"wall street journal" senior writer jon hilsenrath says this: if the u.s. s a very strange one, and we bring jon in now. jon, why is it so weird to you? >> well, i'll tell you exactly what's so weird. it looks like the economy contracted in the first half of the year. gdp contracted, gross domestic product, total output of goods and services, contracted in the first quarter. a lot of the estimates show it contracted in the second quarter too, and then today we had a blockbuster jobs number with an unemployment report 3.6%, another 300 plus thousand jobs created. that's the weird part. how do you have a contracting economy creating a lot of jobs, and that's what i explain in the story. lauren: you call it a jobs downturn. maybe we can get a soft landing here. i'll element you weigh in on that, but you look at the fed funds futures, reading the tea leaves, we did hear from three fed presidents today including two hawks, waller and bull articled, and they say there's a 31% chance they go 75 points again in september. can we handle that economically speaking? >>

joan is now is jon hilsenrath global economics editor at the wall street journal. tor. sir jon and i want to start with your umbrella assessment of the economy. so is the economy good? or is it not? >> well, what i would say is the economy is at a turning point right now. so, inflation has been eating into household paychecks. at the same time households are sitting on a lot of cash between the relief projects that they got during the pandemic and not going out to restaurants and traveling part american households start up a lot of money, $18 trillion in fact. and checking accounts and savings accounts. they were in a pretty good position to the inflation shock hit for another single way to second period the paycheck and bringing home every week is melting away. i think we are at the turning point where american households folded up or keep on spending are going to find out of the next six -- eight weeks or so. arthel: how much of the war in ukraine and a looming uncertainty in china tipping the scales of the american economy? and how can the u.s. bounce the economy