jackie: i think a great point. >> just lost the show -- that is a great point john lonski follow up onat becomes problematic, corporate earnings start to drop if we hear from companies that they are having trouble, as a result of all these different dynamics that are playing out, thin, is when you start to see the slowdown that we talked about in earnest. >> especially true, when you have labor costs rising quickly, while productivity is declining, that cuts into profit margins some point, payrolls all but stalled, in not too distant future regarding what stephanie was talking about this teendz tribe a lagging indicator right now we have a housing recession home heales way down from peak down more than 20% year-over-year, yet what did we have? in the month of august? we had increase by construction employment believe me that increase by construction employment is not a sign of things to come, i hate to say this i think the housing recession is a sign of things to come, and as the economy stalls maybe goes into reverse, we are going to quickly see the am presidential gained by payrolls

maria: joining the conversation all morning long this morning john lonski leo kelly john your reaction to where we stand what catalysts do you see on horizon to fix the economy inflationary story. john: that fellow at restaurant interviewed by ashley on spot, very correct fed should not be dment upon lowering the rate of inflation we have to look at federal government we got to look at regulation taxation it wasn't paul volcker by himself brought inflation under control in early 1980s, ronald reagan and and then and his advisers and different direction they pushed the economy in, had much to do with that secular decline began under reagan administration if afrm american wants to get rid one of rapidly inflation have to get rid of politicians those people in washington followed policyholders that breed inflation fuel inflation, of course, energy policy, is a great example, that is one of the reasons why, you are heating bills are going is to be so much higher come winter. maria: no acknowledge of any leo from white house, obviously because they keep coming out with spending packages if

cheryl: john lonski. help but notice this economy slowing down world economy is slowing down, eventually this is going to slow price inflations might lead to price discounting. perhaps we should have nothing more than three-quarters of a percentage point rate hike next week, and, you know, by year's end fed funds futures is telling me the federal funds rate finishes the year about 4.4% i think going to be more than enough to drive u.s. economy into a painful recession come 2023. any thoughts on that? >> yeah i can switch my cap around make a couple arguments first argument fed foels personal consumption expensive next running cooler than cpi they can use that as argument if they don't want to raise rates after next week, furthermore, in september, october last year, we had big spikes inflation we are going to cut to say off from trillion month numbers do i expect september october inflation to be lot better than we recently saw. but, you know, they don't like to fight market rates. o other conundrum fed h

joining the conversation all morning long is dagen mcdowell, charles hurt and john lonsky, that's oneto the economy but there will be more, dagen. dagen: there will be. when you see the storms what happens say in the state of florida is that you have insured losses and the insured loss, the most destructive hurricane was katrina in 2005, the ensured losses were $90 billion and that was more than double the second most expensive hurricane and then you have all of the additional destruction say infrastructure like property damage that isn't ensured and so that number becomes bigger and then you have the economic impact but after a storm like this because of the rebuilding that occurs you very often if you look at charts which we do, john, you get a pop in economic growth as you begin to see more rebuilding and i will point out one other thing from the insurance information institute that before this storm, the storm surge risk by state based on the number of single-family homes at risk, florida was top of the list, number 1 and potentially there were 2.36 million single family homes at

joining the conversation all morning long, tiana lowe and john lonski. and that video, tiana, is so hard to watch of the elderly couple. >> absolutely. cheryl: that home i'm vacation. it's really dis-- invasion. it's really disturbing. >> this is virginia, this is not the south bronx. we see how there's a trickle down crime effect from these majmajor cities. i want to go back to the carp kn base clip. she had a firearm stolen from her home. which means was she being a responsible gun owner? where was she maintaining her gun? was it not in a finger print lock safe? how were they able to get that. let's not forget that los angeles has the choice to either elect karen base as mayor, represent one of the most violent neighborhoods in los angeles, data from the la times or rick caruso who is a millionaire, who is a corporateist, who has not been responsible, who isn't a communist who has gone to celebrate the castros in cuba but the crime stuff more than anything doesn't have a political affiliation. we see the life and death issue. that could be anyone's gra

stuart: john lonski, quite a forecast, see you later, john. >> thank you.y feedback. you can e-mail your questions, comments, critiques, whatever, to "varney"viewers@fox.com. president biden heading to motor city pushing the shift to electric vehicles at the detroit auto show. are consumers on board with that a live report from detroit, next ♪ ♪ go. go lights. go big city lights. go spotlights. go stadium lights. emerson software helps clean energy become reliable electricity. go “good night.” go boldly. emerson. vizsla silver's panuco project represents one of the highest-grade silver discoveries tin wheldorwi. athar lge resource base and over one hundred and twenty thousand metres of drilling planned for twenty twenty-two, vizsla is on a clear path to silver production. vizsla silver. stuart: the detroit auto show is underway, it will spotlight the growing number of electric vehicles. grady trimble joins us. with more ev's coming on the market, grady, is there any chance that prices will come down? reporter: not in the near-term, stuart. in fact the avera

