where is jon ferro to help me out here? [laughter] lisa: go to markets. erro get five days off? lisa: you were saying it was good. tom: jon ferro returning sometime in april. michael kushma -- michael kushma, next. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. get gym results at home. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now. ♪knowing the country has the political wherewithal or the will to >> >> do with the country is doing scully -- -- >> is still going to be a long hall to recover that quickly and get inflation higher. >> this could be a shorter but hotter cycle. to really get that acceleration upwards, we need to see earnings show up. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan f

a sight to behold, jon ferro with us after a vaccination. lisa abramowicz sometime today with a vaccination. within all of that is the good news on the pandemic and so much of the world, with the rest of the world really struggling. the philippines, india, and in this show, tokyo has gone on some form of shutdown. jonathan: we spent much of the year so far talking about divergence between the united states and other parts of the world, and to some degree, divergence -- and to some degree , convergence between perhaps europe and the u.s. tom: you see it within the battle over yield and over the earnings that have come out, use of cash. just one example of use of cash, this train more fear in the midwest of the united states -- this train warfare in the united states. jonathan: then we've got the capital return program at procter & gamble that makes the news. many people are still spooked by the price action of last week. to see the data come in the way it did in america and to see the bond market rally the way it did really stimulated a conve

tom: every time we take a haircut, i've got to differ to jon ferro.hy don't you pick it up -- i've got to defer to jon ferro. why don't you pick it up? jonathan: are you throwing shade at me? why did i deserve that? i will be nice. [laughter] you mentioned that abc pull. i think it is so important. here's the bit for me and for a lot of people this morning. 4/10 democrats and 2/10 republicans want a compromise. how important is that, the mood of the country of compromising around spending? greg: if he just goes to reconciliation and doesn't compromise, i think that will hurt him. i think wednesday, the gdp number for the first quarter could be close to 8%. the atlanta fed is at 8.3%. we can't grow at this level without starting to worry about inflation, and that is the one thing i think they are too sanguine about. tom: greg valliere, thank you. jonathan: the u.s. mail somewhat insecure -- the u.s. male somewhat insecure about hair in this country. what is that about? i will bring in the clippers for you. tom: they take it here and here, and they put

jon ferro is off today. he will be back later this week.ill not rip him about taking time off because i think it is very well-deserved, and everybody feels like they need a break after the last 12 months. this is a very interesting moment where hope needs to meet reality, and i think liz ann sonders nailed it when she's that we just don't know if we are setting the bar too high or too low. tom: j.p. morgan kicks off earnings season. then you go to april 28, fed day. i really wonder, where are we 31 days from now? to me it is a complete mystery as corporations reset, and this stock market resets for the expectations of the autumn and into winter. lisa: president biden coming out reportedly on cnn this morning, saying he is setting a target date of april 19 for all adults to be eligible to get vaccinated. we keep bringing the targets up, adding to this optimism, yet there is a key question. it is those projections out that we really have a lack of clarity on. padhraic: -- tom: they begin a messaging campaign, and the message last night was 38

i think jon ferro would agree with me that you are more qualified than any global thought leader, and-- jon ferro has beat the table throughout this entire pandemic that there is a social contract in europe and indeed in boris johnson's united kingdom that is different than america. out of this pandemic, are we shifting to a new social contract where we budget for the have-nots? mark: i think we are, and the starting place is different as well. the starting place is different in europe, different in canada, different in the u.s. but the direction of travel is similar. we have learned through this pandemic that we don't have as resilient economies. individuals have proven resilient, to their great credit, but we haven't had the predictions we need, and i can extend that analogy to health in pandemics over to cyber and other issues where the government needs to play a role. also playing a role in the adjustment of the economy. in the end, the economy needs to move to the future, and the future is sustainable and digital. whereas we have that support, we also need the dynamism to move fo

