jonathan: i couldn't agree more. the conversation begins this morning with eric stein, eaton vance codirector of global income. equities just shifting higher even though the world around us is becoming increasingly uncertain. why? eric: first off, thanks for having me on, and good morning. i think it is something tom keene just mentioned. is -92eld in the u.s. basis points. you have a weaker dollar. gold going up. global liquidity is coming back, even though there are massive problems in the real economy. that helps the corporate sector broadly. obviously you have the tech part of the architect, which is almost like its own sector. tom: the weekend fear is it is like november of 2000, we are setting ourselves up for march of 2001. do we slide through this odd bond market do equities adjust and adapt in a measured way? all right you worry -- or are you worried about a jump to something ugly? eric: great question. tom: you better like it. it's my only good when this week. eric: that's a good way to start monday morning

jonathan: love catching up with you. amy wu silverman there of rbc as we count you down to the opening bell in new york city. equity futures recovering, down just 0.2% on the s&p 500. the story from yesterday that follows through into wednesday is a weaker dollar. as this session grows older, that delegates weaker once again. me at least, that has been the story as the renewed dollar weakness. tom: you've got the blended dxy index through 95. see as a big deal, to handle of 94 on the dxy. you see it in sterling as well. but we didn't get to me on that i think is so important is usually what gets people into trouble is leverage. i really agree with her point on the sample size here is so odd. but the huge mystery going into august is the leverage, the use of leverage within the system. jonathan: the use of leverage, and whether people have really allocated to this rally. that has been the story for me over the last couple of months. we have seen it in the fund managers survey from of america, that slowly it has -- from ba

jonathan: what i call from rbc. let's get the coverage started right here with ian lyngen, bmo capital markets head of u.s. rates strategy. fantastic to catch up with you. is it too early to announce forward guidance today? ian: i am in agreement that it is a bit early to make the transition to hard forward guidance in terms of actual numbers the fed is looking for before they even start thinking about normalizing monetary policy. this is years away, not quarters away, and terms of when they would even contemplate the process of normalization. there's also a sequencing issue. the fed needs to transition into the new framework before they put hard numbers on their forward that, so if the fed has any ambition of trying to out-do theypectations, i think are going to be very challenged to do that simply because of the transition to an average year-over-year core inflation target, which is anticipated by the end of 2020. tom: on the 10 year yield, where is support? where is resistance? where are the levels that matter fo

jonathan: i agree with you.oming up on the program, ralph schlosstein, evercore ceo and cochairman. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on course for a fifth day of gains in this equity market. the market screen as follows on the s&p 500, up 0.3%. in the bond market, unchanged on the 10 year at 0.6%. we talked about dollar weakness over the last week or so. in foreign-exchange and g10, the dollar doing ok. the euro break at has been the story for many. euro-dollar through $1.16 briefly. we got that print yesterday. right now up 0.1%. tom: euro stronger versus the yen. euro swissie has been very tight and range bound. i am now joining us, and really looking forward to a good conversation with the guy who has put together a firm of continued success. it is evercore isi, of the great ed hyman, and he is ralph schlosstein, cochairman and co-ceo, looking like he just

jonathan: it is fair to say.on't think amazon ever had that big plunge lower, and that is the story in the equity market. big cap tech is absolutely dominating this stock market in the united states, equity futures up 10 points on the s&p in a month where the dollar has had its worst month going back to 2010. up next on foreign exchange. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ hike! simon pagenaud takes the lead at the indy 500! coming to the green flag, racing at daytona. they're off... in the kentucky derby. rory mcllroy is a two time champion at east lake. he scores! stanley cup champions! touchdown! only mahomes. the big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. ♪ apple, amazon and facebook crushing it. good morning alongside tom keene. this is "bloomberg surveillance" this is your price action. equities up 8 present. -- 8 percent. as for cable, the path against the u.s. dollar. 11 straight days of gains. oft is 11 straight days pound strength. i'm almost lost for words. tom: let's d

jonathan: i think thousands.ove to know how any people were sitting around those individuals in those offices, giving them the nod and hand signals. tom: we could beat it to death, but let's not do that because we've got to get to this afternoon, where they will reaffirm revenue generation and the ability to generate free cash flow. our guest joins us right now. what are we going to see from these earnings, and particularly given the pandemic, what will we see in revenue dynamics? >> thank you for having me. i think out of the big tech execs would be received that they got to do this before their earnings. i wouldn't like to be in their shoes, to be seen as profiteering from the pandemic and having to undergo questions after earnings. that is what i expect from all three names, amazon, google, and facebook. expectations are high, and all would have upside. they should have higher level of profits. they should highlight how the recovery looks like. parts,tock has moving but i feel amazon has the highest level of u

