jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, chairman powell heading towards july 31 teeing up rate cuts. as the data from the u.s. looks resilient and europe showing signs of life, fueling a bit of a backup in core government bond markets. let's begin with the big issue. are there cracks appearing in the everything rally? >> we have really seen a strong rally. >> rally. >> rally. >> the entire market rally so far has been discounting what the central banks are doing. >> the fed that is reacting to a downshift in the sentiment. >> the one thing that has not rallied in this everything rally are long dated bond prices. >> investors have been positioning for continued divergence in that correlation. >> yields are much higher than they were 48 hours ago. >> we have had some better data recently. >> inflation data did see a reversal of some of the weakness. >> the fed has gotten dovish. >> it is not just the fed. >> the ecb remains on this dovish stance. >> it's a pretty positive en

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, confusion reigns following the final fed tweak before this month's rate decision. central bank officials emphasizing the need to get ahead of economic weakness with president draghi stepping up. -- stepping up first. looking ahead to the ecb next week. let's begin with the big issue. a polarizing treasury market call. >> all the way down to zero. >> i think that would be pretty extreme. >> we are actually at 2%. 2.5% by year-end. 2.5% and maybe more. 1.5% for the 10 year. >> someone saying we will see tremendous re-inflation over the next 10 years, buy gold. and on the other side, and have someone saying, 10-year yields are going to zero. >> i don't want to think of a world of zero interest rates. >> that is where we are heading over the next couple years. >> 0% for the u.s. treasury seems like an excessively pessimistic forecast. >> we have had the recovery, it's coming to an end. >> if you believe that the business cycle is coming

♪ jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro.loomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, payrolls growth bouncing back. the jobs report easing some concerns. shaking up fed expectations, investors beginning to pair back rate cut bets, sending treasury yields higher after a record breaking week in the bond market. we begin with the big issue, a solid job report clouding the fed's next move. >> looks like rate cuts are off the table. >> it is hard for them to say, we are still going to cut. >> when i look at these numbers i keep going, why, why can't we wait? >> maybe the trade war is not weighing on the outlook as much as we feared. >> i think you will have to reprice to a certain degree less than three cuts. >> the good jobs data report pulls people back wondering what the fed will do. >> the fed is in preemptive mode. >> does the fed to get in front of the eightball or behind the eight ball? >> it comes down to the discussion, do they want to make insurance cuts? what are we ensuring ourselves against? jonatha

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ coming up, chairman powell heading toward july 31, teeing up rate cuts. the data from the u.s. looks resilient and europe showing signs of life, fueling a bit of a backup in government bond markets. let's begin with the big issue. are there cracks appearing in the everything rally? >> we have seen a strong rally. >> the entire market rally so far has been discounting with -- what the central banks are doing. >> the one thing that has not rallied in this everything rally are long dated bond prices. >> investors have been positioning for continued divergence in that correlation. >> we have had some better data recently. >> inflation data did see a reversal of some of the weakness. >> a pretty positive environment for yields. >> we have seen an astronomical amount of data in this year. it is not in short dated treasuries, it is an longer dated. one of the most crowded markets is duration. you may be better off at the short end of the curve. >> i

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" start right now. ♪ coming up, u.s. growth delivering an upside surprise ahead of a much anticipated fed decision. present draghi making the investors wait until september. the ecb teeing up extra stimulus, fueling inflows into every major bond sector. from high yield to emerging-market. we begin with the big issue. something in the data for both the hawks and the doves. >> the u.s. economy is doing very well. >> the u.s. consumer really dominates in terms of the overall gdp number. >> headline gdp growth is in line with what everyone expect it. >> wage growth, income growth has been relatively strong. >> government spending data, quite strong. >> there is some upside risk to the economy. >> the consumer side of things and the labor market side of things, but the manufacturing is under pressure. >> pretty significant dislocation between the industrial economy and the consumer economy. >> it is the composition of the data here that is worrying the fed. >> potentia

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, confusion reigns following the final fed tweak before this month's rate decision. central bank officials emphasizing the need to get ahead of economic weakness with president draghi stepping up. looking ahead to the ecb next week. let's begin with the big issue. as of july 1, the longest economic cycle in modern history. you have to pick up the camp, either we are headed toward near-term recession, or we are in a super cycle." gershon, which one? gershon: always hard to say in the short-term. some of those people calling for lower rates are those that called for a 3% 10 year a year ago. this is the only industry where you can be wrong again and again and people still want to know your view. it is really fascinating. the reality is, what europe has taught us is there is no lower bound. in other words, if equities are weak, if the economy is weak, we can go a lot lower, even negative. on the other hand, i'm not sure we shou

