john williams: we need to focus on fundamentals.here is the economy and where we see the economy going on the next couple of years? an important consideration is it takes a year to four monetary policy actions to have the full effect. we have to look at the front window and not to back in the rearview mirror and thinking about policy decision. jonathan: john williams is looking through the front window. investors are through the front will you -- window as well. they are skeptical of the fed will rate -- hike interest rates. a 30% they will move in december i forget october. let's bring in james bevan. for thehis problem federal reserve, you hear a lot talking about how they want a mobile the end of the year but the market is saying no chance. will they go gives a the market? i put a rate hike probability of december around 50%. higher than the markets bring my reasoning is at the fed has a window to raise rates. you may want to re-stimulate an economy. , itt has interest rates will have to get back for more quantitative easing and

michael: what is john williams going to tell them about his view? weave seen huge progress on the job market. unemployment is down to close to what i think of as full employment. we understand why that is happening, mainly due to the strong dollar and the decline in oil prices. i see an economy strengthening out of the mandate. still, there are risks and uncertainties there. the important thing to think about it is that it is not just rates, we are going to need an accommodating policy for another few years. even when we start the process of raising rates, and still going to be the case that monetary conditions are supportive of continued growth. michael: do you think -- would you vote, put it that way, for interest rate increase on the 28th? >> i'm not going to speculate on my views for that meeting. we start the process of deep dive briefings tomorrow. we will get a lot of materials. i'm going to listen to my colleagues and not decide on that today. the 10-year note deal was 2.2%. if you were to vote for an increase in october, it would shock the m

. >> when we come back, what do janet jackson and composer john williams have in common?> interesting. they're both being honored for their music. that's the deal. "the skinny" is next. >>> "world news now" continues after this from our abc stations. ♪ skinny, so skinny ♪ skinny, so skinny >>> "skinny" time and the nominations for the rock 'n' roll hall of fame are out and already, we're hearing some people saying that some of these acts just have to be inducted. the first time nominees include janet jackson, steve miller, chicago, and the cars. >> deep purple, nwa, nine inch nails and yes, yes, back on the ballot. there are 50 nominees. usually five are chosen. music industry insiders will vote and the result will be announced in december. >> and fans can vote too on the "rolling stone" magazine website of the induction ceremony will be held in april. >> saw that list, janet jackson definitely. chicago, unbelievable. >> how many first time nominees? that's amazing. >> oh. a little debate here. >> rhythm nation was kind of like black cat. don't even talk about janet. >> j

later, michael mckee sits down with john williams.t interview will be live from our san francisco studio at 2:00 eastern. this is bloomberg "surveillance." ♪ francine: it this is bloomberg "surveillance." let's see what you're watching for the rest of the week. us.e dimon joins a few hours later, there is a live interview with john williams. that is at 2:00 in new york. on thursday, the ecb sets interest rates. that is at 7:45 a.m. new york time. let's get more reaction to the chinese gdp numbers. us is the professor of the london school of economics and larry hathaway. we talked a little bit about growth. it's difficult to really read the transition that china is going through. are you confident that consumption will be higher? are you worried that households are being strangled? >> i think it's funny to talk about rebalancing to consumption falling frome is 70% to 60%. otherconstantly 80% in countries. this is the kind of distortionary growth model for china has. it is really hard to stimulate chinese consumption. get -- allow them

also, we will bring you highlights with john williams.his is "bloomberg surveillance," we are on your tablets, your phone and on bloomberg.com. ♪ guy: this is "bloomberg johnsonance," i am guy in london with tom keene in new york. as you look to everything this morning, what has caught your eye? -- always catches your eye. this is in his wheelhouse of economics. rich,lly, denmark is very something is rotten in denmark. vonnie, help me here. it is hamlet, i'm quoting shakespeare. guy: it wasn't hamlet who said that. vonnie: you are way ahead of me. from -- is tom: denmark is very rich but it's economy has taken a hit in recent years because its recovery from the global financial crisis has been slow and incomplete. realrk's 5.5% decline in gdp per capita since 2007 is comparable to the declines in portugal or spain. op-ed. a really smart everybody should look at it as it compares denmark to sweden. and sweden did a lot of things right. including less austerity. what are your thoughts? guy: it is interesting on a day when you have seen cana

