first great available panel, he is the chief washington correspondent for cnbc please welcome john harwood, everybody. (cheers and applause) john, good man, thank is so much for being here. boom, lock it down. all right, she is the easyitier of nation magazine friend of the show katrina vandehovel is with us, boom, give it up. all right. ladies and gentlemen, star of stage and screen, best selling pop artist and recent first person voted off celebrity apprentice, david cassidy. (cheers and applause) >> stephen: okay, high five from a distance, my man. >> all right, first of all, great available panel, do you have your seat. >> yes, we do. >> stephen: thank you so much. >> i didn't put the tip on there yet. >> stephen: that's all right. you're not reimbursed for tips, okay. and we'll get a check out to you guys in 12 to 18 weeks. thank you so much. all right, panel, what is going on with this election? okay, john harwood, okay, you're a political analyst, who takes florida? >> well, first of all, i'm in an open marriage with my political predictions right now. but-- . >> stephen: good man,

cnbc's john harwood joins us live from detroit. good evening, john? >> reporter: larry, there are some polls that will be open until 9:00 in michigan, as well so we'll have to wait a bit for those results, but we already know this is a very, very close race in michigan. pretty high stakes for the norm nation. my take is that mitt romney wins michigan in arizona he'll be the nominee, and i think he'll be the nominee even if he loses michigan, but it will take longer and much rougher. both went after each other by name and mitt romney singling out rick santorum. mitt romney said he's late to that party. >> i'm glad he ridiculoecognize is a campaign about the economy. it's time for him to focus on the economy and for you to all say okay, if the economy is going to be the issue we focus who has the experience to actually get this economy going again? senator santorum is a nice guy, but he's never had a job in the private sector. >> but, of course, rick santorum makes the argument that it's not only about economic issues. social issues especially those con

john harwood, this seems to be the night that the santorum campaign was able to stay alive. >> absolutely they are. it's as your guests were discussing a few moments ago, it's pretty embarrassing for mitt romney to have numbers this weak against somebody like santorum. contests up to now in nevadanevada or in florida or south carolina for that matter. for rick santorum to get up off the mat and really clean mitt romney's clock in missouri and minnesota has got to be concerning to the romney campaign. >> jane, you've been studying the romney campaign and the attack dog, who you wrote about this work in "the new yorker." they tried to down-play the results today. here he is the prezumed pront runner in a party that one they know who their presumed nominee is, the republican voters have a way of getting on board with that. these republican voters are extremely resistant to their front-runner. >> well, you know, also one of the things that's going on is that each of these candidates have their own super-pacs with their own billionaires behind them. santorum has foster freece behind him. they'

. >>> let's bring in john harwood. i want to pick up with how ron ended the story about the gas prices. republicans will hone in on this. 18 straight days now we have seen gas prices rise. how vulnerable is the president on that issue? >> lester, at a time when most things politically are going well for the president it's a problem for three reasons. first is the immediate pain americans are feeling and they identify every time they go to the pump. second, the potential to slow down the economic recovery and it's been gaining steam. third, because of instability in the middle east threatens to make this problem worse over time. the one saving grace for the administration, typically gas prices go down in the fall after the summer driving months. and that would be in the election season. >> let me ask you about that sharp tone between romney and santorum. is that indicative of the fact they both see this as a crucial must win state and why? >> they do see it as a must win state. for mitt romney, it's his home state. but

so you're seeing another result of the money, i think, also here. >> john harwood, what are we seeing in the president's position on super pacs? and my first question to you, john, about this is why are we seeing it? why did the president feel compelled to let it be known publicly that yes, he acknowledges that the super pac created for him last year that we all know about, he actually would be happy to see people contribute to that? why not just let the word go out in the more -- that put less of a focus on some sense of inconsistency in the president's position? >> well, because that's what they did in 2011. and the money didn't exactly come rolling in over the transom. if you compare how much priorities usa action and other democratic-associated super pacs raised, it was a fraction of what crossroads gps, what karl rove and ed gillespie and other republicans, kind of a shadow rnc has raised. and limbaugh was right. they want to win the election. people talk about chicago-style politics. if there's one defining characteristic of barack obama and anybody else who runs for national of

