we are willing to jonathan: --jonathan: willing to buy today..willing to buy jonathan: you buying? christopher: there has been discussions of model stocks, banks, oil, travel, and leisure, and small-cap. small-cap has been outperforming for the last month and a half. . --jonathan: and this has been falling for a long time. ad why has this been going in more durable manner? christopher: much is predicated on a successful reopening. the entering of a new economic cycle in which small-cap and value tends to do well. but also many of the large-cap growth companies, the big five companies that dominate most of the big indices are just running out of steam. wellhave done tremendously for good reasons. they are safe havens. there's probably a little less reason with the risk. care about the virus spread worsening when it comes to this rotation? christopher: it is something that we watch. and the reemergence or the third peak is not a surprise to us. .e have a forward look what matters is can we get through the next six months. what is the path for ther

jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.he price action for you. shaping up as follows on the s&p 500, one hour and 35 minutes away from the opening bell. equity futures positive, negative, now they are flat, down about two points. elsewhere in the bond market, yields up three basis points to 0.81%. the story of foreign-exchange, euro-dollar $1.1850. from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> people talk about a k-shaped recovery. it is absolutely true. those at the bottom are having a very hard time. >> it is not clear how you get people to spend money and get the economy going. >> the multi-year bear market in cyclicality is probably over. >> the market is not as well-prepared as it usually is for these downside events. >> central banks and governments are in this together. they are one while it. >> we need support for the economy both from fiscal and monetary policy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning,

jonathan: absolutely.n is coming up in about one hour and 20 minutes time, and on that show will be larry el-erian, justin bieber i heard. [laughter] tom: harry styles. gigi. lisa: debuting the baby. jonathan: gigi hadeed. you can catch that after the show. [laughter] you guys are giving the image trouble. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the chances of congress passing a stimulus package before the election are fading fast. house speaker nancy pelosi and treasury secretary steven mnuchin continue to bicker over the details of the almost $2 trillion proposal. meanwhile, resistance from senate republicans is building, -- so house democrats remdesivir has already been prescribed under emergency youth authorization. it was given to president trump and he was diagnosed with the virus. l'oreal reported a surprise increase in sales. the french company with held by deliveries of cosmetics after lockdown. we spoke with the ceo. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloombe

jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ng the messages. it was just a joke. i like the pile of books. he doesn't need to get a bookshelf. lisa: i thought it was fine. jonathan: don't encourage it, lisa. i can see it coming through the boom blurred desta bloomberg. daniel morris -- through the bloomberg. daniel morris, bnp paribas senior investment strategist. lisa: look at those markets. tom: how about those markets? [laughter] jonathan: i can keep going. let's get to the bond market. tom: never been a problem before. jonathan: you do need bookshelves, i'm with you. thank you for writing in, that one person. thank you very much. [laughter] flying solo in the next hour, i'm jonathan ferro. fixed is bloomberg -- this is bloomberg. ♪ loomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health? it's time for aerotrainer, a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time, all while maintaining s

jonathan: i did -- you listened. jonathan: i did. i just had a little dabble in "bloomberg surveillance." plenty of happy talk thi morning. tom: happy talk you brought up -- happy talk? you brought up mookie betts. [laughter] if jeromeill find out powell is happy or not. the focus of the discussion is digital currencies and cross-border payments. of course, people looking for any guidance he may give in terms of whether the fed could ease again and what the parameters are. , christine lagarde is speaking at an ecb conference, talking about pairing science of being a central banker with the practice of it. people also looking for further easing measures that could come from the ecb. an treasury secretary steven mnuchin is visiting the middle east. no one cares. what people care about is that he is not in washington, d.c., despite the fact that nancy pelosi has a new deadline of tuesday to get some sort of agreement on a new fiscal support deal in order to get something done before the election. markets are moving on this. if it is a g

jonathan: thedent of the , andd states, donald trump joe biden from the campaign trail this weekend. good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures with a lift this morning on the s&p 500. we events 25 on the s&p, up 0.75%. 0.77% on the 10 year. some headlines from white house chief of staff mark meadows. he says he spoke to the president about stimulus for an hour yesterday. hopeful for an agreement in the next 48 hours. that's the latest on that front. and i say that half smiling because how many times have we been here over the last several months? tom: i've got a big wall here of 47 tv networks. in paris, not that i understand a word of it. of got fox biz, and i guess that is the conduit for the administration. where is leader mcconnell? jonathan: leader mcconnell was talking somewhere in the range of $500 billion. . i imagine he will listen. he said he will take a look at it. but leader mcconnell has to get it through the senate. there has