jonathan g: no. think the real question is, and i know that you guys have been addressing this, is the story that has a really concerned. the fallen interest rates is the market saying, we don't think there would be any economic growth over the decade. we are going to get a bounce off the bottom. i know it is slowing down and stalling out. the question is where is the impact of this over the long run and all of the debt we are accumulating, and it is going to be slower. iss weakening of this bounce really problematic for industrial companies and mining companies and retailers and banks. and so you have a chunk of the market, maybe one third of the market that is really susceptible to some of the economic problems we are having. and then you have probably about 70% of the market, not just five names, but 70% of the market that appears to be healthy. if you look at healthcare names and consumer staples names. so you have this real bifurcations not only between the five, but those that are exposed to th

jonathan: the signal here is important.urope is demonstrating they can borrow at the european level and distribute grants accordingly. that was unthinkable 10 years ago. lisa: they are also putting in certain taxation powers that give it more of a federation kind of feel. europe has gotten its act together. how about the united states? today we hear potential results from treasury secretary steve mnuchin and house speaker nancy pelosi discussing the proposal that mooching came to with the white house. this will potential into payroll tax cuts, as well as potentially no state aid, which will be a problem for democrats. in the senate banking committee on nominations to the fed reserve board. then united air and snap reporting earnings. snap at the forefront of big tech's prowess so far this year. jonathan: looking at the fixed income market, the bond market doing ok. the euro slightly weaker, with euro-dollar at $1.1414. all about europe this morning. is about fiscal authorities in the united states later. crises in europe to

jonathan: great to catch up with you.oldman sachs delivering some record numbers and that balance sheet. across the board, a big beat with goldman. mentioned some of the words of jamie dimon. this is not a normal recession. the recessionary part of this you are going to see down the road. you are just not going to see it right away because of all of the stimulus. that is exactly what you were talking about. tom: the stimulus we see within the relative success of these earnings as well, and he banks to come all benefiting from it. what i would focus on here is everything gets sped up in a recession. the five-year business plan becomes three years, and to get out bonuses in february is going to be a real task for these executives. you can do efficiencies, but allison alluded to it, there is a new technology overlay on this which is a great unknown. the digital side of this. you know this better than i do because of your britishness. other parts of the world our way out front of us on taking in digital banking. jonathan: i r

jonathan: david, thank you. i didn't have -- i didn't think i would have to say thank you for your patience this early in the morning. [laughter] david lebovitz of jp morgan. it was said to us yesterday that whenever tom brings up soccer nonsense with me, it's because he doesn't want to talk about the red sox. a quick email, and all that said was post game alert for the mets. did the red sox really lose to the mets yesterday? what on earth is going on with your baseball team? tom: it was the edge of 1986. i expected them to launch the ball over the monster. jonathan: season over? tom: yeah, but we knew that a week ago. [laughter] jonathan: lisa abramowicz back in the building with us. equities bouncing off the bottom. equity futures down 0.2%, negative just six points. what a week we've got coming up for you. a fed decision tomorrow. that meeting begins today. tech hearings tomorrow, alongside tech earnings thursday. is it one for the market? we will debate that in the next couple of days. yield curve up by a si

jonathan: thank you.une system response to this virus is where all of the research is going right now to build a vaccine. tom: politico had a nice summary of this today, hugely complex. it is not a binomial thing, one or two ideas. it is 5, 6, 7 outcomes you could get. it is a huge mystery right now. jonathan: lisa's question as to how this eventually gets rolled prospecte's a real that once we roll this out, there's another challenge in and of itself. tom: there's people already working on this, to have distribution of it. weaker dollar breaking down. jonathan: the equity market breaking up, higher, up i 0.8%. coming up on the program, we will head down to washington. the senate banking committee today with a controversial pick in the mix. this is bloomberg. ♪ ,onathan: from new york city this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am alisa -- i am jonathan ferro. futures, off .7%. yields unchanged. withuro doing nothing euro-dollar

good to see you, jonathan. jonathan: you too. "washington post" live will be back next week with president and c.e.o. barbara hunton and my colleague, robin, will interview the founder and creative director of brother baylese. jonathan capehart of "the washington post.

