jonathan: it does.about the curve flattening through next year, and it is probably -- it is pretty early for this kind of stuff. tom: this is the most wacko august i've ever seen. august is always nuts. let's be honest. jonathan: we are on the second, and is already the most wacko tom has ever seen. it is september that is so pivotal for so many of the debates happening on wall street and beyond. lisa, you have made that point as well. lisa: the idea that you are talking about the flattening yield curve highlights the uncertainty around not only the data, but the response to the data. we get a lower yield on the 10 year if we get in a credible jobs number? what is the reaction function in markets? jonathan: you can call the data right. can you get the market move in response to the data right? that's been harder over the last few months. in your fx market, euro-dollar $1.1889, advancing 0.2%. on the s&p, we advanced 20 points. a nice little lift as we kick off, what did you call it, tom, the wackiest mo

jonathan: in what way?: in what we are going to be looking for, given the slow down in the economic data and given this international shock. jonathan: well, it is operation do no harm. it has to be. this is an extreme example. that was a central bank that wanted to tighten monetary policy. just like that, the day before the meeting, the prime minister institutes a three-day lockdown. that is how quickly things can change. do you remember chairman powell talked about being in a dark room, and when you are in a dark room, you've got to move more carefully? i think that is the environment they are still in. they are in a very dark room looking into next year, at a time when there's a lot of price pressure pushing them to move quickly. tom: just the basic idea means we have to provide clarity, and i am pleased to announce that when you go west and you think of the tumbling tumbleweeds of jackson hole, you think of roy and dale, which is before your time. that would be roy rogers and dale evans. you look at that

, i'm jonathan ferro.come on tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: united airlines says workers must get vaccinated against coronavirus, the first major u.s. carrier to impose the mandate. united says employees must upload their injection record through a company database no more than -- to discuss final changes to the bill, which is 2700 pages long. it faces an uncertain future in the house. there are growing signs that the coronavirus delta variant risks slowing the pace of the u.s. economic recovery. even slick new york auto show were being -- events like the new york auto show are being canceled due to the delta variant. bloomberg has learned china's didi global may give up control of its most valuable data, part of an asset to resolve a chinese regulatory throw into the aftermaths of its proposal in the u.s.. byron truck is a billionaire banker, according to the bloomberg billionaires index. founder of capital partners is worth about $3 billion. the fund manages about $26 billion and it has taken to -- and h

jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. good monday morning.berg. ♪ >> we are looking for a pretty significant deceleration as we go into 2022. >> is going to be strong, does not as strong as the first have. >> i think you could potentially see some more bumpy nest. -- more bumpiness. >> you could get some very high inflation readings in the near term. >> i think it will ultimately create a stronger dollar. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: that's get the week started. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 14 points, up 0.3%, pushing ahead to payrolls friday. tom: into august and into that jobs report, it is a linkage of our economic leaf

jonathan: your 10-year, 1.1954. lisa: the theme of the day, in my opinion, is a continuation of what we have been seeing, supply chain disruptions. how much that is going to click growth in an ongoing basis. factory orders and durable goods orders -- es, the demand is there. are the supplies there? we are not seeing it the same way. how much are prices increasing, how much our factories competing with goods and labor to get those goods in their doors? throughout the day, this is the other aspect of the story. total vehicle sales trickling out. here we are going to see also supply chain disruptions, and frankly also chip shortages between hertz and bmw overnight. these are all things adding to an outlook that is highly uncertain for automakers. even though you had incredible demand and in currently high prices for cars. for anyone who can drive, they can go and see how expensive some of these cars have gotten. 3:45 p.m., resident biden is expected to speak on covid-19, the progress of vaccination in the united states

jonathan: equity markets unchanged. city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. 30 minutes until the opening bell. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. another wave of supply constraints. >> supply constraints. >> supply bottlenecks. >> supply chain issues. >> they are not going to go away for a few more years. >> interest rates are tight. >> at the same time we have the emergence of the delta variant. >> the amount is not being satisfied. >> it is easy to see why prices are rising. >> the key point is that central

jonathan: lisa, final word?isa: the focus for me is should we be looking at the carrots or the sticks. at what point do you start mandating things? that is where the focus of gravity is right now among governments and businesses. jonathan: equity futures down for. where is the show going -- down four. where is the show going? yields come in almost a basis point. tom: look at the real yield, jon. jonathan: let's go there. i can freestyle with you. that's get it up on the bloomberg terminal right now. -1.21% on reals. citi looking for a 70 basis point move the other way. what would that do to this market? tom: turn it on its head. there's no question, it's a bold call. maybe that's what this time of year is. it is a time for bold calls. jonathan: maybe. lisa: let's bring it forward to what we are looking at today. this ties into the debate, which is how much dynamism there is to the economic recovery. it really all hinges with jobs. that's what market participants are looking at. the adp report not necessarily ind