[laughter] jonathan: what is that?m london and new york, good morning to you all this tuesday morning. more banks still to come. tom: can we talk,? gamma?we talk jonathan: i'd love to do that. there's a tease. ♪ ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health? it's time for aerotrainer, a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time, all while maintaining safe, correct form and allows for over 20 exercises. do the aerotrainer super crunch. the pre-stretch works your abs even harder, engaging the entire core. then it's the back extension, super rock, and lower back traction stretch to take the pressure off your spine and stretch muscles. planks are the ultimate total body exercise. build your upper body with pushups. work your lower body with the aerosquat. the aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. it inflates and deflates in less than 30 seconds using the electric pump

jonathan: jonathan: here's the take -- jonathan: here's the take of chris watling of longview economicsest money supply data support the contention that further stimulus isn't necessary. what is needed is a vaccine. that would release the full effects of the stimulus." that is a take that chris watling doesn't just total loan. that is a take many people share with him dust doesn't just hold alone -- doesn't just hold alone. that is a take that many people share with him. tom: i love the idea of pushing against the pimco religion of new normal. what does it mean forward? chris: the old normal, if you like, it is kind of what goes around, comes around. the thing i like about economic theory is it changes all the time. people get stuck on one theory, but the reality is the world changes, and you need to use different theory to address it, which is kind of what we are thinking about in the old normal, going back to where you were. what it means here, it is amazing how much cash has amassed on balance sheets. in some ways it is amazing. it some ways it isn't. we've had amazing transfer from

kevin had jonathan: jonathan: a late night -- jonathan: kevin had a late night.ldn't make it to the bureau. [laughter] kevin: that's not true. that's not true. jonathan: the truth is what i say, kevin. lisa: oh, dear lord. jonathan: the average pole right now for joe biden, almost 10 points. tom: i don't buy it. jonathan: that's ok. i'm just going to read out the numbers. hillary clinton four years ago, with this much time before the election, had a lead of just over five points. so almost double that for the former repeat -- the former vp joe biden. florida is still there, right after california and texas. we were all shaped by 2016. whatever anybody's political persuasion is, we need a confidence building reset in the , maybeso maybe in 2024 when we are doing this for years from now, we will have greater confidence. wonder howakes you vulnerable this market shift is. tom: absolutely. jonathan: for contested election and the potential blue wave. tom: you are doing the math to see if i am out the door for four from now -- the door years from now. jonathan: tom, t

jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. hoping we don't have to hear someone making, coffee, washing the dishes afterwards. dog comes in. bart, bark. [laughter] the circus of several months ago in casa keene. stiglitz hereeph on "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. house speaker nancy pelosi and treasury secretary steven mnuchin are drawing closer to an agreement on a coronavirus release package. the two will talk again today. the deadline is set for a bill that could pass before election day. senate republicans have been balking at the price tag. president trump and joe biden will be muted at times during thursday's debate. each candidate will have an uninterrupted two minutes to speak at the beginning of each segment. then both microphones will be turned on. during the first debate, president repeatedly interrupted biden, and both candidates talked over the moderator. goldman sachs has reached a long-awaited deal with the justice department over its role in malaysia's 1mdb scandal.

jonathan: what about them? lisa: they are up. jonathan: i'm dying. [laughter] tom keene and lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro. washington looks beautiful. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. boris johnson is warning the u.k. to get ready for a no deal brexit. the british prime minister says he is walking away from the trade talks with the european union. pm johnson: as far as i can see, they have abandoned the idea of a free-trade deal. they don't seem to be any progress coming from brussels. what we are saying to them is only come here, come to us. if there is some fun mental change of approach. otherwise we are more than happy to talk about -- come to us if there is some fundamental change of approach. otherwise we are more than happy to talk about strategies for what i am talking about. ritika: president trump and joe biden were on tv last night at the same time, but on different channels. they held competing televised town halls instead of debating as the schedule originally called for. the president said he kne

jonathan: futures up 15.s is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. stop stop on the week. the s&p 500 up nicely -- stocks up on the week. the s&p up nicely. euro-dollar 1.1798. a firmer euro in the mix. around, dollar all through g10 and against china as well. the chinese currency doing nicely and the chinese authorities tolerated it. that is the headlight overnight for the chinese currency. well,otice the vix as 25.8. the beginning of the week, maybe a week ago, 29. we have come in three or four big figures. you get the vix down, it is a different world. jonathan: implied volatility was elevated to year end on the back of this contested election fear, and a lot of these concerns have faded, relatively speaking. tom: an eventful friday to say the least. what we do on friday on radio and on television is get ready for the weekend reading and get ready for the next week. stephen stanley is an expert. won everyt -- he has trophy. what is the distinction? what is the