san francisco fed president john williams sees a reason to increase rates soon and slowly.said the central bank is progressing towards its dual mandate. and maximum employment. >> we want to get this just right. that means in my view moving earlier and moving more gradually than waiting longer and moving rapidly. manus: canada's liberal party ousted steeve harper. justin trudeau has the biggest political comeback in the country's history. those are your top headlines. let's get up to speed with the markets. we have managed to eke out a gain. take us through. >> i had positive changes. take a look at this. the stoxx 600 fell out of bed at exactly 9:00 a.m. this morning. we were down .06%. who are the culprits? oil and gas companies and basic resources down more than 1%. basic resources is a metals company there, down by more than 2%. so let's talk about where some of the strength is in the market. intercontinental hotel group. look at it up. one of its best days in recent memory. coming in at up 4.8% year-on-year. that was a surprise. western europe, europe in particular, a

john williams won't have to wait to find out if he's being honored.ie composer received a lifetime award from the american film institute. >> he wrote the music for "e.t." and the "star wars" movies. ♪ >> he's 83. >> the 83-year-old williams is putting the finishing touches on the seventh "star wars" film coming out in december. >> the first composer to receive the afi award. one of the highest honors in the industry. he also has five oscars. the group nwa is getting a boost from the summer's biopic "straight outta compton" directed by f. gary gray. he's set to direct the ride or die "fast and furious 8." >> "compton" made gray a hot director which made a surprising amount of money and earned a surprising amount of critical praise. this is the first "fast and furious" film since paul walker died. >> "fast and furious 8" is set to open in april 2017 with two more installments after that. >>> there's strange looking people wandering around new york city this week. >> don't talk about me like that. geez. >> more than the usual ones in the background here

so says john williams, the president of the federal reserve in san francisco.ittle coy and how he voiced this meeting. not williams: will speculate my views on that meeting. we have a process of the deep dive briefings that starts tomorrow. i spent a whole week preparing for the meeting. listen to my colleagues. i will not decide on that today. the senior economist is still with us. everybody is hanging on to the fed. all the bankers want to know and on the markets want to know. what should they know? the data changes and in ofs the open the markets. we have been consistently taking our foot off the accelerator a little bit. there is a pause. the risks the federal reserve are not yet summer manifested. and yet, they are sometimes at the u.s. economy is softening. what we will see is a preloading if the guns in the october meeting next week. members will the start to nail down whether or not they want to push ahead. this is not whether or not we will move from the 0% rate. it is whether or not it is the right time to move off the floor to signal to markets that

>> it was amazing, you hear the john williams score, you get goose bumps from that.n my way home from a work event, i was afraid i was going to miss, it i had to stop to a bar in queens. liz: you lost me at bar in queens. >> "monday night football" crowd, very loud and boisterous. this came up on the screen and it went silent. not a peep in the crowd for a minute and a half and then when it was over everyone started bursting in applause. something is going on here, liz. liz: as a business network, a lot of you own disney, disney owns espn, espn had the game. this is the ultimate in synergies, what other relationships do you expect to see? >> disney is the master in synergies from theme parks to broadcast networks they can push and promote it all through their chain. liz: everybody, i need you to now look at the screen. stop what you're doing, we at "countdown to the closing bell" found a single frame that may reveal a very important secret. we are going to show you that frame. >> let's do it. liz: it involves my personal fave r2-d2. what is to the right? an arm. the

john williams was an assistant d.a.ession really was the -- the centerpiece of the case. that along with the fact that the alibi he gave didn't quite make sense. >> reporter: and daniel's confession was backed up by two other neighborhood boys who gave el paso police signed statements stating that they were in the car with daniel when he fired the fatal shots. word of daniel's arrest spread. jesse hernandez was relieved. >> and that was, like, wow, you know? they did their work. i'm glad they got this guy. i want him to feel he pain, and i want him to be punished for what he did. >> reporter: but you wanted to punish him yourself? >> yeah. yeah. >> reporter: for what he did to your friends? >> exactly. you know? exactly. >> reporter: when daniel went on trial in 1994, the new d.a., jaime esparza, decided to personally prosecute the case. >> and you're going to have to sort through all of the evidence. you're going to have to sort through all of the lies. >> reporter: john williams was esparza's co-counsel. >> this was t