jonathan: where?ina, there's a very different vaccine that most studies indicate do not stand up to this in the same way the rna -- the mrna vaccine. tom: the only way we are going to solve it is high use of mrna vaccines. they got to go globally. it is going to take time. jonathan: do we have a synchronized think up in a global economy? right now, i don't think so. lisa: i just want to bring you this headline that cfa slumped to a record low because pandemic studying is nonexistent we have been getting all of these cfa results, and they're just pandemic low, post-pandemic low, record low. maybe you are going to say that the education is insufficient, but i think it is really hard. tom: why was this any different than a second grader or eighth grader or 11th grader? i think it is exactly the same, the stresses of the pandemic. lisa: how hard it is to focus, get feedback, doing it remotely. jonathan: did you work hard from home? it was great, wasn't it? lisa: my favorite part was trying to focus on wha

jonathan: patrick, get to catch up.longside him, jonathan golub leading that pain, looking for 5000 on the s&p year end next year. the s&p right now off by 0.1%. crude lower by of the -- by a little more than 1%. jake sullivan, the national security advisor, saying opec+ production boosts have not been enough. they go on to say that opec+ must do more to support the recovery. lisa: do you think they are just going to say, ok, i guess we will? and by the way, you guys are doing nothing to support your shale producers or perhaps even pushing back a little bit right now because you want to get to some sort of greener future. i am just trying to square the message from the democrats as they tried to both email you rate the price pressures while also cater to the messaging -- both in miller rate -- both emel iorate the price pressures while also cater to the messaging. jonathan: i think lisa explained it pretty well politically. that is just not a good story. tom: i am baffled by this, and the person that emailed, we have 42

jonathan: -- the fed coin based on? jonathan: no idea. tom: are you kidding me?onathan: are you that upset about it? tom: i thing it is nuts. lisa: i think it is the idea of why should there be a bank that is the intermediary between the government and individuals. why not have a central depositary? this has been a very controversial issue for financial institutions. jonathan: are you two in an argument right now? i can't tell. tom: it's a marriage, jon. what can i say? [laughter] jonathan: approaching $1.40 on the pound against the u.s. dollar, $1.3944. the bank of england sees modest tightening over the forecast period is likely necessary. we will hear from governor bailey in about 55 minutes or so. we want to bring you gene tannuzzo, the columbia threadneedle global head of fixed income. let's work through this bond market. real yields were negative through 1.20% yesterday. can you get your head around that? gene: looking at where the fed has placed interest rates at this point in time, but we have seen in the last month is that. i have started to disappoint r

alongside tom keene and jonathan abramowitz, i'm jonathan ferro.r equity market on s&p 500 down three. all-time highs into wednesday. we are down 0.06% on futures. citi, looking for a move to 2% through 2022. euro-dollar, we are down about 0.04%. some news out of beijing on to touch. beijing subway to restrict traffic from thursday to control the head -- the spread of the delta variant in china. we have seen more than 40 cities restrict travel across china. there restrict travel to control the virus and banks are starting to cut the outlook. cutting third-quarter growth projections to 5.1%. seeing a 4.4% expansion in the final three months down from 5.3%. these are still big numbers but the change here, tom. tom: anything quarter to quarter under 6% always gets the attention. china's 3% recession, we are not there yet. anything under 6% to gives pause to say the least. there's too much to talk about, finance, investment, international relations. and the fact that the democrats are going to lose the house. the democrats have been told by their leade

jonathan: always good to hear from you. anna han, wells fargo equity strategist, looking for 3850 on the house and p 500, once again framing out the story all the way through to 4700 on this program over the last couple of hours. tom: it is healthy to see this. in the dead of summer, maybe that is what you see, but this isn't a normal summer. we will maybe hear from vice-chairman clarida that they are beyond data-dependent. he will phrase that in his own elegant way, but they are hanging on every data point. jonathan: how close will vice chair clarida's speech be to but we heard from governor brainerd? lisa: it means perhaps he's aligning himself with someone he sees as being the next fed chair. jonathan: you went straight to the politics. i was going to the markets, but carry on. lisa: the idea is where is the balance of weight. we were talking about the big three, clarida, john williams, and chair powell. does lael brainard become one of the big three? jonathan: that is why the speech yesterday, it was quite interesting t