jonathan: i have been asking forever.lisa: on twitter, sent him a love note and maybe we can make it happen. [laughter] let's look at the data. 8:30 a.m., we will be getting jobless claims. the expectation is deceleration in the recovery. we expect the number of total filings to come down slightly from last week but still at an incredibly high level and there which stimulus.stions about 9:00 a.m., the senate judiciary committee is voting on a timeframe for confirming amy coney barrett to the supreme court. what they are not talking about getting done before the election, or at least seems to be lacking conviction is getting a support bill through congress. 9:00 p.m., there will be a debate, the final u.s. presidential debate. and we will be talking all about tomorrow.utton jonathan: we will, and i will be using it repeatedly, i am sure. [laughter] tom, at least a mention supreme court confirmation of amy coney barrett. that is where the focus has been in the senate. you get a feeling that the blame game is starting betwee

jonathan: a player out of madrid. tom: so this is like a real game? jonathan: absolutely.here's a really important cultural aspect to this. liverpool has just gone through a locked down. bigger restrictions coming from this government. this saturday morning, they see both sides of that city play each other. the pressure is on for the local broadcasters here in the u.k. to make sure that the people liverpool can watch that game live on tv for free, and i hope they do that because i think that would be a nice gesture. tom: it wouldn't be what you have in america, where even the radio you have to pay for. lisa, his tone just changes when he starts talking about this. lisa:? my understand. but there's a lot -- yes, i understand. but there's a lot going on in the u.s., too. tom: the jets are 0-9. lisa: let's go to london. jon, keep talking. [laughter] jonathan: how are the mets doing? lisa: you brought it up. you wanted to talk about it. jonathan: liz ann sonders coming up from charles schwab. this is bloomberg. ♪ kailey: with the first word news, i'm kailey leinz. president tr

jonathan: the mystery is on output as well. . service sector, much harder to turn that back on. for the goods sector, flip a switch. it got hit hardest in the shutdown. it reopened quicker and bounced back faster, as well. but without the support of consumers, this economy is all linked at the end of the day. let's bring in our next guest. . the 30 year bond. that is an extraordinary move over the last week. 10 year yield, 0.71%. jon has been great about bracketing that at the upper end of the range. -- two-year yield, zero yield, 0.1289%. let's start with that idea, michael cloherty. who has their foot on the two-year yield? michael: the fed does. they suggest that they are going to keep rates low for a long time. i think when you look at the bond market, you want to look at the fed's actions in deeper parts of the curve. that part of the curve is all about what they are going to tell us they are going to do with the policy rate. the back of the curve is qe driven, but the treasury is issuing a lot more at the back of the curve.

good i am jonathan capehart. welcome to "first look," the "washington post's" look at the most pressing news issues of the day. this morning, we are focused on last night's vice presidential debate. as we have on many first look mornings, we are starting with veteran national political editor dan balz. good morning, dan. i read your column this morning on the front page of the "new york post." why not give viewers a -- [laughter] it was a late night and an early morning. my god, what a horrible mistake. i'm so sorry. front page of "the washington post," give viewers a thumbnail of what you wrote today. dan: well, i think that the sum and substance of the debate was that the vice president, mike pence, came armed with the case he wanted to make against joe biden, the democratic party, and kamala harris. but, time and again, it was clear that what undermines the case most significantly is the person he works for, president trump. it was obvious really from the get-go when the discussion focused on the coronavirus p

jonathan: after 2021, maybe beyond. coming up, university of london college professor of political science. to --rofessor group professor gupta, ritika gupta will be joining us. jonathan: i believe it is professor norman. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. there is confusion over how president trump is being treated for the coronavirus. in public, his doctors remain upbeat. one says the president could be released today from the military hospital in maryland, where he has been since friday night. another says the president has been given supplement to oxygen, and he has received medication typically used in more severely ill patients. meanwhile, the president unexpectedly left the hospital to greet supporters in a bid to demonstrate strength. joe biden leads president trump by 14% in the new wall street journal/nbc news poll. the lead is his biggest of the campaign. the polls were taken after tuesday's debate, but before the president was hospitalized for coronavirus. boris johnson

[laughter] jonathan: i am real proud.om: i thought he was going to come out on a speech on the premier league, that they need to have respect for the champions league, all owned by greedy americans. jonathan: maybe we will get a little more on that a little bit later. i think the prime minister has got some pressing issues elsewhere, particularly in the north of the country. on the fiscal talks down in washington, d.c., where do you want to start? it is like the merry-go-round on capitol hill. it just keeps spinning. lisa: i don't understand why people keep trading on every headline. it is not getting done. right now, the problem is the gap between mitch mcconnell and president trump. we will be hearing more about that throughout the day. just to give you a sense of what we are looking for throughout the morning, boris johnson is expected to decide on whether to continue trade negotiations with the european union. i will tell you this, you can talk much more efficiently and adequately about this than i, and i know tom wil

