. >> you mention john curtis. john, what is your take on where we are now? >> just a whole slew of results, about five or six within the past few minutes. no side is looking set to win this referendum. doing so fairly comfortably, although not as healthy as they might have expected a couple months ago. certainly a fairly substantial lead for the no side, if these were also asked if these results are editing like we expect. aberdeen, places where we would expect the result to be not that far away full stop in both places, no were very clearly ahead. >> just looking ahead, edinburgh and glasgow, still looking for those. those patterns, what are you looking for? >> the truth is if the yes side are going to have any chance left in this referendum, they will have to win glasgow stupendously. so far, the evidence on the west of scotland is they may be narrowly ahead in the city. we would not be surprised about that. we would be very surprised if there was anything in the way of a substantial victory. in the absence of that, there seems very little prospect of this

we spoke to john curtis. he said there is caution around some of these polls and there is some closeness in them. he does say that the no campaign holds a slight advantage ahead of the yes campaign. the no votes has a small lead. it is easy to see why people make that conclusion. the range of the lead that the no camp has ranges from eight percentage point just down to one percentage point. byther poll put yes ahead five, the most by 8%. john curtis cautioning a little on the pole. -- poll. they did not use quite as many people for sampling as many other polls have done. cameron will be delivering a speech where he emphasizes there is no going back. it is clear that even though he meetings,g emergency everything else seems to be on hold as david cameron and others had north of the border. very negative in terms of a yes vote. it is not uniformly that way. >> if you look at some of the suggesting people in favor of independent scotland, they quote all kinds of on economic productivity, plenty of academic voice

we spoke to john curtis earlier on today. he was saying that the no campaign holds a slight advantage i had of the vote. jpmorgan also saying the no vote has a small lead. we had four holes over the weekend. three of those put the ahead. the range of the leads was fairly wide. down to 1.2 points points. there was a poll which put the yes camp i had. a guru on the polling scene tells us that he is getting a bit of a warning on that one because of the small size of the sample. yougov had been talking about how this is all about the economy. he thinks there will be something similar to what we saw in quÉbec. they get fearful about the economy and pull back from the edge. john curtis says he is not sure whether that will happen. the choice is not between change in the status quo. it is between change and change. he wonders if that is one of the dynamics we have to work in here. let's talk about business. telegraphthe sunday with a poll that said nearly 80% of them would see a significant effect on the u.k. autonomy of scotland vo

john curtis. john will be with his team providing us with lots of valuable tips and analysis throughout the night. let's talk a little about the campaign. it's been remarkable just to see the level of engagement across all kinds of communities across scotland. you can't go anywhere without someone asking you or telling you about their view of the referendum. it's a level of engagement that i've never seen in 30 years of reporting and all of my colleagues are saying the same thing. of course, when you're talking about something this important, when you're talking about stakes which are as high as these, it's maybe not surprising that from time to time tempers have been slightly frayed. >> we owe the scottish people something that is fair, legal and decisive. >> ladies and gentlemen, that was quite a lunch. let's make sure it's quite a campaign. thank you. >> during this campaign it's one of the most important things i've ever done in politics. >> i'm honored to announce that on thursday, the 18th of

for more we go to john curtis. thank you for being with us. never a good idea to put too much stock in one poll but clearly it seems the yes campaign is in a much better position than ever before and what's driving that? >> well, you're quite right certainly. it's in at least as good a position as any point of the campaign. there is still some doubt about exactly how big this surge is. insofar as there has been a movement i think there are kind of two clear things driving. one is the thing that's been driving this referendum from the beginning. and that is that people who think that an independent scotland would be more prosperous, always been more likely to vote yes. those who think an independent scotland is less well off vote no and what you see in new polls underneath that surge towards yes is an increase in the proportion of people that think that independence would be good for their chi and decrease the proportion and that seems to be crucial point number one. the yes campaign seems to have begun to wane at l

i have to quote john curtis here because i did not come up with that word but it is crystallizing those who think of the economy would do better, nearly almost yes. it is within that group that nearly everyone is drawn to the yes side but the group has become slightly smaller compared to 2013. in august, in the polls, it seems to have increased a bit. it showed a big swing to yes and saw a quite substantial increase of people who thought the economy would do better. overall, not substantially more people than 2015. it might even be a slightly smaller group, but that group has been convinced kind of to the yes vote. it makes it all even more complicated in the attitude information. it is a two-year-long process with a lot of debate on multiple actors coming into this debate. people's attitude formation on this issue is quite surprising. >> thank you very much. as you know, the american government weighed in somewhat diplomatically on the no side. i'm wondering if that has had any impact one way or the other or what the attitude is about that. has there been any discussion about what sort

