jonathan: john ryding, fantastic to catch up with you. this extends to irving fisher's work.ember his work would always talk about nominal wage growth is more important than real wages. for people that is really a. what your wage goes up in nominal terms -- that is a real experience. what your wage goes up in nominal terms is much better -- tom: this was the collapse of the wage in the united kingdom in tough times. that is not envisioned for the united states in 2020, but it is a legacy of fear drives policy. jonathan: it is not, but something else is important. the monopoly that certain ideas have and academia and in central banking. one of them is higher inflation is good and disinflation is bad. if there is any criticism of the central banks, it is that we do not have alternative opinions. there's a lot of groupthink and i thought it was refreshing to have charlie plosser on the program. you remember the new york fed 10 years ago when we had richard fisher and charlie plosser giving me the alternative view constantly. i think that is healthy and absent at the moment. tom:

tom: what is so important here, and you heard this from john ryding of green capital. this in focus that he used was residual. major,t project, steven at bloomberg, was to his claim to residual to people and frame it out in the terminal, etc. what is the nominal yield going to do? there is the belief that the central bank can control the nominal yield. can they? steven: i'm so pleased you've said that, tom, because to me it is controversial some people to understand this. if the policy is zero and the 10 year yield is 50, that is like saying for the 10 year rerate, you have -- for the 10 year rate come you have five years at 100. and the five years at that is the average. if the inflation expectation moves up to two when the fed wants in or beyond, the real yield is going to become 50 minus two, -150 residual. bonds,ity, people trade nominal yield bonds, and swaps and futures. the important -- the importance of trading the inflation link is time. there is a mess of explanation, you're completely right. it is just an outcome. francine: how much lower can they go? get no

fed's clarida maintains that he is sticking with >> i like how john ryding put that, saying it appears they're picking up because of job growth i'm curious, where are we on estimates for gdp growth and q3 and q4 after being down 30 what's the latest thinking there? >> minus 31.9 2q 7% for the fourth. put it all together and the expectation is for 2020 being down to 5% >> all right, which given everything that's happened isn't so bad, but still one of the worst downturns we've ever seen. we'll see if it stays there after all the downturns we've seen >>> job growth may be slowing. we're also nowhere near a deal on stimulus yet, but the nasdaq setting another new high today the s&p and just 2% away from its. john belsky and michael chicami. it's good to see you both. brian, to me, at least the manufacturing, the service number is pointing more in the direction the markets are pointing to. there is some data out there that says this economy still has momentum >> great point, kelly, and thanks for having us on. i think the ios number is important because the economy has been strong. in the

i can't say enough the value of john ryding at brean capital and what you are hearing from mr.p of pgim. i don't know what else to say. it was literally the first logic i did for matt would clear at bloomberg -- for matt winkler at bloomberg. you take the nominal yield and then look at the inflation expectation and the residual is the real yield. with that said, what would you suggest nominal yields will do? my comments here have been the front end of the curve are little but expensive, but they are going to stay down here. we make it a little bit of a w intech recovery, a little but of a setback on growth. the middle part of the curve, the 10 is going to be in this 40 to 80 range. whether people are a diligent that w, the back end of the curve guiding back inside of the yield curve, those forward rates , what's priced in terms of where treasuries will be 10, 20 give from now are way too high. they are in the mid to high 2% area. they were above, and we had a crash a few months back, but they are pushing to present with your bond yield is too high. so i am looking for a stable

that was john ryding of fremont capital.side tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action cross asset worldwide. futures breaking out higher by almost 20 points, up around 0.6%. gold nicely through 2k. we continue to move higher. in the treasury market, yields are up a couple of basis points on the session, but you see it down by zero .53% -- by 0.52% on the tenure. what a move over the last few months. us: michael kushma is with with morgan stanley, their cio of global fixed income. he's got a pedigree which means there was just enough physics for physics in become a which is what we're going to do here on a wednesday. i want to talk about inertial force and the grinding grind we see now. thisare hoping to end inner show force of lower and lower yields. how do you mend it, or does it -- how do you end it, or does it just keep going on? michael: i think it keeps going on until central banks call a has basicallyfed said they are unwilling to go below zero unless literally all other policy tools a