our chief washington correspondent john harwood has some of the latest numbers. hi, john. >> hi, tyler. we are getting very close to election day and our pollsters tell us some of the concrete is beginning to harden on this race. let's take a look at two pressures significant to the race, one to the romney argument, one to the obama argument. when you ask are you better off than you were four years ago when barack obama became president, you see a split. 38% say yes, i'm better off. 41%, 3% more, say no. they are worse off, 21% say they are still the same. but barack obama wants to make it a forward-looking race about the next four years and when you ask who is better prepared to lead the country for the next four, you see president obama ahead 47%, that's distinct. mitt romney talks about americans, 47% who pay no income taxes being dependent on the government, look at these leads it mitt romney has among senior citizens, 15 percentage points, those who say he is better prepared to lead the country, five points among people with incomes of 30,000 to 50,000. why d

we want to bring in cnbc's chief washington correspondent john harwood. john, good evening. heard mitt romney say he doesn't need a turnaround in the campaign. but aren't people suggesting that even in his party? >> reporter: absolutely they are, kate. we showed in the poll he was down by five. in all six of the battleground states we have surveyed in the last two weeks barack obama has been ahead outside the margin of error. i talked to one of romney's strategies today. he pointed to tracking polls that showed mitt romney even. one thing clear through the blizzard of information is that mitt romney needs to regain ownership of the economic issue, persuade americans he has a credible plan to turn the economy around. we have seen him slipping on the issue. that's the way -- the path he has to victory. >> romney released taxes last night on a friday evening. does that put that issue to rest now? >> it doesn't. democrats are saying what he's hiding is more important than what he has disclosed. but he has said that's all that the public is going to get. ann romney said the same

john harwood in charlotte. larry, real pleasure. we're back tomorrow 4:00 a.m.n cnbc for "worldwide exchange." be sure to tune into "squawk box" tomorrow 6:00 a.m. eastern. complete coverage. you have the jobs report, you have kernan's comments, larry and i are going to get some sleep. have a good night, everybody. see you tomorrow morning. >>> i'm jim cramer. welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game. >> firms are going to go out of business, and he's nuts. they're nuts. they know nothing. >> i always like to say there's a bull market somewhere. >> "mad money," you can't afford to miss it. >>> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i just want more days like today. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. this business of stocks isn't politics. it's not like a presidential campaign where each candidate tries to explain why you might be better or worse off than you were four years ago. no. today's rally where the dow rocketed 245 points, the s&p rose 2.04%, an

it's law that just makes sense. >>> i'm john harwood in washington.esidential candidate mitt romney has just now released details of his 2011 tax return and some returns going further back, although he didn't release the actual returns further back. for 2011, mitt romney now estimates he made $13 million earlier in the year. he said it would be higher, about $20 million. then he paid $1.9 million in federal taxes for an effective tax rate of 14%. what's interesting is that earlier in the year in august, in fact, had been asked whether he'd ever paid a lower effective federal tax rate than 13% which is what he paid in 2010. his rate would have been lower than that but his accountants decided not to claim all of the $4 million in charitable deductions that he had made. that kept that effective rate at 14%. now to quell some of the demand for returns further back, they released statistics about 20 years of tax returns. said over that 20-year period mitt romney paid an average effective federal tax rate of $20 million, and never below 13%, simon. so this

we want to bring in cnbc chief washington correspondent john harwood. the conventional wisdom has been that the economy was going to drive this election. is that still the case? >> it is still the case though not in the way it was earlier in the year. democrats work hard to turn this from a referendum on economic management to a choice between two visions. he has gotten a home made bounce firming up support with young voters, women. >> do the debates become more critical for romney assuming this bounce lasts a little longer than he would like? >> no question about it. i talked to a senior republican strategist today who said it is hard to take out an incumbent president who is personally popular. the last chance for romney to do that will be in the debates in october. >> john harwood, thank you. >>> another big story. the severe weather that struck the eastern seaboard this weekend including tornadoes here in new york city. we have a report from michelle franzen. >> reporter: up and down the east coast cleanup today after a series of violent storms. >>