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. startserg "real yield" right now. coming up payrolls growth bouncing back. the jobs report using some concerns. shaking up fed expectations, investors paring back rate cut that's. sending treasury yields higher after a record week. we begin with a big issue, a solid job report clouding the fed's next move. >> looks like rate cuts her off the table. >> hard for them to say, we are still going to cut. >> when i look at these numbers i keep on thinking, why can't we wait? war is note trade weighing on the outlook as much as we feared. >> i think you will have to price to a certain degree less than three cuts. >> the fed is in preemptive mood. >> it comes down to the discussion, do they want to make insurance cuts? what are we ensuring ourselves against? jonathan: to discuss, we have ian steely, the well core of invesco. it is a number one question following the payrolls report. what is the jobs number on july 5 mean for the fed meeting on july 1? no doubt, the payrolls number was strung across the board but we don't thin

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg real yield starts right now. coming up, confusion reigns following the final fed tweak before this month's rate decision. central bank officials emphasizing the need to get ahead of economic weakness with president draghi stepping up. looking ahead to the ecb next week. let's begin with the big issue. a polarizing treasury market call. >> all the way down to zero. >> we are actually at 2%. >> 2.5 and maybe more. >> 1.54 the 10 year. >> on the other side we have some saying 10-year yield are going to zero. >> i don't want to think of a world of zero interest rates. u.s. treasury seems like an excessively pessimistic forecast. >> we have had the recovery, it's coming to an end. >> if you believe the business cycle is coming to an end, that call makes sense. >> now the central banks are falling into line and cutting rates. polarizationt this of use, it tend to be close to regime changes. >> something is going to give. >> that is the journey we are on until something different h

[applause] jonathan: yes, hello, i am in fact jonathan pliska. and i am absolutely honored to be speaking at this wonderful garden symposium. i would like to thank the white house historical association, oak spring, and all the other sponsors for having me here today and for hosting the event. as well as that splendid reception last evening at the u.s. botanical garden. all fore, thank you attending. i am going to give you the overview of the first 100 years or so of the white house grounds, focusing on the various uses of the landscape, as well as its physical development, and to squeeze us all in in a little under 30 minutes. now, that is a bit of a tall order. we obviously will not be able to touch on absolutely everything, but i like a challenge. it will be just fine. so let's start with the basics. i am sure you are aware that the white house is the official residence of the president of the united states, and is located just a few hundred yards south of here in downtown washington. the white house itself stands as as a centerpiece to a gran

guy: jonathan will stick around. jonathan stubbs citigroup's global and u.k. equity strategist will stay with us. let's take a look at the u.s. markets right now. we have seen a significant move in the bond market over the last 10 to 15 minutes. u.s. equities are going nowhere in a hurry today, as you can see. -- therage s&p, nasdaq average, s&p, nasdaq are all trading to the down line. we are 16 minutes away for -- 18 minutes away from the close. the ftse is outperforming. it is the big defensive names doing well today. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is the european close. let's get a first were news update. here were the details is tommy donahoe. lavrov is urging iran to carry out its obligations. tehran acknowledges it stockpiled more enriched uranium than it is supposed to. lavrov also says europe should offer economic relief u.s. sanctions to iran. in hong kong, they are cleaning up after protests left a legislature ransacked. debris and empty teargas canisters are littering the streets. hong kong's china backed leader vowed

jonathan: joining me now, let's begin with you. maybe the biggest risk is the one that is in duration and not in credit. your thoughts. kathy: every once in a while they do ring the bell. i think that with all the easing if we look at cap previous quantitative easing cycles we have seen, we have seen the curve steepen and rates move up. not too surprising with the fed getting extremely dovish, expectations for europe to have some sort of qe program. china predicting some stimulus. onit has been settle treasuries. in germany, 16, 17 basis points over the last four days and hardly any attention and hardly any this option elsewhere, what do you think? >> we have been tactically our duration recommendations to investors. at the same time, it is going to be hard to fight central banks. this is not 2009 when we saw the first inklings of qe and everyone thought it would be inflationary. we are not there. inflation is going after the u.s. because of tariffs. we can't forget that. there was a tariff effect in the cpi number yesterday. that

