jon ferro is on assignment. do we see him on monday? lisa: tuesday. monday, we just went over that. it is a holiday. tom: we will have jon ferro with us on tuesday. that is a beautiful thing. we will talk about the equity market. if you are in any form of equity investments, what we will do is, right now in new york, a look at the markets with kailey leinz. kailey: futures have been fluctuating between losses. nasdaq futures are lagging behind due to a few individual names appeared in the bond market, 10 year yield, to basis points lower. the russian ruble catches my eye after the russian central bank cut rates for the third time in just over a month from 13% to 11%. trying to rein in the strength of the ruble that has gone from strength to strength during the course of the war in ukraine. the ruble right around 62.74. as far a few of the individuals i was talking about creating a drag on the broader market, apple is one. down 1.4%. they will keep production flat this year for iphones, they are dealing with supply-side challenges. a chip maker also de

jon ferro is on assignment.ht now, we've got a lot of things to speak of in a one hour conversation. john kerry, your special climate envoy and former u.s. secretary of state and whatever your politics, he is someone who has honed our political debate of this nation for decades. you were up at st. paul's in concord, new hampshire a few years back. debate and discussion was eaten into you, wasn't it? >> we had a terrific tradition of back-and-forth, socratic. tom: it was a really important tradition back then. what happened to america where we walked away from the niceties of debate? >> the united states senate used to be the greatest deliberative body in the world. and obviously a lot of people are anxious about where the deliberation is today. it has changed. it's really changed. in the 1990's our politics change. it became far angrier, far more intense, far more personal. you remember the discussions of politics of personal destruction. now we have a lot of angry people who are appropriately angry on either si

jon ferro on assignment.eone just emailed in and said can we use the goats in the nielsen survey. we will see. right now a data check. two days of quiescent markets. lisa: yesterday we saw a bit of a reprieve. tom: oil back a little bit. turkish lira to 16. huge symbolism for mr. erdogan. that's a nice break through it's been managed at a 16 level. we have weaker turkish lira today in the jumble known as turkish politics. which is nothing like the jumble of irish politics. here's how bad it is for you. i'm going to call you prime minister because my mother would insist i do. >> deputy prime minister. tom: here's how bad it is for you on twitter. why were you corrected on twitter so abruptly? you were out on twitter saying i was not aware of that, i stand corrected, because they were counting protestants and catholics. your nations politics right now is an absolute turmoil. >> i don't think that's the case. we have a very stable government that has been in office for over two years and will be for another two

jon ferro, jonathan golub really has drunk the kool-aid.e edge of tom galvin here with a self centric view. jonathan f.: i will try to be polite here. ecfc. has that ever been a leading indicator for anything? jonathan g.: you have to use some framework to say directionally where do we think the economy is going. if you are looking at where inflation is going, you could look at the tips market. if you are looking at where gdp is, there is no tradable instrument on your bloomberg. you have no choice but to use either your own economists, and our economists are pretty bullish, or you can say where is the whole gang thinking the growth will be and that is what you find on the terminal. not only can you do it but i could see it here and say what are the biggest shops, what are people defending? they are all on the same direction, the underlying economic growth measured in nominal dollars, including inflation, will be strong. here's the most important thing, and really strong next year as well. jonathan f.: i'm with you. jonathan g.: that is gol

jon ferro says it does not matter. the yield is up a little bit. dollar comes and weaker. i got brent crude near $113. west texas intermediate, $111. this is to me the most interesting guest of the day. we've got lots of good guests, great guests like joe stiglitz on globalization, but interesting is the bond market. this is lisa's wheelhouse. i'll begin and she will take over. matt brill joins us out of north america, investment grade credit at invesco. i look at the bloomberg total return investment grade index, and i want to know how do i begin to make money back? how do i begin to recover from those double-digit losses? matt: good morning, tom. wish i was with you there. it looks great. you are down roughly 13%, the worse start to a year. it would be the worst year if it ended today. we are seeing some stabilization now. we're starting to see negative correlation between treasury yields and credit spreads for the first time all year. that is a good thing. we are starting to see investors come in. you are looking at 12 your highs on the investment grade yields, so the v

john -- jon ferro is off this week.d in, which is difficult because every photo on the marriott website is of clear, sunny skies. lisa: it's true. tom: there chief executive officer. how many hotels is it? anthony: a little over 8000. tom: tony capuano with us this morning. the wage war. eight dollars an hour, $10 an hour, $22 an hour. we will speak to brian moynihan, a couple of hours out. what are you and your franchise is doing about the wage war? anthony: our total vacant positions of about 8000 is almost exactly what our steady run rate was re-pandemic. the difference is pre-pandemic, they were relatively evenly distributed. now they are concentrated in the markets that have recovered most quickly. obviously we need to be competitive on wage. we've got to identify folks that want hospitality as a career. one in five jobs that were lost came out of travel and tourism. lisa: do you get the sense that there is a bigger pool of applicants for each job? that the labor market is starting to get a little easier? anthony:

