jonathan: some capital returns, matt? matthew: it is a good thing. jonathan: well agree.att mclennan, thank you. an important conversation, tom, on inflation protection going into cpi. tom: we heard earlier from the bitcoin angle from tony roth at wilmington. they are starting to look at bitcoin is a gold alternative. do you buy it, jon? jonathan: no idea. you know what happens when you weigh in on bitcoin. ramos bears come after you. [laughter] tom: are you going to put bitcoin in? jonathan: yields higher this morning by a basis point on tens to 1.3377%. equity futures set the stage going into this inflation print, up three points on the s&p 500. tom: have you moved in the last five months? jonathan: we've not done much. we need to settle some massive debates, though. i will be talking about job openings in america in about 20 minutes. they are sky high, record highs. what will it take to close the gap between demand and supply, and can we close the gap when we have very clear supply constraints right now, not just in america, but worldwide? tom: you are very microeconom

jonathan: tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramovitz. keep on climbing come up for basis points to 152. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: senate republicans have blocked a bill that would suspend the debt ceiling and would have kept the government operating past the end of the fiscal year later this week. that increases the pressure on democrats to find a way to raise the debt ceiling. they may have to use a budget procedure that could take nearly two weeks. treasury secretary janet yellen refused to return calls from the head of the imf. withholding support is beyond its public statement. -- accused of properly intervening in a report in her prior job. a new number one in the ratings, -- at the top of the survey. norway fell when it had the worst outbreak in the world period delta variant has left the u.s. reeling to number 28. ford making the biggest investment in its history. the automator will spend $11.4 billion to build factories in tennessee and kentucky. the project will create sites to produce electric f-150 pickup tru

jonathan: where you can -- tom: where you complain about your taxes. jonathan: then i have. went a long time ago. you seem to be becoming more british, tom. tom: mrs. kane had a little bit to do with that. jonathan: when i first started a bloomberg you could see when people were taking vacation, going into tom keene's diary it would be like four days of the whole year, for five days max. tom: and migrated a little bit. jonathan: the chairman of the federal reserve coming up later. the news conference at 2:30 eastern time. kaylee will be joining us. lisa abramowicz taking a couple of days off. here's the set up this wednesday. futures positive up 22. into the bond market, yields higher by about a basis point. a lot of thanks around the company evergrande. overnight we got a hint, one payment on one bond tomorrow in one way or another. what happens with the interest payment on a dollar bond due tomorrow. >> it was not something you see out of u.s. treasuries. jonathan: i have no idea if this sticks. we are advancing one half of 1%. a lot to get through this week including the

i am jonathan arrow. -- jonathan ferro. teachers up. -- futures up. tom: four days of a losses. we have cratered 1.2% on the s&p 500. it is been a bloodbath. futures this morning we watched an interesting three hours. i am just not going to get wound up. jonathan: the president pushing van seen mandates. tom: maybe that is why futures are up. it is the american solution. we don't do it like singapore. we do it like america, which is the president is turning to business. jonathan: are we correcting course? lisa: i know that a note was put out saying the policy of cracking down a little harder on the vaccines is a market positive. i don't know if we can draw any conclusions from this. i know tom is buying this dip. this to me just shows that perhaps the fed policy is flawed in and of itself and they have to understand the influence they have over the markets. they read the room wrong. it was vetted by lawyers so it does go directly to policy and how it needs to crafted. francine: does congress -- jonathan: does congress have to do the same thing? tom: i have very strong things abo

jonathan: aluminum getting back. tom: it is not a vegetable. jonathan: carry-on.: joe mathieu joins us, the only one on the team who understands the term price from stockbridge to boston. the most important guy i'm watching right now in washington is not joe manchin, it is neal of the first congressional district in massachusetts. explain how important chairman neil is. >> richard neil could arguably be the most powerful man in washington today when they come out with the big draft that we have been talking about here. new rates for corporate taxes, new rates for capital gains, both of which, as we have been reporting, fall short of what president biden wanted. he is going to have a big day ahead. tom: i agree, but does he have the power that others had years ago? does he have that power, or is the power lessened because of the dominance of leaders? >> it is lessened by the razor thin margin and indeed, the dominance of the leaders is important. nancy pelosi is running the show right now. but at some point, you have to let the tax-writing ways and means committee

