4.6% he's playing offense with historically defensive areas of the market so joining me now is john mowryief investment officer at mfg investments u. thank you very much for being here. things are very much building and coalescing around this what does that do for the markets overall in equities specifically >> well, i think the key message when i look at the most recent data is disinflation is continuing this has been going on now for several quarters in a row. so the trend is disinflation i think that the two-year bond yield is a very important barometer for where the fed is going with cuts. if you go back to 1985 and you look at the spread between the two-year bond yield, which is set by the market, and the fed funds rate, which is set by the spread, that spread is in the 95 percentile so the two-year bond yield is lower by roughly 100 basis points than the fed funds. that's important because they need the fed to cut. every time you have periods where the two-year bond yield sits below that fed funds rate, that is the building pressure for the fed to cut so when you look at that data h