kailey leinz in for jon ferro.ould suggest what we have seen here today in the last couple days is flows and a lot of doubt about the persistency of the flows into equities. paul: and you've seen that in -- kailey: and you've seen the and the bank of america data put together. global can be funds fuld in through august 10 was the cpi day. $11.7 billion for the flows into bonds as well. 4.3 billion dollars polled out of cash. if you are triple leveraged all-cash, seems like you might be the only one because a lot of people are putting money to work. tom: i would say that is right, it is a lonely position. drew matus joins us to sort this out. he is the chief market strategist at metlife but that barely describes what he and maury harris did at ubs years ago and the depths of the great financial crisis -- in the depths of the great financial crisis where they suggested the american economy would pieced together and would be resilient and move forward over the coming decade. i look at the moment we are in right now an

kailey leinz in for jon ferro today.ow, gas under four dollars a gallon, there is no one in america who writes a more detailed report across hydrocarbons then stephen short. he is principal of the short group and his report is absolutely definitive. let me go to one sentence of your report. new york harbor has the lowest inventory of hydrocarbons in a decade. why is that? >> it is the lack of refinery capacity. i'm in philadelphia, 13 miles down the road from office. we used to produce enough gasoline each day to provide more than -- that was a key supplier. why is new york harbor so important? we certainly have the ingredients. tom: that is a window, schork is a genius on the details of supply and flow. what you see in your madness about demand? stephen: right now it is to keep lower oil prices. we're looking at demand destruction year-over-year, more than 400,000 barrels lower a-day, 5%. we look at demand relative to seasonal norms, we looking at demand destruction that is nearly 200,000 barrels a day, 2% below normal.

. >> i'm in for jon ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene.were talking about the dollar, it is in a delightful churn. i would note that a stronger yen. lisa: how much of this is the optimism that we are getting to peak inflation, earnings coming in better than expected, dull weakness giving a lift with some of the risk judgment. tom: and the bloomberg index showing more accommodation, less stress on the system. claudia writes about the stresses within the political economy. a former focus economist, always interesting even if you don't agree with her. a writer published yesterday with colleagues from dartmouth and he said, down, labor economy is not hot, hot, hot. wages are not hot, hot, hot. you say that may be right, but worriers may be right as well and there may be a middle ground and we need time. you want to go out the x axis. how much time do we need? claudia: that is the big question. we are seeing a disruptive economy begin to heal. that is an important interpretation of the jobs report that we saw last week. we have a lot of hiring,

jon ferro on assignment. a friday to go into the weekend reading.will be more than interesting on what the equity markets will do. futures up 14. dow futures up 105. still extraordinary given the move from june. two-year yield, 2.31%. less curve inversion than pre-cpi. -34 basis points. moving it from a greatly inverted -49 basis points. brent crude, 98.45. on the individual equity stocks, lisa pulled an all-nighter to give us. lisa: analyzing rivian and electric vehicles. rivian is fascinating. their shares are lower by .2%. they beat expectations with a forecasted bigger than a speck that loss. they have not gotten production up to speed to meet all the demand. they had people making orders two years in advance. in the meantime the costs are going up of raw materials they use for all these goods. how do they deal with that without going back to a lot of these individuals and saying give us more money? that is not what they want to be doing. jessica alba's company reported a worse than expected earnings, but also a bigger than a bigger than effecti

if jon ferro were here he would say how any people delay survey, why have i never been surveyed, and we would question if this is just a signal. 12:00 usda world agricultural supply demand report will be fascinating at a time we just saw food prices surge the most since 1979. that was one of the biggest takeaways from the cpi report. what are the supplies going to look like? this goes to the weather disruptions we have seen in europe, but also in the united states, this has been try and how much does that creep production of wheat and soybeans. saudi aramco will be reporting earnings, reports it will perhaps double its profits in the wake of what we are seeing in oil prices. what we get in terms of an issue with respect to the oversupply that opec is talking about. we see that in the earnings or the guidance for saudi aramco? tom: i see it for oil but it will also move over to natural gas, which is mislabeled, it should simply be called methane. natural gas is front and center. a huge amount of noise out of the war in ukraine. the u.s. surge in energy one is a shock. lisa: and it com

this is bloomberg. >> this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jonm new york, we begin with the big issue. >> you're going to see more headwind. europe is going to face some very strong headwind. >> the data are not great. >> the data was disaoiin

lisa: at the risk of getting some anger from my cohost jon ferro here, is good news going to be bad news markets, considering that a lot of people are hoping for the fed to back off? sarah: i think so much of this is going to come down to the composition. unlike, i think, some of the asset reports, it is not about one number. i think it is going to be that intersection of the wage dynamic, risk participation, with the overall payroll numbers and unemployment rate. an ideal situation for the fed might be that participation rate coming back, and wage growth cooling. again, you are getting help from the supply side, so that is the easier way out for the fed, which is going to limit how much the fed will ultimately have to raise rates. i think if you can put up some strong job numbers, maybe on the headlines, if you are seeing that participation rate come back i think that could be taken as a pretty good report. jonathan: for the record, i don't get angry, lisa. not with you, ever. tom: with me. jonathan: sometimes, tom. looking ahead to cpi, what are you looking for on that particular data