john harwood joins us with the details. good evening, john. >> good evening. bill clinton's speech represented a hand-off to president obama. he gave that full endorsement of the president's economic policy, said no president could have solved the problems in just four years then walked on stage and gave a hug to president obama who, after bill clinton finished speaking. the excerpts we have indicate that the president will strike a tone of realism. he said out's going to take a few years to solve problems that they have spent decades building up. he said, you have elected me to tell you the truth. we need bold experimentation fdr used. obama aids tell me they are going to do more to sketch out the path forward in a second term. not a policy list. it's not a state of the union speech. he'll try to give americans the sense of what they will get if they are patient. where he's going to take the country on policy. we'll see if this last night of the democratic convention can be as successful as the first two. i talked to a republican congressman today. they said

by the way, thank you, john harwood. we'll move on with the panel. will today's release finally satisfy the dems? here's howard dean, former vermont governor and former presidential candidate and jimmy of the american enterprise institute along with jonathan calegio of american crossroads. they're spelling it all out. you should have seen how they spelled it all out for me. howard dean, and i call him governor and i call him hodie and they get to be called things. my first is you've seen these now and i'll ask this a lot tonight. you've got a gieo guy in society who paid $2 million in taxes and gave $4 million to charity, should we, a, wish we had more guys like this in society or b, wish we didn't have any guy like this in society? his overall rate on what he gave to charity or taxes is 40%, governor, good or bad? >> that's not the issue. the issue is how truthful is he and the problem is he did go back and manipulate the tax rate list in the past year. nbc ran a clip of the evening news tonight of him saying i don't know, last july or something --

and that's what cnbc's own john harwood joins us live with the details. good evening, john. >> good evening, larry. the former governor of virginia and former democratic chairman is speaking behind me. this is the week when democrats begin to counter what they heard from republicans last week. and to answer that question, try to make the argument that president obama has done some good for the economy and that mitt romney would take it backwards in the next four years. now, the president is going to get some help from bill clinton tomorrow night in his speech in prime time. he's going to speak on thursday. but today, just like mitt romney a week ago, he's going to get some help from his wife who because she's nonpolitical is much more popular. president obama made reference to that today. >> i know that whatever i say here today, it's going to be at best a distant second to the speech you will hear tonight from the star of the obama family, michelle obama. you know, this is just like a relay and you start off with the fastest person. >> now, of course, you

cnbc's own john harwood previews the former president's dnc address. good evening, john. >> good evening, larry. the democratic convention is getting fired up by speakers behind me. the main event is bill clinton who will bring full circle a relationship that was strained with barack obama when barack obama and hillary clinton ran against each other four years ago. clinton is here because nobody has more credibility in politics on the economy and nobody can frame an argument better, as you see in this ad that began airing last month for president obama. >> the republican plan is to cut more taxes on upper income people and go back to deregulation. that's what got us in trouble. president obama has a plan to rebuild america from the ground up. >> larry, we have excerpts from what bill clinton will say tonight. he's going to say if you want a winner-take-all, you're on your own society vote republican. if uh you want a society of shared prosperity and we are all in this together, vote for president obama. this convention will hear from elizabeth warren, t

cnbc's own john harwood has the details, good evening, john. >> ever since both party conventions we'vecused on president obama's bounce in national polls. now we have swing say it numbers from the nbc "wall street journal" maris poll and they're good for president obama. he's taken a clear lead in three important battle grounds. first, the state of florida with 29 electoral votes, president obama leads romney 49-44%. ohio with 18 electoral votes, president obama leads by even more, 50-43% for mitt romney. in the state of virginia, president obama leads 49% to 44%, again over mitt romney. now, all three of these are states that were carried by president obama in 2008. mitt romney needs to take at least two of them away. maris pollster concluded this way. he said this election is now about mobilization rather than persuasion because so many voters are locked in and also, you'd rather be in president obama's shoes than mitt romney's at this point in these three critical states. back to you. >> many thanks to john harwood in the update of the maris poll. remember, i need to go to the websi

