we will be talking with moody's chief economist john lonski.s not just the mullen isles, americans just don't trust each other anymore. we explored our countries trust deficit. robbie leatherwood will speak with us next. reporter: vice president aydin in asia, trying to keep the chinese are starting a military conflict. former army four-star general jack keane on what the administration should do next as a business owner, i'm constantly putting out fires. so i deserve a small business credit card with amazing rewards. with the spark cascard from capital one, i get 2% cash back on ery purchase, every day. i break my back around here. finally soone's recognizing me with unlimited rewards! meetings start at 11, cindy. [ male announcer get the spark business card from capital one. choose 2% cash back or double miles on every purchase, every d. what's in your wallet? i need your timesheets, larry! ♪ [ male announcer ] the parking lot helps by letting us know who's coming. the carts keep everyone on the right track. the powerools iroduce themselves.

john lonski says it's overvalued? end of the day it is a bubble and you have bubbles all over the place and they have been perpetuated by the federal reserve and so the gold bubble, you see that popping today. in other words, it's a very bad for the gold bubble. and so in fact i think that that was a real message that if they taper, they will have a lot of bond funds continuing to have issues because that's the most recent and then you bundle of the switches stocks. >> listening to these smart guys talking about the evaluation and popping bubbles, nonetheless, we are going to bring them back because they are two of the smartest guys on the street. we will have them later in the broadcast. right now, we have breaking news from capitol hill. the senate has voted to approve the two-year bipartisan budget that cleared the house last week. the final vote despite all of the rhetoric will be 64 to 36, nine republican senators voting in favor of the deal. the bill now goes to the white house for the president's signature, and

we will be talking with moody's chief conomist john lonski.s not just the mullen isles, americans just don't trust each other anymore. we explored our countries trust deficit. robbie leatherwood will speak with us next. reporter: vice president aydin in asia, trying to keep the chinese are starting a military conflict. former army four-star general jack keane on what the administration should do lou: let's take a look at the global hotspots that are not cooling. in afghanistan, president hamid karzai shutdown secretary john kerry's suggestion that the united states could rcumvent through famine have afghans defense ministers on a security agreement that would allow u.s. troops to stay in the country past next year. the spokesman of hamid karzai says he would not promote any of his ministers to sign in his place my certain demands are met, including a demand to change miliary operation. any major blow to hezbollah. one of its top military leaders gunned down outside of hishome in a busy beirut suburb. has bloke was quick to blame israel for the

joining us right now, john lonski. those numbers yesterday shocked all of us.he third quarter gdp, big, big gain. we have seen better than expected adp numbers. what does that make you think we're going to see today? >> we have jobless claims. a downward bias because of the thanksgiving holiday. i think it will be around 200,000 new jobs, lower unemployment rate and that would, of course, increase the risk of an announced tapering at the december meeting. but most likely, that announcement will not come until the first quarter of next year. let's not forget that inflation is very well contained. pce price index inflation is about 1%. the dollar is doing pretty well. the fed has plenty of leeway. it has the luxury of studying the data more closely before launching a tapering. >> that's an excellent point. the inflation is very well contained. that's exactly what bullard said when he was here on set. he's a guy who is really hawkish when it comes to any inflationary signs. >> inflation is so well contained that i think we're running into pricing problems during t

speaking of great americans, john lonsky is here.he market -- was it relief or was it, wow, the fed is forecasting a stronger economy, it's good? >> i think it's relief we're finally getting out. i think the market finally has a chance to discover where the ten-year treasury yield belongs. this is going to be beneficial to investors, businesses, they'll have a better handle of what the long-term real cost of capital is. where were you for the fourth quarter? >> closer to consensus is about 1.5%, maybe 1.6%. what i want to point out, i was pleased by the fact we have the faster rate of growth for spending. 1.4% to 2%. we think in the fourth quarter real consumer spending goes up to 2.8%. it's going to grow more rapidly because in part because of the price discounting brought on by the huge increase in inventories. >> i see. you're not going up from 1.6% this next quarter based on 4.1? >> it's that inventory adjustment. if we take out inventories, we're close to 2.5%. >> will we get to 2 1/2 in 2014? >> definitely. i think so. i think