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro.s is bloomberg "real yield." it is time for the final spread. coming up, that officials speaking. i bet you can't wait. the u.s. treasury offering nearly $130 billion in the 30 year paper throughout the week. ppi and initial jobless claims on thursday. finally, watch out for a senate infrastructure vote coming potentially as soon as tomorrow. with final thoughts, frances donald, michael kushma, mark cabana still with us. what are you looking for next week in that inflation number? frances: i just want to see if it is supply slide -- supply-side driven. if the fed cannot fix it with rate hikes to the same extent it is demand-side. what is the trend there? supply versus demand, that is the key for me. jonathan: michael kushma, your take? michael: very similar. transitory versus permanent. what is the mix? we are not going to know for a while. we may not know until after september and access unemployment benefits roll off and back to school, back to work my that transpires. we are already

jonathan: couldn't agree more. the title of goldman's downgrade was not related to fed tapering, not related to an increase of tightening. it was on the impact of covid in q3 and q4. tom: we've got a lot of other people coming up as well on that. and lately -- ben laidler, hugely bullish. what i wonder is at jackson hole, should they rip up the script, and on the lawn with those lovely white tents for the saturday lunch, should the head of the cdc speak to the economists? jonathan: i imagine they are going to be talking about that themselves because this is as much about the pandemic as it is about anything else, and it is as much about china as it is about the federal reserve. lisa: which raises the question about that fourth-quarter projection from goldman sachs, basically this idea that we can get production back online by the fourth quarter. can we? how do we have that certainty? can we hire enough workers to do that? what is the situation over in china? what is the tolerance level for each case of covid thicke

jonathan: from new york city, good morning. i'm jonathan ferro.ce action this friday morning, equity market come all time highs. yields are higher, lower by couple of basis points. euro advancing a little more than attentive 1%. that is the price action. the latest out of washington, tom. nine moderate democrats have worn speaker pelosi they won't vote for the budget resolution and this infrastructure is passed first. things getting a little more complex in washington. tom: when the facts change, they change and we change and emily wilkins changes. yesterday the facts changed with an absolutely stunning census 2020 that showed all of the experts wrong. the one that got it right is emily wilkins. let's start with iowa. is this heaven? no, it must be iowa. des moines boomed. phoenix, larger than philadelphia. new york city gaining over 600,000 people. nobody except michael bloomberg predicted that, former mayor and also a member of this platform. how did your world change with the 2020 census? emily: in washington, we already got the big news a few

jonathan: love this quote. "the extent to which treasuries will be driven by the fundamentals is as much of an unknown as the actual data itself at this stage." that's the problem, isn't it? lisa h: that's absolutely right. that is why that fundamental divergence i mentioned, when you look at a model over 10 years should be and where they are today is probably as wide a cap as it has been. when you look over long-term, more structurally, those do tend to converge. that doesn't mean tens go right to the fair value model, but it does mean we start to see 10 years drift higher in the next few months. jonathan: always enjoyed catching up with you. send our best to the team. just to reiterate and repeat that line from bmo strategist ian lyngen, than of the road to clients, "the extent to which treasuries will be driven by the fundamentals is as much of an unknown as the actual data itself at this stage. " that is a big issue for everybody in this market. tom: david rosenberg publishing moments ago the same idea. he

jonathan: down 35, it's brutal. tom: there we go. jonathan: down futures down, too. ridiculous.maine bostick with some movers for you. romaine: good morning. retail sales in about an hour. here's your set up. walmart out with earnings area -- out with earnings. comp sales beat the street, which was looking for 3.1%. the company guided to about 6% on the full year. some concerns about e-commerce sales, down from the previous quarter. more importantly, the contribution of e-commerce sales to overall same-store sales growth was only 0.2%. that seems to be where some of the concern is. that's why some of the shares might be down in the premarket. we should point out that cash from operating activities dropped to about $12.4 billion, down from about $19 billion in the year prior. target reports tomorrow. those shares are slightly higher. the dynamics they are slightly different. target shares also higher, but we should point out the there is light. home depot, 140 $4 billion in annual sales. for the quarter, a bit of a disappointment. the company did post a profit, but it came in sli

jonathan: tom: to what degree -- jonathan: i wanted to a degree those buybacks were delayed into this year. brian: absolutely. jonathan: that has to be an issue going forward. how can we take this year's data that we just had. lisa: after a year like last year. they borrowed all this money and they are using some of that to do the share of buybacks. the fact we can just go right back to our old plans with a huge gap in the middle. jonathan: the deck piles of some of these companies have lowered rates, leverage ratios are moving in the right direction. lisa: right now we are seeing that in the investment rate. it's a little bit different. brian: for the most part these businesses are borrowing this money at very low interest rates. you are not looking at a wall of maturity, you are not looking at a very onerous interest burden. it's similar to households that refinance. you take advantage of these opportunities when they come to you. tom: it tells you a lot about use of cash. i don't need to pick on amazon other than their cap expert 2019 was the last normal year, something on the orde