jonathan: that was three weeks ago.rrative, we talked about it a couple of hours ago, it shifted so quickly. two weeks ago it was contested election fears. now is about blue wave. at the start of the year, if i said blue wave, i would've heard market participants saying that would be negative to markets. now it is all about fiscal stimulus and nothing else. tom: a stimulus whether now or in 90 days, i take your point. the journal had a great article, gina martin adams has been way out in front. at the end of the day as it is about earnings and the vector on earnings is to a better world. jonathan: jp morgan numbers just around the corner. tom: is that tomorrow? jonathan: that is tomorrow. looking forward to that. get your hands around some numbers. do you get any guidance? i doubt it. tom: the loan mystery. the pandemic, what will they do in terms of write-downs? i do not understand. i just listened. jonathan: you are selling it. i am really looking forward to it now. lisa: [laughter] jonathan: that is the preview for e

jonathan: do. are so happy about that. , $1.1768.ollar coming up on the program, a conversation you do not want to mess with rudy giuliani, former mayor of new york city. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker, more voluminous hair instantly. all it takes is just one session at hairclub. introducing xtrands. xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. they're personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so they'll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. call right now. (upbeat music) jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. 60 minutes away from the opening bell in new york city. futures up 26 on the s&p 500, advancing .8%. pointeign exchange, one 1767 on euro-dollar. treasuries lower, yields higher. up, around a

jonathan: i was next to you. tom keene, lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro.nd kathy jones is kathy jones. what a performance. tom: loved it. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the chances of congress passing a stimulus package before the election are fading fast. house speaker and a few people of seann treasury secretary steven mnuchin continue to bicker over the details of the almost $2 trillion proposal. meanwhile, resistance from sent republicans is building, and some house democrats are reluctant to come back to washington to vote if the senate won't do so. in europe, governments have started to impose curfews more widely to stop a resurgence of coronavirus. daily virus cases are hitting records across the continent. france reported more than 40,000 new cases for the first time. the u.k. has signed its first major trade deal since brexit. the agreement with japan largely preserves the terms under which the u.k. traded with tokyo as part of the european union. meanwhile, there are signs of progress in trade t

jonathan: you are owning it. i love it.m o'sullivan with us of td securities, who has to sort all of this out. you know from chapter 23 of econ 101, the markets it out front. are the markets signaling a better economy in q1, q2 of next year? jim: good morning, everybody. i would think so. it is hard to say, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of optimism priced into markets. i don't think people expect to see the strength we just saw any third quarter to be repeated going forward, but clearly people are assuming that it is up and pretty solid from here. i would say the risk is that people probably are a little ahead of themselves from that perspective. tom: the recovery is the idea of getting back to the trendline we were on in january or february of this troubled year. how long does it take us to get back to a constructive trendline? is it quarters, or is it years? jim: we would say years. in terms of getting back to the level of gdp we were at the end of 2019, that could well happen during 2022. ,ut of course, in the meant

jonathan: you could.: you do not want to say anyone is tapping the brakes or anything like that. jonathan: ok. this is old school. lisa: is that what we call it? [laughter] tom: i am looking at the ground. automation much better than expected earnings. -- autonation with much better morning. jonathan: we will see you tomorrow morning with initial jobless claims. 870,000 the estimate. tom: i'm so glad you bring this up because we have a debate tomorrow. you have to wrap around the debate, all of this happy talk about apple and amazon. there is another economy off that statistic we see with mike at 8:30 tomorrow. lisa: you don't say? jonathan: one of the themes tomorrow will be american and security and those kind of things. it will not just be about covid-19. we know with the administration this president would like to make this campaign about -- foreign policy. lisa, we have a good idea of where things are headed tomorrow evening in nashville, tennessee. lisa: i think the mute button will be deployed. i a

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a simulcast on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. we welcome all of you in europe and the challenges there, and we will get to you in a moment, and all of you across this nation. it has been week after week at an 800,000 level, even up towards one million a month ago, and the news slow is simply extraordinary. jon, you have been way out front on the distinction between the virus and pandemic on the continent of europe over to the united kingdom, and the difference with the united states. how urgent is it for mr. macron, chancellor merkel, and prime minister johnson? jonathan: becoming more difficult, and the problem they are having is localizing the effort. many people in parts of the country that are facing tougher restrictions are asking, what about everyone else? that is the story in the u.k. as london gets upgraded to a new tier and faces tougher restrictions. as we get deeper into the winter, it is not just about the caseload. i think they are much more keen to emphasize and

jonathan: you are not alone. let's move from the theater of the last 24 hours to the drama of the polls this morning. the former vp joe biden with a widening lead in the cnn poll this morning. it is not a predictor of what will happen, but a snapshot of the mood of this country, and it straddles that covid test that was positive. poll, octoberis 4, very important this morning. tom: i read every word of the polling. a 3.6% margin of error. are thein there subsets on covid to come on the economy, and the rest of the pole. that gap, as they say in the text, is widening from the nbc/"wall street journal" poll of just a few days ago. jonathan: yields this morning on the tenure -- tom: out of control. snoozer: finally, the over in the treasury market. lisa: out of control? jonathan: only one of us is out of control, lisa. [laughter] tom: go to cash. lisa: we are still going to be checking out the data. i am going to take you back 12 months ago, when we cared about trade in the trade deal with china. it: 30 am, we get t