jon ferro is focused on the short end of the market.jerome powell move the short end of the market? george: good morning, everyone. thanks for having me on. seems like a pretty punchy show this morning. good to liven it up some bond talk. [laughter] powell has already made it very clear what they intend to do. they are not doing anything. they are going to sit tight for as long as they possibly can. jon mentioned it before. market dominance is about expectation. expectations are high for very strong economic outcome. that is pretty much consensus for the most part. expectations are that inflation is going to pop as well. we are going to see pretty strong numbers over the next couple of months for a whole host of reasons. but the question is, when we get to august, september, october, when we are three months out, if the data is still strong, and particular inflation data, what does the fed do? can the fed really hold on? this fed, it started to lead, but it often follows the market. the market tries to push forward . the fed has held it

it was a code of conduct, jon ferro. he ways of cal ripken senior, it would never have happened under the structure. jon: we should light a fire and get the marshmallows out. lisa: you already have. i have a question that will fans boycott? jon: the fans have pushed back against their clubs on this. at the end of the day, will they really pushback? i think matt miller it right. eyeballs will matter here. where the eye polls -- where the eyeballs go will dictate this because that is where the tv money will go. tom: so you think liverpool fans worldwide owned by the americans will rally to watch a fixed 15-team league where liverpool can never be relegated? jon: i think the fans will watch their beloved football clubs, yes, if that is what you're asking me for but that's just my view? what has that been worth? everyone has their own. lisa: literally everybody has a view. i am even weighing in. you know things have gone off the whales -- off the rails. jon: coming up, michael spence. tom: the jerseys are pounding on the wind

alongside tom keene, i'm jon ferro. lisa abramowicz back with us on monday.right now, tina ford and with us. it is can -- tina fordham with us. it is constrained because of our conversation with the vice chairman. we go into this weekend with instabilities in europe, including in eastern ukraine, including here, including their. it is an uneasy time that i would suggest has been underreported. why do we need to focus on the international relations of europe this weekend? tina: there is so much good news, and i have been watching the program this morning. so much genuine basis for the enthusiasm about outperformance, forecasts upgraded, but also an excellent time for opportunists to take advantage of governments staying distracted elsewhere. demobilizing in eastern ukraine is where -- israel. there are so many things happening that would have been front of mine that i would be talking to you -- front of mind that i would be talking to you about regularly that are getting swept under the rug because frankly, we are coming out of this pandemic tunnel. but as you

this is what you want to jon ferro to be talking about in 2021 compared to where we were a year ago. does it get out of control? that is the question. what we know as well is the signal-to-noise ratio over the next six months is going to be extremely low. there is going to be a lot of noise coming through the inflation data rather than a true wage price inflation spiral. we need to be humble to the fact that there is going to be a lot of noise and we are embarking on an experiment that we have not seen before. i tend to agree that i think the broader trend is still intact, the secular disinflationary forces, but we don't know, we have not had this type of experiment before. jonathan: sonal, let me bring you into the conversation. sonal: i would say the last 25 years, absolutely. i will hold my hand up, i have been an inflation hawk and i have been wrong. in the last 25 years, when have we had two years when you have had ddp budget deficits year after year -- gdp budget deficits year after year, $5 trillion already, which has been a sign to this recession. we are talking about close t

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jon: from new york city for our audience curled white -- worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. coming into monday, we declined by nine points, around .2%. it is a no drama market morning. tom: in the last hour, you nailed it where you said is a european week and americans have to sit still and wait for europe to speak. the news to me is europe finally with better pandemic information. jon: the outlook is better because vaccinations have improved. we have had eight straight weeks of gains -- seven straight weeks of gains, i will correct myself. that is phenomenal. the euro is through 1.20. tom: we look at the big banks, i believe apple -- it will be drip, drip, drip coca-cola reaffirming their organic revenue growth at 6%. that is a big number. that would be 4% maybe without powell, fiscal stimulus, this boom economy. jon: first quarter organic revenue, plus 6%. lisa: that is exactly where i was going to go. the estimate