dramatic battle scenes and cameos of beloved characters han solo and chewbacca all over a classic john williams score. be sure to go to our facebook page and tell us who your favorite star wars character is! still to come on live at still to come on live at five.... the end of an erara a wakefield, nebebska store closes a aer 95 years in the family. it's a place that at one time had five implement alers and five grocery stores. brian mastre has the story from wakefield, nebraska. << for anyone`who's worked retail - larry: "when we opened our doors at 7am, we knew which customers would be coming in." it's easy to relate to what happened to charlie and larry soderberg the other night. larry soderberg: "we had a customer walk-in about 5-minutes to 6pm - we close at six." this customer was on a mission. larry: "he looked around and asked, 'is there anyone else in here? is anyone else coming?'" we said, 'nope. you're it." the man had the store to himself - as he shopped for the next 35-minutes. the customer and the owner understood one thing. he couldn't come back totorrow. larry: "he said, 'i wawa

. >> reporter: john williams and a dozen other people who know richard from boron are here searching for him. they're joining search and rescue teams. the sheriff's department says quite honestly they don't know if it's a rescue mission or a recovery mission. all they do know is they're looking for a man in a car swept away in thursday's massive storms. friends say he has property back up there against the hills. >> it's in the middle of the canyon. and he's got a trailer up there. >> reporter: they say he stays there for weeks at a time, going home to boron on weekends. friends have been here before, and had to come back now. >> he's my friend. if i was out here lost, i would hope that my friends would come looking for me. >> if i could, i would be here all night looking for him until we find him. >> reporter: a few miles north is highway 5, the highway smothered in mud from unstable hill sides, leaving those in its path fearing for their lives. two days later, the parade of dump trucks is nonstop. one company told us they have 62 dump trucks on this job. so far, 35 vehicles have be

john williams and -- are both on today.lance on bloomberg television and also on bloomberg radio. ♪ the decision to go depends on the data until then, and we are seeing some mixed trends. the industrial side of the economy where you think you are getting a week p.m. i, on the other hand, we just got 80,000 jobs this week. we think we will get pretty decent auto sales so in the mid-17th on auto sales. as the data continues to hold >> are repaying too much attention to manufacturing? what we have seen is the industrial side week for two reasons, exports, and what is going on in oil and gas. you have seen the collapse in drilling. of those things are continuing to be on the weak side and that is holding the industrial side back. clear that the rest of the economy is doing better. is there a history where central bankers take why equals c, and they say, let's forget about x for a wild. where wea history forget about export dynamics, it do they do that? >> i don't think they can. it is one of the things that has driven the outlo

reporter: the lawsuit stems from the 2012 hiring of an executive secretary for milpitas city manager john williams. federal investigators say an independent three-person panel interviewed and evaluated potential candidates for the $95,000 a year job. but without explanation, williams hired a 39-year-old woman passing over 55, 57 and 58-year-old candidates who performed better in the interview process. >> he is going to undoubtedly contend she was better qualified. we believe that's a pretext for discrimination and an age bias with a real reason for not selecting our three people on whose of what we're suing. >> reporter: the eeoc tried to negotiate a settlement with the city but failed. the case heads to federal court now. we did reach out to the attorney representing the city of milpitas. he says he has received the lawsuit and is reviewing it and has no further comment at this time. in milpitas, devin fehely, kpix 5. >>> a sour note for a soul singer. he was robbed during a video shoot in oakland. ♪[ music ] >> that's a previous video. he and his crew were held up monday by four people as they w

