lou: john lonski.next, more than a million illegal immigrants expected to be apprehended at our southern border this year, that means as many as four million illegal immigrants could be in this country. we'll find out. we'll have much more on what to do about this crisis when we come right back. ♪ lou: apprehensions at our southern b, more caravans being organized in central america. mark morgan, former u.s. border patrol chief under president obama, talked about the crisis. >> this year over one million, like you suggested, but because of our broken laws and because 65-70% are families, we allow them in the united states. 700,000 this year we're going to let into the united states, and we know that 85% of them are filing false claims. how is that not a crisis? lou: president trump today slammed the politics behind the mueller witch hunt. >> this is dirty politics, though. this is actually the treason. it's a very bad thing that people have done. and i just hope that law enforcement takes it up. lou: a

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john lonski, you first on the issue. about forever and ever, alleged bias of social media platforms. that one thing senator cruz brought up whether they're neutral platforms. is twitter required to be neutral? it's a private company, but now they're bringing up antitrust concerns. what is your view? >> would you like it to be neutral. political censorship is a mind field. who knows where this might lied. there is going to be a lot of opposition to whatever action twitter takes that tries to limit access to its type of social media. nevertheless, let's face it, there are extremist groups that become even more inflamed, eventually perhaps pose a danger to society. connell: right. >> through social media. connell: so they're trying to find that balance, jonathan hoenig. nobody wants things to be more open than you, i get that. >> yeah. connell: how do we do it here? one of the senators i think senator hawley, a little while ago had a suggestion, hey, whatever your protocols are, make those public. let everybody know what yo

charles: with reaction moody's managing director john lonski. ffer center senior fellow, brian dimovic and john luna. he is new york city salesman every time they hype it up a little bit, when he said we're doing unbelievably well i think that is appropriate how many jobs are being created month over month and how wages are going up at this part of the cycle it should be done by now. >> you're right. if we make it through the month of june it will be a record long economic recovery. never before in u.s. history have we had a economic recovery that lasted 10 years. we're still creating jobs at a healthy pace. that is tremendous. 3.8% unemployment and yet inflation risks remain very well-contained. charles: brian, that is the thing a lot of people cannot understand. even the federal reserve. they can't figure out why they haven't been able to inflate certain parts of the economy and why do you think we're still chugging along like this? >> we had a great corporate tax cut in '77. you take the rate from 35 to 21, of course it will be tons of new hir

i guess they could look at higher gas taxes, john lonski, to pay for it.told chuck schumer doesn't want that exclusively because it would be onerous to the poor and those who find that sort of thing regressive and all of that. be that as it may, i'm wondering whether something like that would be so costly, whatever merits and benefits it has longer term, fix the roads and bridges, bring the grid up to speed, make for faster 5g, all that other stuff, it could lead to a slowdown. in other words, that the very taxes meant to pay for it slow things down. >> well, they will. it goes like this. everybody wants infrastructure spending but nobody wants to pay for it and nobody wants it in their backyard. so i think this is going to be a difficult bill to pass, especially from budget hard liners and even if it is passed, by the time we get through all the environmental regulations and restrictions whand whatnot,e may not feel the impact until several years down the road. meanwhile, we may have increased gasoline taxes as you hinted to the detriment of economic acti

john lonski, moody's capital markets, he is their chief of. is it serious offer, you could actually close down the any length of time the southern border of the united states? are these warnings of economic calamity, serious warnings? what do you think of it all? >> i think the president is trying to use the threat gaining leverage with businesses to put pressure on those in washington to see to it that immigration laws are indeed enforced. that indeed we recognize that we have a border between the united states and mexico that this is one way of doing it. this is a is a chaotic situation that can't be indefinitely and he has no choice but to shut it down. connell: consequences of having no ard bother policy doesn't working, if he shuts it down, one group, center for automotive research, basically in a week the automotive industry would be toast, a real disaster. is that going too far? >> that may be somewhat of an exaggeration. i was looking at prices of automobile company shares including motor vehicle parts manufacturers. for the most part

i asked john lonski moody's economist, he said we would have been three percent plus growth if wasn't our trade policy. his point, the president because he think it is important willing to take a little bit of an economic hit. i wonder if that is still the policy? you say he needs a great economy to runs on but sometimes he is willing to go had a different way. >> it is a shame when any president is economically powerful. he hits on something, security is more important than trade or growth. trade is the single advancer of national security mankind ever conceived. that is the case. if the whole world is selling to you, if you're their best market they have a rooting interest in your well being not going to war with you. connell: right. >> china was a much bigger enemy to us when it was desperately poor country because they had nothing to lose. now they have a lot to lose and that's good. thank goodness americans and chinese are trading with each other so much. thank goodness they're so economically reliant. connell: you always have a unique point of view which we always appreciate. yo

joining us now, moody's economist john lonski. do you agree? >> yes, i do. if goldman sachs is correct and we have a 3.3% unemployment rate close to election day, november 2020, trump will be re-elected. unless he does something to prevent his re-election. we don't know about that. ashley: well, and that's the question. any chance the economy can falter? i guess -- >> here's the problem. ashley: they talk about a recession next year which could come at a bad time for the 2020 election. >> well, here's a scary statistic. over the past 50 years, the unemployment rate has been at 4% or lower only 6% of the time, 6% of all those months. so the odds are since we now have a 3.8% unemployment rate that it's going to be higher than 3.8% a year from now and so on. but i still think the economy still has the wherewithal to keep growing, profits keep growing, companies keep hiring people, the unemployment rate does not rise, and if that's the case, we have a 3.3%, 3.4% unemployment rate, that favors trump's re-election. ashley: the critics say well, the stimulus from t

come on in, john lonski. he is an economist. >> not that long ago i was looking for growth of one half of one percent. now we are at 3.2%. what happened? stuart: i think those are huge numbers. is there anything wrong with them? >> okay. the naysayers will tell you that while gdp grew by more than 3%, real consumer spending barely grew by just over 1%. one of the reasons why this number was so strong was because of an unexpected increase by inventories which isn't necessarily a good thing except for the fact that this buildup of inventories points towards the continuation of low price inflation and the other factor at work was a narrowing of the trade deficit. exports up 3.7%, imports down 3.7%. stuart: there's a lot of good news in this report. now, just for a second, take me into the next three months. >> consumer spending is going to grow more rapidly. it's not going to keep growing at this 1%, it's going to head up to 2% to 3%. it's going to pick up considerably. we saw evidence of that in march retail sa