tom: she is just picking it up from jon ferro. i know we talked about singapore and hong kong. do you think it is feasible? you are the only one of us who has actually traveled. jonathan: can we have a system in place, some kind of vaccine passport certificate system in place that every country understands? look at the specific words the eu commission later actually used. she is talking about vaccines accepted in the eu and the u.s.. if you have had the astrazeneca vaccine in europe, can you travel to the u.s.? lisa: there is the question from the health perspective. daniel, just to wrap up with you, how much can the u.s. accelerate without the rest of the world joining? given the fact that we are seeing the acceleration in india and brazil. daniel: the acceleration is going to be broader based. the u.s. is the vanguard here. one of our key messages that europe is not far behind in terms of vaccination. they are working out there supply chain -- their supply chain issues. they will see a nice reopening. it is going to be broader based. the question is, how will it sustain itsel

tom: get vaccinated, folks, like jon ferro. lisa: me today. tom: take someone with you. took vet bill. jonathan: for new york, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. i might walk. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i think we could have an employment and productivity boom and a real change. >> we are looking not just at the peak. we are looking at the sustainability of these trends. >> what we have to question is have things structurally really changed. >> what the bond market is telling you, not so fast. the fed has the upper hand. >> it is clear to me that the fed is not raising rates until the end of 2022, 2023. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a

joe manchin, jon ferro, no accident to a stay as small as west virginia has the same number of senators as california or texas. jonathan: let's make a bipartisan push seems to be the top line. he writes that the time has come to win these political games and usher a new era of bipartisanship. what we have witnessed so far has been anything but. tom: we go to kevin cirilli right now. how alone is he? my guess is that he is not all that alone. kevin: from one joe to the next, he is really the point person when it relates to infrastructure. the triangulation of the power grid here in washington, d.c. comes down to president biden, minority leader mcconnell and senator joe manchin. between the three of those camps, they have been able to release at the goalpost for each of the debates from the stimulus, but as well as from infrastructure. they said maybe they are going to have to pass a hard infrastructure bill. you have an opening bid with a lot of hoopla. tom: did you make that comment with sound on on bloomberg radio? kevin: no, and i geico. tom: they talk about the many mansions. how al

tom: so that is where jon ferro has been. guy: absolutely. as you say, he has been on sabbatical.re what the name of the sabbatical is. tom, thank you very much. fantastic interview. let's take a look at what is happening coming up next. we will be hearing about "balance of power." we also have the cable show coming up. alix: will be kicking that off on dab digital radio. that is coming up at 12:00 in large gash in new york and 5:00 in london. -- in new york and 5:00 in london. coming up is "balance of power," eurasia group president ian bremmer will be joining david westin. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" fo

john barrow insisting i quote d -- jon ferro insisting i quote dow.-- we look for new dow components. lisa: stock split. tom: this is bloomberg on radio, on tv. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels. get gym results at home in just 10 minutes a day. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. get off the floor with aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now. ♪ jonathan: is it friday yet? what a week. from new york city for audience worldwide, go

jon: i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." we kick things off in asia, recording its busiest week since february, despite the increase in volatility out of china. completing one of asia's biggest bond yields of the year. united states pulling off a $13 billion bond sale and see heavy demand in the largest ever offering by a bank. united airlines driving the action in bond, pushing sales to $29 billion, on track for the busiest april on record. back with us, my colleagues, greg davis, priya missouri. i want to say on the high-yield side, so much has been made about the amount of supply and how tight spreads are. barclays have one of the stats of the week so far for the credit market. more than 70% of supply year to date in high-yield has been refinancing. how important has that dynamic been supporting the credit side of the story? mike: it is really important. in terms of the supply dynamic from a negative, meaning companies leveling up to a positive because it actually results in credit improvement because you are lowering you