bloomberg will be speaking to john williams this evening at 7:00 p.m. u.k. time. that is it for me.ets .2% higher. the dax up here at best of luck for the rest of your day. ♪ saidine: saudi arabia is to be delaying payments to government contractors as the oil price bites into the budget. manus: china's third-quarter gdp beats estimates, but grows at the slowest rate since 2009. francine: change at the top. deutsche bank's new ceo as he implements the biggest management shakeup in more than a decade. welcome to "the pulse," live from london. manus: saudi

china is importing a record iron ore, because they don't what alix: --ou market your alix: john williams expects inflation to stabilize and growth to persist, allowing for a rate increase in the near future. joe: with me now is robert skidelsky, a well-known biographer of john maynard kent. thank you for joining us. banks around the world have been trying to fight this deflation. everywhere you look there is easy and nobody has been particularly sex oh -- particularly successful at it. why can't you get inflation to their targets essentially? robert: essentially people don't want to test. banks are so overleveraged. the monetary system has really seized up. anyway monetary policy is almost useless. central banks of course want to raise interest rates and rebuild their ammunition the next recession. of course if they do that they will produce the next recession. joe: do you think they need to rethink how they have done it, perhaps with more monetary policy that is direct funding fiscal stimulus or helicopter money type thing, where they direct money to the people? robert: i think fiscal p

and what john williams says is that he sees the labor market almost back to normal, looking good, andhat he sees a case for raising rates soon and slowly. that is the key point. let's take a listen. >> the new normal for interest rates is likely to be lower than it was in the past, partly due to slower growth and demographics. that argues in the end for the fed moving back to a lower federal funds great when we are done with the tightening cycle that we seen in the past. it also argues in my view for this gradual pace of removing accommodation. of different policymakers are saying that if we go to soon, it can do more damage. he is coming out and saying there is nothing wrong with raising rates now, and if we get more bad news down the road -- he's pointing out the case that it can be flexible. back to you. all right. thank you so much for that out of new york. let's check in on markets in asia. for those of you monitoring from the united states, this is how it looks and australia right now. we are four minutes in, 1/5 of afterer, $.70, better-than-expected third-quarter gdp from chin

san francisco fed president john williams says he see as reason to raise rates soon, hence the job market. let's listen. >> we want to get in just right and that means probably in my ew moving earlier and moving longer rather than more rapidly. >> he says if there are negative events in the global markets, they can also reduce the increase in interest rates. rishaad: having a look at the start of the trading day in india, 51 minutes before the session starts in mumbai. two of india's airlines are on the verge of going public. indigo could see india's largest i.p.o. since 2012 and another large carrier could follow suit. let's get a report. a very good day to you. >> good day to you. india's primary market has been buzzing of late. you see companies from across the border looking at the i.p.o. and now india's largest carrier by market share are looking to raise money to pay off its dealt. we understand these funds will largely be used to retire debt which exists on its books. indigo has also said that while it has sufficient money -- funding for this money, it is lower at this point becaus

there's a wonderful quote in the williams and laubach paper from an economist. is he related to you? john henry williams, who was a welch economist, educated in the u.s. he said in 1931, the natural rate is an extraction. like faith, it is seen by its works. one can only say if the bank policy succeeds in stabilizing prices, the bank rate must have been brought in line with the natural rate. but if it does not, it must not have been. so that's why you can't understand what the fed is doing right now. today's event is sponsored not only by the hutchens center but by the initiative on global markets at the university of chicago school of business. this joint venture is the first and we look forward to doing more of this. we have scheduled our second one in chicago for november 10 when we will discuss a book we're putting out called the $13 trillion question, a book that looks at not how much the treasury should borrow but how it borrows. and like this event, that event will be webcast. if you can't make it to chicago, you can still participate. this morning we will begin with a paper that h

scarlet: our exclusive interview with john william at 2:00 p.m. eastern time.things interest rate should be. ♪ alix: welcome back to the -- scarlet: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. we look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. the back-and-forth between amazon and the new york times is not letting up. a times article in august of issue with the culture, work environment, and morale at amazon. jay carney says in an article today that the times piece was misleading. the paper quickly responded taking the article, as well as its reporters. a happye key to employee may be a conversation about pay. recent reports say that underpaid workers deal better about their income after a chat with the boss. pay scale, website that tracks employment, say happiness increased when a manager discussed their pay. scarlet: it's all about mitigation. users if offering its they dump microsoft. we offer is open for the next six months in the u.s., and will eventually be extended to other countries. you always get more business news at bloomberg.com. alix: ju