jon ferro is off because he does not want to have to deal with our english breakfast references today and he will come back on tuesday and tell us all of the things we got wrong i'm sure. we are countdown to the consumer in the united states and we will get to spending data hair in about half -- data here and have in our time there and i wonder what this will show if it confirms bank of america view of the strength of the consumer. tom: the consumer is a huge question here. what i would say, and i will go to a comment made by the great environmentalist and economist of london school of economics, this entire week we have had, people are puzzled and you are right, in that they are no more puzzled over the consumer than anything else. puzzled. lisa: i think that's the biggest take away from davo's this year, where we just came from, that there was so much bearishness that somehow that was the consensus and that is perhaps the optimism you see today. possibly the first weekly gain going back in two weeks. tom: and bond market, we make jokes about the seven-year auction but it is reaffirm

jon ferro, a better jonathan: jonathan: take this morning. jonathan:jonathan: this morning but not on the wii, seven weeks of losses. on the session up by about 1% and the question i keep hearing us repeatedly, have we seen the capitulation? tom: no. jonathan: we'll capitulation is fed capitulation. it is a systemic event, unappointed rising. that is what is required first. tom: an important reading for the weekend, what is so important is that is linking in the economics for the market performance but even looking at the market, we cannot talk about capitulation with the vix at 28.62, we are miles away. jonathan: people are waiting for something north of 30 approaching 40. this week, people were spooked about the target numbers. because it was surprising but because the market was so surprised by them. this in terms of the reaction, to see stocks down 25% because of that, up of the back of a store we all thought we understood and also thought was increasingly well priced, i think that was a shock for some people to find out that maybe it was

jon ferro, it is all hinged on the used cars going from 37% inflation to 14% inflation. that is good news? jonathan: for many people, pick inflation may already be the view that is the consensus. we will find out. it is about the details. headline inflation has peaked but core inflation will fall with more of a plateau. one view from the south side going into this one. tom: morgan stanley joining us in the last hour. they are looking for inflation to come back but it is not transitory. jonathan: they are looking for an equity market that struggles. the price target at morgan stanley, 3900 is basically where we are. in between now and then next year, they are looking for an overshoot to the downside. tom: you wonder where president biden is next year. again, the president speaks. lisa: trying to get ahead of the message on inflation as he says this is the main issue heading into the midterm election. how much does this recent policy as people start to worry about the consequences of pandemic era spending as well as how the u.s. deals with international issues affecting su

next week, thankfully, jon ferro returns to this chair. this was bloomberg real yield. this is bloomberg. mark: i am mark crumpton with first word news. police in texas did not try to break down the classroom door were 19 children were killed because they believed the gun was barricade -- gunman was barricaded alone and no one was at risk. the texas department of public safety said that was the wrong decision. >> for the benefit of hindsight,

she breaks the rules paired we are here for one day, we hope to be back soon with jon ferro. ad to test out the pharaoh breakfast -- ferro breakfast. do they eat this every day? lisa: my observation, the exile a different color. the toast comes on shelves. a little rack. tom: on radio, this is a full english breakfast, 42 pounds or whatever. igo counterclockwise, we do not have the hour. the most important thing, everything has to be mushy go she. the mushrooms are moshe go she, the tomatoes are mushy gushy. lisa: a piece of toast on a shelf. really delicious. tom: the typical surveillance breakfast is tang and a pop tart. some of our contestants stay at the med hotel, in london. markets, a good week for equities. the vix, under 28, 27.17. oil, brent moving up 117. stay with us, stephen major next on yields. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance" from queen victoria street in london. help me with the data check. futures up 12. dow futures up 35. vix, the 30 level drifting away. lisa: it will be the first weekly gain if it holds going back eight weeks. the stabilit

jon ferro fell off his chair over the weekend.re was a small football match of manchester united. one of our team members and their offspring featured on nbc. well-behaved children, scarred for life by the support of manchester united. it is just harmful. jonathan: i cannot believe joe has made his kids manchester united fans. tom: they converse daily with -- o'neill. bring the photo up again. all you need to know, as usual, the younger offspring is more trouble. jonathan: joel has been a floor manager for some time. tom: these kids are caa called. they are destined. jonathan: thanks for that, tom. tom: good to see that. jonathan: very good to see. tom: john, i am going to look at this historic day and apple says it all. there are so many different stories across the market coverage to make one blanket simply sick statement about the markets and where we are with the central bank is off the mark. jonathan: the federal reserve has to come through with a massive move. they are set to do qt as well. we have vanishing reduction lead r