jon ferro has been pointing out that airline stocks have been down for the last 10 days. if this story was coming through 10 days ago, i would understand it. today i am really struggling with that. alix: i completely agree because you're not seeing such a voracious bond buying. yes, the 10 year drift a little bit lower, but not a ton. that doesn't seem to make any sense if you're going to have a rising global cases. you would think you would buy the dollar as protection. in terms of what is selling off, it is pretty much everything. it got apple's product unveiling, netflix after the bell. not a lot of movement either way. like i mentioned, the 10 year at 1.58%. the bloomberg dollar index continuing to go pretty much nowhere. yet you look at some of the commodities, with the exception of oil, copper still up. now looking at $9,500 a ton. that would signal some kind of reopening, not the global case rise that is instead the dominant narrative, which is why travel stocks should be down. so i am with you. it is confusing. guy: i think we are in one of those days where the na

what i noticed yesterday is the first order for the air tag luggage thing was for jon ferro.hink he looks good in a $400 luggage tag. [laughter] who was apple talking to? they were not doing the iphone. who was apple talking to in this product launch? alex: they make a huge amount of money these days from what they call other product, the things like the apple watch, the homepod. that is a really fast-growing category for them. so another $30, $60 here or there, these products are very lucrative. so i think it is topping out that part of the business. there's not a huge amount of r&d spent up front and not a lot spent on the raw materials. tom: do they have competition? where does apple fit now with what we did 10 years ago, samsung, dell, all the rest of them? or is apple now in a world of their own? alex: i think the thing we are seeing is increasingly, tech companies are expanding. we are seeing apple go into advertising a little bit, google getting into hardware. i think when we get into the world of augmented reality and smart glasses, facebook really sees that as the ne

lisa: i think jon ferro is back to his own property. there was a story about burnout.aybe what we are feeling in the low trading volumes this week. tom: i thought you were talking about john. lisa: [laughter] tom: this is bloomberg. good morning on radio, on television. ♪ ♪ jonathan: another all-time high. from york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. futures up on the s&p 500. we begin with the big issue. cracks emerging in the president's infrastructure push. >> transportation, roads, bridges, airports. >> there is still a lot of question marks. >> may be a third of three chili dollars is infrastructure your -- of $3 trillion is actually infrastructure. >> it will take ages. >> who knows what is going to happen? >> is a question of how you pay for it. >> is less about the height and the tax rate. >> lots of changes to how taxes are done on an international side. >> there is minimum global tax rate in the proposition.

lisa abramowicz and tom keene cured jon ferro prepares to drive forward the conversation at 9:00.ltz with us. i want to go over the debate of what capital gains tax is obscuring. you and i have a collective memory and i want to give a shout out the visualizing economics for a memory of the 1960's, when we had multiple brackets and the top bracket was 70%, 80 percent, almost 90%. are we going back to higher brackets and sustained brackets for the haves? barry: it looks like that. the focus on the 40% number is misdirection. what we have going on is the creation of a brand-new top tier in terms of taxes for the wealthiest 1%. in some ways that is a throwback to the pre-reagan era. tom: is a throwback to the 1960's as well. you and i remember five for one call deals, commercial aircraft leasing deals, where there was a cottage industry to avoid the agony. why won't we see that again? barry: the devil is in the details. it depends on how the tax code is drafted. keep in mind, back in those days all of the crazy tax dodges looked at the existing tax code and said what can we do to hide

tom: do not tell jon ferro. she just nailed it.was the best slide in peter hooper's 55 yesterday on the massive savings of the haves in america. this sets us up for an extraordinary day of bloomberg news. much more of the finance markets. david westin eating our coverage tonight of the president of the united states. before that, earnings with the close comment before that i think there is a fed show at 2:00 p.m. lisa: there is. tom: stay with us. ♪ wanna help kids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. over the next 10 years, comcast is committing $1 billion to reach 50 million low-income americans with the tools and resources they need to be ready for anything. i hope you're ready. 'cause we are. we know how much you count on us... ...and that's why we're here 24/7... ...and on the roa