jon ferro, we are unsure where he is going to be tomorrow.is stuck at the naples airport, but we have kailey leinz in today, at least right now. i do want to mention something we have been remiss on the last 90 minutes, and that is dollar dynamics with acute resiliency to the dollar in the jobs report . the turkish lira holding at 18 per dollar, 17.96. i think that was enough of an aggregate. >> can i offer up a little bit of a backtrack? that is going to be stuck all the. we have the privilege of having kailey with us for the whole week unless she runs away. >>>> i thought he was out for one day. lisa: american holiday. he is european. let's take a look at some of these stocks. it is merger monday, which is fascinating, because it hasn't been merger monday for quite a while. you can see signify shares popping more than 60% ahead of the open, a little change, down about a quarter of a percent. and really, the emerson story is that whirlpool is going to buy this company. the story is that tom keene has a garbage disposal unit in his apartment

jon: with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.s is bloomberg. ♪ millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network and most recommended wireless carrier. that's a whole lot of happy campers out there. and it's never too late to join them. get $450 off any new purchase of an eligible samsung device with xfinity mobile. or add a line to your plan today at xfinitymobile.com jon: losses on the s&p 500, small losses. i'd cant even know if you would call them that. features -0.02%, on the nasdaq down 0.05 percent. energy equities making a comeback, crude back through 100 as tom mentioned on brent. close to 95, pushing those levels into the 90's again on wti. here's the bond market story, focus on the front end of the yield curve into jackson hole, wyoming and the chairman powell speech. in and around 330, yields unchanged today. what kind of tenure response for incoming data? the

kailey leinz in for jon ferro. talked to him yesterday, stuck in rome off of the train from naples. he is trying to get back home. he is coming out of fco and it looks to be a struggle. let's get to it on inflation. your observation to 8:30 this morning? lisa: it will be about the headline cpi number, about the course to get numbers, and the readthrough to the real economy, real wages, which we also get at 8:30 a.m. how negative two they go -- do they go? most negative on the margins with disposable income of operating. tom: i agree with you. real wages underplayed and important. i like what alan ruskin says at deutsche bank. we will give you the research done in the last 12 hours which is what surveillance does and he has december cpi above 4%. thank you for bringing this to my attention, bank of america with four glide past, we have inflation back in the second quarter. lisa: this is the issue any raise this many times, and your right to do that. at what point does the fed signal we are done or we can start movin

tom: i want to start a conversation with jon ferro. 12 months in equity not as bad as the gloom out therear market, -20%. you made an observation that a bowl, like our next guest, on the same page as a somewhat there like michael. jonathan: they want the central bank to get control of inflation and get out of the way. most people have agreed for a long time they don't want a fed to have the presence they have of this market. a speech from a federal reserve chair. it tells you how much this market is still dependent on the federal reserve. bears, bulls and every participant agrees they want to get away from this world. tom: kathy jones, publishing moments ago with charles schwab, she says it was not the gettysburg. did you have to memorize the gettysburg address in school? jonathan: different education, different country. we learned a little about lincoln. they called it the anti-private speech. i like that. let's get with bramo. lisa: good morning. we were talking about june and where we are in the equity market, the s&p is still 10% higher. the nasdaq 14% higher, a gain of 14% since june

we are helping jon ferro. >> we need to give you a weather service. >> eight or nine degrees celsius.us. >> that with the temperature is four degrees celsius. excess particular access wyoming. >> it is close there. >> i can't believe you're anywhere near. >> to ours in 10 minutes. >> we have three klutzy. >> let me introduce you to the set. >> to the cameraman. >> eastern time. his eastern time, 10 a.m. eastern. you will hear from the chairman. >> wheezed have will kennedy. it is not funny, in europe right now. on energy prices. it is a moonshot to the sky, and we all know, prices always break. how or what or when to these parabolic moves in germany, france, england, how do they break? >> it's difficult to say. i would start by saying they continue to go skywards. about 1000 euros, for the first time, and that's well over 10 times what it was a complete change. several hundred dollars a barrel. more than $500 a barrel. in oil terms, and must break eventually, because people cannot of were to pay these prices we are seeing people shot factories and fertilizer plants. aluminum plants, a

i look at jon ferro and john wayne, but wayne wore the resistol.athan: i'm looking at the price, $495. tom: jon, i think this says you and a more urban kind of way. jonathan: do you know what the kids are wearing out? a prada bucket hat. kailey: just by the knock off on amazon. amazon. tom: if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity. >> asked inflation is easing, it is giving the fed more wiggle room. >> i think on the inflation front, the key is the divergence between headline and core inflation. >> even though inflation may have peaked, i think the market is discounting that the shed sticks tell -- fed sticks the landing. >> i think they are going to have more than is priced in. >> i don't think it is the base case. >> this is

this is bloomberg, the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jon: live from new

ferro, lisa abramowicz. tom: the last day of august, the beginning of september. turmoil in the equity markets. greater turmoil in the foreign exchange markets. jonu to understand, -- nothing gold can stay. we quote robert frost. lisa: i was hoping that you would throw to jonathan, not me. we had a debate over the break, but am excited for winter. tom: are the markets excited for winter? this is a term all time for the fed. jonathan: we have wiped out the gains from august. down 5% on the s&p. don't fight the fed seems to be the message right now. yesterday we found out good news is bad news. consumer confidence, decent. that means the fed has more work to do. tom: the gentlelady from cleveland with more guidance, data dependency, and the rest. it is a certitude among fed officials that inflation will not pull back. jonathan: the race to what? they are talking about a four handle. lisa: she sees unemployment above 4% by years end. this is the dual mandate that becomes more difficult. the market is still not pricing that in. they are getting up to 3.9% if you look at the fed funds future market. then there is still the expectation for rate cuts. t