jon ferro needs to get on the pennsylvania railroad and go out to altoona and horseshoe bend, which isn absolute miracle of where you train turns around in a circle. it also describes the republican party this election day in pennsylvania. how much of a bend does the republican party screwed up in pennsylvania -- party skirt up in pennsylvania? emily: there are a number of races happening across the country. you had donald trump come back men that oz -- back memet oz, the famous tv doctor. now we have seen a late surge by candidate kathy barnett, a far right candidate, even further to the right of the candidate that trump-endorsed. she is black, she's a woman, and she's gaining a lot of momentum. i think this is a race a lot of people are looking at to see the power of trump's endorsement, does his candidate win, does oz win, but if he doesn't win, is it this further right candidate? if so, what does that mean for the future of the republican party? democrats are also putting up their own candidates. this will be competitive not just today, but again in november. . tom: the playbook he

jon ferro is on assignment.a: are seeing the greatest mentions of deglobalization in more than a decade. they are trying to change where they have their supply chain, make them more local. my hairspray is not resilient. tom: the swiss wind. lisa: this is going to be one of the key questions. how do you rearrange supply chains in a world where we are suddenly more dependent than ever on one another? what happens if suddenly we can't get chips from taiwan? tom: the chips are front and center. right now we are going to rip up the script with win thin at brown brothers harriman. from his native burma, he is someone viscerally entwined with the pacific rim. thank you so much for joining. robert d kaplan talks about the south china sea and he walks around it in a circle chapter by chapter. he talks about the change in china. what does president biden need to do economically, politically to restore america's relationship with the pacific rim? >> thanks for having me. it's always a pleasure to be here with you two and a

jon ferro is off. we are broadcasting live as people empty out. the gloom is lifting and we are about to get a read on the labor market that is presenting a real conundrum for people looking for gloom. tom: you are dead on. there's been a lot of crosscurrents here. all of it comes back to the labor market and the weekly data of claims is critical. lisa: i think it is what people are looking at a time when they are trying to figure out if people are exuding the labor market, whether it still has a tightness that it once did, and we are getting a series of possibly brighter forecasts from retailers like macy's where people are still spending. how do you cross tale that into all of the negativity here in davos and beyond? tom: could you talk? my throat is gone because of the fondue last night. it was just too much. lisa: what was it again, val vita -- again, the lita -- again,velveeta? [laughter] we have a big crew helping us make this happen and bring the interviews. this has been a really interesting davos with respect to how gloomy people are abou

those of a certain vintage, jon ferro may room ember this, was 40 years ago tomorrow.oing to be distracted by the fed tomorrow. but it was 40 years ago tomorrow that our modern invincibility of war was taken away by a missile in the falkland islands. it was the hms sheffield, which speaks to the modern moment of the muskva in the black sea a number of days ago. maria tadeo joins us this morning. i will never forget the sobering moment 40 years ago tomorrow of the sheffield sinking. just absolutely extraordinary. help us with the next unexpected in ukraine. what are you studying? maria: first of all, i think there's a lot of nervousness around that three-day parade. for vladimir putin, we talk about how he needs to show something to his people and needs a clear victory somewhere, perhaps in eastern europe, the donbass and crimea. but i think it goes beyond that. this could really be a moment when vladimir putin speaks to the russian people and says at this point it is not just a special military operation, this is full on war with ukraine, but also the west. tom: i don'

tom: behind him, i will not mince words, and i wish jon ferro was here to help us, it is an exhaustedme minister of the united kingdom. lisa: well said. tom: if you are not up on the story, it is called partygate. if you are not up on the reality, i don't understand it, but i can suggest the prime minister in the united kingdom looks exhausted. lisa: this is all about holding a party when everybody else was in lockdown, not able to see their families during the holiday and how they deal with that. it seems like he's very much in a beleaguered state. tom: we get to rip up script with amrita sen, truly excellent on the microeconomics of what crude will do. in your studies, do windfall profit taxes work? amrita: no, and especially not when you are asking oil producers to also raise production because there's a bit of a supply crunch. so the answer is no. tom: go back to lyndon baines johnson and the idea of an investment tax credit. sunak is going to fold in here if you invest, you don't pay enough tax. what kind of investment program spurs oil production? amrita: the problem right now i