jonathan: is supply issues persist. lisa: this is the argument from bank of america saying inflation pressures will get real. a lot of companies have been able to pass along costs to consumers but wagers -- wages are not keeping pace. that means sales will fall. jonathan: is out the -- you saw the downgrade of nike down to neutral on rising supply concerns. this is a real thing right now. demand is fine, that is not the problem. we have been used to a world where demand. is the problem -- demand is the problem. tom: what is the event diagram of supply worries over inflation worries? jonathan: we can talk about job openings later and the cost it will take to solve those labor market issues. we will do that with jens nordvig. let's get to the price action on the s&p 500. totally unchanged on the s&p 500. in the bond market, yield is higher. we could do the nicki minaj tweet, we could do the alexandria ocasio-cortez address . tom: the nicki minaj tweet is not appropriate for tv and radio, but ian bremmer responded to it. [

jonathan: are.n we have a surprise if they got something done, would it be a bigger surprise if we just slide through year-end, get a lot of things done, have an agreement over the debt ceiling, and move on? >> that would be a surprise if everything were to go that smoothly in washington over the next 60 days or so. morgan stanley certainly doesn't believe that it will. the question about whether they can get the plan done is not separated from the $1 trillion other social spending. the house has indicated that they won't let those things happen without each other. i don't know if i agree with lisa that i wouldn't be surprised to see the bipartisan bill not getting done if the democrats in the house can't get what they want. jonathan: not the first time i've been accused of painting a picture of a perfect world. >> honestly, i think the people are expecting something to get done, whether it is a wash. jonathan: your equity market goes nowhere on the s&p. this is bloomberg. (announcer) back pain hurt

jonathan: yeah right.n radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it won't be all sightseeing for the first all civilian crew of a man space mission -- of a manned space mission. they will conduct some medical research during the three-day excursion. the passengers include tech billionaire jerry eiseman -- billionaire jared isaac meant. a new indo pacific ship with the u.s. on the u.k. -- australia adjoining a new indo pacific partnership with the u.s. and the u.k.. it allows australia to acquire new nuclear powered submarines. australia had agreed to buy as many as a dozen subs from the french. president biden and the u.s. military have defended calls that joint chiefs of staff chairman mark milley made to china in the waning months of the trumpet adminstration. a new book says the jet -- the trump administration. a new book says the general spoke with top officials twice. president biden says he has great confidence in millie. summary -- in milley. some re

jonathan: george? george: i do think there is challenges to forecasting this environment, trying to get this job's market and figure out the supply chain disruptions is so hard. who knows if there is hoarding going on as well. i am more on the pessimistic side, thinking there is demand being pulled forward and we will see that give back into the remainder of the year and next year. it doesn't mean we fall to recession, but it doesn't mean that the fed is tapering into a slow down. jonathan: you have a treasury market called on? what is it? george: the treasury market have been forecasting this through the summer. do we start to price in the actual rate moves higher? i cannot see it manifesting itself in this environment. there is not enough good news to push things higher. jonathan: coming up next on the program, the auction block. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg real yield. time for the auction block. we kick things off in europe with a sizable offer

jonathan: that's why i ask.ar before the midterms do you need to get this done, especially with the infrastructure package? do people want to see the benefits of that beyond just seeing a signature at the bottom of a bill? lisa: technically they are sort of linked because the house democrats have been clear about that. i have -- i wonder how stimulative it will be if it is offset entirely by taxes. jonathan: that is the fear, if we start to see a headwind instead of a tailwind. futures up 24 on the hudson p -- on the s&p, advancing 0.5%. tom: ♪ i don't ever want to wear a suit and tie again ♪ jonathan: dear me. [laughter] (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is go