john harwood has the full story. good evening. >> good evening, larry.ne of the enduring frustrations of reporters and some voters is the inability to get candidates to specify their positions on some important issues. the reason why they don't do it is pretty simple, to maximize the number of people who agree with them and enemies they make. case in point, mitt romney on "meet the press," perfectly willing to talk about how much he wants to reduce tax rates but won't get specific on the loopholes he'll close to make that happen. >> where are the specifics how you get to this map? isn't that an issue? >> the specifics are these, which is those principles i described are the heart of my policy and i've indicated as well that contrary to what the democrats are saying, i won't increase the tax burden on middle income families. it would absolutely be wrongdoing that. i had the experience of being a governor and demonstrated i have the capacity to balance budgets and balanced them four years ago and cut taxes 19 times in massachusetts. >> can you give me an e

cnbc's john harwood joins us on the phone. john, what can you tell us about this?porter: well this is a videotape, larry, that has mitt romney exhorting backers to support him because the people who don't pay income taxes won't vote for him, the republican candidate. now, of course, this is not correct because many of those people who pay no income taxes are elderly and romney is doing very well. but this is something that has the potential to become a major story in the campaign, what you have is the obama campaign and democrats quickly saying he's expressing contempt for those people who don't pay income taxes, expressing contempt for people in need. romney campaign put out a statement in response to this saying we're concerned for all americans, especially those dependent on government assistance and we'll see where this goes from here. >> you know, john, just quickly, government dependency has been an issue. it is roughly half of the households in the united states are getting government funds of one kind or another. is this the trap that romney ran into? >> re

our chief washington correspondent john harwood has that part of the story. john, i have to think that today's decision is sure to rile up the so-called sound money folks, right? >> no question about it. we'll hear from larry kudlow about it tonight, our friend, on his show at 7:00 on cnbc. but i think this is mostly an intramural argument among republicans on economics. this is not something ha is going to have a broader political ramification. the other swing voter in a place like ohio or florida or colorado might know who ben bernanke is, might have heard his name. has no idea what the fed is doing. this is a question of what is the economic effect in the near term. and if you get a bounce in the market and if there is some felt improvement in the economy, that's going to help obama. but my guess is that given how baked in to the cake negative attitudes about the economy are, how badly people are feeling, how weak the job market is, it's not likely to have much short term impact -- except in the market. that will cheer some investors but i doubt it is going

john harwood on the numbers from the swing state. >>> and who has the buying power mow? our first look at what the holiday shopping season looks like and new data on key consumer sentiment numbers returning to the car market. we begin the hour at the nyse. my partner for the day again, simon hobbs. hi. >> good afternoon. two years ago when there were protes in europe it sent the american markets tumbling. that's not the case today. however the clear escalation on the violence on protests in europe is a reason to pause. for that we join our chief international correspondent who is monitoring the unrest in spain and greece. >> we are waiting to see if there will be more unrest this hour. we have been monitoring on twitter calls for people to come out and protest again, similar to what we saw last night. that would be troublesome. there was a lot of violence in madrid as thousands of protesters tried to surround the parliament shouting, let us in, we want to evict you. the reason they are protesting is because on thursday the government will reveal budget reforms, changes t

so, john harwood, give us an overview. how did the president do last night? the president did well last night because just as romney's core challenge was to deal with how people viewed him, try to get his favorablety numbers up, president obama's core challenge is dealing with the disappointment that so many people had and that's why he had this sort of it's a long road, it's not going to be easy. he was trying to reset those expeck tases. one republican strategist thought he moved the needle a little bit on that. talked to your colleague yesterday. they' their convention was better than ours. viewership's down. we'll see if that happens. my suspicion is that debates are going to be moved. >> i think quickly, we got to go. is this convention going to move numbers? >> i sure think so by the end of the day. >> you think so? >> obama strategist told me last night, we hope for one or two. maybe get three or four. >> what do you think, mark? >> four or five. >> you guys agree with with me. this is going to move the the needle. >> four. >> governor martin o'malley,

chief washington correspondent john harwood now with the details. over to you, john. >> reporter: maria, mitt romney is acting today to try to diffuse a controversially that has dogged his campaigns some months and to do it on a week when he's receiving heat over the 47% fund-raising comments. the top line showed he made $13 million in 2011, paid $1.9 million in federal taxes for an effective rate of about 14%. he also released a ten-year summery of the effective tax rate that he had paid, said he paid an average of 20% of his income over that 20-year period and never paid lower than 13%. now to put this in context. the average american pays an effective tax rate of 11% on their returns. mitt romney's overall return or effective rate average is lower than the average millionaire however. the average million plus income filer pays about 25% in effective rate, mitt romney is less than that, but interesting lit return raise an issue with something that mitt romney said earlier this year which was that he said that -- americans would not want a president

