. >> and john kilduff joining us now with outlook for energy and oil prices. we heard in jackie's piece you were looking at $33 a barrel. last time we saw that was the financial crisis. what's going to drive it to $33 or close to it? >> that's precisely where i get the number from. oil prices rally from that number to $100 or plus the past few years. the basic look at the chart falling down that should be the low point for it and it's just all this intense selling going on not just in crude oil but the commodity sector generally, everything from live cattle to copper to coal and iron but that should be the landing point for crude. that's what gets some of the technical buyers back in the market to make the bottom finally stick here. >> you mentioned $33 was where it settled during the financial crisis. at that time the oil price was a consequence of something else of the financial crisis. some people are saying and jackie just did in the piece that this time if we go to $33 or break below that it could precipitate a financial crisis. do you agree with that and

but john kilduff points out four downside reasons we will see crude oil prices go lower.ll-supplied, the best in u.s. history. also reevenfineryies using less crude. the greek exit potential leaves hope there that demand is not going to get better from here. and iraq's output, surgingeing over 4 million a day. downside factors. >> more on oil's economic impact and what to expect of the fed. ethan harris with us after the break. >>> satya nadellas central bank banks the question looms will the fed raise rates in 2015? let's bring in ethan harris. good to have you back. good morning. thank you. >> do we get it this year or not? >> yeah we have them going if september, but anytime in the second half is a reasonable guess. i think it's going to be later than what the consensus is expecting right now. >> why the push among some morgan stanley the latest to think it's not going to happen at all, until q1 of '16. >> you have a very solid recovery in the labor market. so the unemployment rate alone would be enough to trigger the fed by the summer. meanwhile, though ep flation dro