the single best chart, it is the ryding spoke, john about this. ion-adjusted two-year yields. we are just not back to where we are. richard clarida, i would suggest ryding's putting green. we are on the golf course and the putting green is getting farther away. wedo not know which hole are on. the confusion is extraordinary. richard: i think for the foreseeable future the fed and other central banks are in a new neutral world. those that want to hike realize they need to hike slowly into a low destination. you had john williams this week saying as best as he can estimate, this is a voting member of the fomc, the neutral with 2%ate consistent employment is zero or negative. is: your putting green completely gone. the golf course metaphor is gone. john: i don't even think we know what sport we are playing. tom: good point. how do you respond to what professor claire to just said? take the have to numbers consistently. if you look at the work before, you have to estimate the neutral rate along with the output gap or nairu for employment. that is an is