good to see you, jonathan. jonathan: thank you. "washington post" live will be back next week with president and c.e.o. barbara hunton and my colleague, robin, will interview the founder and creative director of brother baylese. jonathan capehart of "the washington post." thank you for being here. happy fourth. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2020] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] >> the former u.s. ambassador to russia discuss russia's -- discusses russia, live monday at 1:00 p.m. eastern on c-span. ♪ ♪ >> all of the decades that i have been involved in chasing infectious diseases, i have never seen anything that is so protean to -- there's no other infectious disease that goes from 40% of the people having no symptoms, to some having mild symptoms, to some having severe, some requiring staying atom

jonathan: that's right. council meeting that you are talking about was on june 19, and i think the timing is interesting because on june 23, president trump came to town, held a rally, decidedly did not wear a face mask. so a bunch of folks, a lot of folks who were there at the rally, also didn't wear a facemask. what signal do you believe it sends that the president of the united states refuses to wear a facemask, at least publicly? mayor gallego: i'm concerned that it adds a political element to what should be a public health debate. he sends a signal that he's not taking this seriously and that it's not mandatory. the president of the united states has access to the best public health information available, and for him to decide to not wear a mask gives anyone who's uncomfortable and doesn't want to or for other reasons would like to pass on a facemask an excuse to not wear it. so to me it is a poor decision. at the local level, it has not been as political. many republican mayors in the greater phoenix a

tom: big tech earnings jonathan: jonathan: -- big tech earnings this thursday. . big tech earnings this thursday. work fromthink the home construct has generated some business trends that have really accelerated trends that -- thatng before area were going before. the online versus in-store shopping trend was going for years, but we have accelerated it area all of these things were already very much moving along. all we have really done is supercharge the speed. lisa: one of the big stories has been the weaker dollar versus its competitor currencies area since 2018, how does this factor into your strategy? tobias: it is actually quite important. if i look at budget deficits as a percent of gdp, it is a pretty good indicator for many years now. suggesting dollar weakness already, prior even to the pandemic. people ran for the safety of treasuries believing they would have significant support systems . as we were starting to reopen the economy, even with these awful bumps in terms of outbreaks, it is unlikely we are going to shut down the economy the same way we did

jonathan: that will be a conversation in the next hour.r come always -- ambassador, always fortunate to get you on the show. never thought we would come out of a crisis or at least be working through one with europe looking good relative to the united states. on the policy response, whether response fiscal , i would caution that coming out of the last global crisis in 2007, 2008, europe's bad response sewed the seeds of 10 years of underperformance. it planted the seeds for the next eight years of underperforming versus the united states. i think that is something we have to pay a little bit more attention to. the data in the united states is looking softer. data in europe is looking better, and most people expect that trend to continue. tom: to that point, i would look for a reset this weekend of many of the investment houses as they look forward to the economic data. they are going to fold in the stimulus debate in washington. the overlay of the collapse of the republican debate in washington with the new economic trends we are seeing in

jonathan: don't you? what is fascinating about this story is that highlights how different corporate markets are from treasury markets. the federal reserve is buying directly from the banks in order to support this market. they are subject to the whims of a market that is traditionally over-the-counter, not done electronically. what that means is potential losses right off the bat. they are price insensitive by which will lead to trouble at some point. i don't know how you do that with an infinite balance sheet. tom: where did this word come from? everything is resilient right now. jonathan: i think that's what you are facing when you were -- what you say when you are facing a little bit of trouble. are you resilient? do you feel resilient? lisa: i can't help myself. jonathan: don't encourage him. tom: it took me years to figure out what relegated means. jonathan: jp morgan firm in the premarket. uncertainty and these companies still can't provide us with any real clarity or guidance. that's going to be t

jonathan: they are totally connected.had a cleaner slower reopening process, you might've needed to do a lot less, but i do not want to get away from the idea you would have had to do more. you definitely would have had to do more. where there is reluctance is we have to accept their people unemployed that cannot be employed because their industries are totally constrained by the restrictions around the pandemic. the airlines, the restaurant business. secretary mnuchin is talking about targeted help for various industries and travel and leisure and the restaurant industry are front and center. you cannot tell people they cannot go back to work because their business are not opening and then not help them. tom: those are the obvious industries and dr. furman alluded that there are less obvious industries that show a sluggishness that may need aid. quite clearly there are two camps on the enhanced unemployment. one camp wants to extend them as they are. there is another camp that wants to end them, and i wonder if we end so

jonathan: 100 ash lisa: --lisa: 100%. the question is how much does a strong euro torpedo goods coming from the region? up until now, it has been viewed as a sign of strength. jonathan: i would take the euro pushing higher over a weaker euro to try to fuel exports and everyone pessimistic about it. i think we would rather see a stronger euro and real reason for optimism on economic recovery and fiscal integration in the perceivable future. i would take that over every thing else, and i am sure others would, too. coming up on the program, will thing much out -- on the program, wolfgang munchau. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm rick gupta. across the -- i'm ritika gupta. across the u.s., states are -- officialscould are warning that they could implement lockdowns again. case numbers are climbing but all but six states. the white house has drawn a line in the sand for the next coronavirus a bill. president trump could reject a measure passed by congress if it doesn't include a payroll tax cut. democra