. >>> we want to turn to cnbc's john harwood. for mitt romney obviously a big deal to win a kacaucus but is i enough for him to get this endorsement, winning the straw poll today? >> reporter: both are a nice psychological boost for mitt romney after a very bad tuesday against rick santorum and bad new national poll suggesting that rick santorum might be coming up substantially. the poll actually showed rick santorum with a 15-point lead over mitt romney. but i got off the phone with the senior strategist for mitt romn romney's campaign. he said don't put too much stock in the results. he said the two big primaries are important, coming up in michigan and arizona and mitt romney's campaign thinks they have to win both of these. >> but we're still looking at an unsettled field and when you hear that conversation, this talk of a brokered convention, does that become a real possibility? >> lester, i'll believe a brokered convention when i see one. it's never happened yet, but if it does happen it's not going to be because anybody at

neither rick santorum or newt gingrich able to get on that ballot. >> thanks, john harwood. you saw him this morning on cnbc. warren buffett sounding off on taxes to single family housing from the stock markets to the banks. >> he likes one bank in particular. we'll tell you which one. and should you bet like buffett with your own investments? the experts weigh in on the other side of a very quick break. ty and i are back in two. ♪ [ male announcer ] offering four distinct driving modes and lexus dynamic handling, the next generation of lexus will not be contained. the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back. see your lexus dealer. there's no going back. [ male announcer ] ylord of the carry-on.. sovereign of the security line. you never take an upgrade for granted. and you rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. and go. you can even take a full-size or above. and still pay the mid-size price. i deserve this. [ male announcer ] you do, business pro. you do. go national. go like a pro. we were just driving along,er comin' back from

we will compare the plans with john harwood when he joins us live, next on "now." [ male announcer ] is zero worth nothing? ♪ imagine zero pollutants in our environment. or zero dependency on foreign oil. ♪ this is why we at nissan built a car inspired by zero. because zero is worth everything. the zero gas, 100% electric nissan leaf. innovation for the planet. innovation for all. spark card from capital one. spark cash gives me the most rewards of any small business credit card. it's hard for my crew to keep up with 2% cash back on every purchase, every day. 2% cash back. that's setting the bar pretty high. thanks to spark, owning my own business has never been more rewarding. [ male announcer ] introducing spark the small business credit cards from capital one. get more by choosing unlimited double miles or 2% cash back on every purchase, every day. what's in your wallet? this guy's amazing. >> you are looking live at mitt romney in chandler, arizona, he is about to outline his plan of the tax code in a speech ahead of tonight's debate. joining me now is john harwood, john, thanks

get down to our john harwood who is down in washington, d.c. with more reaction to the news that is being brought at the bottom of your screen. passage of the payroll tax cut. >> the senate is still voting. they haven't gavelled this balloting to the close. it does appear there is enough support in the senate to pass that payroll tax cut which the house passed a few minutes ago. it would then go to president obama for his signature. he'll sign it because he believes extending this payroll tax cut through 2012 will be good for the economy and good for his re-election, coincidentally. republicans decided blocking that payroll tax cut extension was not going to be in their political interest. they paid a heavy enough price in december. >> proof they can get something done every now and then. >> exactly. >> thanks, john harwood in washington. you have a comment? >> the payroll tax cut, we have significant purchases of risky assets, zero interest rate policy, then we have comments at the end of the recession this happened this. type of behavior does