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro, this is real yield.s is the auction block, their strong investor demand across the treasury auctions this week, leaving primary dealers with some of the lowest percentages on record. the junk bond market is bouncing back from a slow start post labor day, costing more than $3 billion in new deals. and what week, corporate america dividing the high-grade market in a $76 billion issuance spree. this is pushing volume over the one trillion mark for the year. we spoke to our guest earlier. >> this is a bit of a surprise for us. if you look at the credit market, you do see a couple of weeks of decompression but largely, the lowest quality parts have held them well. this is a combination of supply and the more progressive positioning aware evaluations are yet that's why this is more than just a supply per sale. jonathan: zach, i want to come to you. the amount of supply we have taken down this week in u.s. investment grade. what the message you take away from that? zachary: on one hand is a story but it's also

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. a quick break. [laughter] futures down 12 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. the european central bank is deciding today whether the economy is strong enough to start slowing down stimulus. policymakers are due to settle on how much bond buying the economy will need in the fourth quarter. data points to an improving rebound in the u.n.. that despite the delta variant and supply chain problems. german prosecutors right at the finance and justice ministry today. an investigation into whether officials at an anti-money-laundering unit failed to handle cases correctly. the case is centered on warnings that banks warned the financial intelligence unit. in china, inflation levels at the factory level has seen a 10 year high. it rose 9.5% in august from a year earlier driven mainly by high prices were commodities come out put prices in the coal industry, up 57% from a year ago. the biden administration reportedly is trying to sue texas for the controversia

[laughter] jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. from new york city on radio tv, equities are up. we cover the markets, sometimes. yields are higher by a basis point. tom: what's a small caps? lisa: jonathan: -- jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> a term when many women don't even know they are pregnant, the supreme court could acted today, though there is no firm deadline. opec and allies meet today to provide halted oil production with another increase in output in october with prices that have mover -- mostly overcome mid-august but the lookout for the rest of the year is relatively complacent. mailchimp has been approaching an email marketing firm for millions, their biggest acquisition ever. global news 24 hours per day -- global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we will follow and monitor the new rulers in kabul and also make it clear that the nato allies have the capability to strike from

jonathan: is it wednesday yet? we are wondering what comes next, and i think it grips everyone, what is next in the cycle, in this market? can we get that second run of the cyclical stocks? tom: michael mckee of bloomberg, i am sorry the american sumer reported this week constructively. jonathan: i mentioned this a couple of times, that against the u.s. consumer at your peril. big downside surprise over in china and upside surprise in the united states, what do they have in common? we are starting to get a read. in september, struggling to gauge whether -- where the economy is at any given data point. tom: you and i see it here in new york, i assume it is across the nation, rents higher. lisa: if you look at any other survey, you are talking about 10%, 15% increases in rent in various cities across the nation. i think this says the american consumer wants to buy stuff, however the prices are going up, and the prices of what they want to buy is going up, and some of it is supply chain constraints. some of it is beca

jonathan: to have the vote?st trying to find out because you read the script, we go away, and i am still not sure if there's a vote today. rep. clark: well, we are still in negotiations. we want to get to yes. everybody does. that is what the white house is working on. that is what leadership is working on. that is what our whole caucus is working on. but whether that bodes happens today -- that vote happens today, and i hope it does come of this is not over if we have not reached that in our negotiations. our commitment is to getting this entire agenda done, and that will happen. that is what is happening because we are committed to the american people, and meeting this moment of great challenge with one of great progress. we also have a deadline today of keeping government open, and we will also deliver on that. we will not allow a government shutdown. we are going to take up, go back and make sure that, as your opening said, we deal with this issue of the debt ceiling. it is a primary response ability. -- res