tom: jon ferro, thank you for joining us.s and i from bloomberg intelligence as we look at microsoft going after one of the software providers. nuance makes smart speech recognition. they will be taken out. it is a small for microsoft, one percent less of the balance sheet. why do they need to do this transaction? >> if you look at it, the pandemic has led to transformation across all sectors, health care being one. if you look at the world today, telehealth will be a big deal. in september microsoft announced a partnership where there teams product can be used by patients and doctors to interact. this other software by nuance would transcribe that conversation, so you do not need to take notes after the discussion, you do not need to send the video. as you're talking it starts typing back the conversation and saves it as a file for you to review. tom: lisa, this will be great. you will turn to the software and go take two aspirin, call me in the morning. lisa: having covered health care in a former life, this would be a game

tom: before we get to jim paulsen and a wonderful conversation on where we are, jon ferro, the salientoint for me wednesday, thursday and friday is we are seeing in earnings reshuffle. joe feldman takes amazon and reaffirms a $4000 price target this morning. jonathan: here's the brief from jonathan golub at credit suisse. just dropped in. 25 point 7% of the s&p market cap is reporting q1 results. earnings have surpassed estimates. 83% of companies topping projections. financials exceeding forecast by 37.4%. the rest of the market is beating by 13.4%. early decent q1. the individual that has pushed this story forward on the sell side has been mike wilson of morgan stanley. might not have moved is headline number for year-end on s&p, but where he has pulled back his on things like the small caps, talking about execution risk. execution risk after raising the bar, focused on input costs and the ability to actually meet demand a bigger way. lisa: the change to me is how long the cycle can run. i think that's where mike wilson has really shown a real brilliance. the idea of it runs hot, hot

[laughter] tom k: jon ferro, that's why i'm the nice guy with clarida and jon is not. : i think tom knows what is coming in about 30 minutes. tom k: i am going to ask sweetheart questions to my good friend richard clarida to. then ferro in between. [laughter] tom p: jonathan, give him heck. i wouldn't let him get away with just saying we want further progress on labor without finding that. in fairness, maybe it is a little bit too early. maybe they do want to talk about it in broad strokes. but i think pressing him a bit on that, maybe that is the answer. if that is what you are so used to telling us, that you are not ready to define it yet, just give us something. but my sense is that the way that powell has been talking about this, how many times has he said there's 10 million people on the sidelines? well, now it is 9 million people. my sense is that is probably one of the guideposts, one of the lines in the sand. i think they want some, if not all of those folks back. but i just want some clarity on that, and i think that is totally reasonable. but i am some patheti

jon ferro, it is a boom economy, and we are seeing boom earnings.onathan: we are seeing boom numbers out of the investment banks. let's talk about where we see similarities between the likes of wells fargo and jp morgan. from jamie dimon, he talks about loan growth being challenged. for the year ahead, what does that mean? does banks have that in common. i imagine the whole sector. -- those banks have that uncommon. i imagine the whole sector does. we face a boom economy in america. tom: in the real yield at -0.70%. forget how odd it is to work in the millieu of a negative inflation yield. jonathan: these banks had a lovely right off the back of hide yields and steeper curves. i wonder what that means for the market. i want to touch on this. execution. but goldman sachs just did in the first quarter was just brilliant execution, far better than many people expected. let's pick up a nice example of the last couple of weeks. when we talked about archegos, who was holding the bag? not goldman. credit suisse was. that is a tremendous quarter, a tremendo

alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jon ferro. tom keene back with us on monday. friday morning, shaping up as follows. a taste of the equity market that has been ripping higher over the last few months. we are down 0.5%. the call of the morning, jonathan golub at credit suisse and the team, 4600 on the s&p 500, boosting their price target from 4300. i keep going back over the numbers. another 9.2% upside to the call from current levels for the team at credit suisse. lisa: 22% gain in the s&p 500 would be the implication here. i am just taking about how people thought that 2020 was peek year -- was peak year for markets given the fire of cash from the government. it seems like that is actually accelerating with that $4.1 trillion plan by joe biden. the question is, how much will actually get into the market? jonathan: and will they upgrade their earnings forecasts, too? to lisa's point, i think this is what we are all grappling with going into the year ahead. what can actually get done in washington, d.c. right now? all of the big numbers we have heard about comer

ferro off today. he will return sometime, i'm told, in the vicinity of the end of the week. lisa: the delay is getting longer between jon that's how the brain goes. i'm sorry. we have to look at the real yield. we do that through the week. -0.66. a major bench for the financial system as the real yield will elevate, move less negative back towards zero, and maybe back towards, heaven for. , a -- heaven forbid, positive for cystic -- positive statistic. alison williams joins us now with bloomberg intelligence. what is so wonderful is not only the grizzled view of the u.s. banking system, but also those in europe who tried to participate in america and defend the franchises in europe. thank you so much for joining. i am just going to cut to the basic question i have that remains unanswered. credit suisse to be put out of their misery, how did they end what has been years and years of sorta kinda like? do you see them as a combination candidate? alison: well, everyone is a combination candidate, especially in europe, although i think cross-border, it is perhaps -- in any case, the question with the swiss banks, regardless

jon: from new york city this morning, i'm jonathan ferro. loomberg radio and tv through the next couple hours, on "bloomberg surveillance," the focus, cpi in america. the print is two hours away. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: for our audience -- jon: for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." s&p 500 futures, positive. the nasdaq had a bit of a rough time over the last couple days. down around 13 points, no drama. russell outperforming by little more than .1% after peaking in the middle of march. we pulled back by five percentage points since then, which into the bond market, that cyclical effort has stalled. 1.7 year -- 1.74 is where we peaked. right now, yields are up by a couple basis points. i think we get $24 billion of 30 year debt later as lisa indicated earlier in the program. a big conversation about inflation. what has happened to gold this year? inflation, inflation, cpi higher, higher, supply chain bottlenecks. gold on the year, down nine percentage points. bitcoin, record high, up 116% year to date. bank of americ

jon: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures totally unchanged. dreaming a reopening is easier than actually doing it. execution risk is front and center. tom: you're going to talk tesla and microsoft again today. it really is a boom economy. palladium out to a record high. some of these commodities go away. we are on 10,000 watch on copper. there is some interesting supply-demand constraints within this boom economy. jonathan: demand is good. can supply meet it? it could be a big issue for auto manufacturers. this will be the story for the weeks and months to come. a lot of people focused on that. can we meet those expectations with supply? tom: we are going to see commodities pop into the inflation watch. what i would say is on a tuesday, it is a stew of information. we are trying to get some clarity. jonathan: here is some clarity from ubs, the estimate is 173. it is one more bead in a big line of beads. lisa: markets are shrugging off all of those. the fact that they sidestepped the chip shortage issues, people are struggling. the expectation

jon: from new york city for our audience worldwide, live on bloomberg television alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro futures positive by .2% following the biggest one-day loss that went back to march. welcome back to a tax proposal potentially in breaking news from the team and d.c. at bloomberg. the nasdaq up .2%, on the russell, by .3%. what a 12 months it has been. i talked about projections earlier this morning. last year in june, looking to the end of 21, the federal reserve was looking for unemployment around 6.5%. the latest rejection, they're looking for 4.5% at the end of this year. that is a massive change. get to the bond market. talking about the relevance of this -- i have talked about the relevance of million times saying looking at the data relative to the markets. right now, 1.5454. we have the resets. huge surprises over the last 12 months, the reality that the policy out of d.c. has been effective and put a fall in this economy. where do we go now? yields higher, three straight weeks of gains, heading lower, even as we see better days. tom: the key thing is you're phrase three week