jon ferro. some of the other headlines.ring as jon anted at its declining for fourth month according to hsbc. it missed estimates. stocks fell on concern that china's economic is gradually declining. osting shinzo abe today. the latest leg of the tour. it will focus on free trade. they are trying to forge a free-trade deal with the u.k. talking mounting tensions, ukraine is seeking the separatist in the heartland. the and. -- the interior ministry said they have regained control. violence has spread to the black sea gateway. let's stay with that story. straight tocow as the news reporter who joins us from the phone. henry, the actions of this aekend takes us forward quite long way. we are seeing open conflicts in the countryparts in including odessa which is significant. if we are looking for pretext to our russian reaction, does it go far enough? headinginly, we are into that direction. the spokesperson for blood where putin issued a strongly worded statement which said they have blood on their hands and the western countr

. -- jon ferro has a more.resignation. >> let's talk about some fine. $2.5 billion. or 2 billionllion dollars, the consequences of a guilty plea. what does it mean? is moreant because it than symbolic. will the bank continued to deal with credit suisse? lloyd blankfein said he would be very reluctant, reluctant to change in the structure of how they do the business. >> precisely. the banks will be reluctant what to cease doing business. this about and to requirements that may prohibit the companies from doing business that is pleasing guilty to a crime. there are many unknowns. if you look at some of the comments, people do not know what the consequence of the guilty plea are. >> the regulators, other institutions are worried. it is not a presidents. it is a rather ironic message for regulators to say not to worry. let's go after a foreign bank. >> regulators want to make a case. they were under pressure to get if and a big guilty plea. it could come later today. , where more serious note does this entire story

with me is jon ferro. hans nichols is standing by in berlin.e got futures indicating higher open. you said to me, had i look at -- look at italian government bond yields? >> down. the big winner in these european elections was not just the anti-european party. >> futures are a little bit higher. go to ryan in kiev. ukraine has a new president. almost certainly. of ukrainianan politics. he is a billionaire who made his fortune making and selling chocolate. he is all but certain to be announced president-elect of even as violence threatens the nature of the ukrainian state as we know it. breakdown get a full on those election results and political implications shortly. let's cross to berlin and hans nichols. a little bit of an upset to say 30% of european parliament is filled with antiestablishment rds. .- parties >> there were upsets all night and surprises, but perhaps the renzit one is that matteo came in at 41%. the other was 21%. this is an antihero vote across the board. it's an antiestablishment vote across the board. then anti-euro vote a

jonathan ferro has much more pressing things on his mind, such as fed policy. jonsterday? >> we learned what she has told us before. she does a brilliant job of giving you absolutely nothing yesterday. i think she read alan greenspan's guide to fedspeak. she did not give anything away. my yellen map is very similar to my previous. gdp, she blamed that on the weather. inflation, lwow flation. bubbles. what bubbles? jobs. beneath the headline numbers, wages are still very flat. she did not really surprise anyone yesterday. you will get a repeat of this at 2:30 uk time when she goes in front of the senate budget committee. banknk one investment called her the brooklyn dodger yesterday. >> she was pressed on the amount of time between the end of tapering and the interest rate hiking. that is prettily when she said that six months frame. >> she was not having any of it. for just short of two hours, they pushed her. she gave nothing away. >> housing is a risk. our guest earlier from the fed in atlanta talks about that. >> we are starting to see a slowdown. he get the gen

jon ferro in zÜrich on credit suisse. coming up, new laws and big deals.company is now strategizing its peers in health care. >> sync crime does not pay? what the real wolf of wall street gets paid for making speeches. an outstanding sum. stay "in the loop," we are just getting started. ♪ >> you are watching "in the loop," live on bloomberg television. streaming on your tablet, phone, and bloomberg.com. bloomberg is hosting a cfo conference. looking at the changes in the boiler room. companies looking to see your photos to fill the top photos. john mulligan was just named the interim ceo of target. there are some famous shakeups. from pepsico to time warner more. darden, those boards elevating their ceos to the top. the chief financial officer of consulting firm pricewaterhousecoopers will be speaking at our conference. great to see you. the role of the cfo changed? maybe made it even more appropriate to look to that c sition to become the her of the company? -- the next leader of the company? >> it has changed. in the first 20 years of my career, the busi

