joining me right now is through the cycle president john lonski and chief workforce analyst joanie biley. great to see you both. thank you very much for being here. john, i want to kick it off with you. does this unemployment report, is it as bad as the headline number looks? >> i don't think so. you know, we did get this steep decline by the unemployment rate, plus if we look at the household survey, we're looking at a gain of more than 1 million jobs while statement at the same time, the number of people unemployed dropped by half a million. this was not the sign of things to come as far as the smaller than expected increase by payrolls. maria: so you think things are getting better then? >> i still think they are improving. we have far more job openings, than we have people unemployed. i can't help but conclude for the time being that we will have further gains in payrolls that are going to well exceed the 210,000 jobs created in november. maria: yeah, we should point out that both september and october got revised upward, so maybe ultimately november gets revised upward as well. joan

joining me now, president of through the cycle, john lonski.our thoughts on that tweet to get us started? >> well, jackie, you know there are lies, damn lies and statistics and in this case as you mentioned what biden overlooked is principle reason why we're looking at such rapid real gdp growth is because of so much fiscal and monetary stimulus. in fact we went overboard with stimulus so that we are now in a situation where rate of growth of prices, cpi, price inflation, is well outrunning the rate of growth of wages that helps to explain why consumer sentiment is sinking despite a big drop in the unemployment rate and why president biden's approval rating is so low. jackie: i mean, look, there is always two ways to look at it. yes, things are getting better but we're living through a once in a lifetime pandemic. i'm not necessarily sure who we should credit that to. if you asked him a year ago he would have blamed it all on president trump. now he wants some credit for what is happening here but in 2021 one of our big issues is of course the

i want to bring the cycle president john lonski. p estimates for next year, first, sick and third quarter, based in part of manchin being a no but should they also take down the inflation estimates as well? >> i would think so. if you get significantly slower economic growth that will put downward pressure on inflation. i might add according to the downward revision of goldman sachs' forecast, fourth quarter 2022 real gdp will grow by something less than 3%, which is much slower than the fomc forecast, the federal reserve forecast of 4% growth which underlies the fomc forecast of three rate hikes for 2022. goldman sachs ought to go a step further and reduce their forecast for the federal funds rate next year. charles: i love both of those points. put it out all there. they put out just enough for the right public consumption. some of your work you say rapid inflation matters a whole lot more than a solid jobs market. explain in layman's terms what that means particularly with respect to fed policy? >> okay, i was dumfounded by the fo

maria: a mixed bag of a report john lonski maybe not as bad as the headline appears, let me point outwe did get some solid gains as far as manufacturing employment construction employment are concerned those tend to be much higher paying industries. compared to leisure and hospitality, go ahead, follow jon hilsenrath's advice take a job at a bar or a restaurant but you are going to find in a your average hourly wage i think at the bottom of the wage ladder when you go across different industries. that being said, focusing on wage growth 4.8%, that should be above 5% fairly soon we may be at the beginning of a wage price spiral that is is going to be hard to break when wages grow more rapidly in response seems to be a very tight labor market, not only are costs higher for businesses we also find consumers are better able to afford higher prices and that tends to extend the stay that one time was considered to be transitory inflation. . >> well jay powell this week said time to retire the word "transitory" stephanie pomboy. stephanie: actually as you can see cover of business week, infl

contributed to labor shortage you lost workers older generation decided to frankly leave have had enough john lonskiup border patrol agents arresting five turkish in articles entering the country illegally,. failed president candidate hillary clinton appears panicked midterms pointing finger at her own party her warning, that is next hours away from ringing in 2022. america's -- going into new year stay with us you are watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. . . ♪♪ care. it has the power to change the way we see things. ♪♪ it inspires us to go further. ♪♪ it has our back. and goes out of its way to help. ♪♪ when you start with care, you get a different kind of bank. truist. born to care. cheryl: some top stories we are watching for think morning, -- u.s. shattering covid cases reported yesterday omicron cdc reviving people should not board cruise ships. americans are forced to wait long testing lines ahead of the weekend president joe biden is vacationing in delaware, president biden russian president vladimir putin did hold a phone call yesterday the second this month talking about ukr

erin gibbs, john lonski, two market gurus. good to see them in the flesh. good to see you. erin, let me get your authorities on the extreme swings in the market what do you make of it? >> with this new resurgent variant looks a lot like what we had last fall this is basically three months later. last fall we started september 1st we had three month of side way patterns. largely started with concerns around the delta variant back then. this looks somewhat similar. we're selling into equities, buying into bonds. yields going down, bond prices going up. neil: mirror opposite each day. >> yes. every day it is similar. off equities into bods. it is that risk-off type of fear trade. neil: i would note interest rates are back up a little bit today, but still way below the 1.65 on the 10-year note a couple weeks ago but if they're worried about inflation john, they're not showing it at least there. what are we to make of that? >> they are really not. i'm surprised. we're looking at a 10-year yield under 1 1/2% again? neil: yeah. >> peaked in late march at 1.75%. this is strange. ge

stuart: ouch, john lonsky, thanks indeed for covering most of the markets and the economy.to start with novavax, i'm not sure which direction it's going in. lauren: up. stuart: what's the story? lauren: the world health organization issuing an emergency use authorization to their vaccine for covid-19, the ninth one given the green light. stuart: amc and cinemark, well they aren't that much. lauren: a 5%. here's the news, spiderman, no way home, it was its best opening ever, at amc, the highest december opening ever, 1.1 million people watching it in theaters when we knew about the risk of omicron and i think that's the big deal. stuart: that goes back to tammy 's point. there's the normals are shrugg ing off omicron. lauren: what do you want me to do? i'm going to go, mask or no mask, whatever sit in a theatre. stuart: americans will not be repressed and that's a fact. fedex last time we checked they were up 7% now up 6. lauren: i wanted to give you another reason here, so they received 111,000 applications for jobs last week, in one week. that's a huge amount of people. st