jonathan: september 3.ot another payrolls report to get through before we have got a clear runway, a clear path. tom: yeah, yeah. right now, one of the inventors of our front line -- advantages of our front-line houses here at bloomberg, of course j.p. morgan, we talked to bruce kasman, he is ok, but he gets to wake up every day and talk to jesse edgerton and peter mccoy with parts from m.i.t. in berkeley. that is pretty cool. they have a tour de force with cosman on brent -- kasman on rent. when you sit down with edgerton and mccoy, what did you learn about rent in america? bruce: well, i think the story there is an addition to the underlying pressure from the pandemic recovery, there is a relative mismatch in where the supply is, and that we should respect -- expect rental price inflation to be a pressure point for some time to come, even after the temporary forces around the pandemic that began to fade. so there is a pressure here that goes well into 2022 and maybe even on inflation coming from rental pr

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro. still much more to come.loomberg. ♪ >> a lot of the market is already corrected. >> this feels more like coming down from stimulus payments then it does reflect invariant fears. >> this is going to be ash reflecting variant -- reflecting variant fears. >> this is going to be a boost in productivity for the next two to three years. >> the biggest disagreement on wall street, is it september, is it december, guess what? it doesn't really matter. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a low conviction market. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p after yesterday's major drawdown, down 0.7%.

jonathan: mike mckee, thank you. ism services print coming up at 10:00 eastern, alongside that speech from vice chair clarida. he has licensed this morning to basically say whatever he wants because this will be on outcomes, outlooks, and prospects for u.s. technology. tom: i am going to respectfully suggest that with his academics, this is a guy that is going to frame what ex post means, the new data come away for the data, weight. maybe we'll talk about this framework. jonathan: we haven't heard from him in a speech at least since may. i think that is important. how do you clear the narrative away from what we have heard from the lexapro below dark -- from president bullard, which made some noise over the past month? lisa: i would agree as well. i am looking at this data and looking at the market reaction, and wondering whether basically this pushes the potential taper to january. how many jobs reports does the fed need to see before they are comfortable tapering rates and tapering their bond purchases? if we get a

, i'm jonathan ferro.e's the price action going into retail sales 12 minutes away in america. michael mckee will break that down for you in just a moment. we are down about 20 on the s&p, we declined by about 0.4%. yields are lower by four basis points to 1.2250%. euro-dollar negative 0.2%. crude, $66.67. tom: good to take that over the commodity complex as a whole. we don't do that enough. right now on the politics of the moment, this is the perfect guest to do this with, terry haines is the pangea policy founder. we had to go out and find somebody as jaded as we can find within the beltway, and we hit the ball out of the park. i want to go back 306 he five days, times 10, plus another 38 days, where president obama took 650 soldiers out of afghanistan long ago and far away. i believe the all in number at the time was 110,000. we can say that three presidents have said we got to exit. biden, trump, and obama. there's thoughts and there's prayers for this horrific moment, but there's also a common ground t

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live form new york city, i'm jonathan ferro.g up, jay powell set to speak at a town hall. fomc out on wednesday a 20 year treasury auction and more fed speak from the dallas fed president. final thoughts, victoria, what are you looking for in the chairman next week at the town hall before we get the speeds -- speech at jackson hole? victoria: i am not looking for a lot. i think he will look at the story that he thinks inflation continues to be transitory and you might say they are on track for substantial progress. i don't think it will be next week, the meeting will be an interesting one because we will have the jobs report which i think will be maybe a downside surprise for most people. victoria -- jonathan: victoria says we can skip it. rapidfire. jackson hole, do you take a vacation or stand and watch this play out? gene: get your popcorn. we need to learn or about further progress. victoria: take a vacation. tony: i think you can take a vacation. jonathan: i am taking a vacation. september taper announcement, november or de

jonathan: all-time highs into monday. the one relevant question we need to ask for our audience repeatedly is whether this overwhelms the domestic policy objectives of this administration, whether they become increasingly distracted by the crisis abroad. that is the number one question. there were big spending plans coming together. the attention now is firmly elsewhere. tom: your thoughts on the changes in washington as we go through monday lisa:? lisa:it is a credibility issue because of bidens words of what would happen versus what did happen. much credibility does he have at a time of great uncertainty with the domestic economy. tom: the debate right now is when will the president speak to the nation. lisa: we have heard he is planning to speak in the next couple of days. he is trying to parse through all of the information. how soon he needs to speak, what does he need to say. a lot of the public support has been behind withdrawing troops support. how much will he let these images pass and let it clear before he give

