if we ask the taliban to vote on whether there should be reduced drug production that they are taxing, they -- we're being told that legitimately they would answer yes. we do think the drug production would increase their tax revenues.