john williams, a hike should come in the near future.kee sat down with him for an exclusive interview and he joins us now from san francisco. we are looking for much more clarity on where the fed stance. i'm not sure if we got that from williams today. >> at least you know he is ready to raise rates. the new mantra seems to be, soon but slowly. the fed should raise interest rates soon because they would make progress on inflation and unemployment and unemployment will keep going down and there will be more jobs created then we need at the moment. inflation will continue to rise. the only thing is he would not tell us how he would vote at the october or the december fed meetings. not speculate about what my views are for that meeting. again, we started a process really of deep dive briefings. it starts tomorrow for us. i spent a whole week preparing for the meeting and we will get a lot of materials and again, listen to my colleagues. i will not decide on that today. >> some of the markets suggest what he may do is soften his views a bit

john william will receive the lifetime achievement award from the american film institute. he will be the first composer to earn the award. he has won five oscar awards and composed music to other classics like et and jaws and you are listen together indiana jones theme. >> you hear the first top seconds of that song and you are right back in time. >> they obviously knew he had the fire power if you will to write these huge themes. the 1977 album which i have on vinyl. >> what is vinyl? >> yeah. i had the record. london symphony orchestra. i was so geeked out when i got it. >> when i play star wars my five-year-old jumps up and salutes. >> has he seen the movies? >> yeah. we started with four, five, and six. i had never seen one, two, and three. preparation started in january. santa claus brought him four, five, and six. >> meanwhile we are holding off on our five-year-old and seven- year-olds. they have heard the music and made up a song that goes along wit. but they have not seen the movies. we're waiting. >>> garth brooks tickets go on sale in just about five minutes or

mike: i was talking with john williams, the san francisco bank president.ssue with the characterization of the jobs reports as weak. jobre going to have a lower rate. the important -- what is important is that the unemployment rate. carl: we should see the pace of job creation slow. supply and demand economics. as the price of something goes up you consume less. if labor becomes more expensive we should see the pace of hiring slow. we have seen slower hiring because wages have not accelerated to any degree of the last couple of months world the last year. what i think we're seeing is a heightened sense of caution from the private sector due to the financial events of late august and early september as well as what seems to be a weak quarter for earnings as well. that is a different reason from what president williams is highlighting. mike: angus blair from the whent institute, we saw people first started talking about a rate increase, a big impact on emerging markets. we are seeing shares rise again. if the fed stays on hold, is that a green light for emerg

. >> it's, don't you feel it in your gut when you hear that john williams music? neil: no.the way, can we update things, hello? really? >> who do you want to do the soundtrack? neil: i want them to stop. they did prequels. >> you want them to stop why? they can make 10 billion. neil: they will make a lot of money. >> i have to admit this, in the last three films, one, two, and three, out of order almost ruined franchise. neil: tell me about it. >> this is back to live action. neil: you know we're doing a prequel for this show "coast to coast". fat little eddie munster plays the role. torn between doing a good business show or doing something like cnbc. doesn't know which way to go. no? >> i wish i had a light saber right now? where is connell? neil: look at this. this is grown man. >> you know where that came from? i gave that to your producer? neil: did you really? >> i bought him a jedi light saber. neil: you don't know what happens at the household. when we come back. homebuilders. they're feeling the force. feeling the force. more after this. at mfs investment managemen

