jon ferro has decided to get up early. he is excited about today.to go, a long day ahead of him, but he is fully caffeinated. what are they saying? jonathan: non-decision, federal confusion,: what you want. is draw ahave to do distinction between the short-term debate and a long-term debate, and the short-term debate we have seen over the last several years is went to move by 25 basis points -- do you do it now, in december? that is where you have zero consent over the federal -- zero consensus. where you have consensus is this long-term rate that will be longer for lower and if they can draw the distinction between a debate in the short term in the long term i think they can make things clearer but things aren't clear now at all. of you have seen is the fed take a hit to the credibility over the last couple months and the conversations are revolving around that -- look to the dot plot that was there this time last year. they saw a rates this time last year around 1.4%. we are nowhere near that and that is why the fed has no credibility. every time

[laughter] tom: jon ferro, thank you so much. this is a real treat.chael mayo, one of the most controversial bank analysts out there. richard haass of course with the council of foreign relations with us as well cured what is the level of panic, michael? we are back at labor day, we have to figure out next year's budget. do not kid me -- they are sweating bullets at the two big to fail banks. there are different ways to sweat bullets cured on the one hand, the banking industry is healthier than it has been in decades based on these rings of the balance -- the strength of the balance sheet. notice wedding about the failure of the u.s. bank. tom: agreed. michael: on the other hand, you have the worst revenue growth in ifades, in 80 years, and you're not making it on the top line, is the only way to make it in the bottom line, to better control the census. that means reduction in headcount, reduction in compensation. tom: you have done the map. -- math. you have that j.p. morgan and wells fargo. wells fargo in yellow, jpmorgan and white. on, michael mayo

i will be with jon ferro on bloomberg radio. ♪ mark: trade cautiously.he bank of japan and fed decision tomorrow. bnp bet on a shock hike. the debut. theresa may on the new brazilian migrationsays the -- takes center stage. bolstering the balance sheet. -- to securitize billions of dollars of corporate loans. ♪ mark: welcome to "the pulse."

my colleague jon ferro. what is the story?looking for a proxy -- we are looking for a proxy for who won this one, you look to the mix can peso. -- he wouldets, replace her. remember the 2018, her term is going to expire. whoever is the next president, early next year has a decision to make. do you extend her term argue replace our nominate someone else? this is reminiscent of the election campaign of 2012. it came down to something very juvenile for the markets. who would come after bernanke he. -- would come after bernanke he -- bernanke? it is going to come to something very juvenile for the market. i would ask the question, does donald trump care if he is the risk-off tended echo i am not sure he does -- risk-off candidate? i am not sure he does. market? a complacent if you think about it, whoever the next president is may face a divided government. the checks and balances. it is difficult to get policy through. maybe the market just except whoever is going to be the next president, it doesn't matter. that is one side. if y

david westin on assignment and jon ferro on vacation. .obs added in august less than estimate but marketseaction. matt: we saw that drop in the short-term yield. been comingey have in a little bit and still not back to where they were. sending out in an e-mail, that maybe this report should be viewed as a beat in the sense that everyone was talking about and there isfect in effect with the payrolls week that might explain the week and perhapsngs after adjustments, it was not that bad. not much different than what professor alan krueger said. alix: from that, it is barely off. coming up, jobs friday. we will drill down with alan krueger, princeton professor of economics, and mohamed el-erian and bank of america's head of rates and foreign-exchange research, david woo, and chief white house economist jason furman, so heavyweights to weigh in. joe: absolutely. quick check of the markets board, looking at equities. as you can see, continued gains and reversal and rates. up 1.32%, leading the way. alix: taking a look at the stocks, we were saying defense but the ftse run the highs of the sessi

jon ferro and david westin are both off. you have a minute taker at the moment.he data. there is so much going into this. we got some big goings-on in terms of european stocks. alix: fx looking at the dollar, but the sterling moved off that u.k. pmi a little bit of risk coming into the market i'll caroline: particularly with the banks il we have a better -- we have a special interview. -- the biggest insulin maker. lars joergensen be joining us. he has been at the company sense 1991. of the market, it will be about wait-and-see for the jobs number. it is global pmi day, getting a lot of data points and having risk on affect. in the markets. europe, of 5/10 of 1% coy. italy and france, a little weak. european banks, the biggest three-day jump in july helping to boost the markets. in the fx market, the dollar and the pound. seeing the dollar search. in terms of the u.s. dollar, it is beating the drum towards jobs friday as we get the numbers. high,-yen, one-month continuing to push lower. in the commodity market really reacting. you are seeing copper, nickel, and z