jonathan: we talk about this a lot.ver the last decade, we've gone from china exports and disinflation to china's issues importing real inflation. tom: i will go with that, i'm looking at the blunt instrument of nominal gdp onto what we do on the income statement of corporations. jonathan: coming up on the program, we will get into the conversation on foreign, futures down 10. yields are unchanged. this program goes down to washington, d.c. next, from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the taliban are taking control of afghanistan two decades after they were ruling the area. the afghan president led the country in chaos reigned at kabul's international airport. thousands of people look to it -- exit the country. people try to forcibly enter planes that were departing. the death toll from the massive earthquake in haiti is almost 30 -- is a was 1300. it flattened homes and businesses in the u.s. deployed search and rescue teams to help find survivors trapped in the rubble. aftershocks will hit haiti today. more ameri

jonathan: good morning. we have had all-time high after all time high on the s&p, coming into monday. we are -.2%. yields unchanged, a big change for treasuries on friday. the fx market, euro-dollar, euro negative, 1.1782. lisa: today is a light day on economic data. fed chair jay powell -- 88:30 am, we will be getting an interesting high-frequency indicator when it comes to the delta variant of covid and the potential ramifications on the recovery. we have a manufacturing survey coming out. we have seen serious concerns from employers, trying to hire enough people. how much is that in impeding costs going up as well as production going down? today new york city will become the first major u.s. city to require proof of vaccinations, a test of first of all putting restaurants on the front line, and second of all having something -- as the delta variant picks up. at 4:00 p.m., you talk about treasury yields, the fact that they have this consistent bid on the margins. this is something that has confounded a lot

jonathan: thank you.willingness to keep looking through at pf romaine bostick -- looking through it. remain bostick a little -- romaine bostick a little later on on "the close." let's go to london heathrow airport. bloomberg's guy johnson sitting down with robin hayes, jetblue ceo. guy: it is a critical moment on this north atlantic route that everybody is going to be watching so carefully. in some ways, it is a strange time to be launching a transit lentic service, isn't it? you can fly from -- transatlantic service, isn't it? you can fly from the u.s. to europe. you can't fly the other way around. maybe there is some method to the madness we are seeing from jetblue. it's ceo here, robin hayes. great to see you. how was the flight? robin: the flight was great. we left early and got here early, and we had a wonderful trip over. tom: no stacking --guy: no stacking over he screw -- over heathrow, which used to be something of an experience. let's talk a little bit about heathrow. this is a tough airport to

jonathan: plenty of demand. lisa: just to do a brief fact check, i did not buy 5000 square feet on the upper west side. going forward, the question is why there hasn't been a faster flow into the labor market. people blame the advanced unemployment -- the enhanced unemployment. but those who dropped out early have not seen an uptick of people into the workforce. jonathan: you take a break. equity futures up a single point on the s&p. yields up to basis points on a 10 year. going into payroll, the median estimate in a bloomberg survey 858,000. do i do this for the next 90 minutes? -2/10 of 1%. lisa: that is the uncertainty with respect to the data. we are getting alive payroll report at 8:30 a.m.. how will the market respond? we have been talking for weeks about what happens if it is upside. how big of an upside surprise doesn't have to be before they think of tapering? a sinner taper means lower long-term growth -- a slower taper means lower long-term growth. president joe biden will speak about the jobs report.

jonathan: will supply arrive? run through the price action as we beat the drum a little but hard to going into payrolls. your equity market up two on the s&p 500. into the bond market, yields higher by two or three basis points to 1.2499% on tends. your yield estimate -- your payrolls estimate, 850,000. the payrolls report and america is up next. (announcer) if you've struggled to lose weight, you might think you were born with a slow metabolism, but what you may have is insulin resistance. fat becomes trapped inside your body and it becomes very difficult to lose weight. now there's golo. golo works to reverse the effects of insulin resistance, increase metabolic efficiency, and targets stubborn belly fat. join over two million people who have found a smarter way to lose weight and get healthier. go to golo.com and change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. jonathan: here comes the payrolls report. live from new york city, good morning. equity market unchanged, bond market, yields are higher. 1.2499. michael: 940 3000

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york we begin with the big issueon a knife edge. >> gradual normalization. >> starting to see growth is beginning to slow down. >> some of the earlier fiscal stimulus is starting to wade. >> getting downtrends from the data like retail sales. >> exiting this period where we had strong economic data. we may be moving to a period where it surprises to the downside. >> the reopening boom is over. >> it may be delayed somewhat.