jonathan: we will have him on wall street. you take the jobs print and you have a conversation about what it means. let's talk about it what it means for fiscal support. in the wall street journal. lisa: they want to take a strategic pause to assess the inflation data. that's going to be the new transitory as we partially what they are looking for. to that point, underneath the headline number and looking at the wage inflation that is going to be important, if you see significant wage inflation, that may tie the fed's hands more. it bleeds into the tight labor market. jonathan: you wanted to make the point on the participation rate. for many people, that is the view that separates. that is their outlook of the participation rate. tom: the initial force of a series, james lewis claims is gorgeous. it has a massive persistency and improvement every week. you can't say that about labor participation. it went down and came back. it has flatlined. it has got to improve. jonathan: reminiscent of what we saw several decades ago? tom:

should jonathan: be get to san francisco jonathan: -- jonathan: should we get to san francisco?isco blanch, good to catch up. let's get to what is happening with aluminum. is this all supply scarcity? francisco: indeed, there is supply scarcity on a couple of different fronts. we had a coup d'etat in guinea, which has created some exciting -- some anxiety around an ingredient into aluminum, which in turn, we've had shortages there, but more importantly, china helping curb aluminum supplies for most of the year because they are trying to rein in and become cleaner, and it has been a low rate year in china, part of the reason they have been trying to crack down on bitcoin. so it is filling the gap for that lack of hydropower. when you look at limited production in china, it is flat as a pancake. we have this liquidity in the system, and that is what is pushing prices higher. tom: i saw the london metals index. the bloomberg index shows metals as a group doing better. we know the commodity index has done better as well. does it signal a commodities breakout? can you call a bull mar

jonathan: well, come on soon. if we don't get through the 50 pages, maybe bring a summary and we can go through it with our audience. [laughter] daniel: i will bring a companion. jonathan: we appreciate that. sterling breaking down through 1.35. this one closed with a 1.37 handle on thursday. a real turnaround for sterling. everything has changed today relative to yesterday. equities are higher, yields lower. with the exception of the dollar. the dollar stronger again this morning. tom: i go back and forth on this while we are answering questions and doing work. i did a bunch of technical studies, and sterling hasn't had the standard deviation move of other currencies here. but i tell you, from a point and figure basis, this is inside baseball. it is a textbook double high pull top, which screams weaker sterling. jonathan: explain that to us. tom: i can't do it in 20 seconds. all i can say is read your aw cohen, and you will understand. jonathan: i will do that on the break. on the cable, we are -0.4%. the dxy nea

jonathan: thank you.germany, the csu giving a postelection briefing, saying conservatives have no mandate to form a government. laschet believes they are first in line, and that is the case this morning. tom: sdp is comfortable with the left. who is the csu comfortable with? jonathan: this morning it is about the fdp and the greens. what we're learning from the fdp is they've decided to start talks with the green party. to what degree can the fdp work with the greens? they will be the kingmaker for the spd. tom: i am confused, like i was yesterday. can we admit that yesterday and this weekend was magical for global sports? what i loved was the angle of the sun and just the beauty of it. jonathan: i love that you skip from german politics strata soccer. dressed strata -- strata -- tom: this tops it all. this gentleman is 87 years old. this guy was a mediocre pro ballplayer and he has become beloved starting with the iconic ad of the 1970's for miller lite. go watch it. you will love it. iconic with the mil

jonathan: what time, lisa? lisa: 4:30 p.m. jonathan: 6:00 p.m. eastern time, dallas fed president holding a virtual town hall. this will probably be the most-watched virtual town hall from the fed president. kailey: it may be colored a bit by the stock trading and the amount of money he has made. i wanted to point to what you heard from jim bullard. forget about the weak jobs report, he is still saying the fed should push ahead and taper in the near term. jonathan: dallas fed active buyer and seller of stocks last year. lisa: it was vetted by compliance. if anyone wants to point fingers at the fed -- point fingers, point at the fed policy. all of these people calling to audit the fed. there is skepticism around fed officials who have more power than ever. jonathan: not a situation you need. let's bring an wells fargo international economist. i want to start with morgan stanley. the argument we have made, it has been strengthened. do you agree? >> no, probably not. it is too early to sound the all clear. when you look in to the fourth quarter of t