good to see you, jonathan. jonathan: you too. "washington post" live will be back next week with president and c.e.o. barbara hunton and my colleague, robin, will interview the founder and creative director of brother baylese. jonathan capehart of "the washington post. thank you for being here. happy fourth. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2020] >> c-span's "washington journal" every day. we're taking your calls live on the air, on the news of the day, and discussing policy issues that impact you. coming up friday morning, moderator of the swing state voter project discusses his focus groups with recent campaign 2020 swing voters in key counties across the country. then how the covid-19 pandemic and racial discord could influence campaign 2020, with the ethics and public policy center's henry olson. and a political reporter previews president trump's event friday at mount rush

jonathan: he is not.oes the former vice president convince the american public, the electorate, that he will be tough on china and trade when he was in the administration for eight years and they gave them a pass on all of those issues? kevin: and not just when he was vice president, but also when he was on senate foreign relations. there is this whole record of his time in congress as well that will be openly debated. i think what today marks for the biden campaign is a set of policy proposals that are going to come out, and the foreign policy one will be incredibly interesting to report on and to discuss as well. but as of now, it all comes back to this coalitions. i think theyy, have been enjoying the luxury of having president trump being out ande at the forefront waiting in the wings, so to speak. looking for progressive reaction. what will progressives say on this front? moving forward, can he continue to unite the party, but have progressives on his side in what is increasingly going to look like a

jonathan: fantastic to catch up with you. dr. jonathan quick of the rockefeller foundation.ately, the higher thresholds in many states across the sunbelt is what got us into this mess in the first place. it was always going to be about a tolerance level governors. now, we don't have a federal approach to all of this on something as simple as wearing a mask. i still can't believe that is the case in america right now. if medical professionals can all agree we should be wearing a mask, why don't we have a national mandate to do the just that? lisa: the places to watch right now, some of the elected officials say we are on the brink of a fire out of control. jonathan: equity futures doing ok, down 0.1% on the 500. up next on the program, eric friedman, u.s. bank national --ef until the software chief intelligence officer. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ >> confidence is the elusive issue here. for those that are in work, that will be that fear of the specter of an employment coming on the tracks. >> folks are not going to go out and spend at the same level if they fee

jonathan: lisa is -- i'm thinking about it. jonathan: lisa is worried.hter] lisa: i will say when it comes to banks, when you talk about pessimism, the kbw bank index is down 34% year-to-date. -- tom:tom: wow, wow, i didn't know that. jonathan: counting you down to the opening bell, we are up 0.7% on the s&p 500. building on the rally of the last couple of weeks. we have seen the narrow breadth start to broaden out a little bit more. from new york, alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramovitz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ >> the fact is we are likely facing a slower growth, sluggish economy out of this, and that is a great backdrop for secular growth. >> a lot of businesses are not buying into the v. they see a different destination. people who >> >> got the wrong impression from the data from may and june -- >> people got the wrong impression from the data from may and june. what happened is the economy really fell off a cliff, hit a trampoline and bounced. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomb

jonathan: nancy pelosi. we predicted it.ensions between democrats and republicans trying to pass the next stimulus bill. from new york city, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. i will step away getting ready to count you down to the opening bell. looking forward to catching up with mohamed el-erian. tom: it'll be interesting to talk about the game theory of the moment on many different levels. this is a joy. dash are people that through the government and people that do government. has spent decades serving the united states of america on the side of treasury. he is the guy who gets the fancy people ready for the big meetings, providing international policy and international financial policy. we are thrilled mark sobel could join us this morning. there are so many different ways to go. i want to talk to you about the permanence of our foreign policy given the new unrest in washington with deficits. are we going to have a changed policy? mark: thank you. i am definitely honored to be her

jonathan ferro is with us. jonathan: brilliant work as always.ays enjoy your conversations with fed officials. quite clearly there will be a big focus on forward guidance. there was a line from president harker supporting letting inflation rise above 2% before liftoff. we have heard this many times before, how you formalize that and cemented and doubled down with forward guidance, that will be the key effort. tom: we can go into a clinic with michael on rules of discretion in the track of inflation, but the answer is we are miles away from any inflationary impulse. jonathan: and given the extent of time we have been below capacity, the consensus view is a world of disinflation for developed market economies. in this market we drift higher. the rally continues. the rotation of the last 24 hours gets a little bit more oxygen off the vaccine optimism. off the back of that, futures up 1.4%. the dollar weaker, the euro stronger. next,p next, i con -- up the irish finance minister live on bloomberg tv and radio. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ jona

