less _ supporters. john curtice talking to me earlier. john curtice talking to me earlier. less tandy india now. | a group of women have attacked the home of the main suspect in a high—profile sexual assault case that has triggered widespread protests. the suspect was identified in a video which has been widely shared on social media. it shows two abducted women being paraded naked and assaulted by a mob. the incident happened in may during an outbreak of ethnic violence. 0ur correspondent nitin srivastava is in manipur. he told us more about what's happened today. the police have opened a case of gang rape and they have arrested four men and they have claimed and they have said that they will be making more arrests soon. but the fact is that the question that is being asked widely, not just here in india, but everywhere else, is why did it take them so long? precisely 62 days since the complaint was lodged by the family of the women who were stripped and paraded by a mob. and after video became viral on social media. that is when the pol

john curtice, thank _ to hang onto that seat. john curtice, thank you _ to hang onto that seat.that swing, that 24% swing from the conservatives to labour — a 29% swing from conservatives to the liberal democrats in somerton and frome. you held uxbridge and frome. you held uxbridge and south ruislip, but there was still a 6.7% swing for labour. are you worried now that the next election is lost? well, they're very mixed results. big variety of local factors at play there. earlier tonight, i think people would have thought that uxbridge was perhaps even the most vulnerable of all of those seats. clearly quite different results in different areas. i think it's quite clear we now need to have an absolutely laser—like focus on the people's priorities which are the prime minister's priorities. and that is mostly around the economy, around inflation, around growth, around ensuring debt�*s under control. because i think only by delivering on those priorities will the people really give us a hearing on... if you don't deliver on them, you admit you will probably lose the general electio

here's professor sir john curtice again, on the takeaways for the labour leader.is parliament, recorded the kind of swing that labour have not achieved since the 1992—97 parliament. 0n the other hand, he will be worried that his party's election strategy apparently could not cope with a well targeted conservative campaign about the low emissions zone in uxbridge. i think almost undoubtedly, labour will want to ta ke to take lessons from that. so a win each for three parties — plenty for each of them to digest, but with still up to 18 months to go until a general election, a long way to go until the real test of public opinion. thank you. let's go back to chris, in selby and ainsty in north yorkshire. chris, the bottom line is, all the main parties, naturally they will claim that they won this and that. bottom line, which of the leaders do you think will sleep better tonight? you know what? i think they will all do at least a little tossing and turning. the conservatives, the picture is bleak. there is no escaping that. they had a right old stuffing in somerset, an

political parties, they will be changing through the night and we will have expert analysis from sir john curticewe will also have commentary from journalists, for the daily mirror and the sun. we will go through the build—up and will expect the first result around three o'clock in the morning. a difficult thing to predict and we will possibly have all three by around liz30am, if i can keep my eyes open until then! back to ou. keep my eyes open until then! back to yom get — keep my eyes open until then! back to you. get those _ keep my eyes open until then! back to you. get those matchsticks out! a final thought from chris. what are we looking out for tonight? the big question tonight isjust how badly do the conservatives do? it sounds quite blunt but they have been struggling in the opinion polls for ages and had a pretty hellish year and so many people are struggling with the cost of living. one party figure said tonight that they expect to lose horribly and potentially historically in all three seats. they blamed what they called long boris, the sense that the behaviour of the former prime min

the polling expert professor sir john curtice says the results across the board show the tories are in vote is down by 21 points, it's very similar to the 18—point drop that the opinion polls are registering. this is a party that faces a very substantial challenge to restore its fortunes between now and the general election. in uxbridge and south ruislip though, labour and the tories were pretty much neck and neck on share of the vote. the tories there at 45%, labour on 44%. both parties say the contest went the tories�* way because of a local issue — the expansion of london's ultra low emission zone. there was a 6.7% swing to labour — lower than the swing implied by recent polls and not enough to clinch it. labour will certainly be asking why it fell short. so a win each for three parties. plenty for all of them to digest, but it could still be 18 months until a general election — a long way to go until the real test of public opinion. leila nothing there. chris is here, hotfoot off the train from selby and ainsty. well done and getting back in time! you've also spent time in the othe

the mastermind psephologist, professor sir john curtice. delighted to say he can join us now . n join us now . and sirjohn, we're sort delighted to say he can join us now . and sir john, we're sort of now. and sir john, we're sort of looking at these by elections in in isolation because ultimately by elections don't always tell us what happens at the general election, but they can give us some clues. what were the clues that we learned last night? well you're certainly right. >> we shouldn't be looking to by elections to forecast the outcome of a general election. but we can look at historical precedent. and unfortunately for the conservatives the historical precedent precedents are not very kind to them. well, first of all, there's richard ford was just mentioning the liberal democrats have now gained four seats from the conservatives tvs in this parliament in in three cases, including somerton , from cases, including somerton, from last night at near record breaking swings. the last time the liberal democrats won four seats off the conservatives lives in a parliament was the p

we'll discuss all of this later with the polling guru john curtice.one in phases. in 1919, the scottish covenant, a petition for a home—rule scottish parliament, garnered two million signatures in a population ofjust over five. it would be almost 50 years before the new blair government delivered on that parliament. well done! 15 years after that, scotland had the chance to vote for self—determination. it was built as a once in a generation vote. more than 55 sent voted against independence. the independence referendum galvanised an independence movement which sees itself as a much broader church. the question is, if the snp vote were to falter at the next westminster election, would that movement be able to come up with a route map for independence that involves the much wider body politic in scotland? professor ailsa henderson is one of scotland's top political analysts. so what is the state of scottish politics at the moment? we are seeing minimal change in terms of how people say they would vote in the hollywood election but significant change in

, thank ou wake of these results. john curtice, thank you very _ wake of these results. john curtice, set up? results i would like to share with candidates| would like to share with candidates and their agents. if candidates and agents can follow barry with his handbill in the doorway, we are going to go out of the doorway and turn right. the results with candidates and agents. out of the door turn right, please. candidates and agents. out of the doorturn right, please. let’s candidates and agents. out of the door turn right, please. let's hope the don't door turn right, please. let's hope they don't go _ door turn right, please. let's hope they don't go home _ door turn right, please. let's hope they don't go home accidentally i they don't go home accidentally following that announcement. but it does look as if we are getting to the point where they are going to be told the candidates and their agents what the result is in selby and ainsty selby will keep a close eye because it doesn't sound like it will be too long. what was your response to ben wallace's announcement?— response to

backbenchers than him with his backbenchers than it yeah, and sirjohn curtice, >> yeah, and sir john curticehree seats contested, the conservative vote down 21. so therefore does this indicate perhaps a rishi sunak will go long, as the saying is, i that will get an election further away than maybe a test into next spnng? away than maybe a test into next spring? well yeah. >> if i were rishi sunak, i would be holding off on a general election as long as possible. 21% across the country would give labour easily an overall majority. they only need 12% for an overall majority. what rishi sunak is hoping is that if he manages to visibly deliver on those five priorities, which will take a long time, as you say, he'll have to go long, then maybe by sort of late 20, 24, early 20, 25, people will see their mortgage rates reducing again. they'll see the cost of living crisis lessening a little bit and they'll have a reason to vote conservative. the only issue is, i mean, will a slight easing off of a cost of living crisis be a positive enough reason for people to go out to the ballot boxes and vote co