jonathan: bitcoin is down.s, and 30's, your treasury yield curve has been all over the place. that used to say 1.40, 140.97 on tends. yielding a field basis points on the 10. the story yesterday, yields absolutely soaring. lisa: definitely soaring, on the heels of not just the fed but the bank of england on ecb. i want to get to a question of how much could a chinese economic slowdown really affect the u.s. economy? if we are not talking about a lehman moment, we are talking about the removal of the dynamism of global growth from china. michael darden covers all of it. i want to start there. how much would a material slowdown affect the united states? >> it's a great question. we don't know offhand. it critically depends on how much contagion there is and so if we listen to what chair powell said this week, the financial conditions, if they were to tighten drastically, that would essentially deliver the same kind of headwinds the fed started to tighten much more quickly than expected. so far, that hasn't really

jonathan: why? tom: one of the first questions and esteemed chairman of bloomberg said to me, tom, what about moving averages? the answer is taken singularly, it is bad math, bad study. you've got to use a set of moving averages, and no one's doing that. jonathan: that's the most fired up you've been this morning. tom: it is. they almost fired me. jonathan: i'm tense, 1.2735. -- on tens, 1.2735. the show would be so different. tom: let me roll over for a minute. jonathan: take a break. wti wrapping down about a dollar on crude. lisa, 71.41. lisa: the markets and how there is not much action, not an incredible amount of data. 8:30 a.m., import christ -- import prices come out. supply chain disruptions on both fronts, how much are import prices increasing as a result and what is this saying about china, the transmission mechanism to the united states? what is the path along rates to the end consumers, fly manufacturers? we've been talking all morning about elevated crude prices, the highest since earl

jonathan: we can do that later this morning. lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro.if i take the second one on my knees, does that work? ? jonathan: it is payrolls friday. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the race to secede japan's prime minister is seen as wide open, saying he would resign after failing to control the coronavirus search. whoever becomes the next leader of the party is assured of becoming prime minister because the party's dominance in parliament. it is a tax settlement that is one of the biggest in -- the bill in their founder of renaissance technologies and his colleagues will pay billions in back taxes to resolve the case. senate investigations peg the amount at a minimum of 6.8 billion dollars. new york and new jersey learned that the older norms of wealth no longer apply. the remnants of hurricane ida killed more people in the northeast then it did on the gulf coast. european union and astrazeneca have ended months of bitter supplies for vexing suppressed. they fell behind the u.k. this year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloombergquint take,

tom: you couldn't get out of jonathan: -- jonathan: jonathan: jonathan: you couldn't get out of cash. let's see what jason draw hope -- jason draho has to say, ubs head of america's asset allocation. how long this will take? jason: it might be along the line of four to six weeks. we have to get through the evergrande situation. we have to get through the fomc tomorrow to see is the fed going to be a little more hawkish, or do they toe the line. we get to the debt ceiling. over the next two weeks, we see a lot of potential headline risks to get through. until we come clear of those hurdles, i think people get more comfortable that the underlying fundamentals haven't really changed. may the summer slowdown is over if that is the case -- maybe the summer slowdown is over. if that is the case, i think it gives people comfort that ultimately the fundamentals r.o.k., that sets us up for -- fundamentals are ok, and that sets us up a good year end. tom: how do you actually tactically do it? jason: it depends on exactly what your baseline allocation is. you were talking about you couldn't pull

jonathan: this is bloomberg.itika: china's central bank says cryptocurrency related transactions are illegal. it is the strongest move against the industry. the website indicates cryptocurrencies including the coin are not fee at and cannot be speculated. -- fiat and cannot be speculated. the influential sister of north korean leader kim jong-un says her country is willing to extend talks with south korea. it wants the south to persuade the u.s. to decrease sanctions. missile tests were designed to show they would keep their arsenal active during sanctions. an investigation opened into market abuse by each cutie. the company eqt --. the sale of shares that follows the revision. the european commission has confirmed that trade in tech with the u.s. will go ahead as planned. according to draft kimmons, the e.u. and u.s. will discuss documents -- global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is blo

