and john heilemann writes for "new york" magazine. gentleman, let me just go to you. steve, you're the republican here. heilemann, you cover this party as well as the other party. chris christie, my hunch, my premise tonight. i think he's got something. it's irritability. it's like, don't mess with me. you take a shot at me, i'll shoot back at you. it's the angry guy or woman in traffic. life is congested today. we're angry. he's got that sense. >> he's real. he's tough, he says what he thinks. and i think the american people, who as you accurately pointed out, they're in a very bad mood. they think the country's going in the wrong direction. and they look at washington and they see a giant weasel pack. you know, in the senate, the house, politicians of both parties. he's someone who has approached the problems of his state with utter fearlessness, unafraid to take a position. and i think that people are just absolutely craving an authentic leader. and i think that's why he's resonating. >> that's why i think there may be something in this for president obama.

. >> richard wolffe and john heilemann, thank you both very much for joining me tonight. >> thanks, lawrence. >>> coming up, we fast forward to election night november 6, 2012. tonight the last word officially projects president obama will win reelection 433 days from now. >>> and later, frank rich on our country ten years after september 11. why instead of being a united country we've ended up with what he calls a busted one. [ female announcer ] what if your natural beauty could be flawless too? discover aveeno positively radiant tinted moisturizers with scientifically proven soy complex and natural minerals. give you sheer coverage instantly, then go on to even skin tone in four weeks. aveeno tinted moisturizers. yeah. well we're the two active ingredients in zegerid otc. i'm omeprazole. and i'm sodium bicarbonate. just one pill a day ... gives you 24-hour relief. & one mission. two ingredients heartburn solved. >>> coming up, why one historian says president obama is definitely going to win reelection, it's called the 13 keys to the white house and it has predicted every presidential ele

thank you, john heilemann, and thank you, jonathan martin. up next, guess who crashed the party when rick perry came to harlem the other day? that's coming up in the side show. a surprising visitor there. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. [ beep ing ] ♪ hush, little baby ♪ don't you cry ♪ soon the sun ♪ is going to shine ♪ [ male announcer ] toyota presents the prius family. ♪ walk if i want, talk if i want ♪ [ male announcer ] there's the original one... the bigger one... the smaller one... and the one that plugs in. they're all a little different, just like us. and started earning loads of points. you got a weather balloon with points? yes, i did. [ man ] points i could use for just about anything. ♪ keep on going in this direction. take this bridge over here. there it is. [ man ] so i used mine to get a whole new perspective. ♪ [ male announcer ] write your story with the citi thankyou premier card, with no point caps, and points that don't expire. get started at thankyoucard.citi.com. and see katie before she goes home. [ male an

thank you, john heilemann, and thank you, jonathan martin.up next, guess who crashed the party when rick perry came to harlem the other day? that's coming up in the side show. a surprising visitor there. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. >>> back to "hardball." now to the sideshow. first up, taking it to extremes. can't say we didn't see something like this coming after president obama's speech yesterday. called wealthy americans to pay their fair share of taxes. well, not long after the president's speech, it was the very face of all things, anti-tax, grover norquist who tweeted, "obama's new strategy to divide america, get the kulaks." that was a not so subtle way of comparing the president to josef stalin. stalin used the more often known peasant class as the kulaks as the scapegoat. really? well, here's another far-right attempt to frame the president as some type of foreigner who doesn't really know america. good ole grover norquist. on a lighter note, couldn't be hard to find a lighter note than that. party crasher. that's what

let's go to john heilemann.n, it looks to me like two weeks ago before rick perry got the dunce cap put on his head, which sits firmly on it right now, there was no talk of adding to this field like steve just said. everyone seemed content and satisfied with who was running. it's changed overnight. >> well, chris, it's been the case for most of the year that there's been talk about other people getting in, including chris christie, so this is not totally new. it seemed when perry got in that that talk quieted down for a little while, but there's no question that his weakness in his performance in a series of debates is what's reignited these talks right now. when it comes to christie, my reporting indicates, that he has been taking it much more seriously in the last couple of weeks, that his -- his switch to some extent, nine months ago he was saying things privately to people like i don't want to run. i think in the last couple of weeks, he has become more enlivened to the possibility that maybe he actually doe

thank you, john heilemann, and thank you, jonathan martin.next, guess who crashed the party when rick perry came to harlem the other day? that's coming up in the side show. a surprising visitor there. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. for dentists, the choice is clear. fact is, more dental professionals brush with an oral-b toothbrush than any other brush. trust the brush more dentists and hygienists use, oral-b. all at 150 calories or less, there's definitely a temptations for you. unless you're one of those people who doesn't like delicious stuff. new temptations. it's the first jell-o that's just for adults. but with allstate, bundling policies is easy and can save you money. [ woman ] you should try this instead. thank you, yeah... now she should be an allstate agent. shop less. get more. make one call to an allstate agent. today i own 165 wendy's restaurants. and i get my financing from ge capital. but i also get stuff that goes way beyond banking. we not only lend people money, we help them save it. [ junior ] ge engineers foun