jonathan: things have changed.he team at bloomberg news has reported repeatedly coming not the cleanest of reads on this equity market even what we saw in futures yesterday off the back of netflix. bear that in mind when you look at futures prices this morning. coming up this morning, abigail , minneapolis fed director of opportunity and inclusive growth. this is bloomberg. ♪ hike! simon pagenaud takes the lead at the indy 500! coming to the green flag, racing at daytona. they're off... in the kentucky derby. rory mcllroy is a two time champion at east lake. touchdown! only mahomes. the big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. iredefined the wordng th'school' this year. it's why, at xfinity, we're committed to helping kids keep learning through the summer. and help college students studying at home stay connected through our university program. we're providing affordable internet access to low income families through our internet essentials program. and this summer, xfinity is cre

jonathan: i'm sure you did not.g up on this program, fiscal affairs department director at the imf on the fiscal next steps worldwide. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ 49... 50! i found you! good job. now i'm gonna stay here and you go hide. watch your favorites from anywhere in the house with the xfinity stream app. free with your xfinity service. now any room can be a tv room. stream live tv, on demand shows and movies even your dvr recordings. download the xfinity stream app today to stream the entertainment you love. xfinity. the future of awesome. jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." for our audience worldwide, we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. i'm jonathan ferro on this friday morning. improved over the last hour, negative about nine points on the s&p 500. and heading towards a second straight week of gains on a week where so many people have discussed pivoting away from the u.s., it is the strength of big tex america that is driving us into the green. sub 60 on a 10 year. the price actio

jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.p next, we catch up with enda curran on this story, and after that, morgan stanley's head of policy research. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. the cash open around the corner. the price action so far, lower on equity futures off the back of the headlines that china has been ordered to close a consulate in houston. united states making the order. we bounce off the lows. than .1% one more the s&p. in the bond market, your 10-year year .529% -- your 10 yield .59%. the dollar breaking down as the session grows older. 1.1584,lar at approaching 1.16, the aussie .66%. is on top, up that move speaks to the risk on rotation in the currency market you are seeing into the commodity currencies come into the growth proxies, that is what is playing out of the market. tom: no question. this is a eurocentric move. the dollar euro stronger than yen. a hea

jonathan: appreciate your time this morning. have a good morning and a good long weekend, priya misra of td securities. this has got to be the number one issue of this month, what the fiscal package looks like. we really need to understand what the strategy is. the president in the last 24 hours said he would support more direct payments to individuals. that's the first time i've really heard him say that with some conviction. i wonder what the follow-up is. whether we have consensus on the administration side is they worry that the enhanced unemployment benefits that expired at the end of this month disincentivizes going back to work. i don't think you can say that the payrolls report we got last month is an accurate indication of this economy, and at the same time say that somehow, and hence tenant women benefits have stopped people returning to work that somehow, enhanced unemployment benefits have stopped people returning to work. lisa: if there is not a re-upping of them, that could perhaps be the trigger for that reckoning

jonathan: we appreciate your time this morning.opefully you can come back soon and keep us up-to-date on everything. deborah fuller, microbiology professor with the university of washington school of medicine. we cannot normalize this economy until we get a view on dependent. he joins the program next. in your equity market, up 41 on the s&p. add some weight to the rally last week. it is a global equity market rally, ones of the chinese media fully endorses overnight, with the shanghai composite is delivering a major gain. this is bloomberg. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- this is bloomberg. ♪ 120 countries. -- this is bloomberg. ♪ the best tv experience just got better because now you can watch all your favorite hulu shows and movies on xfinity. you're only a voice command away from award winning shows like the handmaid's tale, to new hits like little fires everywhere. and fx originals you can only watch on hulu. tha

jonathan: and i understand mr. trudeau will not be there, which is interesting considering we are talking about usmca. in this market right now, we do turn positive by three points on -- s&p 500, up by one point up by 0.1%. if you just look at the people waited s&p 500 in the individual youtituencies, -- if just look at the equal weighted s&p 500 in the individual -- weituencies start the conversation this morning with tony crescenzi of pimco. talk about what is slowly starting to creep into this market or broadly. anthony: when one does look at the nasdaq, the does to be rays of hope in the market place. going back to tell us about the state of markets, both to the idea of liquidity provide by the central banks. radical uncertainty versus ordinary answer. uncertainty.inary the ordinary level of uncertainty, we still don't know what the future holds for this virus, but it doesn't feel as radical at the moment. ago, when we spoke to the idea of liquidity, we know that story quite well. finally, the confidence angle,