jonathan: thank you very much.ines, it is difficult, particularly in europe given what we are facing october 27th,ly, not november, not december. doesn't look good. reporte: no, a "times" was telling. the airlines are trying to get that business travel back. hedge fund managers, bankers, will they be able to travel? that is a question to u.k. is discussing and airlines, hoping it might happen. jonathan: four minutes away, equity futures bounce back a little. the cash open, right here on bloomberg tv. ♪ jonathan: 60 seconds from the cash open in london this tuesday morning. european policymakers, short on options facing lockdown results. attention to earnings after an ugly start to the week and in washington, america's election wrapping up a week from today. let's get to it. equity futures, bouncing back at a mild bounce back into the cash open. futures, up 15 on euro stoxx 50 futures, up .5%. ftse, up one third of 1%. , up 77 this morning, up .7% but the story of the week, virus, picking up across europe, case coun

jonathan: of course they do.f people aren't coming into london, coming into new york, if those offices aren't full, if people aren't working and those hubs come of the peripheral businesses that support them aren't getting business either. that is how these things spiral very quickly. on the airlines, i've got skin in the game. clearly, i'm in london, you are in new york, and we are trying to get me back. the hub in london is really important, and it is barely functioning right now. they need to sort out testing at the airports over new york and in london, as well, and they still haven't got it done. other countries around the world are getting it done. it is not just about throwing money to bail them out. it is about getting planes in the sky and helping getting them back to work. tom: on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television right now, we are going to bring in two short people on the economy. tom porcelli is with rbc capital markets. he has done a found model job of not only linking labor trends assuage dyna

laura: thanks, jonathan.ng down for at least one month, the harshest crackdown they have seen yet. europe's two biggest economies will shut down restaurants and nonessential services. schools and businesses will remain open. the u.s. supreme court has dealt two blows to republicans over deadline for mail-in ballots. it concerns a six-day extension in north carolina, meaning votes can be perceived as late as november 12. it has also received a fast-track an appeal. amy coney barrett will not take case.in either the bank of japan's has seen a contraction this year, a drop of 5.5 percent. they made a recovery in the services sector and an unclear outlook of the economy. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie, jon? jonathan: laura wright, thank you very much. up next, we catch up with the shell ceo ben van beurden. ahead of that, price action, 21 minutes before the opening bell. thi

jonathan: well, the u.k.s been interesting because if you go to the beginning of the year, you have the bank of england telling lender value, we think you are lending too much and the virus struck. because of the pent-up demand, prices have shot up since then and the lenders have come back from 95% and have come on to 75%. that all makes sense because they are looking at values and say we don't trust this market. the other problem is you have a huge makes in the people who are trying to take advantage of the holiday. make theot going to march deadline, so not surprising. it is something we have written a lot about over the past six months. i would almost say they are a little late to the party because we have seen rates gone up across value buckets over six to eight weeks. jonathan: we see rates go up before and we've still seen housing bubbles expand. not for me to say this is one, but i want to jump from your perspective looking at the financials. is there financial stability stored up here going into sprin

jonathan: huge amount of pressure. typically what the ecb likes to do is produce something new when they produce the new forecast. new forecasts don't come until december. i think it is inevitable those have to be downgraded. it is up to the ecb whether they want to get in front of that. most people will tell you know. i think there is still huge pressure on president lagarde to make sure financial conditions in europe stay loose as we enter a really tough path of q4. tom: why don't we bring in evan brown here? he's been patient with this terrific newsletter. jonathan: very patient. evan brown, ubs asset management head of multi-asset strategy. great to catch up with you. do you think the risk-reward in european equities is starting to skew a little bit more towards reward, given the selloff? evan: i do think so, yes. there is no question that europe is facing a lot of headwinds. we are repricing the growth outlook, and that is problematic. at the same time, when we look out, i think what we are going to see is positiv

jonathan: what, four and a half years? tom: yeah. [laughter] jonathan: i hope not. you hope not, too. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- has been sworn in as a justice of the supreme court. required of two oath's was administered not long after she was confirmed. chief justice john roberts will administer the second oath today at the court. her confirmation solidifies a conservative 6-3 majority. the record coronavirus surge that started with young americans has now reached the oldest populations. according to the cdc, counties with the largest 65 and older populations now have an average 19 daily cases per 100,000 residents. that is 67% higher than a month ago. china ramped up its purchases of american goods last month. still, it is far from the full-year target set out under phase one of the trade deal with the u.s.. the chinese bought more american oil, soybeans, and cars. with three months to go in the year, beijing is a little more than 1/3 of the way to the goal of $170 billion in u.s. imports. in the u.k., prime minister boris johnson faces a revolt from more than 50 nu