jon ferro joins us. what are we expecting in the u.s.? >> the headline number is 218,000.e more grown-up. we look at a whole range of indicators. i will use a bit of a housing analysis and compared the labor market to a buyers market. so you have lots of people looking for too few jobs. the employer is the buyer. he can offer them what he likes. what you want to see today is want to see wages go up. wages is the magic number. not just for the fed but for the bank of england as well. it is an indicator the slack has been reduced. look at the underemployed and look at wages. this one is quite vague. i will tell you why -- this one is quite big. you can no longer blame the weather. >> i am from the u.k. i can blame the weather for everything. look, we are very good at tracking the data. we always have convictions. we always talk to analysts and make sure we know what is going on. not enough. >> it is not enough. i agree. most economists would agree this is a guessing game every month. it is a very important number. at bloomberg, we are using a twitter guess. #nspguesses. that

jon ferro has the details. >> if you follow the bank of england, you will be used to the phrase ratesld. the central bank is hihgh by 375 basis points. infaltion -- inflation is too high. there is also a political aspect to this as well. the president faces an election in october. the of god inflation and growth heading south. that is not a good message into elections. and this little thing called world cup. >> in terms of the world cup -- and i know you are looking forward to it a great deal -- talk to me about whether or not this will be a solution to some of the problems because if you listen and read reporting in brazil, they are getting hacked off about this. they see this that is highlighting the difference between the rich and poor. they talk about the fact is not generating the jobs they hoped it would. how much of a solution is this? >> the price tag is $11 billion. we've done work on this. we found a piece of graffiti that tells us "taurus to not get sick. -- tourists don't get sick. we do not have stadiums, we have hospitals." the brazlian people are asking, what's in it fo

some confidence, but let's talk to jon ferro. >> asia higher overnight.the future is let to the morning. look at those levels. a six-year high on the stoxx 100. all-time high over on the dax in germany. 9:00 supply data it out at u.k. time. general -- german unemployment expected to stay at 6.7%. compared germany to everyone else. let's bring you you market open on your morning. down just a touch. that flat across most of europe with the exception of the footsie which voices -- pushes higher by one quarter of the present. you are looking for retail times -- sales a, at 11:00 take him -- 11:00 a.m. u.k. time. inflation is too low. we have to do something about it. we need to stay committed to that 2% inflation target. what is the risk of underperforming? they have got to do more. that is the big debate. .> indeed, we do or they do, jon. the battle for alstrom that continues. meeting witht is french president francois hollande as well as siemens. each of them made their case to the french lawmakers last night. joins us.onnan >> it was a head to head battle

for more on the story, jon ferro has the news. 2 billion dollars is quite a sizable deal. >> it is. not a surprise. the amount of money, not a surprise. unilever a link back some food. they are going into the health and these the business -- health and beauty business. they sold skippy peanut butter last year. selling ragu, not a big surprise. thoseet revenue out of two products. it is a big sale. 2.15? that is a little bit higher. let's talk slightly more broad context. we had disappointing purchasing managers index from france. and germany possibly is the ballast. >> we say no shock and france but the market was expecting expansion. it was certainly a disappointment in that regard. when you have gdp at zero percent, we were looking for a rebound in this quarter. the main pmi is showing a contraction. that is not pretty. germany, are they going to bail out the rest of the eurozone? you have pressure on them to have some more domestic consumption to help the rest of the eurozone. are they going to start doing that? germany doing something, the rest of the europe stumbling. what can

jon ferro is at the touch with some stocks to watch. >> to stocks and one story. here they are. expanded rail franchise, an estimated 200 million passengers a year. go-ahead up seven percent. first group is the company that missed out on this deal. >> these are the bloomberg top headlines today. two troubled eurozone countries have been upgraded as their economies improve. fitch increased the debt level to b and standard & poor's raised spain's credit rating one level to bbb. hasence in eastern ukraine severely increased ahead of this weekend's presidential election. an attack left 15 ukrainian soldiers dead. it was the worst loss in battle with separatists since the crisis began in march. accusesrnment from kiev russia of trying to destabilize the nation before sunday's ballots. fell after a military coup was announced in the nation. closed the national tv station and a nationwide curfew is in place overnight. for more on this situation, let's ring in zeb eckert from hong kong. just bring us up to speed on why thailand's government reached the point of a coup. remember, it has

some confidence, but let's talk to jon ferro. >> asia higher overnight. morning. look at those levels.