jonathan: ceo from new york city, good morning. i'm jonathan ferro.ets are up as follows. a little bit firm this friday morning, the bond market is up to basis points. we will be talking about that on bloomberg real yield at 1:00 eastern time. i do that with the wonderful erector. tom: very good. nice shout out. it's amazing. you know their last names, that's really something. we know the name wilson. david wilson is joining us with a chart. what do you have today? david: how the s&p 500 on since the 9/11 attacks of 20 years ago and compare that to what it did in the previous 20 years. when you do that, you find out we've done fairly well over the past 20 years with the s&p 500 delivering an annualized gain of 7.3%. it's nothing like what we saw in the previous 20 years. you are talking 1981-2001. you saw a gain of 11%. to understand why, maybe have to look at the way the index is changed in terms of the biggest companies. go back 20 years. look at the top five most heavily weighted stocks. general electric, which has struggled over the past two decad

jonathan: hello, september. good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio, alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene. i am jonathan ferro. another month of gains. tom: ben laver top text, the good folks over at credit suisse, expands the deal, a very careful short note but the idea of getting to 5000 15, standard and poor, a solid 10% move over what, john, the next 14 months or so? he says it is earnings, earnings, earnings. jonathan: seven months of gains, tom, and the fed has capitulated. wells fargo looking this year but next year looking for a move down toward that kind of level, and that would be an annual decline for wells fargo and chris harvey. that raises the question, tom, if the fed starts paring back accommodation, what does it mean for that market, despite these market gains? tom: while you were gone on your three week trip working on the galley for drawdown meditation, what we heard from people was a raging debate, all of this economic battle, jackson hole and the

jonathan: jim young go? >> this number may have showed us that the july number of more than million jobs was an outlier and not this one. all the data we have gotten in the last month has been disappointing. price indexes have turned negative. gdp trackers have been downgraded and we got another disappointing number. septembers number may not be any better. when we had hurricane katrina, harvey in 2005 and 2017, we reported negative payroll numbers in those months. it may come down to fed policy and how fast the power comes back on in new orleans. jonathan: you think the fed is may be missing a window to make this decision? >> i'm afraid they might have. if the power doesn't come back on on new orleans, they could have a number close to zero next month. if the power comes back on before the 13th, we will not have that problem. the governor says it may be weeks before the power comes back on. >> we don't have as negative of a take. it's a good point. today's jobs report may make some fed officials worried, bu

jonathan: let's go to pete right now.there a risk for that demand that we talked about through the year just been so robust, does that actually start to go away? peter: this month is critical. we have the reopening and school should be reopening and people should be having some of the checks, i am nervous that some of those jobs will disappear because the companies will close , or we will start seeing more automation as your prior guest said to fill those jobs. this is a critical period, where if we do not see those jobs getting field come up -- filled, those jobs could go away. i am thinking about a football game or a soccer match where there are all those easy chances getting scored, and then you start getting that feeling that if we cannot take advantage of this now, this will not end well. lisa: there is this feeling that september has been deferred, the out that area it slowed things down and created some kind of fissure in the recovery that will be resolved perhaps october. is art -- are these weeks really that crit

jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. equity futures this monday morning down 62. tom keene, evergrande front and center. >> this is a comprehensive price adjustment on a monday morning. you can go any number of ways here. i am simply going to go 20 miles or so as you move down to hong kong and when you see henderson development and the other traditional hong kong developers begin to see their share price erode. jonathan: starting to bleed into global markets. we are down four basis 30. from all your reading are we facing financial risk or are we facing real economic risk? tom: what we do have is an agenda and it stretches into the fed meeting after this new debt ceiling debate heats up. edie's a set of things and you get that out of september into q4. ed rushed to the end of the year and the mystery of 2022. jonathan: the mystery for me, this has been on the radar for a long time. it here we are waking up to this with futures down one lisa: -- 1.4%. lisa: the fact ch