right to john harwood we go and new developments on the mitt romney tax return release. over to you, john. >> reporter: maria, i just went over the romney return, which is very long at 379 pages with clint stretch, had a distinguished policy career at deloitte and made a few observations i wanted to pass on. first of all, this is a return that shows the power of being able to pay taxes at that lower capital gains rate than ordinary income rate. mitt romney had $5 million in income that was subject to regular tax rates but because of the deductions he had he was able to wipe that out and pay essentially only taxes at the 15% capital gains tax rate, and when you look at statement that his accountants put out, that over a 20-year period that he paid a higher rate than the 14% for this year, 20% as an average rate over that rate, keep in mind that for 11 of those years the capital gains rate was higher. for seven years it was 28%, for four years it was 20%, so mitt romney's tax returns over the years are likely to flow up and down with where the capital gains rate was at that

we'll ask john harwood next. a passionate belief, and the foundation on which merrill lynch has been built. today, our financial advisors lead from a new position of strength. together with bank of america, they have access to more resources than ever before. a steadfast commitment to help you achieve your financial goals in life. that's the power of the right advisor. that's merrill lynch. >>> welcome back to the program. there's lots of buzz this morning about a leaked report from the troika suggesting they might impose a six-day work week on greece as a condition of the country's bailouts. we've been asking viewers what they think about this move. jeff tweets in to say, a six-day work week isn't fair. don't punish workers for their government's mismanagement and stupidity. the troika should impose a 70-hour work week on greece to make up for what he says is s t centuries of lacking. >>> you can e-mail us at worldwidecnbc.com or tweet us. this is an issue that's going to stay, keeping people's mind busy all wee

john harwood is exactly right. t i do think this will hurt in this election. there is a tremendous sense in the middle class that we've got to make some historic decisions about what kind of government we're going to have and make the expend tuitures and revenues ma. it is really naive but i think specifics would help. >> specifics certainly would help. people want solutions here. we're getting a lot of accusations, very few solutions. is it possible they're out of solutions, out of ideas here? >> i don't know if it is about them being out of ideas. candidate romney, governor romney, is -- he's loathe to talk about specifics because he's looking to tap in to kind of a visceral negative reaction towards government and government planning and engineering and experimentation. and the president can't really talk about just anything else besides extension of his current plans because to do so and talk about new ideas and new plans would be an admission of failure which he can't do going into an election. i think in the election season as much as david said he'd lik

cnbc's own john harwood joins us now with the details. good evening, john. >> reporter: good evening, larry. a rare day in which the campaign trail was dominated more by foreign affairs than by domestic economic affairs. you had mitt romney out there taking advantage of remarks the president made on "60 minutes" the night before when he talked about some of the foreign policy events as bumps in the road or noise out there. mitt romney in colorado, did an interview with nbc's peter alexander, says that's not how he thinks of those events at all. here's mitt romney. >> the president characterized as bumps in the road the developments in the middle east. we've just had an ambassador assassinated. egypt has elected a muslim brotherhood person as president. iran is on the cusp of having a nuclear capability. we have tumult in syria and also in pakistan. i don't consider these bumps in the road. >> reporter: now it was a natural turn to foreign policy because world leaders are gathering in new york for the united nations general assembly, includ

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john harwood is cnbc's chief washington correspondent. john, good morning. good to see you. >> good morning, lester. >> we've got some new approval numbers out to show the president's jumped seven points to 52%. hasn't seen a rating like that since the killing of bin laden, and by the way, these numbers were recorded before he spoke at the convention and before the jobs numbers came out, which leads to the question, are we becoming numb to bad job numbers in this country? and if that's the case, how does that affect this campaign for the next 59 days? >> i don't know if it's numbness, lester, but we know that it's a weak economy and have for a long time. in fact, that was the premise of the president's nomination acceptance speech. this is a hard pack. he was trying to deal with the disappointment of so many voters in 2008 who voted for him, have been unhappy with the results, and he's trying to keep them with him. mitt romney had a different goal at his convention. he was trying to make those voters like him better. but everyone knows that we are going to b