i am jonathan ferro. it is a moment to the sensible deep thinkers on the program and thinking about what is happening in the economy. i'll be catching up with mohamed el-erian. tom: the conversation is what we live for. it is great to have mohamed el-erian with us. i heard from him this morning. he was dazzled at how the red -- slow isarted slow the word he used. driving forward the conversation for us, we spoke with kenneth rogoff from harvard university on a study of digital currencies. we will touch on that quickly with rival of roche on -- with regular roche on -- with raghuram rajan. what is the distinction of your study? what does it drive forward about how technology is changing money? currencieshe digital are a revolution. for the first time in 300 years, we can replace cash with something digital. we have already replaced bank accounts, we have digital bank accounts. think of everything going digital and what possibilities that creates, but also what challenges. if the government issues this digi

jonathan: i don't think there is. they are both aware the electorate wants to see a stronger stance on china. let's say donald trump is there another four years. if you get a vice president joe biden going into the white house, i would say look back to what senator warren put out last summer about standards. about human rights. to pushgovernment going that issue a whole lot more? we know how uncomfortable the chinese communist party with that. tom: the issue is also overreach. note to your point of senator warren of massachusetts that those sanctions yesterday were mostly republican senators. she's got some report from the republican side. i think this is aligning yourself with your allies in the region. the tribunal back in 2016 that effectively ruled against china, this is the united states aligning itself with that ruling from 2016 and aligning itself with the allies in the region. i would like to see more of a broader approach in the region on the economics. not just on the foreign policy. tom: in hong kong, the c

jonathan: why are they dragging their feet?s it making it difficult in your constituency to talk to your constituents about why there isn't a plan b on the month of july? the month ofbeyond july? rep. mchenry: we were saying that summer was going to take this thing down with the flu season, and that was just a couple of months ago. we had health experts tell us not to wear masks in the beginning of the year. so the idea that you are going to see two months or three months in the future in this environment is really hard. i think there's some understanding that we wanted to be hesitant to lay out a broad policy path before we actually understand the confines of this. now we are in july. we need to see that clearly from the administration, and from states and localities about ng, because that is a vital aspect as well. don't have childcare, it is very difficult to get back to some semblance of normal life. you talk about a lack of cohesion and certain the about what he told policies are going to be going forward, and yet you have

jonathan ferro on bloomberg television.sweeney and i -- cannot wait to talk to paul sweeney about microsoft forward views. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. equity futures fading. that's begin with the big issue. mitch mcconnell hoping to unveil the gop stimulus bill. one major sticking point -- enhanced unemployment benefits. republicans said to be discussing a short-term expansion. it would be graded as separate -- ohio $1 trillion senator rob portman weighing in. senator portman: most agree there needs to be something in its place. most of us also agree the $600 flat amount for every work is not a good idea going or were because it is creating a disincentive to work. this is a crisis. we need to respond to it, but we cannot play politics as usual. if we do that, i think we get something done by the end of next week. tom: the problem -- jonathan: the problem is appeals like politics as usual.

jonathan: continuing claims set around 60still million.t will be a concern if that is the number. megan greene, if you went to one of those fancy testimonies and there was a conversation about the $600 enhanced unemployment benefits does incentivizing people going back to work, holding back labor supply, what would you say to them? megan: there is no evidence for that. i do not think that is the case. i do not think the numbers play that out. furthermore we have had a bounceback and jobs, but that is largely because the ppp loans did what they were meant to do and lots of people were hired. it is not like to -- it is not like new jobs are created. people if they could find jobs, they would be. they are not hanging out on unemployment, which has expired and may not be re-upped instead of going out and getting jobs. that is completely wrong. jonathan: given where we are with this recovery plateauing, flattening out and away many people anticipated. you went from shutdown to reopen , and then you flattened out, what is the optimal policy resp

i am jonathan ferro.ur equity market, after five straight days of gains, you have to go all the way back to december 2019 to see a winning streak that long. down 24ning, we are points on the s&p, negative at around .73% in the bond market. treasuries really sticky, yields not doing a lot at all. year, 0.6 8%. yields going nowhere this morning. against almost everything with the exception of sterling. pound sterling just a little stronger, cable a little higher. the story of the last 24 hours has been this phenomenal rally in tech stocks. just absolutely unreal, the gains these names have generated. let's go mathematical here. you can do that right now. , charles kantor, news -- neuberger berman and others, i want to go to you on the convexity in the market. convexity is a fancy name for acceleration. you're in a car, you put your got on the pedal, and you faster. that is what we see on these mega stocks right now. how many people are on board? how do you describe the convexity? who is participating in tha