the john williams music reaches into your soul land grabs you. >> i saw the movie when i was 13, nowto these movies in 2015. it is a cross generational appeal. the highest grows ever. dagen: something neil cavuto does not understand. maria: has watched them? maria: dagen: probably seen clips of them. i said to him -- >> he is -- from the austin powers and movies. maria: looking forward to that, we will see you and neil, next hour, bill mcnab is with us with his take on the markets and investor sentiment. we take a look at the world of white collar crime with richard and former quest ceo joe mott ceo. we will be right back. ...as a combination of see products.. and customers. every on-time arrival is backed by thousands of od employees, ...who make sure the millions of products we ship arrive without damages. because od employees treat customer service... ...like our most important delivery. od. helping the world keep promises. maria: happy wednesday, it is october 21st, i am maria bartiroma and with me is sandra smith and anthony scarmucci, all right is open to running for house spea

police say 60-year-old john c williams also known as johnny fields had a black suv that looked like a police car complete with the decals, the lights an working siren. they say he also had a uniform and handcuffs. williams is currently in jail on a $20,000 bail. >>> a vigil will be held in just a little less than an hour as parishioners at a church in kingsessing look for justice. cameras rolling as someone broke into the healing waters church on the 1700 block of south 56th street this was back in august. a man kicked open the front door and stole two flat screen televisions and a microphone. vigil scheduled to begin at 7:00 with people hoping to raise enough money to replace those stolen items. >>> ♪ >>> can you feel it? it's inescapable. you don't have to be a temple graduate or a college football fan to know everybody is getting pumped for this weekend. the temple owls taking on notre dame in a game that's getting some national attention. our brad sattin is live at the epicenter with everything. the temple campus on north broad street. people getting excited up there, brad? >> rep

you had john williams this week saying as best as he can estimate, this is a voting member of the fomc 2%ate consistent employment is zero or negative. is: your putting green completely gone. the golf course metaphor is gone. john: i don't even think we know what sport we are playing. tom: good point. how do you respond to what professor claire to just said? take the have to numbers consistently. if you look at the work before, you have to estimate the neutral rate along with the output gap or nairu for employment. that is an issue, janet yellen was guilty of that. ns todouble plug io translate what you just said. you cannot have one and forget about the other. say my worknnot shows the neutral rate should be zero and also shows the economy is beyond for employment. and then say we've got a lot of slack in the labor markets, a've got a zero rate and negative output gap. tom: you and i have to discuss this with a beer in our hand. jonathan: it is too early to talk about the phillips curve. you talk about the economic models, do you throw out the models of yesteryear and we deal with a n

i want to go back to what san francisco fed president john williams said, an important issue.ey months ago, which is, what is the normal run rate of the economy? let's assume -- >> yeah. >> assume for a second, arguable point, we're at full employment here, that's where we'll be. >> i understand what john east talking about. very good point. >> population growth in the country is between 90-125,000. this is what you'd expect, and i remember, you need to throw this into the pot here, williams said that's strong enough for him to go. >> steve -- >> yes, he did say that. >> markets do not agree it's full employment. market would not react like this, or trading like thp. >> it's great reaction to concerns of the economy. >> i agree with that. it's not about the fed, but the economy, what's really happening. >> that's the point. >> it's not full employment, and the economy does not believe -- sorry, the market does not believe we're full employment and market does not believe this level of job growth is broerpt. >> explaining a 2% yield in the ten year clearly, doesn't it? >> right

dramatic battle scenes and cameos of beloved characters han solo and chewbacca all over a classic john williams score. this is the first full length trailer after a pair of teaser trailers were released online earlier this year. ebony magazine is causing a stir with its new cover. it shows bill cosby's fictional t-v family underneath shattered glass. and an editorial is asking... what's to become of the cosby show's cultural legacy if cosby personally has been tainted. "the cosby show" was a ground-breaker in terms of depicting the african-american family life. some say the cover is good because it starts conversation about cosby. at least 35 women have accused cosby of sexual assault or rape over the years -- but cosby has never been charged -- partly because the statute of limitation has expired in most cases. britain's prince william spoke on chinese t-v yesterday about the need to protect wildlife. william appealed to the chinese people to do their part to protect elephants, rhinos and other animals. asian illegal trade in ivory and traditional medicine are driving forces of poaching elepha