nada: jonathan turley, thank you so much. jonathan: thank you. nada: at a conference in london focused on press president trump has been used as an example of how the media is being vilified around the world m d the attacks on freee in danger democracy. it was announced that a new legal panel will be created to help support countries improve conditions forournalists. the uk's special envoy on media freedom and human rights lawyer amal clooney has been speaking to our chief international correspondent lyse doucet. amal: the leader of the most powerful democracy when he speaks about journalists isn't saying that they are enemies of the people -- trumppresident amal: yes, president trump. it is important that you have other foreign ministers saying that we have to be vigilant and arding press freedom. at the same time, i made it clear in my speech that democracies are also creatg problems, and there are problems for the australia at the moment, northern ireasnd, the julian nge case, and others. none of the states have perfect records, but it is impo

to say --is difficult as jonathan mentioned, it is a lot of trying to keep the lights on. the border funding, which we saw passed in the house and the senate recently was a huge thing for them -- and obviously immigration is a top priority in this administration. otherwise, it is a lot of back and forth. the white house and congress recognized anything they want to do with some sort of purpose in congress is unlikely to pass both the house and the senate. host: one of the big issues was the census and the citizenship question on the senses. the president is insisting he will push back a little bit about this. let's talk about that for a moment, but first hear from the president on friday as he was headed toward new jersey, adding the questions about citizenship. [video clip] mr. trump: we are thinking about doing it. we are doing well in the census. he made a statement. he wrote something out. the judge did not like it. ford a lot of respect justice roberts. he did not like it. he did say come back. that is what he was saying. we will see what happens. we can also add an a

jonathan: i think that is a major factor.f you have ability for demand -- we have seen a lot of -- if you have not thought -- that ability for -- if you have not got that ability for demand, it will follow through. turnaround sort of a . but when you look at some of the demand, some of the reports coming out in terms of stocks and all those stockpiles, you get a sense that the market still feels that the world is awash with oil. regardless of whether it is geopolitical concerns, demand concerns, the price still looks quite heavy. paul: let's talk stockpiles of a different variety, iron ore stockpiles at chinese ports continuing to decline. i have a chart that illustrates that. you can see the white line jogging upward. -- jagging upward. 120 per ton. jonathan: i think if you think about it, even eight months ago, no analysts were saying this is where it should go. if you look at the demand, it is all about china. it is all about the supply-side, what they are trying to do, what they are trying to achieve. we have seen the dro

what -- so laugh, you think when jonathan's snotted at himself. >> yeah, jonathan snotted himself. >>en is the hardest that you laughed while filming and what is the story behind it? >> the hardest that i've laughed. oh [ laughter ] oh oh okay [ cheers and applause okay, so, it was actually when -- it was - [ laughter ] its during our press shoot for season - >> yes >> yes >> wait, it was during our press shoot for season four. >> yep >> and we were dressed as cheerleaders >> yep [ laughter ] and jonathan tried to do a a really sexy pose and he sneezed and he got a cup of boogers in his beer [ laughter ] they went everywhere i actually peed myself [ cheers and applause ♪ >> you got it. >> of course you got it. >> jimmy: this is for tan. >> tan >> jimmy: yeah >> oh, i'm sorry, tan. [ laughter ] >> jimmy: it'll be good. it'll be fine. >> by the way, i think bobby's probably going to get all these answers. >> i'm shocked we got him to put them on over his hair. >> i know. [ laughter ] >> jimmy: can you hear you can't hear, okay >> see - >> jimmy: perfect. >> can you hear? >> jimmy: jonat

now jonathan hunt live outside the naval base courthouse in san diego. jonathan?the breaking news here right now chief edward gallagher is not guilty of murdering that isis prisoner in iraq in 2017. he is not guilty of shooting at civilians in a crowd in iraq. is he not guilty of firing from a sniper position at an elderly man. he is not guilty of firing at a young iraqi woman from a sniper position, too. we understand at this point the only charge on which he has been found guilty is posing for a photograph with the body of that isis prisoner. he is guilty. the jury has decided on that charge. but, that is the least serious of the seven charges he was facing. it carries a maximum prison sentence of four months, given the chief gallagher has already served that time. we understand he will walk out of this courtroom behind me shortly a free man and will be free to celebrate the fourth of july with his family the breaking news. chief h edward gallagher again not guilty of all the charges against him guilty only of posing for a picture with the body of a dead isis fi