jonathan: i hear this argument a lot. i think you are close to the thoughts of morgan stanley that this is normal. the reopening, the recession playbook stands. people are pushing back. they are say there structural fears to how quickly we can normalize. it is not normal. what is your message? jim: there are certainly differences every time. i totally agree with that. we have not ever had a pandemic that i have studied before. it does have new characteristics. therapy and unique characteristics in the past. were starts and stops in the 2009 recovery. we had massive brokerage firms failures. sometimes it looked a little better, sometimes it looked a little worse. in the early 1980's we had a depression in energy and agriculture in my home state of iowa. commodity deflation, that was start and stop. i don't know if a specific thing is unique to the day, but in reality it is common to the past. is you have to get back to normal before security prices move. they have already moved long before we are back to normal and probabl

jonathan: he is fantastic. i am looking forward to getting him back on the program soon. 20 minutes away from jobless claims, expected to be out all over again. lisa, it is the second wave of job cuts we have all feared. just subtle hints and it is starting to build over the past days. 36,000 potential layoffs from united airlines and then walgreens with alliance announcing another 4000 cuts as you see a slowdown in customer activity. what i find interesting about walgreens is the fact these are staples. they noted a decline in prescription sales because people are not going to the doctor's office as much.this is not necessarily consumer discretionary, which raises a question in my mind, at what point does a slowdown in the economy hamper its growth? and some companies are rewarded for being basic purchases. at a certain point, a slowdown in the economy affects everyone. jonathan: it is about foot traffic. that is what it comes down to. many people said the pandemic will exacerbate and accelerate existing trend

jonathan: sometimes it is simple. show me where global risk appetite is and i will show you the direction of the dollar. you're asking me to imagine a world where the u.s. stumbles and risk remains elevated elsewhere. is that really a world you can imagine. -- can imagine? jordan: it is possible. it is not normal. it iss circumstance, possible that the u.s. still grows but not as fast as everywhere else. there will be a bounce back in american growth. it will be less than elsewhere. let's talk about the other factors driving this. because you have a rise in cases in the u.s., it is clear a rise in cases leads to less economic activity. folks are worried about going to the restaurant, the bar. we are already seeing that play out in certain areas. even in this early stage in the u.s.. in this quarter, the u.s. is struggling with covid-19 cases. when we get to august, we will talk about joe biden. we will talk about higher taxes in the u.s.. au will have market pricing less optimistic view on u.s. assets versus the rest

jonathan: you mentioned europe. subtle differences of the --sical response, europe has broad-based furlough programs, keeping people much closer to their employers. we did it to some extent here in the united states, but not to the degree europe has done it. it makes me constructive about the future in europe. we have managed to get closer on the continent than we have in the united states. emphasis onush more the direct shock -- the problem with what the u.s. has done is in might have propped up consumption, but it expires months end. programs in europe, the furlough in the u.k., they go through all the way into october. right now itlisa: seems like that is the ongoing prescription, the european approach does seem to have a more fitting circumstance given what we are facing. the united states is typically a culture of -- i want to come to this idea they are not backing -- to keep their employees and they are allowing things to break down and restart and that is being credited for one of the reasons for criticism of

senator harris: thank you for being with you, jonathan. happy birthday. jonathan: thank you.ore we get to police reform, to get to intelligence nd the russia story obtained bounties on the lives of american soldiers. you are a member of the senate committee.e you attended a briefing regarding the allegations that this. was involved in the what you learned, is intelligence -- senator harris: is the intelligence in doubt? would say that i, during the course of my three-plus years of being on the senate intelligence committee and, therefore, in receipt of classified information about the threats to security and hot spots around the world that i have come to respect, highly the intelligence community for their professionalism, for the detail, and the precision with which hey work and the enormity of their responsibility, which is policymakers, to inform the executive branch in a way we can make smart decisions are in the best interest of our nation's security. onathan: ok, given what you learned, is it credible that president trump did not know this intelligence, about paying tal

jonathan, we really appreciate your reporting on this. >> thanks for having me. >> thank you, jonathan. really appreciate it. >>> and when we come back, after jonathan swan's interview was released today, donald trump got even more questions, finally, from other reporters about russia paying bounties to kill u.s. troops in afghanistan. two former undersecretaries of state will join us next, wendy sherman and rick stengle. hey, can i... hold on one second... sure. okay... okay! safe drivers save 40%!!! guys! guys! check it out. safe drivers save 40%!!! safe drivers save 40%! safe drivers save 40%!!! that's safe drivers save 40%. it is, that's safe drivers save 40%. - he's right there. - it's him! he's here. he's right here. - hi! - hi. hey! - that's totally him. - it's him! that's totally the guy. safe drivers do save 40%. click or call for a quote today. safe drivers do save 40%. over time, you go noseblind to the odors in your home. (background music) but others smell this... (upbeat music) that's why febreze plug has two alternating scents and eliminate odors for 1200 hours. ♪breathe