john harwood joins us. what do the democrats say?ing is they're going to take to the voters the argument that they advanced in the budget talks with republicans last year that didn't produce that grand bargain that both the president and house speaker boehner wanted. that's the purpose of this, for the administration to lay out their argument for the voters. republicans are coming back, saying you haven't gone out and possibly mitt romney, we'll see, will lay their two are two arts in front of the american people. perhaps after the election you can have some progress. >> john boehner was in that room with the president, and the republicans did not want the rank-and-file republicans to go for the new revenue that was the price for making a deal. that's the key difference between the democratic budget and republican budget that gets placed before the american people both in congress and through the administration. barack obama is calling for 1.5 trillion in new revenues, mostly from tax increases on the wealthy. he says that's necessar

responsibility john harwood is in detroit. much of a home field advantage does mitt romney really have? >> he has a significant home field advantage. four years ago when he beat mike huckabee and john mccain here, 40% say his name and reputation matter. of course his father was governor. he's got a superior organization. he did run four years ago. all those things count in his favor. he's facing a candidate in santorum who's got momentum on the right. last night an ood visor told me he's expected to win. >> is this a make or break for romney? how important is this? what's your take? >> it's important, and if he loses there's going to be some real anxiety among republicans around is the country about their prospects for the general election. i still think that if he loses here, he is likely to grind it out and be the nominee. it's difficult for somebody else to come in. but it's going to be a longer and more difficult road if he loses to santorum. then of course he's got to watch super tuesday next week. >> what about rick santo

. >> cnbc's john harwood has more of the details for us. john, he he's saying voters, you have a clear choice here, isn't he? >> absolutely. and the phrase you used at the beginning, chris, game on, is exactly what this budget is about. these two parties are stuck. we saw that last summer when john boehner and the president tried to negotiate a grand bargain, and then with the super committee, which deadlocked after that. and they've got a fundamental disagreement over how you move forward how you get long-term deficit reduction and the investments to make in the meantime. the president is saying we can't do it unless we raise taxes on people at the top. republicans are saying no, and that's the essence of this budget, trying to lay those choices before the american people and fight it out during the election. >> yeah, and the budget really mirroring what is the key issue in this campaign, john. >> exactly. we saw in the occupy wall street movement last year, an increasing emphasis on what is the role of income inequality in the country, wha

our chief washington correspondent, john harwood, with the report. hn, this can be read in no other way, this jobs report, but favorably to the president. >> reporter: absolutely, ty. it's a political jolt as well as a jobs jolt. and the reason for that is when you're an incumbent president running for re-election and the economy appears to be getting better, much less getting better at an accelerating pace, it makes everything that you say sound truer and better and makes more sense to swing voters than everything your critics say a tougher sell for them to make. privately, the president's policy and political advisors are giddy over this although the president himself this morning adopted a somewhat more cautious note. here's the president. >> these numbers will go up and down in the coming months. and there's still far too many americans who need a job or need a job that pays better than the one they have now. but the economy is growing stronger. the recovery is speeding up. and we've got to do everything in our power to keep it going. >> reporter:

welcome back cnbc's john harwood now with all of the details. good evening, john? >> larry, this deal which is now getting bipartisan support, not finely buttoned up according to leaders that i talked to this evening, expected to be passed this week will add to that deficit, so if you're concerned about deficits, i never thought of you as a republican, but this would add $100 billion to the deficit this year by extending that payroll tax cut without paying for it and also it has $50 billion in money for extended unemployment benefits and for remedying the so-called doc fix, doctors who treat patients under medicare from having their fees cut dramatically and those are paid for the pensions and the government spectrum and that sort of thing. this is a deal that's caused some concern among conservatives who care about the deficit above other things because it's sht paid for to the tune of $100 billion, larry. >> it's part of the story and it's a dreary story. many thanks to john harwood in washington, d.c. now president obama headed back out on the campaign trail pro

our chief washington correspondent, john harwood, is tracking that story. john, this was widely leaked over the weekend. are there any surprises in what the president said today? >> reporter: no. although the president does propose in his budget to allow the dividend tax level to rise to 39.6, which is the top marginal personal rate for people making over $250,000. he hasn't proposed that in the past. it was well-known the president would propose $1.5 trillion. that's the key difference between his position and republicans. they did strike a deal last year to avoid a debt limit crisis on the level of discretionary spending. so we knew that coming in. level of deficit for 2012, $1.3 trillion. for 2013, $900 billion. those are points of attack for republicans as are the absence of significant entitlement reform here. republicans including mitt romney are going after him big time for that. >> john, he's obviously positioning for the election. i mean, does the material -- does the detail of what he announced today stance any chance on capitol hill in the meantim