coming up shortly is "bloomberg " with david westin and jonathan ferro. jon talking , and there is all this central-bank talk. jon: a real shakeout in the global bond market. a record-setting rally so far in 2016. speculation over central banks, steeper yield curves. jeff gundlach takes on the work function on the bloomberg terminal. we will get some insight from former minneapolis fed president gary stern. my question is, why, key, did code daysneed does off just because he went to yankee stadium? -- this tom keene need two days off just because he went to yankee stadium? mike: i guess so. francine: this is a holiday because tom keene is not here. i have given him my days off. mike: so generous. francine: we will talk about steve major in the next hour. the world is oldest bank -- the world's oldest bank -- investors are seeking a change in leadership to back the italian lend' around plan and avoid a bailout. ellen zentner from morgan stanley and peter take from citigroup -- -- and peter tague from citigroup or they are ousting the ceo at exactly a time wher

. ♪ jon: from new york city, this is bloomberg. i am jonathan ferro.hakeout in global on markets. the german 10-year yield approaching zero, up 4 basis points. we speak to the bond market guru . is your mining -- it is your morning must watch. take a listen. gilt yields got way too low. and the brexit vote got yields down to half a percent. we are back toward 1%, in our opinion. atthe time of forecasting 1% the start of the year, the yields were much higher, and then they went through our target and now they are going back toward it. the key story is the fiscal loosening that is possibly going to come through. --a has been very matter data has been better than expected. it does seem the valuations on the gilt did not reflect the data. francine: y? steven: it is taking a wild. the qe -- it is taking a file -- while.taking a wj if the policy changes, fiscal policy is loosened in some way with these infrastructure projects and something is coming, then there will be more gilt. to me, these levels at the moment are probably too low. most of this has been a

jon: this is bloomberg. i am jonathan ferroion, this is how we train on the majors. down about 1/10 of 1% on the dow. a similar move on the nasdaq. helping to explain that modestly lower open here for the nasdaq, apple isn't the biggest drag on the nasdaq, as sparks as its top apple i.t. hardware pick replacing it with western digital. the iphone sales may not be as robust as some think. he thinks he sees in improving dynamic storage server dynamic. , plunging big loser his intercellular therapy. actuallyit was succeeded. thisanalysts are defending , absolutely plunging on the open. , institutions will have a hard time getting the returns they need. howard marks gave his affectations yesterday at bloomberg markets most influential summit. asfive and a half strikes me the most reasonable expectation. for the long-term. >> that is a big problem for this country. is of somewith us off. seven and a half, maybe 8%, getting to five. how much is that. part of the book of the market that he is in, i am not sure that is a feasible targe

jon: from new york city, i'm .onathan ferro risk aversion dominated pretty much every asset class with equity market this is how we trade. 6/10 of 1% on the s&p 500 and the nasdaq, down by about 40 points. let's catch up with abigail doolittle. abigail: after two weeks of gains for the nasdaq we have the index sharply lower and one of the drags, acacia communications. shares of the munication lower.nt maker are they announced a 450 million secondary offering. this comes months after the company's may ipo. some investors may not like the timing of that. plus there is a huge shortage of 36%. , thisg lower on the open after the taiwanese circulator was downgraded from a neutral to a buy. they goes against the grain. most of the analysts are bullish on the stock and on average most analysts see more than 15% upside potential for the shares of high max h --imax. jon: thank you very much. one story we have been following is deutsche bank's ongoing troubles. shares dropped to a record low out of concerns of mounting bills including the justice department's proposed $14 billion fine for its mo