jonathan: not me, but i think other people might make that link. i think if you want to make that inconsistency an because treasury yields climbed. if you think all of this stimulus was going to drive yields higher, then stimulus talks pulling apart would mean lower yields, higher yields. i think the temptation is to take every single piece of price action and draw a line back down to d.c. from wall street. israelcretary mnuchin in for the important siding of the united arab emirates, israel, and united states of america. he will have a call with pelosi. pelosi is going to be briefed by westin later on bloomberg. lisa: i am trying to understand mitch mcconnell's role in all of this. what kind of agreement will pelosi come to with mnuchin that will actually pass? it is not passing in the senate. it is coming to some sort of understanding. chance is, i don't know. i just don't feel like it is not likely at this point given how close we are. tom: we welcome you across the nation on bloomberg radio

jonathan: i agree.om: this is really important. 20 years ago, this was done by smoke signals and semaphore flags, and there was a golden period with michael bloomberg and tom secunda on the bloomberg terminal, where this stuff was put out an english, clearly. earnings to earnings, company to company. all of that changed three years ago with technology, and now you have to be a cyber expert like sonali basak to get anything within two to three minutes of the suppose it release. it is way harder now. jonathan: you can stop. take a breath. [laughter] let's make it really simple. in a word, stabilized. that was the word mike corbat used. tom: you want me stabilized? jonathan: i would love to see that. [laughter] that word, stabilized, the provisions for loan losses look built, and it looks like the situation has stabilized. the numbers are expected to be a lot bigger than they are this morning. i think that is a positive point and for bankciti, of america later this week, that will be one to watch. the chal

jonathan: ruth? ruth: i am completely praying for boring but that is not going to be a boring supreme court. think aing to be i conservative leaning and potentially quite energetically so supreme court. and i think -- i think the democrats did a little bit of a better job in the questioning about stare decisis. block --oal to try to to block her nomination? that is not going to happen. what are the best politics for us. hugh and i agree that i don't think the affordable care act is in jeopardy of being entirely dismantled. i do think that as a political matter, trying to scare voters that that is going to happen was not at all a bad strategy on the part of democrats who had a losing hand to play. i know you can go back and forth on this all day. literally all day. we don't have all day and we are out of time. hugh, washington post editor and author of "supreme ambitions." ruth, thank you for coming on today. thanks, guys. have a great day. thank you for watching "washington post live." we will be bac

jonathan: wejonathan:. -- jonathan: we know what ben is going to say. he's going to say buy. let's bring even, been late -- let's bring him in, ben laidler. why? talki think all of this about fiscal stimulus has held people back. we are waiting for a vaccine. we don't have that yet. let's get the election out of the way, and look forward. what does that look like? get 25% earnings growth and these deep cyclical stocks that have basically been ignored, those are the big beneficiaries of the vaccine, which we are going to get something, some more fiscal stimulus, biden wins these area blue wave, the sectors of the market chair out of favor and have huge operating leverage to the base case scenario, and it hasn't really moved yet because i think people have been very distracted by the fiscal talk and the election and everything else. tom: the challenge of people trying to catch up with ben laidler is on an absolute and relative basis do you shift. do you shift away from big tech completely, or do you do both together and still owned both areas? downi think you bring those sort o

jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance."his is what the equity market looks like this friday morning. good morning to you all. we are shaping up as follows. i might be sleep deprived. [laughter] lisa: you're doing great. jonathan: the more you are deprived of sleep, the more it sounds like you might be drunk. i am not. equity futures down 33, -1%. on the fx market, euro-dollar $1.1675. in the bond market, the yield unchanged. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: almost the end of the month. huge week ahead. an election, a fed decision, payrolls friday just round the corner. here is your equity market. 31 going into economic data in the united states of america which means michael mckee is back with us. let's get to the numbers. michael: we are waiting for personal income and spending. a pretty good idea of what they're going to be because they were included in the gdp report yesterday. we are waiting for the data. we are also waiting for the employment cost index, which has also not popped up on the screen. everyone now releases e

jonathan: the italian bond market. i know that feels a bit off the beaten road, but right now rallying aggressively over the less capital weeks. look at the spread of btp's to german debt at the moment. it is about 20 basis point. that was about 280 earlier in the year. that is one to watch in the debt markets. tom: bond price up, yield down. what is the why? is it a flight to quality? jonathan: reduced redenomination risk, i am not sure we are completely there yet where we can say that this market now trades like a proper sovereign. what that means, we used to question how long some of these countries would play into the euro zone. the risk of redenomination, moving out of the euro and being repriced in a different currency. the fiscal backstop of a couple of months ago, even though it has not been fully implement it, i think that gave people some confidence that we have that -- we have have at least taken a step forward. 21 of just see, from day the election today 20 today, boy, did it heat u