john harwood is there. hi, john. >> reporter: sue, it's a real testing time for mitt romney. he has not been able to close the sale with conservative voters in this primary season. we saw evidence of that when he was skunked on tuesday by rick santorum in minnesota, colorado and also missouri. rick santorum spoke this morning, got a favorable reception urging the members not to settle for somebody who didn't share their believes at the deepest level, it would be a hollow victory if they won to compromise with somebody in the white house. and mitt romney has to answer that. he's going to emphasize building up a rainy day fund and also his efforts as governor of massachusetts to prevent violations of liberty as we've seen president obama dealing with on the contraceptive rule. >> update us on the news today investigating the house financial services committee, possible insider trading there. >> reporter: spencer bachus first surfaced in a 60 minutes report last year, now we've learned today the office of congressional ethics is investigating. he put out a statement this morning

. >>> i'm john harwood in washington.ou can see this live picture of president obama speaking at the white house, he's outlining what the white house calls an accommodation with objections by catholic organizations, among others, to an administration rule connected with health care reform that would require religiously connected charities to provide contraceptive coverage to their employees. the white house is not backing down on the idea that those employees will get the coverage but they're now saying the religious backed charities will not pay for that coverage, instead insurance companies will have to require it on their own. it's not much of a move to the objections of catholics in particular, but it's something that the white house hopes will allow them to move forward. guys? >> john, thanks so much, john harwood in washington for us. if you want to watch the president and what he is saying, it's streaming live on cnbc.com. >>> we want to touch the markets as well if we look at the major averages, we've been seeing

. >> i would like to get to john harwood now with breaking news on the budget. what have you found?ndy, i hate to break the suspense that everybody has for the administration's budget release for monday, but i have confirmation from the white house that the "the wall street journal" reported the white house will project a $1.3 trillion deficit for the year 2012. $901 billion deficit for the year 2013. the first was about 8.5% of gdp. the second 5.5%. so it's coming down. not as rapidly in these numbers as we've been hearing from the congressional budget office. that's because the economic analysis used to generate this budget was before the recent upturn in economic activity. so it's likely there will be some upside good news later on. the budget will also propose as we've expected $1.5 trillion in new revenue largely from the expiration of those top end bush tax cuts. will have half a billion dollars in new infrastructure, transportation, road-related spending as well as a significant increase in spending on research and development in general. nondefense programs also for manufact

howard fineman, and you gene robinson and john harwood. this is rick santorum speaking in grand rapids earlier this evening. >> wow. [ applause ] >> a month ago they didn't know who we were, but they do now. what an absolutely great night. i am so thankful, so thankful to so many people here tonight. first and foremost, i just have to say to the people of michigan, you know, we came into the backyard of one of my opponents in a race that everyone said, well, just ignore, because you have no chance here. and the people of michigan looked into the hearts of the candidates and all i have to say is i love you back. thank you. i also -- thank you. i also -- [ laughter ] as i said -- >> we love you baby. >> and not exactly through the mediums that i want you to get to know me, but we have an opportunity tonight to tell you more about who rick santorum is. i want to thank the folks up here on this stage behind me. my wife, karen, and my family represented here by elizabeth and john and at home the rest of the family. daniel and sarah maria and pe

john harwood with the details there. likely to get a lot of play over the next several days. let's touch the market here. we are trading at session lows after briefly breaking 13,000 yesterday. and i mean brief. despite the losses today, the dow, s&p and nasdaq still on track to record the best january and february gains since 1991. but mike murphy, who's here on the set with us today, financials are weak today and the market seems to be in that mode where, look, reese got downgraded by fish so that's still a big issue that the market hasn't figured out how to deal with. >> correct. and remember the market is up 8% year to date. we have two months and we're 8%. november and december of last year anyone would have said i'll take 8% in the first two months. so now the financials are a little sketchy here after having a huge run-up. recovery sectors, financials, home builders had huge runs in the latter part of 2011 and the beginning part of 2012. so tee them take a breather i think has to be expected. i think the greece situation has kind of been put to bay for the time being.