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. yields up two basis points on the 10 year, 1.35 39%. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> now with the recovery well underway, they transition from that extraordinary monetary policy accommodation to more neutral settings must follow. so today's economy does not call for tight monetary policy to be clear. but i think it does signal that the time has come to dial back the settings. jonathan: esther george of the federal reserve bank of kansas city, the president. good morning. from new york city alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures basically unchanged on the s&p. yields higher on tens. that commentary from esther george inc. is so important. i've talked about the spectrum of -- george i think is so important. i've talked about the spectrum of doves. esther george used to be considerate how -- considered a hawk, but now they are not talking about tighter monetary policy. they really aren't. i don't hear that from prison door -- from presiden

jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. i am jonathan ferro.en a week of bulls on the program. the equity market keeps churning out all-time highs. what a move. a point or two. tom: we start framing 49,000? jonathan: yields of about a basis point or two. you think i would get that board this summer? lisa: there's not that much summer left. jonathan: i will be off next week. tk, you got this. tom: david wilson is looking at the fusion-io are renault, he is looking at the fiat of charts. david: clear coming up on the 50th anniversary of president nixon's decision to break the tie between gold and the dollar. tom: remember that? people were screaming. david: the question is what has happened to gold over that 50-year timeframe? how does it compare to stocks? with the chart does is look at spot gold, immediate delivery relative to the s&p 500 with and without dividends. you get a very different comparison based on what you do with the s&p 500. if you look at just the index itself, gold has been pretty competitive. you find stretches for years or go

jonathan: thank you very much.om, it is not that sleepy, making progress on the infrastructure package. we have inflation print in america, cpi front and center. tom: cpr front and center and also front and center are the moderate democrats. it will be fascinating to see how that evolves. i think it is happening sooner than we would normally see it in an off year. jonathan: inflation front and center for the people's bank of china. they just put out there second-quarter monetary report. they say the ppi surge is short-term. they do not use the "t" word, but sound like they are on board. tom: sounds like they're managing the message. as bill lee said, it is a command economy -- i think that is french for they have a lot of powers that we do not have, and they will do every thing they can to keep the job economy going. jonathan: and so many of issues around the supply side of the economy, not on the demand side. when we focus on the united states specifically, those supply-side issues building again in china, giving

jonathan: margins have held up. they have been able to pass on higher costs, top and bottom line growth. that has been the story, hasn't it? i just wonder whether those margins hold up. that is the key question, i think. that holds the key to performance going into the new year. your equity market up 11 on the s&p 500, up 0.25% on the s&p. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden is laying out an ambitious goal today. he wants half of all vehicles sold in the u.s. to be emission free by the end of the decade. automakers say that can only be achieved with a better government investment in charging stations and other infrastructure. china has imposed new travel and movement restrictions in an and have to stop the debt -- in an attempt to stop the spread of the delta variant. public transport and taxi services were curtailed in 144 of the worst hit areas nationwide. in beijing, train service and subway usage were limited. but dern says it's coronavirus vacci

jonathan f: we've got to run. good to catch up. jonathan krinsky there of baycrest partners.ack down to 99 on the twos-tens spread. tom: i couldn't figure out the japan yield story. stephen spratt of bloomberg noting no trade today in the japan tenure. i don't know what to make of that. jonathan f: that's what has been happening in japan. that headline is not the first time we have seen it read we have seen it a number of times. these markets, can we even call them markets anymore in a traditional sense? lisa: i was just going to say the same thing. is it still a market if you just have one behemoth sticking its thumb on everything. jonathan f: a price insensitive buyer sucking it all up. what is the price tell you? the answer at the moment is who knows? twos-tens breaking down, sub 100 at 99 basis points. from new york city, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. on radio, on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's

jonathan: with every scare, you've made money being optimistic. lisa: true. jonathan: bottom line.t the need or desire of monetary authorities to craft social policies? that will be the debate at jackson hole. jonathan: i cannot believe i am leaving and you've not even had a date at me for taking a vacation -- a dig at me for taking a long vacation. my final show of the year. i'll be gone for a while. i am writing a book. something like that. this is "bloomberg surveillance." laura: the international monetary fund says the new government in afghanistan is cut off from using funds. that comes just days after the nation was set to receive $500 million. the imf says afghanistan cannot use the money because the new regime lacks international repetition. in haiti the death toll from the earthquake has risen to almost 2200. tensions have been rising over the slow pace of a reaching victims. they have complete up inadequate food and materials needed to repair damaged homes. shares of robinhood her down sharply in premarket trading. the brokerage warns the crypto driven surge sought second