this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jon: from new york city, this is bloomberg and i'm jonathan ferro.e session on wall street. futures flat, stable. equities in europe, rolling on the back of an ecb not decision. the dax not unchanged down by six tens of 1%. -- it is ang up softer dollar story. very briefly with a 113 handle. the story in the bond market today was this right here -- a record low, all-time low, new record for spanish 10 year yields. then we reverse and yield push higher. potentially, by more debt on the periphery supporting the likes of spain, italy, etc. we will raise some of the session's moves. the big question from mario draghi is the news conference coming up in 13 minutes time is when you going to extend qe? are you going to have to change the rules? that is the countdown as we wait 8:30 eastern time for that ecb news conference. let's get to the headlines with emma chandra? >> president obama has not changed his mind on donald trump. today, the president called the republican presidential candidate's ideas contradictory and outright wacky. >> as far as mr. trump

jon: more than $41 million of such -- stock and salary. crude compromising. it made compromises with iran on a future freeze. david: i am david westin with jonathan weston -- jonathan ferrot is not an easy job this morning. jon: you want to be focused on the bank. there is a report out of the newspaper that the government was having a plan being done over the finance industry. if you are an investor, you are getting whipsawed by the news. alix: i go back to german sailing two-year notes in the -.7% yield. we have seen a lot of money flown into bonds. david: there is some contagion through the market. commerzbank is laying off 9000 people. jon: plans for 9000 people. alix: we are tackling that throughout the next two hours. we have some big guests ahead so stay with us. marathon asset management and assets under management brees richards will be joining us plus the president and ceo of one of america's largest automakers, mark fields. john, talking about opec is the story of the day. in the markets, futures looking boring. the s&p 500, equities in europe, with the dax trading high. deutsche bank up by three percentage points. in the fx market, very little price action her

jon: from new york city. this is bloomberg. i am jonathan ferro. a big week ahead for markets.on, fed decision. futures positive up 78 points on the dow. s&p futures positive around nine points. the dax up by 82 points. the dax and focus last week because deutsche bank got hammered. banks coming back a little bit in today's session. every industry group is gaining on the session. of gainsroad-based day in europe after two weeks of losses. let's see what the action is the other asset classes. in the fx market, a softer dollar index. down .5%. trading david: you know what time it is? it is time for battle of the charts. today we have alix steel against caroline hyde. caroline in berlin i believe. you go first. thanks for being with us. >> a pleasure, david. i go first with a show of what is three risks currently in the market this week affecting volatility in the yen. go to this on your bloomberg terminal. you not only have the fed. you've also got japan's two holidays which are going to be affecting volatility. in the white line, you see the one-week implied volatility up 17%. t

. ♪ jon: from new york, this is "bloomberg ." i am jonathan ferro. lows of the session on the dax the highs of the session -- down by just a quarter of 1%. what a session it has been for european lenders. the opening bell ringing in new york. switch up the board. futures positive. looking at bonds -- yields unchanged. to one .12.ck wrapping up the session, the trading week, 10 seconds into the cash open, let's strip this back. alix: a big reversal for u.s. stocks -- the dow was up by over 200 points yesterday. now we are up 84. the s&p was up by 30 points overnight in the futures market, now it is up 10 points. the quarter --f i want to highlight what happened to the nasdaq -- the best quarter since 2013. the dow also helped, powered by the likes of apple. the banks were lower yesterday, up in the premarket, continuing to move a touch higher. wells fargo off by the most, relatively flat. the california treasurer calling for john stumpf's resignation. both oregon and new york london new yorkman and ceo -- wanting the chairman and ceo role split. shoul

. ♪ jon: from new york city, this is "bloomberg ." i'm jonathan ferro.is indeed another busy day for the fed before the quiet until begins. deutsche bank says governor lael brainard's speech is an important opportunity. great to have you with us on the program. this speech gets scheduled come and you come out with a note that says this is an opportunity, and all of a sudden we are expecting a hawkish tilt from governor brainerd? y? peter: normally these speeches are scheduled well in advance. we have been hearing earlier in sanweek people like francisco fed president williams sounding hawkish but the market not responding. so it could be a coincidence, but it is an opportunity for the fed to give a message to the market that is very critical. lael brainard is dovish. something more hawkish, the market will listen. it means janet yellen does not have to give a special interview, which is a little less convenient. it is obviously an opportunity to send a message to the market if they decide to use it. jon: what do we base the assumption on, why they need t