worsening as you were talking cheryl dow industrials down 300 points right now, the nasdaq down 215, john lonskiaction to this reaction to the better-than-expected jobs numbers. >> according to latest report on payroll drop in unemployment rate my goodness this is telling us if treasury bond market had it right with that percentage point jump by the 10-year treasury yield and federal reserve had it wrong with that percentage point drop, the federal funds rate tells us the economy is doing quite well. and as a result, inflationary pressures are on the rise. >> um-hmm wondering how incoming agenda is going to offset what people are expecting look at yield on 10 your up 8 basis points right now 4.76% two-year up 10 basis points 4.36% break this down steve. >> good report with i am very he relieved i expected a lower number it shows there is still resilience in this economy but the thing would keep me up at night creeping inflation, that john and stephanie were talking about one thing could dismantle trump agenda if prices start rising again there is no question about it, the number one issue, that

i want to bring john lonski into this. ron johnson has -- senator ron johnson has an op-ed in the journal, fiscal sanity is not too much to hope for this year. he makes an interesting point about obviously the federal spending but he says one of the reasonable approaches to fix things is just to set a budget cap. go back to the models we saw in government from fiscal 1998 and bring fiscal responsibility back to washington. >> that -- cheryl: bond market would like like that. >> the bond market would love it. you'd have a 10 year yield going under 3%. unfortunately, what he's saying is that we're going to get rid of the budget deficit where we have a government spending of nearly $2 trillion more than what it takes in in terms of taxes. if you were to get rid of the excess of nearly $2 trillion of spending the economy would suffer and the equity market would suffer. you know, as an economist, i'm one of those guys that's guilty of having badly underestimated growth for 2024. when i look back at the reason for that under-est

john lonski?at out there. >> the dot.com bubble didn't burst until march of 2000, so hold on to your seats. cheryl: this is the it for me, ashley webster's

i think this is the sector that may benefit the most of less regulation. >> john lonski, yellow layerxtreme fire damage in los angeles. now analysts are trying to understand the impact. td cowan the extreme fire damages raising policy questions for financials despite insurance being state regulated they expect headline risk on possible ration on federal insurance and reinsurance programs. >> it looks that insurance rates are higher because of the horrible tragedy in los angeles. one of the big questions would be whether or not insurance companies are going to continue to offer property insurance to the regions that have a high risk of costly natural disasters this will not be a problem in california is already a problem in florida as well as texas and this will adversely affect the real estate market in the regions go ahead and get a mortgage when you cannot get property insurance on the building that backstop mortgage is. maria: i know you don't want a bipartisan local companies and food companies is any best buy in the stock market from your standpoint. a week ago microsoft at $80 b

joining me now ubs private wealth management financial advisor, sarah ponzak, also with me is john lonskifutures are pointing to a strong opening on the first trading day for the year, markets mixed for the month of december. but we did finish the fourth quarter higher and obviously the year-to-date story pretty darn amazing for 2024. the s&p 500 posted a 23% gain, its best two year performance since 1998. big tech, massive gains there, as you can see with the nasdaq. look at thstocks. amazon, nvidia, google, meta, microsoft. you say thathe mag magnificent seven has an important role to play the the growth story for 2025. >> good morning, and happy new year to you, cheryl. they absolutely do. if you look at the magnificent seven stocks in 2024, they were paramount to the s&p 500's return. you mentioned the s&p 500 up 23% last year and these companies alone that you're showing on the screen, they accounted for more than half of that return and if you look at the average return across the seven stocks, they were up more than 60%. we naturally have to ask ourselves why and, two, can it conti

also with is john lonski.icating a mixed opening, looking at a reopening today after closing for president jimmy carter's funeral yesterday and markets are down across the board. the nasdaq is down 103, dow industrials down 89 as gold prices trade higher. gold as you have been predicting continues to rise. now at 2705. and 10 year treasury yields are also on the rise. this is an issue. i think this could be an issue for earnings. you're talking about the 10 year at 4.69% right now, went above 4.7% yesterday. five federal reserve officials are cautioning the central bank rate cut path this year over lingering inflation fears is uncertain. the fed expected to pause the rate cutting string at the first policy meeting beginning januar. dennis, your thoughts on rates and gold in '25. >> i think first of all the yield curve has gone from an inversion to a positive slope and it's going to continue to do so as rates in the back end are worried about rising inflationary pressures over time. so i think the fed will cont

we brought in john lonski to get to the bottom of this.there was no such thing as bond vigilantes and something is spooking the market and it's reflect in the bond yields. >> may might be like ghost riders in the sky and something is taking place and pushing treasury bond yields higher and why are yields rising? to help slow the economy to prevent the economy from growing so rapidly that there's resurging inflation and moreover, they're worried about the budget deficit and talking about possibility of buying greenland for perhaps just under $2 trillion, that would involve adding $2 trillion to u.s. government debt. i don't think the market is ready for something like that. charles: even with that and japan trying to buy or the uk, this is a global problem though. >> look at japan and all the foreign academies and they're rate of economic growth is less than 2% n. some cases like germany, they're barely growing at all. you have to ask yourself what in the world is happening. one factor is the rising u.s. treasury bond yield and pulling it h

john lonski? -- throw that out there. >> the dot.com bubble didn't burst until march of 2000, so hold on to your seats. cheryl: this is the it for me, ashley webster's in for stuart. ashley: good morning, cheryl. thank you very much. good morning, everybody. i am ashley webster in for stu varney if today. it's day two of the man hundt for more special suspect in the isis-linked terror attack in new orleans. police say a former army veteran used a truck to plow through new year's revelers before being killed if a shootout with police. right now 15 people are confirmed dead and at least 30 more injured. the chief of police says they are not looking for accomplices in the attack but, quote, persons of interest. we're continuing to follow that. we're also following that breaking news in las vegas as one person is dead after a tesla cyber truck stuffed with explosives blows up outside the trump international hotel. officials are now looking into whether the two incidents are connected as we are learnin