jonathan: 1.1723. surprised how resilient it has been until the last 24 hours given the direction of travel the continent was on. here is the break this morning. with a broader dollar bid. we have been looking at the italian bond market and we can all agree the jury is still out as to whether this has transformed from behaving like a credit to a sovereign. they are lower today, italian bonds are softer, yields are higher by five or six basis points. it is not dramatic, but the move is there, whether we can break the positive correlation between the single princi and the periphery. currencyn the single and the periphery. i think the move is starting to emerge, just slowly as the session grows older, might be making some people nervous. what is your take? jane: there are doubts emerging. we did have headlines suggesting protests in rome about the restrictions. if we look back over the spring in the summer about what drove the euro higher, there is more confidence about the ecb policy. ofwe go to the seco

jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: equity futures positive. jobless claims just second away. from new york and london, good morning to all. with your economic data, here is michael mckee. michael: good morning. looking at initial jobless claims a little bit lower than forecast. these are the seasonally adjusted numbers. they change the way they calculated it. -- last week.onth a big decline. 850,000 was the forecast. the number we really want to see to get a better, more accurate description of what is happening with unemployment claims is nonseasonally adjusted. 786,842 from 827 205. the headline number from the seasonally adjusted is a decline of 36,000. good news in both cases. pandemic employment assurance insistence -- insurance assistance, the stuff put in place by the cares act, that rises by 35,000 to 650,000. still issues with that according ,o the analyst who look at this whether it is completely accurate. the number of people getting 485,000 toes up by 26,529,000. what you would say about this report is it status quo. awful lotll se

jonathan: you know how it is going to go.ailwind from the fiscal package, can you walk us through how much is left in the tank now so many of those programs have expired? michael: we do have significant savings, but people are spending them down. the spending numbers seem to suggest we have seen a slowdown. if you look at the gdp by a month-to-month basis, it was big in may and june and then started to tell off as august and september were slower. october looks to be the same story. at this point, the consensus has been for 3% to 4% growth in the fourth quarter, and that is on an annualized basis as opposed to 33.1%. a significant slowing in the fourth quarter. what you want to look at to answer lisa's question is the level of gdp at this point is higher than it was, but not up to where we were. it will be a question for the next president to figure out how to get us back to where we started from. with twoael mckee important reports before the election. right now we will digress and moved to david leibowitz of j.p. morgan ass

jonathan: very successful. started in the netherlands. tom: julie chen. jonathan: very cool. would love to see you on "big brother." that would be great. lisa: look at those markets. jonathan: look at those markets. [laughter] wieting ofsteve citi. this is bloomberg. tom: good morning. with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the chances of congress passing pre-election stimulus are all but gone. treasury secretary steven mnuchin is blaming politics, saying democrats don't want to give president trump something to brag about in his campaign. democrats say the white house never took the need for another stimulus seriously enough to push for compromise. senate democrats are all but powerless to keep amy coney barrett off the supreme court, so they used their final day of questioning at the confirmation hearing to grill her about statements made by president trump. barrett declined to answer whether the president has the right to delay the election and an absolute right to pardon himself. another sign of the impact of the coronavirus on education. there has been a sharp decli

jonathan: bob, great to catch up, sir. the president of the united states active on twitter in the last hour. here's one of them. a tweet on flu season coming up. i will wait just a part of it. "are we going to close down our country? no. we have learned to live with it, just like we are learning to live with covid, and most populations far less lethal." let's put this together with the pole we had from cnn just a few hours ago. what was interesting is that the president was not losing ground that he was holding to joe biden. joe biden was taking it from elsewhere. what is intriguing is that to support the president is not gaining from new areas that he needs to tap into. i think comments like that resonate with this base. they won't resonate with the areas of the demographic elsewhere that he needs to be tapping into and needs to be winning. tom: this is a good, important observation. what i was suggest in the conversations we are having on radio and tv, it is simple. all of the experts are telling us he is just simply go

jonathan: we can hear you, dean. dean: when we look at volatility, we can look at it across strike and across time. when we look across time, that thing you say, this called the volatility term structure. october,ok at november, december. because this has been on the calendar for months, the market has differentiated, sometimes options andtween volatility that expires before the election, with the premise that the election would create a potential he significant move in the s&p in and around the data itself, so the outcome would result in a lot of volatility in the s&p. the second one is that the market, at least as of a couple of weeks ago, started to think that this notion of a contested election would lead to volatility on an ongoing basis, so we started to see longer dated vix futures that expire in december and january also bid up quite a bit. it has been interesting. tom: a clinic there on the vix. he will continue with us through this important our on the game theory of volatility and how it folds into futures