john curtis here because i did not come up with that word but it is crystallizing those who think ofthe economy would do better, nearly almost yes. it is within that group that nearly everyone is drawn to the yes side but the group has become slightly smaller compared to 2013. in august, in the polls, it seems to have increased a bit. it showed a big swing to yes and saw a quite substantial increase of people who thought the economy would do better. overall, not substantially more than 2015. it might even be a slightly smaller group, but that group has been convinced kind of to the yes vote. even moret all complicated in the attitude information. processtwo-year-long with a lot of debate on multiple actors coming into this debate. people's attitude formation on this issue is quite surprising. >> thank you very much. as you know, the american in somewhateighed diplomatically on the no side. i'm wondering if that has had any impact one way or the other or what the attitude is about that. there been any discussion about what sort of special wouldonship with the u.s. be in the event of a

john curtis there. 54% no in clackmannanshire. i should be able to work out that's 8, not 12%.o pick me up on that. >> almost exactly in line with the last opinion poll that showed an 8% lead there, remember. if you are used to watching uk general elections of to keep reminding yourself that the areas we are hearing aren't identical in size. they are massively different. there are 12 clackmannanshires before a glasgow. the other obvious thing to remember every vote counts equally. total votes being added up together. it's a sign. certainly a sign that the smiles we have seen on the no campaigners' faces is the reason you are seeing them. let's note though if you saw that result six months ago there would be no smiles at all. don't be ridiculous. nowhere near this sort of figure. they are only smiling out of pure relief because about a week or ten days ago they thought, my god, we are going to lose. something that almost nobody on the no side thought. six months, 12, 18. 24 months ago. >> whether or not people changed their minds in the last week or so when we have seen gordon b

nimbley john ballantine niven katherine no nowak curtis terrence noel daniel r.robert walter noonan jacqueline june norton robert grant norton daniela r. notaro brian novotny soichi numata brian felix nunez jose r. nunez jeffrey nussbaum james a. oakley dennis oberg james p. o'brien jr. michael o'brien scott j. o'brien timothy michael o'brien lt. daniel o'callaghan jefferson ocampo diana j. o'connor keith k. o'connor richard j. o'connor amy o'doherty marni pont o'doherty douglas oelschlager takashi ogawa albert ogletree >> and my brother, glen davis kerwin, we miss you. >> and our beloved mother, frances arrows, who perished in the south tower. she was 76, possibly the oldest. take comfort. i believe my mom and all of the victims were the first holy martyrs in a holy war and are in heaven. may they all rest in peace eternally and take comfort in god, the father, god the son, god the holy spirit, and our mother mary in heaven. we miss you, mom. philip paul ognibene james andrew o'grady joseph j. ogren lt. thomas o'hagan samuel oitice patrick o'keefe capt. william

troy edward nilsen paul nimbley john ballantine niven katherine marie noack curtis terrence noel michael. daniel r. nolan robert walter noonan jacqueline june norton robert grant norton daniela rosalia notaro brian christopher novotny soichi numata brian felix nunez jose nunez jeffrey roger nussbaum james a. oakley dennis patrick o'berg james p. o'brien jr. michael p. o'brien scott j. o'brien timothy michael o'brien daniel o'callaghan dennis james o'connor jr. diana o'connor keith kevin o'connor richard j. o'connor amy o'doherty marni pont o'doherty douglas e. oelschlager takashi ogawa albert ogletree >> and my brother glen davis kerwin. we miss you. >> an our beloved mother, frances, who perished in the south tower. she was 76, possibly the oldest. take comfort. i believe my mom and all the victims were the first holy martyrs in a holy war and are in heaven. may they all rest in peace eternally and take comfort in god, the father, god, the son, god, the holy spirit, and our mother mary in heaven. we miss you, mom. philip paul ognibene john a. ogonowski james andrew o'grady joseph j. ogr

democratic candidate, state representative amanda curtis who is far left of the center views sit well in right of center montana. she is in the race after democrat johnalsh's withdrawal for page you are rising his naval war college thesis. steve danes is up 20% in the average poll. that is remarkable in a state where democrats held that senate seat more than a century now. it is why in part some analysts are predict the gop may take the senate. >> democratic senate leadership is there is occasion to write one, would say that harry reid and democratic leaders held on to their majorities in 2010 and 2012 in large part because of the weak, particular weaknesses of the republican nominees in some key races. and that in 2014 it was democratic nominees who seem to have certain weaknesses. >> reporter: nate silver, the noted political forecaster, formerly of "the new york times," now at web site 538 gives republicans 64% chance of taking the senate. jon? jon: doug mckelway in washington, keeping an eye on the upcoming election. doug, thank you. >> reporter: my pleasure. heather: as nato struggles to put together a coalition to take on isis there are growing