jonathan: no. the one thing that i think was astonishing here is that mueller's position on what he could and could not answer was coletely conflicted and so of unintelligible. fact, he would at certain points say "i can't answer that question," and five minutes later answer basically the same question by another me then he would say "i cannot get into decisions i made as a prosecutor," and in the second hearing was going at length about his decision not to subpoena the president. none of it made lot of sense. turley, thank y very much indeed as usual for joining me. wocongren madeleine dean was one of the lawmakers who onques mr. mueller. i spoke to her earlier today with christian fraser ansk started byg her how she thought the hearing went. rep. dean: this was an important day not for democrats, not for republicans, but foriche am people. we had the opportunity to have robert mueller, a man of integrity and credibility, come before our committee and lay out the fact extraordinarily damning wrong

crane covering this story for us thank you jonathan. you're watching indeed of your news coming up next on business africa uganda has a social media tax was supposed to increase revenue instead it is weighing on business and cutting down and. monica jones has that story much more coming up on the domain of business don't forget to go to our web site you know me dot com for all the latest news and information around the clock thank you for watching. some people for information provided. the koreans want to express. w. on facebook and twitter up to date in touch follow us. just listen this is the sound of time tossing his forests the songs of 25 football fields a lost every minute i do.

pedro: el jueves, jonathan se la pasa callando y evita platicar con su madre, dice josÉ.migraciÓn en el paso, texas el prÓximo 30 de julio. ellos esperan que ese dÍa los liberen en estados unidos, y puedan continuar hasta maryland para juntarse con el resto de la familia. dice que emocionalmente no estÁ preparado para que lo regresen a mÉxico y que continÚen todos separados. jorge: para terminar, una hazaÑa. varias personas ayudaron al conductor de una camioneta que se volcÓ en una autopista, despuÉs de que se reventÓ una llanta. ocurriÓ esta maÑana en illinois. ambos pudieron colocar el vehÍculo de la otra que el conductor pudiera salir . finalmente, sano y salvo el chofer saliÓ caminando. gracias por haber estado con nosotros. gracias por elegirnos. nos vemos maÑana. ♪ kemal: ¿a qué viniste, nihan?

jonathan, thank you very much indeed. jonathan beale.f emergency has been declared in the american state of louisiana, with the threat of the first hurricane of the season. tropical storm barry — currently in the gulf of mexico — is expected to be upgraded to a hurricane later tonight and to make landfall tomorrow. in new orleans, there are fears the levees that were reinforced after hurricane katrina — could now be overwhelmed. leigh milner reports. reaching up into the sky, terrifying footage of a large waterspout over lake pontchartrain near new orleans. in the city, streets have been turned into rivers by the flash floods and as the storm creeps further towards louisiana, a state of emergency has been declared. this is a very significant severe weather event and the national weather service, they're using terms like life—threatening floods. as residents stock up on water and emergency supplies, forecasters predict the storm could reach hurricane strength by this evening. because it's going to be such a slow—moving storm, we are going

jonathan, investigative reporter here at msnbc. now i want to show you this interesting moment that happened when the lights came back on in one portion of new york city. take a look at this. [ people cheering ]. >> yay! >> woo! >> might be on 8th avenue, new yorkers cheering, some excited to have the power come back on. unfortunately, i think where we have my colleague, kendis gibson, they're not seeing that overjoyed reaction because the power is not back on yet. let's go to kendis who is out there. i see it is still dark behind you. have any of the lights come back on since we last spoke to you, kendis? >> reporter: yes, morgan, we have been keeping a close eye on the lights and the power grid, at least in this area. so far we haven't noticed much of a difference whatsoever. of course, you had that latest report from con edison mentioning that five out of the six power grids were knocked out as a result of this power outage that took place more than four hours ago now. five of the six have now been restored. i believe that we're

to you both, welcome all over again, and jonathan, we have, i think, established and agreed the report was perhaps written for an america of another time, a time before social media and a time of great attention spans that no longer exist. to use nicolle wallace's theory, how much damage do you think mueller can do, if, indeed, he stays within the four points of the report? >> i can certainly tell you that people in the white house still feel like he can deliver quite a bit of damage. as somebody put it to me in the last day or so, the report was 448 pages. it was dense. a lot of it was sort of very lawyerly and there is a sense that a lot of lawmakers and a lot of americans didn't read it. someone said to me, they may not have read the book but they might watch the movie. that's what we're going to get on wednesday, is robert mueller sitting before congress, his hand in the air taking the oath and testifying, only his second public statement. the other one clocked in about nine minutes. this one will go nine hours. five hours. even if he doesn't stray from the report, he is going to d