. >> john heilemann, is there a way for anyone to win the scheduling -- the fight about scheduling a speech? >> i think in the narrow sense, there are ways in which the white house will try to capitalize, but i do agree with richard, most americans who don't watch cable television and read the twitter sphere will look at this and say i can't believe with 9.5% unemployment and 15% real unemployment these people can't get it together to schedule a speech and agree on something that basic and pedestrian. >> richard wolffe and john heilemann, thank you both very much for joining me tonight. >> thanks, lawrence. >>> coming up, we fast forward to election night november 6, 2012. tonight the last word officially projects president obama will win reelection 433 days from now. >>> and later, frank rich on our country ten years after september 11. why instead of being a united country we've ended up with what he calls a busted one. [ female announcer ] what if your natural beauty could be flawless too? discover aveeno positively radiant tinted moisturizers with scientifically proven soy comple

president's relationship with israel the cover story of this week's "new york" magazine, written by john heilemann joining us from austin, texas. hey, john. you write in the piece that the president really has not been that tough on israel, that he really has been its strongest ally. >> well, certainly i think the notion of what i tried to knock down in the piece is the notion is a notion that has caught on among a lot of jewish voters in the united states, we've seen the president's approval rating among jewish voters fall from 83% at the time of his inauguration down to 53% last month. this notion that president obama is anti-israel, not a friend of israel, somehow betrayed israel, a lot of things rick perry is giving voice to today in new york, that has caught on. i think the big push in my piece was to try to make the argument that although the president has certainly tried to apply tough love with israel, he has been as stallworth an ally when israel needed an alley as it does in the u.n. and as it has on several owe occasions in the past we could talk about as any president in the recent pas

to john heilemann who wrote "game change" starting with the obama situation. looks to me like president obama is in serious trouble of the american people beginning, if they haven't already to change their minds about him. >> well, yeah, chris, i think that's right and i think the fact is that president obama has been personally popular throughout the time that he's been in office, and as the economy has stayed bad and in some respects got a little better but now it seems to have gotten worse with zero job growth whatsoever in august, always a question had those economic numbers would start to weigh him down. start to weigh down his approval rating more broadly. that's what we're starting to see happen now. people are beginning to think that the president is a good man who tried his best over the course of the first 2.5 years of his presidency, but what he has tried has not worked and are at least, at a minimum, open to looking for other alternatives and other solutions. >> john harris, good luck tomorrow night. break a leg, as they say in show business. have

. >> where does that put him in the lineup of republicans this year, john, heilemann? would he be in fact the toughest opponent for barack obama? what do the people in the white house think? >> i think it's very hard to know. as we've seen with rick perry, it's very high bar when you enter the presidential field and the scrutiny is very high. chris christie has been very quick on his feet and compelling political performer but as rick perry showed, you get on the big national stage with the bright lights and tough scrutiny, you can wilt fast. in terms of the kind of appeal christie has which is not so much idealogical as it is very pragmatic and based in the notion of getting your arms around the fund amountle problems and pulling together to do it in a way not the traditional partisan way, i think that makes him very compelling actor, conceivably. because he's a northeastern republican who can win in states where very few republicans can. >> even though it's early in the game, when we think about four years ago at this time as our pal chuck todd was pointing out last

also with us is "new york" mass sine's john heilemann. look at the first big set of number, gentlemen. these are amazing. start with the bleak numbers for president obama from our nbc/"wall street journal" poll. here's a new low. when it comes to job approval, the best number you can have, just 44% approve of how he's handling his job as president. 51%, now a majority, disapprove. also a personal low when it comes to his handling of the economy. no surprise. 37% approve. i don't know who they are. 59% disapprove. 54% think he's facing a long-term setback unlikely to get better. a number of pollsters say it's dangerous for him. like the number for president george w. bush after katrina., seven in ten of us, say they still like him personally. i want to go to john heilemann who wrote "game change" starting with the obama situation. looks to me like president obama is in serious trouble of the american people beginning, if they haven't already to change their minds about him. >> well, yeah, chris, i think that's right and i think the fact is

john heilemann i want to talk about in the this way. first about the presentation, is this the old obama back? has he grabbed the initiative with presentation first? secondly, talk about the economy a bit and then the politics. but the presentation first. >> well, charlie, i think... i mean tonally the most striking thing about it was how direct it was and how feisty it was both in terms ofhe president's tenor was very direct, the catch phrases from the speech tt people will remember are not poetry, they are, you know, "you should pass this right away. m going put this in front of you, if you pass this, this will happen." very consequentialist. and i think because both of the tone and some of the substance which i know we're going to talk about more, it was a partisan speech. that was speech that was designed-- and i think it has, from the what the reaction has been in the immediate moment after the speech-- it was designed to stir up his base. liberals are very happy with this speech right now. again, on the substance and also on the t