john harwood is here now with more on that thrust. >> reporter: president obama and mitt romney both say they're free traders at bottom but we're in a close election. they're fighting over the issue of jobs, fighting for the votes of blue collar workers. mitt romney says that he's going to get tough on china but declaring them a currency manipulator on day one of his presidency. president obama says i'm walking the walk right now. today his administration filed a trade complaint with the world trade organization against chinese for allegedly subsidizing auto parts. here's the president today in cincinnati. >> these are subsidies that directly harm working men and women on the assembly lines in ohio and michigan and across the midwest. your senator sherrod brown has fought as hard as anybody to stop this and we are going to stop it. it is not right, it is against the rules and we will not let it stand. >> reporter: now mitt romney is trailing in the state of ohio. that's president obama's trying to reinforce his lead. but mitt romney's trying to deal with another issue that is his poo

john harwood joins us now with all the details. good evening, john. >> good evening, larry. you know, in the wake of that 47% video last week, mitt romney's got a new message and that's to tell middle class people as well as the poor that he cares about them. he did it on the stump in ohio today, he also did it in an interview with our nbc colleague ron allen just a few minutes ago. here's mitt romney. >> i served as a pastor of a congregation with people of all different backgrounds and economic circumstances that i care very deeply about the american people and people of different socioeconomic circumstances. and i think throughout this campaign, as well, we've talked about my record in massachusetts. don't forget, i've got everybody in my state insured. >> and here's some numbers, larry, that show you why that is mitt romney's message rather than tax cuts. you can't compare in the state of ohio where a new york times cbs poll shows mitt romney down by ten percentage points, president obama ahead on the economy, 6 in 10 voters, nearly 6 in 10, that is, said mitt romney's p

let's get to john harwood on that. john?we have new results from the poll and they show that after both party conventions president obama has taken a clear lead over mitt romney he leads 50-45%. there are three clear building blocks to that success. the second is progress by president obama on key issues he holds a significant lead over handling medicare and is even with mitt romney on handling the economy which is supposed to be mitt romney's strong suit. he has had success in preframin for a choice for the future. some say they are worse off by a double digit margin. some say barack obama is better prepared to lead the country than mitt romney. >> won wall street tonight a major change on goldman sachs. david vinier a 32 year veteran at goldman will join the board. currently co head of the securities division. >> thank you very much. coming up next a warning. if obama is granted a second term. there is a regular term. [ male announcer ] when a major hospital wanted to provide better employee benefits while balancing the co

once again, live from washington, subs teuting for gwen ifill, john harwood of cnbc and the "new york times" -- once again, live from washington. moderator gwen ifill. gwen: good evening. this was a week of politics, uprising, action and reaction. and today sadness as bodies of four americans returned home after being killed in beng hasy -- benghazi, lickia. >> there has bain difficult week for the state department and for our country. we've seen the heavy assault on our post in benghazi that took the lives of those brave men. we've seen rage and violence directed at american embassies over an awful internet video that we had nothing to do with. it is hard for the american people to make sense of that because it is senseless. the people of egypt, libya, yemen, and tunisia did not trade the tyranny of a dictator for the tyranny of a mob. gwen: but the protests have spread as this google map shows. throughout the middle east and beyond. you can look and see -- it's pakistan, in london, it's everywhere all over the region and beyond. what happened in benghazi was tragic, but is this some

john harwood of cnbc and "the new york times" and sam youngman of reuters. >> award-winning reporting and analysis, covering history as it happens. live from our nation's capital, this is "washington week with gwen ifill and national journal" , produced in association with "national journal." cooperate funding is provided by -- >> this rock has never stood still. since 1875 we've been there for our clients through good times and bad. when their needs changed we were there to meet them. through the years from insurance to investment management, from real estate to retirement solutions, we've developed new ideas for the financial challenges ahead. this hock has never stood still, and that's one thing that will never change. prudential. ♪ >> wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. norfolk southern. one line, infinite possibilities. >> additional corporate funding is provided by -- boeing and american queen steamboat company. proud to support "washington week" on pbs. additional funding is provided by the annenberg foundation, the corporation for public broadcasting and by cont