will hear from a number of different red officials this week, we will hear from esther george and john williamsl get some more insight. rates to check on fluctuating in the 10 year yield. it has been a relatively choppy session for bonds. 2%ll very close to that threshold. isdman sachs says the fed going to delay its interest rate increase until well into 2016 and perhaps even later. iss reflects sentiment that becoming more conventional wisdom in the market. bloomberg at the terminal here which prices and the probability through interest-rate futures. only about 34%. the bottom chart is that trajectory for the december meeting. in other words, we had seen the probability hovering closer to 50% and then we have gradually seen a decrease in that probability and now we are not seeing it going out until march. it is fascinating how it has become conventional wisdom that the fed is on hold for the rest of the year, even as the fed continues to say it is not the case. extends to the bank of england. it is a central bank credibility problem. alix: can the fed actually move if the fed is not pricing i

you mentioned eric rosengren, john williams, all scheduled to speak in this time when we are basically in no man's land. is this helpful, all these conversations? constance: i don't think -- i would ask a different question. they are going to speak. they are fed officials. they probably had these on their calendar before we got the most recent data. i think of someone like esther george who is more hawkish and rotating onto the voting membership next january, you want to pay attention to what she is saying. williams has been very thoughtful. i was at a meeting with him in the summer and he was saying we have to mind the lag and think about the lag between policy action and the impact on the economy as we start to get data in globally in august and start to see the questionable data in the u.s. what he says is going to be very interesting in light of the recent data we have had. i think it is important to pay attention to what they are saying. alix: thank you, constance. we want to take a look at bloomberg's first word today. mark crumpton has more. the united states and 11 other pacifi

else.ve all justices,eme court john marshall, william chase, cushing, and moore. the number was set at six. did they not anticipate tied vote? >> the supreme court was not as important as it became. it was in the even number. how odd from our point of view. they anticipated judicial review. they did not anticipate it would be the 800-pound gorilla it would become. >> it symbolizes the very weak supreme court in the system of government. in washington, as it becomes the capital, you had the presidents house, the capital under , and no one thought where the supreme court would meet. it was that insignificant. some planning the city were raising that and could not get the intention of anybody, including john marshall. when he becomes chief justice, there is more pressure. they ended up giving the supreme court a small room in the withal that they shared courts.l dc.c. they are basically are away in space. >> article iii's third out of three. -- article iii is third out of three. it is the shortest article. prescribestute that the number of justices. it is not set out

the one that we thought was really important was john williams from san francisco. before the payroll number that came out at 142,000 that folks thought were bad, he said 100,000 in payrolls is enough to produce, shrink labor slack and be enough for them to move rates this year. that's important. >> but isn't -- and they've repeated that mantra. many in the market don't think they'll move. they also think that the fed is captive to the markets. in other words, if i think you won't move, you won't move. if they do then move, that's going to upset a lot of people. >> a game of chicken going on. the market is winning it. the fed keeps pushing and pushing. however they have two jobs. labor, full employment and price stability. full employment they've met. averaging 200,000 jobs. the inflation one, two things that held inflation down. commodity prices over the last year, dollar, the ferocious rally in the dollar. they believe the pace in those two things are slowing. >> so you have reduced your exposure to equities in this environment. >> yeah. >> you added selective hig

you would have someone like yellen fighting research from john williams that would put that around 0% and -1%. there are others at the federal reserve staff that think it is more like 1% and one .5% positive. this is something where think opinions are pretty much all over the map in terms of what is a normal real interest rate. said aseven yellen has recently as september that where interest rates are now is below normal. therefore, they are stimulative and have to move up over time. how much below normal, i think, is where there is not a whole lot of agreement right now. scarlet: the bottom line is that there is also no precedent for this kind of exit from stimulus. we have never been here before. there is no playbook for the fed to refer to. there is of course understandably a lot of angst surrounding it. what surprises you about how investors are pricing in this uncertainty, given the s&p 500 is within 2.5% of its record ish and the 10 year yield near 1.6%? michael: i do not find it all that surprising. the degree to which investors are pushing the feds credibility is somewhat surp