"morning joe." >> it is pretty out there. >> gorgeous. >> beautiful day. >> mark halperin and john heilemanne marxist side of new york ci city. what happened out on long island last night in the special election? >> well, the republicans took a seat that the democrats have held since 1922. i believe. in a race that republicans attempted very vigorously to nationalize and turn into a referendum on barack obama, a weak democratic candidate lost, but the republicans, i think, will claim with some justification that this is a canary in a coal mine. >> republicans lost new york 26 last year. is it the same thing? >> exactly right. >> is it the same thing or different? >> look, you have to start with the fact that all of these off year elections, special elections, they have limited predictive value just in general, but to the extent that democrats claim that there was -- we had justification last year, that their candidate had run very strongly against the republican proposals on medicare, he tried to nationalize that election. there was evidence in the polling that that showed that had been effe

with us onset mike barnicle, also from "new york" magazine john heilemann, also harold ford jr. you know, i thought to myself, john heilemann, a fiscal conservative, never voted for a tax increase in my life, but michele bauchmann, she super sizes me. you should not have to pay any of your money to the government. who knew? who knew that for all of those years the government's were paying taxes that you could have bake sales? >> who knew that michele bauchmann could get to the more libertarian right of ron paul. she didn't realize. no government, nothing, let's just shut the whole thing down. i don't know what she wants to be president of. >> we had this fox debate last night. and i've got to say, mitt romney's looking pretty darn good. >> yeah. >> he is looking pretty darn good. i never thought i'd say that. >> he is looking very good. and on the other side, you've got governor rick "stop me before i debate again" perry. the contrast is startling. for mitt romney, it was a huge night. each debate is a bigger and bigger night for romney, i think. >> t.j., i want you to get a sho

. >> john heilemann, you agree? you had all 50 states and all the money you needed. >> i think the hurdles are hard fort reason pat says. there's a lot of partisan idea in the country. you see it working to about 30%. with the right amount of money targeted in the right states, if you got the right 30% of the vote, you could be a player, but it's very, very narrow needle to thread. you're not going to see a third party candidate get 45% of the vote in our country. >> you agree, steve? >> i do. i happen to have dinner with america's favorite mayer, and he says -- >> rahm emanuel? >> yes. and the data doesn't support it. you've got all this math. even if you were to get that 30%, you probably throw the election to the house where you have no possibility whatsoever of emerging. >> coming up next, editor of the nation, katrina vanden heuvel and irshad manji will be here. and finance over europe's debt crisis. we're going to check on the futures live to new york stock exchange. let's get to the weather with meteorologist

i think it was john heilemann that said what's not answered in the book is what changed dick cheney from man who was seen by everybody as the moderate voice of republicanism in washington, d.c., to a man who seemed to morph overnight into darth vader. some said they don't know dick cheney anymore. what caused the transformation, first of all, and how tough has it been for you and your family to deal with that transformation? >> it wasn't tough to deal with the transformation. after being vice president for a few years, subject of all the jokes on leno and letterman, you need to have a pretty thick skin to get up every morning. i never let it bother me. we used to joke about it. i have a great picture that the staff took of me one day. i didn't know they were there. they snuck in with a camera and i had a darth vader mask on. part of it had to do with the fact, the nature of the job. i was doing something that hadn't been done very often as vice president. i wasn't really in charge of anything, it's not like running the defense department or running the white house. but there were things

. >> let's go to john heilemann. i want everybody to have the chance to speak with the ambassador. ither full membership or achieve observer status membership, i think the fear of the administration is it's going to create a spiral of violence in the region. and if you ascribe -- if you're pessimistic about the way the israeli government behaves in general, you would be pessimistic in this case, and i think you might be. don't you think what's going to end up happening here is not only that you will achieve a symbolic and important and in some ways an important more than symbolic victory, but that the situation on the ground will rapidly deteriorate and you'll find yourself just further away from your ultimate goal, which i think is what richard was talking about in terms of chess and checkers, that this will be a self-defeating move if you win in the short-term, you'll lose in the long-term. >> i don't think you should be concerned about us even supporting, you know, changing our resistance from non-violent peaceful to violent. we have tried this path before. we are doing no servic