yesterday john harwood, were you watching?cterized it -- romney late in the fourth quarter and he's down two touchdowns. is that how you -- >> i think it was a touchdown and a field goal. >> and i said who's the quarterback? and i think he said, i don't know, sanchez. so we're screwed. >> the democrats are selling a line. i had nantucket this summer with about the number one democratic operative in the clinton administration. he told me for over two hours, it's over. forget it. what are you guys trying for? >> why even have an election? >> why even -- we're in, we're in. i mean, this is a constant -- now the challenge for the republicans is they've got to get this thing out of whether or not romney said 47% or obama said that egypt was an ally or not, we've got to get a big, big picture. he's got to, in my opinion, he's got to take america and paint 2016 with him there and with obama there. here's what we'll look like in '14 and '16. and he's got to go right down the list. he's got to go here's what my tax plan is. and my tax

chief foreign affairs correspondent andrea mitchell and cnbc's chief washington correspondent john harwoodandrea, first, israel wants a specific commitment from the u.s. on when it would take action against iran. is the administration essentially afraid of being painted into a corner? >> exactly, lester, israel is asking president obama to give iran the kind of specific ultimatum the administration officials would say tie the president's hands and remove any ambiguity of letting the iranians dictate the timetable for action. it would also bind u.s. military action to israel's assessment of when iran is passed that point of no return and their assessment is different from the cia's timetable. a lot of this friction, though, is rooted in the fact that these two leaders just do not trust each other. add the fact that the rest of the region is now in conflict and we're in the closing weeks of a presidential election and you have a volatile mix. >> let's talk about that election, andrea. i want to turn to john. four years ago it was candidate barack obama being attacked for a lack of foreign po

joining me tonight in charlotte, john harwood of cnbc and "the new york times," karen tumulty of washington, d.c., jeff sell eny of "the new york times" and alexis simmon dinger of real clear politics. >> this is a special election 2012 edition of "washington week" with gwen ifill. produced in negotiation with national journal. corporate funding for "washington week" in charlotte, north carolina, is provided by -- >> this rock has never stood still. since 1875 we've been there for our clients through good times and bad. when their needs changed, we were there to meet them. through the years from insurance to investment management, from real estate to retirement solutions, we've developed new ideas for the financial eschadleng. ahe this rock hasas never stood sti. and that's one thing that will never change. prudential. >> wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. norfolk suffolk, one line, infinite possibility. >> additional corporate funding is provided by -- boeing, and american queen boat steam company. proud to support "washington week" on pbs. additional funding is provided by

chief foreign affairs correspondent andrea mitchell and cnbc's chief washington correspondent john harwoodandrea, first, israel wants a specific commitment from the u.s. on when it would take action against iran. is the administration essentially afraid of being painted into a corner? >> exactly, lester, israel is asking president obama to give iran the kind of specific ultimatum the administration officials would say tie the president's hands and remove any ambiguity of letting the iranians dictate the timetable for action. it would also bind u.s. military action to israel's assessment of when iran is passed that point of no return and their assessment is different from the cia's timetable. a lot of this friction, though, is rooted in the fact that these two leaders just do not trust each other. add the fact that the rest of the region is now in conflict and we're in the closing weeks of a presidential election and you have a volatile mix. >> let's talk about that election, andrea. i want to turn to john. four years ago it was candidate barack obama being attacked for a lack of foreign po

cnbc's john harwood joins us now with more. john?lked at 6:00 and 7:00 about some of the things the president was trying to accomplish in this speech in this arena last night to appeal for patience as you just mentioned, to deal with the disappointment of some of his supporters who found their hopes were not fulfilled in the first term, to try to inspire democrats to turn out and defend the role of government. but the president also made the case that despite republican claims to the contrary, he does in fact want to pursue a balanced deficit reduction strategy along the lines of the simpson/bowles commission that's gotten so much attention. here's the president. >> i'm still eager to reach an agreement based on the principles of my bipartisan debt commission. no party has a monopoly on wisdom. no democracy works without compromise. i want to get this done and we can get it done. but when governor romney and his friends in congress tell us we can somehow lower our deficits, spending trillions more on new tax breaks for the wealthy, w