just yesterday, we had john williams speaking exclusively to bloomberg television.son to increase rates in and slowly. here is why. a good place.n the u.s. economy is strong and have good momentum going forward. we have significant headwinds abroad. with the balance of those, we can remove monetary accommodation over the few years gradually and get these goldilocks economy -- not too hot, not to call. -- not to call. betty: joining us now is very rich whole. do you think with comments like that that that is confusing the markets even more? barry: i don't think so. it has been clear for a long time of the fed has been having an internal debate. there are hawks that would like to see rates begin the process of normalizing. there is a handful of does that look at the economy that is still relatively soft are not as strong as they want. in particular, inflation is tactically nonexistent and deflation is the concern. there's another group within the we have beenhe -- having a few nice weeks or two. betty: you sound like an economist. barry: we have had volatility in the

next june john williams will receive the lifetime achievement award from the american film institute.will be the first ever composer to get that honor. he is 88 years old. he has won five oscars. she has composed music for other clashes like et, jaws, and indiana jones. he's a great guy too. >>> time is 8:57. coming up in two minutes mornings on 2 the 9. our political reporter ross palombo will join gasia, mike, and sal. he will broke down the effort to fill john boehner's house speaker seat. >> and you have to see it to believe it. norman the bike riding dog is right here in the bay area. and this morning he is showing us his tricks. comes from doing the right thing. like the radical idea that health isn't an industry. it's a cause. so we do things differently. we combine care and coverage. and believe prevention is the most powerful of cures. so forgive us for not going with the flow. we just think the flow should go with us. which makes us rebels with one cause. your health. >>> a homicide in golden gate park and along a marin county hiking trail. details on the three suspects that

at the question, donald trump, are you a comic book villain, ben carson, can you do that, john case and william insults we did people over here, marco rubio, why don't you resign, jeb bush, what have your numbers fallen, how about talking about substantive issues? >> reporter: crews layer of olive branchs to one of the moderators. >> some could tequila or color on a brownies. >> reporter: chris christie had his election for the questions after a query on whether daly fantasy football should be classified as gambling. >> wait a second. we had $18 trillion in debt, people lot of work, isis and al qaeda attacking us and we're talking about fantasy football? >> reporter: the candidates did discuss some other issues like ben carson's plan for a flat tax. carson, the new front runner in this race took issue with the claim that it would leave the government was too little riddle revenue. >> worked out very well. >> reporter: the man chasing person, donald trump was quieter than normal but not silence by any means. he hammered ohio governor john kasich for turning negative. >> he was such a nice guy an

we had comments today from san francisco fed president john williams in which he was going to lay outase for, hey, even if we see bad data, a slowing jobs growth number, that's actually sort of a good thing because it means the economy is no longer running over potential because he said that if you see job growth at the level that we've seen over the past year, if you see economic growth at the level we've seen over the past year, the fed will ends up overshooting the inflation target. you start to see a little bit of the case being made. >> how can you talk about worries over overshooting? nobody, not consumers, nobody in the market, nobody think is fed is going to overshoot the inflation target at this point. >> i think rick santelli was talking eight not too long ago, as a matter of fact. the point being you're starting to see the make the case for the fact that bad data would not necessarily be a reason to delay. >> the data wasn't bad today. >> coming into tomorrow. jobs report. >> the pmis was a relief to many people, right? ism, i think people thought was going to go below hift

fed president john williams said more adjustments could come in the future. >> maybe we do raise interest necessary, we could use the other tours -- other tools. david: beyond what you think the fed may or may not do, you are .nvolved in business is janet yellen says she is data dependent. >> i do not think there are any data precise enough to find two -- fine tune. it is trivial. they have exaggerated the importance. if you look at all the pr that have receded it, you would think it is at the end of the world. if that is all what is keeping the economy going, we have got nothing going on. stephanie: what is standing in her way? fed says their data dependent, they have always been paired it is just a matter of pulling the trigger. matt: paper came out not long ago positing the theory that the natural rate interest is negative 3.1%. if that is true, the rates are already too tight. where do you pay the natural interest now? >> if it is a negative interest, we really are in trouble because that is not the dynamic rate growing economy. returns have been pushed down in part because we have be