jonathan, we really appreciate your reporting on this. >> thanks for having me. >> thank you, jonathan. really appreciate it. >>> and when we come back, after jonathan swan's interview was released today, donald trump got even more questions, finally, from other reporters about russia paying bounties to kill u.s. troops in afghanistan. two former undersecretaries of state will join us next. wendy sherman and rick stangle. e verizon knows how to build unlimited right. you start with the network j.d. power has named the most awarded for network quality 25 times in a row. this network is one less thing i have to worry about. then, give people more plans to mix and match, so you only pay for what you need. that is so cool! include the best in entertainment, and offer it all starting at $35. with the iphone everyone wants. iphone 11 pro on us, when you buy one. because everyone deserves the best. this is unlimited built right. only on verizon. treating cancer isn't just what we do, it's all we do. and now, we're able to treat more patients because we're in-network with even more major insur

jonathan: and right now, we haven't figured it out.new york this morning, we advance 1.2% on the s&p. ♪ 49... 50! i found you! good job. now i'm gonna stay here and you go hide. watch your favorites from anywhere in the house with the xfinity stream app. free with your xfinity service. now any room can be a tv room. stream live tv, on demand shows and movies even your dvr recordings. download the xfinity stream app today to stream the entertainment you love. xfinity. the future of awesome. >> that kind of permanent jobs destruction is taking years to come back from, and we are just now getting a sense as to how much permanent damage has been done to the economy. >> you have a fed that has literally looked into a television camera and said we are just printing the money. >> it is not a discussion about whether there is going to be a recovery or not. let's not confuse a bounce with recovery. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it's really you are with us. "

robert: and jonathan,iceal i want to pause here because i don't want to forget jonathan about what's going on thisr.hole week with fauci. president and allies day the after day asserting more ntrol over information and the admintration ordered hospital to bypass the c.d.c. and send patient information to another data base. and vice president pence urged schools to reope and take their cues from the white house. >> very clear, we don't want c.d.c. guidance to be a reason why people don't reopen their schools. robert: and dr. anthony fauci was attacked in a "usa today" op-ed by peter navarro, one of the president's trade advisor. fauci responded in an interview with the atlantic. >> it is a bit bizarre. i don't really fully understand it. if you talk to reasonable people in the white house, they realize that was a major mistake ont their p because it doesn't do anythin but reflect poorly them. i can't explainro peter nav naes world by himself. so i don't even want to go ther robert: jonathan, i know you want to jump in. this was a week where politics d the political m seemed to be scra

jonathan: no.'t think it will affect beijing at all. it's a plan and they are moving ahead with that. we've seen a couple days moves on the internet. all of that will steadily move forward. there was a speech this week from the chinese foreign minister which basically said we can get on perfectly well with , but thisf the world is the important but, so long as the other countries respect what ,hina does, china's action particularly in its own borders, and that applies to hong kong. tom: one final question and we will come back on europe and france as well. that is simply, how do you gauge the future prosperity of financial hong kong? to all of us, there was a religion to us, a path, a philosophy to finance and banking in hong kong. is it forever gone? jonathan: no. i don't think it is necessary. i think beijing -- we are still in the political phase if you like of the national security law and change in the relationship fan status of hong kong. think medium and longer-term, beijing is going to want

jonathan: that is a huge revision. what is with that?chae: adp revises their numbers when they get additional information. -2,360,000 to positive 3 million and it looks like a big revision correcting back to where we actually were. not sure how we get there, but no one looks at the adp revision numbers. they're probably not going to get called on it. this will maybe give a little hope to people the overall economic economists forecast for tomorrow will be roughly correct. tom: it will be fascinating. thank you. we will have important coverage tomorrow. mr. farrow in conversation with mr. kudlow of the white house. we will do it on thursday, jobs day, tomorrow. this is a wonderful interview. we could spend an hour. really interesting, starting out as a buyer in department stores and going to torture as a legit security analyst on the street, and running a really wonderful consultancy on retail trends. stacy, let me ask an open question to get started. where will we be in six months, going into the holiday season? stacy: in six months i th

jonathan: when it comes to the market, it is clear on all fronts.hings this market is concerned about ahead of the election -- regulation and taxes. it comes down to those things for market participants. alwaysways -- and it comes down to a handful of things. as the weeks and months progress and the year grows older, it is seen as a risk that the senate could flip and the tax reform of the last couple years could be reversed. people are talking that maybe we could get a secretary warren as the treasury secretary. you can imagine how wall street would feel about that over the coming years. large point here is that president biden, what does that mean and how does he play to his democratic party? we will continue this discussion . a person from banque lombard is with us. will the resilient dollars today? ingredients for a downside are finally falling into place. the way we see it is that basically the significant decoupling of the dollar relative to fundamentals, whether long-term or things like interest rate differentials, and the dollar is quite ove