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro, on radio, on tv. "bloomberg surveillance ." feels like payrolls friday, doesn't it? tom: it is so exciting. jonathan: basis points at 1.3658%. that might have something to do a supply. -- to do with supply. on the s&p, we are negative a little more than 0.1%. it matters for main, for wall street. it matters for washington, d.c. your employment report -- your inflation report as of next -- report is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ comcast nbcuniversal is investing in entrepreneurs to bring what's next for sports technology to athletes, teams, and fans. that's why we created the sportstech accelerator, to invest in and develop the next generation of technology that will change the way we experience sports. we've already invested in entrepreneurs like ane swim, who develops products that provide hair protection so that everyone can enjoy the freedom of swimming. like the athletes competing in tokyo, these entrepreneurs have a fierce work ethic and drive to achieve - to change the game and inspire the team

jonathan: i am not sure that is why they named it.ll get up to speed with the inflation story and then the equity market story. he has the big bull on the street. we have seen an all-time side -- all-time high after record high in this equity market. tom: the bears have been humbled. we used to see how they will publish tonight and into the week. jonathan: what will the bears do over the weekend, what does hebert do? lisa: they are very quiet. jonathan: they come back monday and get fired up and growled. lisa: no, i think that the issue is that there is no joy for a bear, because you do not win you keep losing. if they all get snuffed out, is there a risk in markets? the bear this -- the bearishness is giving people confidence. jonathan: this is my frustration with the permanent bears. they seem to have this free option with nora x asked with no expiration. they are right, fantastic, genius, they sound smart all the time but over the decade they miss the whole bull market. lisa: i think that is fading based on where we are seeing mark

why, jonathan? it story on the telegraph. why, jonathan?— story on the telegraph. why, jonathan? jonathan? it is a fantastic daily i telegraph story. this would be... archbishop — telegraph story. this would be... archbishop of york says the london method _ archbishop of york says the london method from an elite says it is... we are _ method from an elite says it is... we are not— method from an elite says it is... we are not allowed to be pedro to -et we are not allowed to be pedro to get a _ we are not allowed to be pedro to get a more — we are not allowed to be pedro to get a more full depay do nothing and straddle _ get a more full depay do nothing and straddle. we see lots of patriotism, we've _ straddle. we see lots of patriotism, we've seen— straddle. we see lots of patriotism, we've seen it in the olympic coverage, _ we've seen it in the olympic coverage, we've ended in coverage of the euros _ coverage, we've ended in coverage of the euros -- — coverage, we've ended in coverage of the euros —— seen it. it is interesting, the prime minister now, when _ interesting, the pri

i'm jonathan capehart. this is "the sunday show." ♪♪ ♪♪ >>> we begin this morning tracking hurricane ida with wind speeds now just a few miles per hour away from becoming a category 5 hurricane. the powerful storm is expected to slam into louisiana within the next few hours, possibly causing catastrophic damage on the 16th anniversary of katrina. with winds at 150 miles per hour, the governor of louisiana put the storm in context with this dire warning. >> we can sum it up by saying this will be one of the strongest hurricanes to hit anywhere in louisiana since at least the 1850s. >> joining me now is msnbc meteorologist michelle grossman. michelle, when do we expect hurricane ida to actually make landfall? >> so, we expect it in the next two to three hours. and, jonathan, we spoke on friday and that was a category 1 storm. now up to a category 4 storm. and let's take a look at satellite. i'll kind of walk you through the storm and what we expect from ida. we're talking about catastrophes, life-threatening

i'm jonathan capehart in for joy reid. we begin "the reidout" with new urgency in the fight against covid, with the u.s. crossing the 35 million case milestone late sunday. today the white house said 70% of all u.s. adults have had at least one vaccine dose. almost a month after president biden's original goal of reaching that mark by july 4th. one of those vaccines went to senator lindsey graham who announced today that he tested positive for covid. the senator added he is very glad he was vaccinated, saying his symptoms would otherwise be far worse. it's a message the public health community is desperate to get out, that the vaccine is highly effective, despite the fact that breakthrough infections can happen. they are for one very rare. according to data collected by nbc news, breakthrough infections in 38 states represent, and listen to this number, less than 0.08% of the people who have been fully vaccinated. the former biden advisor on covid-19 estimating that 98% to 99% of deaths are among the unvaccinated. the delt

ronan: jonathan makes this a great point and that's something to be thankful for. we have seen an industry after industry, that kind of bullying style lose its purchase. and in andrew cuomo, he presided over an administration that could be argued that was fairly corrupt, the kind of interference was widespread and before his tenure and during his tenure new york remaipped one of the more corrupt -- remained one of the most corrupt are states in the country. it has tolerated this kind of interference and bullying and i think we are seeing a wakeup call where those changes that jonathan alluded to are colliding with an old-school style of leadership. yamiche: things started out this strain of the changing times and the shifting ideas and the ideas that may be work on the dpop side and running on your family's name is a changing idea in american politics. so i appreciate both of things coming on. and i want to say thank things so much to the reporters. i have to leave things a couple minutes early so things can support your local pbs station and thank things for joini