>> jon ferro with the latest on credit suisse. >> the swiss are going to the polls on sunday to vote on two key issues. one concerning fighter jets, the other concerning pay. hans nichols is in berlin with the details. let's kick it off with these fighter jets. the swiss would buy from swedish companies. how are the polls looking? should saab be worried about losing a big contract? >> saab is worried. i was in sweden earlier this week talking to them. when you look at the latest polls, 51% of swiss voters could cancel this $3.5 billion contract. it is a remarkable moment where you have the swiss voters saying this fighter jet is too expensive even though it is one of the cheapest on the market. this is very much about cost. when you look at the saab griffin, it has a lower cost per hour flying time than any of its competitors. that is one of the reasons this would be such a remarkable setback. the griffin is marketed as a low-cost versatile alternative to the roth a.l. or the f 35. that is just one of two important votes. the other one, the highest national minimum wage. that one may

jon ferro has the details. 2.5 billion dollars, that is probably above most people's anticipations. down with brady dougan a couple months ago. he was confident they were making progress. they settled with the sec and they put more money aside. that might not be enough, they put aside $425 million on top of the 290 $5 million from 2011. this is a lot bigger than anticipated. >> and a lot bigger than ubs' fines. inthat comparison has been the past couple years. early, 2009,h this 700 $80 million will stop this is three times that they. ubs had to give more client information, they gave about 4700 accounts. credit suisse have only given stoput of 20,000 council people are criticizing the investigators for taking so long for notit suisse dealing with this as quickly as possible. investigators have been criticized for not getting banks to admit to their guilt. that has been a criticism after the financial crisis. admits guilt,se that is a leap forward. >> they are under a lot of pressure. who pleads guilty? the parent company or the subsidiary? that raises questions for brady dougan. he

jon ferro is here with details.'ll stop with the u.s. >> 218,000 is the number we're looking for. it matters because you can no longer blame the weather. if there is a weak number, i think people are expecting a stronger one because they are expecting a rebound. this matters across the three months coming because this quarter is supposed to be the rebound quarter. just 1% growth. pathetic. the federal reserve is pinning a lot on this. they are expecting some growth. >> it is not just the jobs data. >> no, it is not. nobody is going to be looking at one data point. they are going to be looking at a broad rangor indicators. we're looking at underemployment. those that have part time work and want full time work wage specific sli right at the heart of this labor market. >> you're tracking this in a new way today? >> i'm going share that with you today. twitter guess is around about 211,000. if you do hash tag nmp fp guesses or bloomberg estimate nsp, we collect all of that data and do a nice little forecast. >> 211,000

jon ferro is here with all the macros scenes you should be watching today. >> do that again.y about it till is brilliant -- about italy is brilliant. include the sales of illegal drugs and prostitution in your gdp calculation? spain and italy have complained over the last couple of years about their and implement statistics. obviously, if you are working in the unofficial economy and the black market, you're not counted as employed. so they can be inflated somewhat. if you include these statistics in your gdp figure, it's not going to help your unappointed figures. >> it might. >> here's what is going to happen. you have a budget deficit target of 3% of gdp. so you grow the economy, make gdp bigger. one way of doing that is including those numbers from the black market coming putting illegal drug sales, prostitution, and that is what they're going to do. on the face of it, it seems like a national forest. but there are reasons they are doing it. >> do we think the germans are going to allow this for a debt to gdp ratios? out there.utting it >> the eu rose to do just that. >>