john harwood, perry bacon, junior, thanks so much. >>> the michigan and arizona primaries will be held this tuesday. washington state will caucus on march 3rd. then 11 states will be holding primaries and kuxs on super tuesday, march 6th. >>> 93-year-old nelson mandela is out of the hospital today. he was brought from a military hospital to his home in johannesburg. doctors are attempting to diagnose chronic abdominal pain. ron allen is live in johannesburg. any official word on how he's doing? >> reporter: well, he's said to be at home resting comfortably with family. doctors have been saying all day this was not an emergency, this was a planned hospital visit and his life was not in danger. but information has been creeping up very slowly where we still can't confirm what hospital he's at. we believe he's at his home. mandela has not made a significant public appearance for almost two years. that leads to a lot of speculation, a lot of concern and worry about his overall health even if today things went well. he was in the hospital for about 36 hours we believe. he's 93 years old, wi

here -- >> clear weather today, a little bit chilly but nothing will turn out. >> thanks a lot, john harwoodout for john he could be a weatherman, a good one at that. >> it is important for the turnout today, it's a big deal. >> crucial, john explained why it was crucial. >>> joining us now on the set, steve crawford, partner and co-founder of center view partners and former co-president of morgan stanley. given your former role at morgan stanley if you'd indulge me because it's in the news today, morgan stanley announced that it might have to post more collateral up to $6.5 billion, what is the impact on the firm and how we should think about banks broadly in the context? >> first of all, the potential downgrade is news but additional posting of collateral, that's something they've had to disclose for some period of time. so the effects of that aren't, shouldn't be that substantial. it's more profitability than anything else, it's a federally regulated institution with substantial access to fund so long it could drive up the cost of funds which is a huge part of their profitability. >> are

john harwood is live in d.c. he's been touting grand rapids roots.michigan? >> exactly. we still have ten days to go. it's i shaping up as a real test for mitt romney. it's his native state. his father was the governor there. a major auto executive. if you look at these polls, rick santorum has taken the lead of eight points or nine points over mitt romney in the average by realclearpolitics.com. you have conservative voters and blue collar voters. mitt romney and the super pac have gone on attack. >> how did rick santorum actually vote? santorum voted to raise the debt limit five times and for billions in wasteful projects, including the bridge to nowhere. in a single session, he cosigned 51 bills for spending. santorum voted to raise his own pay and joined hillary clinton to let convicted felons vote. rick santorum, big spender, washington insider. >> santorum is fighting back with his own ads by his campaign and his super pac. in the speech at the detroit economic club yesterday, he specifically responded to that big spender attack. >> i know you

and john harwood of cnbc and "the new york times." >> award winning reporting and analysis. covering history as it happens. live from our nation's capital, this is "washington week with gwen ifill." produced in association with "national journal." corporate funding for "washington week" is provided by -- >> we know why we're here. >> to connect our forces to what they need when they need it. >> to help troops see danger. before it sees them. >> to answer the call of the brave and bring them safely home. >> around the globe, the people of boeing are working together to support and protect all who serve. >> that's why we're here. >> this rock has never stood still. since 1875, we've been there for our clients through good times and bad. when their needs changed, we were there to meet them. through the years, from insurance to investment management, from real estate to retirement solutions, we've developed new ideas for the financial challenges ahead. this rock has never stood still. and that's one thing that will never change. prudential. >> corporate funding is also provided

