john silvia knows this, the chief economist at wells fargo securities. forecasts to 3.1% unemployment rate. is it feasible we could drive under 4% and get to those levels? that is the fed prepared for a quite as an like unemployment eisenhowerard unemployment rate? john: we have a sub 4% unemployment rate. tom: is jerome powell prepared? john: the fed will have a challenge, the model is an incredibly low unemployment rate relative to what we think is low unemployment. where is the big inflation we anticipate? is the phillips curve model a model of the current economy? tom: you took your northeastern academics and brought real market-based economics to the behavioral aspects of jobs. you lead on american mobility, what is your alteration about the behavior of the american labor economy in 2018? john: we lost mobility in two ways, geographically, and on the lot of people moving between states and jobs. in terms of mobility by income category, not a lot of people not moving up as they traditionally have in the past based upon a lot of treasury and irs data.

a few points across the board this morning joining us is john silvia from wells fargo securities goodning >> good morning. >> let's talk about the fed minutes and what to expect today. are they less important than normal given the changing and voting makeup of the fed >> following on your conversation with peter boockvar earlier this morning, the minutes are much less important. also when peter talks about the first quarter or next year, we're looking at capital goods orders, consumer goods orders, elements like building permits, as indicator os of how strong tt first half of 2018 is going to be >> in terms of that elusive 3% growth, how achievable is it going into this year and more broadly into the rest of the r foreseeable future the trump term >> that's the split you need to focus in on. 3% is achievable in 2018 consumer confidence is sky high. looks like equipment spending will pick up government spending is picking up sustainable over the long run, our argument has been you need to look at productivity and labor force participation rates. those are two fundamentals to give you 3

joining us this morning, wells fargo chief economist john silvia. good to see you this morning. hear from him the ceos in terms of spending plans, hiking their minimum wages, the bonus is that than 2 million people get. did people wildly underestimate the almost immediate impact of tax reform on the economy? >> often times is john lafayette tax programs are often times delays in for reagan. that it's true for george bush's plans. you could deduct right away some of the expenses and income to the workers showed up right away in their income. dagen: the question is how much more room does this market have to run because it seems unstoppable this point. >> don's point with respect to provoke points. dagen: which we were talking about during the break. >> the bank analyst says one right off the top of a lower tax rate. earnings go up, but economic growth picks up his job as mentioned earlier, your expected return, both because of the income and that will help the rural lending john was talking about. >> how about whether this tax overhaul pays for itself in weather in the long run w