. >> thank you so much, jon ferro on the central bank story. let's go to the commercial bank story. profit slumping 17 percent and missing estimates as russia's economy is hurt by sanctions. what happens next is interesting as well. hans nichols joins us on that. >> a most interesting number -- we will do a lot of numbers, jon .erro it is the forward looking numbers. that is the provisions sberbank has set aside for loan losses, they have doubled provisions. this is a barometer of the russian economy. it is difficult to figure out what is happening because we have only lagging indicators. the imf says the country is in recession. the first quarter growth was at .9 percent. here's what we have from the biggest lender in russia. last quarter profits missed by 17%. fell to 73 billion rubles, that billion. last year it was about 80 billion rubles. when you look at the provisions for bad loans, all the way up to 77.1 billion rubles. that is almost $2.2 billion. that is a remarkable set aside for an economy that was coming six months to eight months ago. a lot of pressure on the ruble. a

bloombergned by our billionaires reporter and jon ferro is here. tom, let's start with you.se who don't know, who are the glazers? >> it is an american family headed up by malcolm glazer and he has kids taking over the operation. they are the public face, the guys who turn up the traffic. >> very rarely. >> there is bitterness in your heart, mark. what about the holdings? how much of the stock do they own? >> they now own 58% of the company. that is a stake worth about $1.7 billion. it is a big chunk of their fortune, around $45 billion for the whole family. >> mark barton is a manchester united fan and the first thing he said, very rarely seen. that is the problem, they are not like. you talk to a manchester united fan and they will tell you that. >> look at the figures. is $366 million. they paid out interest and other financing costs. that money, as a fan, you would have wanted to go to biting new players. is why they fans are in the problems they are in. they have taken a lot of money out of this club. >> that is sort of the problem. they are not necessarily manchester u

jon ferro will tell us what the market is thinking and what mr. carney might be preparing to tell us. >> you were going to get forecast growth and inflation. that is the only two things people care about is rate hikes. the bank of england is looking for 3.4% growth and employment has come below that seven percent unemployment threshold they had me going on about. it is spare capacity that they seem to be focusing on right now. nobody has a clue how much will be left of it. >> they said it was 1.5% in february. >> that is the immediate projection but the issue is there was a white divisional which individual policymaker thinks there is. the issue perhaps is in the labor markets. if you look at wage growth, that may be the best indicator. two guide to work at the bank of england says that could be your best indicator of slack. it is a pure reflection of supply and demand fundamentals. but we have seen is wage growth just start to have inflation. we only turned a corner. it has been a long time. it is about trajectory and how fast this moves forward.

we are joined by jonathan ferro and jennifer ryan. jon. start with you, the expectation is we get no change from draghi today. is pointingn data in the direction of further action at some point. >> there are several reasons we are not expecting anything to happen today. we get forecast next month. what i will say is inflation, lowflation, call it what you want, not low enough. on the periphery, we have seen better data in the likes of spain and italy. i think the larger point to make is that on the governing council, is there any agreement on what tool they are going to use next? what are they going to do about bank lending? to use are going unconventional tools, which tools are they going to use? >> inflation not low enough for germany and the euro not high enough for germany. all the exporters are screaming in pain. near 1.39,me we get mario draghi tries to talk it down. it gets to the point where it is time to walk the walk. talking the talk has not worked for six weeks. he has used pretty aggressive language and it has done nothing. co

here with me is caroline hyde, jonathan ferro, hans nichols in westminster, and david tweed is in berlin. jonhigher start. u.s.,ord highs in the almost touching decade-eyes on the ftse. we have been here before, but we have not pushed through with any conviction. a look at the data. u.s. retail sales down. data picks up today. hans following pfizer and after zeneca ahead of key hearings today. more on that. >> we like the smell of a parliamentary hearing first thing in the morning. to convincebe able the public and this parliament that it is about jobs and research, not just taxes? in a few minutes, we have an important interview with a labor and the -- mp. we will get a sense on just how hostile it may be. and she hasis here her eye on the airline industry. easyjet reported earlier. rex it did. bang in line with expectations is not good enough to send the share price higher. they said it could potentially decrease a little bit. once again, read