joining the conversation all morning long -- jackie: joining the conversation all morning long, john lonski and todd piro. not only is she passing the buck to president trump, but when it comes to the spending the democrats have done, it was the paycheck protection program that was the problem. they're doing this. >> of all the gas lighting done by this administration, this is by far the most egregious. let's go back to what she said, schools went from 46% open to nearly all open. you know where the all open came from? it came from the blue districts that were closed because they're in the pocket of the teachers unions. trump had nothing to do with that. trump wanted to open it. republicans wanted to open so you can't basically say we caused this problem, like the arsonist who puts out the fire. that doesn't work. the american people see right through that. jackie: john. >> remote learning was a total disaster. especially for primary school children who have a hard time paying attention to a computer screen over an extended period of time. i'll add, a lot of these young kids, had they haven

john lonski, he knows of what he speaks. meantime here you have added complication of a potential rail strike affecting the delivery of goods, toys, you name it, all over the country right now. they used to think that this was not even remotely possible. well they have elevated it to possible and now probable. the impact for you after this. ♪ another busy day? of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones ♪. neil: you kno

joining the conversation all morning long is john lonski and leo kelly. john, your reaction to what we'll hear from the gop today. >> i like what we'll hear. i like the list of goals that they have once they retake the house and perhaps the senate. it's very important that the government get out of the way and allow the private sector to do what it does best and that is promote economic growth, employment opportunities and the like. we're suffering from government intervention on a scale that hasn't been seen in some time and that helps to explain why inflation remains stubbornly high. maria: yeah. leo, is this important to markets? tell me about your standpoint as an investor. do you think the midterms represent a catalyst for the stock market? >> well, we've been saying now for at least two years that one of the biggest risks in the market is policy error, policy error by the fed and fiscal policy error. the fed is finally catching up and what i find amazing is people think this is aggressive behavior. this is just catching up to neutral behavior. trying

joining me right now is through the cycle president, john lonski and michael lee strategy found foundermichael lee. great to see you this morning. thank you for being here. john, kicking things off with you. right now, the majority are expecting a 75 basis point hike wednesday when the fed completes the two day meeting that deposition exhibit numbers tomtom-- that begins tomorrow. but futures are betting 20% that we see a full point. the markets are selling off again this morning. your thoughts on what to expect from the fed meeting beginning tomorrow. >> well, i would go with that 80% looking for a 75 basis point hike by fed funds from the current 2.38%, the 3.13% and that is a level for fed funds that was last seen in 2007. and it may be at a level that is just too high for the u.s. economy to shoulder without suffering significant damage. maria: well, i mean, it's a good point because they've got so many leaders, ceos, ray dalio, you've got noriel rabini, others saying we're going to see a severe recession in 2023 as a result of the aggressive rate hikes. will the fed blink do you th

almost permanently here, john lonski is with us. going to do after today's rate increase. how long is this going to go on for? >> okay, november 2, that's the next meeting. fed funds goes up to 3.88% call it 3.9%. then, the following meeting is the middle of december. that's where i think fed funds peaks, it peaks at about 4.13%. when i say this , i want to emphasize this point. the neutral rate of fed funds where supposedly it doesn't hurt or help economic activity is either 2.42 or 2.5% so today we're going above that neutral rate and by december, we're going to be well-above neutrality as far as the impact of fed funds on economic activities concerned. once we get up above 4% we're going to see the u.s. economy feel more pain. stuart: when you say feel more pain, pushed into recession? >> exactly. i think that that is unavoidable stuart: talk to me about inflation. a lot of analysts are saying look you'll have a 6% inflation at the consumer level for the rest of this year. do you agree with that, because you've been on this progra

joining the conversation this morning, dagen mcdowell, john lonski and charles hurt. great to see everybody. taking hee -- dagen, he doesn't understand how supply and demand works, obviously. what is he talking about. dagen: was is he talking about. at the same event he asked jackie, where's jackie, asking about congresswoman jackie who died in a an accident last month. he didn't know that the congresswoman had passed away. that being said, they go back to the same playbook, blame big oil, blame big pharma, blame big meat, they were doing this as inflation was taking off because of their wreckless policies and it's just an anti-business, i will blighthly lie attitude. he's talking about gasoline stations. gas stations are large ily owned by independent operator as mom and pop shops. big oil does not -- they own a sliver of gasoline stations in this country. that being said, when you have a supply crunch, you will see pump prices go up to prevent shortages in an event like a hurricane. it's just the way it works to make sure that that the stations actually have fuel an

leo kelly and john lonski, we're looking at a market down near the lows here, down 400 points, thanks very much for weighing in on all of this , this morning. dow industrials down 400 and the nasdaq down 153. "varney" & company begins right now stu take it a away. stuart: good morning, maria, good morning, everyone. this is a big day for the republican party. they released their commitment to america, it's the plan to re take the house and the senate. republicans say they will run on kitchen table issues inflation education crime the border and freedom. we'll tell you exactly what it says. and this is a very big day for the markets. central banks around the world are raising rates following jay powell's lead and investors are selling big time. the dow industrial average is only a half percentage point above its june lows and looking at a 400 point decline at the opening bell this morning. it's going to be below, it is below 30,000. the s&p 500 way down on the downside, 52 points lower but look at the nasdaq. that could drop below 11,000. it could, it's down about 150 at the opening be