on jonathan ferro.is bloomberg. ♪ is goinggain, michigan to answer the call of history and show the world sleepy joe dark money donors and corrupt special interests -- and by the way, there's never been anything like this. >> so much pain, so much suffering, so much loss in america. americans225,000 dead because of covid-19. 7800 right here in georgia. >> on november 4, you'll here we are doing extremely well. you'll see. they used to say europe, look at europe, look at europe. first of all, they count their cases totally differently but look at europe. they have a big spike and it is going to go down, and we had a spike in miami, we had a spike in texas, arizona. it is down to low numbers. >> everybody knows who donald trump is. let's show him who we are. we choose hope over fear, unity over division, science over fiction, and yes, truth overlies -- over lies. jonathan: making their final pitch to voters. six days to go, 70 million americans have voted. by this time next week, we might know who the nex

gotta jonathan:. headline -- jonathan: got to do a couple of things here.ing this, morgan stanley to buy eaton vance for $7 billion in equity value. we will reach out to our correspondent sonali basak in just a few minutes. just to return to this, if it was difficult to moderate the last debate, how difficult will it be with the two candidates somewhere else? kevin: i think it raises a lot of questions in terms of how do you moderate a debate in a split screen, at a time in which, during the first debate, there were clearly questions about the participants speaking over one another and not sticking to the rules that both of the campaigns had agreed to. it was clearly a strategy. so no doubt, this will be dissected every which way. i think you could have a situation where you have one participant at a headquarters and another participant in florida. i don't want to speculate, but based upon my reporting, it is being considered that these two individuals are still planning to travel. joe biden will be in arizona today was senator harris. so this is both a sig

jonathan: they have said that repeatedly. i think kevin is right not to delve too deep into the realm of speculation. the key difference is that the prime minister, for a while, actually carried on working from his office. it was only a couple of weeks later that he deteriorated. i don't think you can guess what is going to happen in the next couple of weeks. what we do know is the president will be quarantining. what that means is he won't be able to go on the campaign trail where he had planned over the next week. what does this mean for the campaign? what does this mean for the price action in the fiscal talks? lisa was right to bring up the other people in the administration, have they been tested. the likes of secretary mnuchin, white house chief of staff mark meadows. the people that have been negotiating with nancy pelosi. for that reason, this market does not know what to do with this. joining us now, subadra rajappa, socgen head of u.s. race strategy. your initial thoughts this morning, please. subadra: i am quite su

jonathan: the present will be on fox news. i imagine he will have a reaction to the next debate being virtual. that news out from the commission on presidential debates. tom: i really want to bring up this story, below the fold on the internet sites, but our jennifer jacobs reporting that the head of security for the white house is gravely ill with this horrific virus. really a difficult illness as well. it is amazing how this virus story in the debate last night, commenting ondent this debate. jonathan: the president tweeting, saying that this is not a separable. he is looking forward to doing rallies. he is feeling goods. those comments coming through in the last 60 seconds. tom: we will monitor that as we look at finance and investment around the world. so much of that is the hope of stimulus. futures up 15. dow futures up 200. we are roughly 3% below record highs on the dow. frankly, it devolves to speaker pelosi and her conversation in hours with david westin. lisa: there's an increasing amount of uncertainty, messiness.

jonathan: you absolute well. ruth: you suggested that it was the format that was the -- not the best for president trump. that may be but i actually thought he did fine with voters. prettyht he seemed responsive and empathetic to them. i thought where he was really tripped up was with savanna inquisition. i think it inquisition is a good thing. that's what we as journalists do. she asked fair questions and when he didn't answer them, she kept on asking them. that artt of flubs in of the opening which is why the white house advisors and campaign advisors were so concerned about the opening is his comments, his continuing refusal to answer questions about when he last tested negative before he tested positive. maskssstatements about and his continuing refusal to do the presidential thing and exhort people to do the safe thing and to wear masks. his answer on his taxes and his acknowledgment that he owes $400 million to god knows who and god knows and the irs know so we the american public don't know. he cleaned up

jonathan, annmarie? jonathan: thank you very much. coming up, an exclusive conversation with governor of the austrian central bank robert holtzman following a news conference that is taking up more stimulus. futures negative, up to four days of losses on the euro stoxx 50. we shave another 58 points off that benchmark, down 1.3% this morning. good morning. not much of one if you are long. this is bloomberg. ♪ greater china is the region most heavily impacted by the absence of the new iphones during the september quarter. still, we beat our internal expectations in the region, growing non-iphone revenues strong double-digit and iphone customer demand grew through mid-september. jonathan: that was apple ceo tim cook on the call yesterday afternoon. again, and weop drop lower. nasdaq 100 futures down by 2%. four days of losses on the euro stoxx 50. is it about to become five early this morning? about 45 minutes away from the opening bell. i want to bring in dani burger for more on this. the outlook, they just could not give us one, could