jonathan karl, abc news, the white house. >> our thanks to jonathan there. >>> federal agents are set the cities on the list are atlanta, baltimore, chicago, denver, houston, los angeles, miami, new orleans, new york, and san francisco. but i.c.e. officials now say they'll temporarily suspend operations in new orleans because of tropical storm barry. >> federal officials say i.c.e. agents plan to target those with final deportation orders, including families whose cases have been fast tracked by judges. >>> breaking overnight, singer r. kelly has been arrested on child pornography charges. the arrest in chicago came hours after a 13-count indictment was returned by federal prosecutors in illinois. the charges also include obstruction of justice. kelly was taken into custody by new york city police detectives. he's expected to be taken to new york. kelly is already charged with more than 20 counts of sexually abusing women and children in illinois. he's pled not guilty to those accusations. details about this latest arrest are expected to be released today. >>> the road to recovery for

jonathan? >> good evening, laura.effrey epstein was brought into court today, his hair disheveled and dressed in a blue jail uniform, having spent the night in a cell. a far cry from the comforts of his private jet, which had flown him to the u.s. from paris over the weekend prior to his arrest. prosecutors revealed they found hundreds, perhaps thousands of lewd photographs of apparently underage girls when they searched epstein's new york mansion. they charged him with abusing dozens of girls as young as 14. >> children are provided epstein massages while they were nude or nude partially. children who were entitled to do all these things at the hands of a man more than earn nearly three times their age. >> epstein was jailed pending a bail hearing next monday, which prosecutors will argue he should be kept in jail. >> we think is a significant flight risk and that is why we are seeking detention pending trial. he has enormous wealth. the charges are very serious and carry with him maximum sentence of 45 years in jail

jonathan, i know you want to jump in.e massive global climate change, a study saying 95% result of human activity that you are seeing these fluctuations. so many other studies. go, jonathan. >> kirsten gillibrand wants to spend $10 trillion. we already solved the global warming problem. we have solved it. it's called air conditioning. >> oh, my god! that is horrible. horrible. david: i love it. >> what about electricity? what about the people that can't afford air conditioning? people are dying in this heat wave. >> or natural gas, of course, but environmentalists are dead set against that as well. you know, at least the anti-war, the vietnam anti-war protesters, they were against something that was really evil, a scienceless w senseless war, lot of americans were dying. the environmentalist movement is sacrifice for sacrifice sake. the whole point is to hurt industry, not help the environment. >> i go on past performance. we were told 30, 40 years ago it was global cooling. al gore 13 years ago said we had ten years or w

jonathan, what do you make of all this? >> it's frustrating.ublicans used to be a party of fiscal conservatism. but now it's rush limbaugh, even the president himself, they seem like they want to give up that mantle. there's really no talk of cutting entitlement spending, no talk of privatizing social security or doing away with this massive infrastructure boondoggle. both parties seem to be really interested in spending a hell of a lot of taxpayers' money and this bodes poorly for the economy moving forward. >> i think president trump is concerned enough about the conservatives in the republican party not liking this deal that in fact, he now is talking about spending cuts if he gets re-elected. so the answer is there is no appetite for -- >> just for the record, he campaigned on cutting the deficit and the debt, getting rid of it outright. >> then he got there and found out nobody, nobody on either side of the aisle really has the fortitude to contemplate heaven knows entitlement reform. that's never going to happen. but even modest spending

and that's an issue as well. >> jonathan, let me bring you in. help us understand what is at stake here. if the justice department is to be successful, if they were to wipe out the affordable care act, of course, this wouldn't likely conclude, we presume, until some point next year, some point in the supreme court's term which would put it only a matter of months before the 2020 election. what would the impact be if the aca were erased, obamacare erased? >> the impact would be devastating. it's really hard to overstate. remember, we're talking about every piece of the affordable care act. so the -- everybody knows the protections of the pre-existing conditions. those go out the window. but it goes beyond that. the money that people get, the tax credits to help them buy insurance, that money disappears. all the money that's being spent to help states expand medicaid which you 37 states, plus washington, d.c., have done. that goes away. and when you add it all up, that is 20 million people who aren't going to get health insurance, according to the