our chief washington correspondent john harwood is in detroit. john? >> reporter: there's real suspense about this outcome. rick santorum was in the western part of the state, in a diner this morning appealing to evangelical christians. mitt romney is spending more time in metropolitan detroit. that's where his vote is. he's accusing rick santorum of messing with the primary by appealing to democrats on the basis of the auto bailout. he thinks that's a dirty trick even though he acknowledges having voted in democratic primaries in the state of michigan. but the number one democrat trying to mess with these republicans is barack obama who spoke to auto workers in washington today and drew a contrast between republicans' opposition to the auto bailout, mitt romney's especially, and what he did. here's the president. >> some even said we should let detroit go bankrupt. think about what that choice would have meant for this country. if we had turned our backs on you, if america had thrown in the towel, if gm and chrysler had gone under. so, no, we were not

john harwood is joining us from washington with the latest. john, did you stay up late last night and watch the game? >> reporter: i did. telephones an excellent game. kudos to eli manning. brady couldn't quite do it. >> so if you were bradshaw and you saw you could have gotten down on your knees -- >> he messed up. >> what would you have done? do you think you would have known? it was like i want the it htoucn but i don't know what to do. >> reporter: they talk about this stuff and cris collinsworth had been saying on air they need not to score because they can run it down to one second and kick the equivalent of an extra point. the key play, of course -- >> manningham. do we have manningham? that was unbelievable catch. >> reporter: the other key play, though, andrew, when brady hit wes welker at the 20 yard line on the previous drive before the giants got the ball and it was an awkward catch. welker is a great receiver, usually catches it. had he done that, they would have certainly scored a field goal and would have been much more difficul

john harwood has details. john. >> kayla, the president's in wisconsin. a state he carried in 2008. very much wants to carry this time. he's been greeted by scott walker, the conservative republican governor there. but he's riding a wave of increased optimism about the economy. look at the numbers from this "new york times" cbs poll just out today. his job approval rating up to 50%, that's up 3 points from the previous poll. the proportion saying the nation's on the right track is also up several points. so are the proportions saying the economy is getting better. still, weak numbers but improving. and that's the point. the president is rising as that economic optimism rises. he's expected to go to master lock, a company he praised in his state of the union address, as one that was insourcing jobs, an example of what he's trying to encourage with american business. and he is going to be making those remarks knowing that at this moment at least a lot could change. the wind's at his back, sue. >> thanks, john. appreciate it. straight ahead, the stock market dropping just in the last h

our chief washington correspondent, john harwood, joins us. john john, neez are not headlines the romney camp would like to be fighting today. and it points to the idea he does not galvanize a lot of support in the real core of his own party. >> absolutely it does. we knew mitt romney might have a stumble last night and that rick santorum might breakthrough. these are small turnout contests in colorado and minnesota. they were caucuses, which involved the most zealous and activist people within the party. but look how bad this night was. take a look at the numbers in missouri mitt romney lost better than 2-to-1 to rick santorum. in minnesota he lost better than 2-to-1. and in colorado a state where the romney campaign thought they would have an advantage in the end, he lost by a significant margin to rick santorum. excellent night for santorum. gingrich didn't score but i talked to one of his advisers and he said the republican base is in revolt against the prospect of a mitt romney nomination. and mitt romney has to get up today to change the

joining me now is john harwood. this is about business, but it's a meet and greet.know you for lack of a better description. >> reporter: exactly. happy valentine's day. this is a meet and greet that is looking forward because vice president xi is expected to become the chinese leader in 2013. it's an important getting to know you visit after vice president biden had lunch there. that is likely to be an issue in the campaign because mitt romney, the republican candidate has proposed a tougher line on china than the president has. he'll see if mitt romney says anything about this visit and whether that becomes an issue in the coming days and weeks. >> there was discussion regarding china's human rights record. >> reporter: that's right. that's among the issues that vice president biden offered straight talk. both the president and the vice president consistently in their meetings with china said fwhewed to have a relationship of mutual benefit. also expects more from china. security is one area. still have outstanding issues with iran and north korea and on trade and