jonathan: we start -- tom: we start with the dow futures. the fix -- standards -- standard and poor's negative eight. what interests you? jonathan: i was planning to leave anyway. lisa will take care of the 9:00 for you. this market still really in the treasury market. i'm going to go get a beige suit. what it would take me to wear that suit. tom: oxford is over. jonathan: how do you get that elke fit? lisa: dr. phil. [laughter] tom: help you out on radio here. jonathan: this is the fit i want to. i'm good to be late, i have to go. tom: he may go away. an important discussion on the new dynamics of the american jobs report. from where you are after that jobs report, are you walking in the office glass half full or half empty? >> glass half full. that jobs report which was strong across the board doesn't really signify the extent to which there is positive growth in the u.s.. it does market infect -- inflection point in the rally we are seeing. i think rates will move higher from here. i do think there was an inflection point with jobs being

jonathan, will you come again? i scottish. jonathan, will you come auain? ., ., ., scottish.rillion. . and i know we will have kate again —— brilliant. sports and weather coming up next, and then it will be the midnight hour. hello there. i'm olly foster with the latest from the bbc sport centre. team gb are back up fourth in the medal table at the tokyo olympics. that's after two more golds on the 14th day of the games. one of them came in the velodrome, where laura kenny became the most successful female british olympian. she and katie archibald won the madison. kenny is also the first british woman to win golds at three consecutive games. the british pair dominated the 120—lap race, winning ten of the 12 sprints on offer to finish on 78 points, over twice as many as the danes who finished second. out of all the medals kenny has won, this fifth gold seems to mean the most. i've never wanted to win a race so badly in all my life, and that was the one. i messaged jason this morning. isaid, "i feel like my olympics end today." like, that was really our main target. i love the

dr jonathan _ also —— views the taliban. you're watching newsday on the bbc. still to come on the programme: seeking another escape route — thousands of afghans travel to the border with pakistan, but many are not being allowed through. he's the first african—american to win the presidential nomination of a major party, and he accepts exactly 45 years ago to the day that martin luther king declared, "i have a dream." as darkness falls tonight, an unfamiliar light will appear in the southeastern sky — an orange glowing disc that's brighter than anything save the moon — our neighbouring planet, mars. there is no doubt that this election is an important milestone in the birth of east timor as the world's newest nation. it'll take months and billions i of dollars to repair what katrina achieved injust hours. three weeks is the longest the great clock has been off—duty in 117 years, so it was with great satisfaction that clockmakerjohn vernon swung the pendulum to set the clock going again. big ben chimes this is newsday on the b

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jonathan?or more on what's ahead in the senate, on infrastructure, voting rights and more, i'm joined by john bresnahan and jacqueline alamane, author of "the power-up" newsletter. thank you very much. as ali reported, we're going to be hearing from senate majority leader chuck schumer about what the road ahead looks like. you guys are in the business of telling us what's going to happen before it happens. so what's going to happen? what is he going to tell us? what does the road ahead look like? >> they're going to keep working. that's what they're going to tell you. listen, we talked to hagerty yesterday, senator hagerty from tennessee is a freshman, he didn't want to -- you can weigh what is called post closure time technically, he didn't want to wave that. he didn't want to speed up thing, he blocked an agreement on thursday night. he didn't want to do anything yesterday on it. we'll have to see what he does today. because there is going to be another vote tonight and then there will be ano

i am jonathan mccall. it may be only the preseason, the official games don't really count but bragging rights definitely on the line today as fans packing inside of levi's stadium. >> for this much anticipated matchup. >> it's also the first game between both teams since the raiders move to las vegas. we have team coverage of today's match-up. kate rooney will have highlights in just a few minutes. but we'll start with law enforcement harry, she got a chance to talk with fans on both sides. i'm going to imagine and at what was it like out there today. >> i did speak to fans on both sides like you guys said this was a pre season game, but still this parking lot behind me was completely packed and everyone i spoke to told me they're excited to see this rivalry staying alive. >> while the game was going on inside levi's stadium. some people were partying thousands of fans turned out to watch the pre season game between 2 old rivals. i think it's great. i think it's great we can still rekindle that been you kn

jonathan: here comes the deal down in d.c.w york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market is down a single point on the s&p. the focus on washington, a deal coming together. tom: a deal coming together on