courage to stay with us through the morning, including the open coming up on bloomberg television with jon ferromohamed el-erian is in the building and i wore my new york jets bowtie. i don't know if he will speak to me. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: what a week in this market. equity features of 1.4%. it will it stick? the countdown to the open starts now. >> this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york city, we begin with a big i

jon ferro in treatment for his next property.right now with the clearest note of the morning is tom tzitzouris, head of fi research at strategas. i love the clarity of your note biden, powell, and yellen has a easy lifting down to a 5% inflation rate, but then. is that really going to be the topic today on the couches in the oval office? thomas: i think so. the biden administration has a real problem here. they've got to get inflation down to a more comfortable 3%, but the problem with that is giving it down to 5% is pretty easy. it is seasonality, base effects. tightening will get us down about 4%, but getting down to 3% is probably going to into the recession -- probably going to engineer a recession. tom: are the phd's at the eccles building looking at reaction functions of differential calculus of the how to go from 5% to 3% inflation? thomas: i think they are come up with the question is do they over tighten along the way. if you look at the past history, eventually something broke for they actually got to their model driven

tom: jon ferro mentioned citigroup with a more strident view on rate rises and many other shops as wella central bank where the facts will change and jerome powell will blink? seth: i don't know about blink, but i have to say jay powell is in a very challenging situation because what they are trying to do is slow this economy a lot, but not too much, and neither of those is particularly well defined. they are trying to bring the growth rate of the economy down enough so that the inflationary pressure we are seeing outside of some of these temporary phenomena, they want that to come down by slowing the economy enough that it goes away, but not so much that they dip things into recession get that is such a terribly difficult job to do. lisa: your former boss, the former fed chair ben bernanke, put it is almost a certainty heading into stagflation, and had some pretty harsh words for this fed chair come over the past they have taken in not getting ahead of this. do you think that almost certainly we are headed towards a stagflationary like environment in the united states? seth: very hard

what guy johnson and jon ferro from england, to the two of you, i have never seen. we have 25 and 50 bps move, including catherine mann, and i'm looking at growth forecasts that are resoundingly difficult. bank of england next year goes from a 1.25 down to 0.25% growth. i have never seen a rate hike like this into those forecasts ever. jonathan: catherine mann can speak for herself, but i think overwhelmingly there is consensus that this bank of england is worried about decelerating growth in the british economy. that is why i ask how much distance is there between the so-called hawks and the so-called doves on the mpc at the moment. because i'm not convinced that saunders for a 50 basis point call today, the ultimately they want to take it much further beyond that because of what is happening with growth. guy: but the danger is that if inflation becomes un-anchored, that's going to be an even bigger threat to growth. the bank of england finds itself in probably the most difficult position amongst the major central banks at the moment. it does have this deceleration

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and leasta abramowicz. jonod morning. this is bloomberg live t.k. is taking the day off to watch the darby. carnage out there, lisa. it gets worse. lisa: this is a growth concern more than a rate concern. and you're seeing this because as you get carnage, a bit of a haven trade. jon: the yield is down. i was talking about the carnage in the past 24 hours. netflix year to date down 72% and facebook down 34% and tesla down 30% and microsoft down 23% and google down 22%. apple down by 18% and in the premark for some names it gets worse not better. lisa: i saw on twitter, the size and scope, most ever since 2008. is it 2008? it hasn't felt quite like that but perhaps 2000. 2002. when you get certain names that fall out of bed completely and there's a repricing within specific parts of the mark. we've not seen a wholesale financial market collapse as of yet. the question is are the risks building slowly as you get a max exodus. jon: the theme to build on is the wealth destruction we're seeing through those names thr

ferro. futures of the .8% after the pain of yesterday. tom: the pain of yesterday and 2022, as we mentioned, jon, you are looking for the hope and prayer of bloom to script bloom destruction. jonathan: hsbc not buying it. they are firmly risk-off. they think it is coming in the next three to six months. tom: i get a bunch of notes yesterday tearing the strategists apart. when the facts change, i change. that is what is going on right now. people are readjusting. i would suggest the first step is to wait for the catharsis, and a lot of people saying we really have not seen the agony yet. jonathan: i have been surprised by how few on the south side have adjusted. lisa abramowicz putting out the note, we stay pro-risk and underweight in bonds and cash. have been wrong over the last 12 months. lisa: can you be surprised? he is sort of a separate category of wall street will end going to come out and reaffirm what angle you are going to take? the story is becoming nuanced, and i think goldman sachs is -- david kostin said basically, even if you do get some avoidance of recession you are still going to get a downside in stocks. that seems to be