jonathan: session lows, we are down 71. -1.6%.s is bloomberg. ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. >> the little before the storm before the fed needs to act and do something. >> this is the perfect time because things are so quiet. >> we have very accommodative financial conditions now. they will probably still be confident in tapering. >> typically the fed hiking cycle does kill the value trade as well. >> they have reversed policy. this seems to be a trickier time for them. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with to

jonathan: he gets to be close to the snacks. jonathan: we are on the same page.ira just wants to be arm's-length to the cheez-its. jonathan: does anyone need to know this? probably not. up 21 on the s&p, advancing 0.5%. if you are waking up this morning -- i am not bitter or anything. [laughter] yields in a couple of basis points, at 1.5184%. do you want to look at bitcoin? tom: no i don't. $42,000, steady. jonathan: advancing 1.37%. tom: control room gets that bitcoin banner up there. jonathan: 11:00 eastern, chairman powell, governor kuroda, governor bailey, president lagarde all going to talk at a forum. that is the lineup. i will be hosting that panel, too, tom. can you imagine if i got to host that panel? tom keene would be throwing things at me, locking me in the hotel bedroom and telling everybody jon couldn't make it this morning, i'm here. reminiscing, tom? this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but wha

with jonathan for rep -- with jonathan farrow --ferro.rom new york, we begin with a resilient market or a complacent one? >> i haven't seen this level of complacency in my career. >> not necessarily complacency. >> a much more resilient equity market. >> a little bit more worry and market. >> we have some concerns. >> there is the buy the

jonathan: jonathan -- said the economy is still broken and he is bullish. lisa: is the reason people are so bullish is because the fed will -- pad companies in the s&p 500. jonathan: what we don't even talk about anymore, d.c. and the fiscal effort in washington. it barely comes up and it is not on the radar. kailey: we also have congresspeople still on their extended researchers -- recess. the tax ways and means committee will start working on that language this week and we are getting commentary out of the likes of joe manchin who is not on board and thinks the price tag is too high. there is the question of whether you can agree to the amount and how you pay for it, and what will we see in terms of tax sites that hikes -- hikes. jonathan: extended recess, i thought summer was over. lisa: all of washington, d.c. jonathan: can they wear white when they come back? can they do that? futures on the s&p 500 totally unchanged, really mutant price action as we kick things off. with the exception of the bond market, yields are higher by four basis points but the

jonathan: on fives, looking at 1%. lisa: this is a question of are we seeing the beginning or is this the end in terms of a response to a global withdraw of pandemic era stimulus. how much will this continue, with five-year notes in particular? jonathan: we have to talk about the german election. the euro weaker by .2%, a break at 117. here is the quote, europe needs a huge rebalancing between fiscal and monetary policy before the euro has any chance of moving sustainably above 122 and a broad-based coalition is unlikely to deliver it. tom: it is absolutely amazing. to the idea, these are markets recalibrating and some of it is the politics of germany, but it is the real yield market where you look at the litmus paper of the negative yields. it is not a breakout but a lesser negative yield pressure. jonathan: how this will any tightening be? tom: i would look at the belly of the curve as we did this weekend. i would suggest this is a way more interesting market monday. after what i went through yesterday, you are lucky

jonathan: big break out in crude.h up with jeff currie this morning and then francisco blanch. just the underinvestment we have seen in the old economy. tom: you got to the headlines nicely. i can't get my glasses on today. as i opened it, this is a huge misunderstanding of how tight the market is, and when it goes, these elasticities mickey price move faster than you could ever think. jonathan: brent crude at $80 a barrel. francisco blanch and the team at bank of america looking for triple digit crude next year, and according to him, we are one cold winter away from getting it sooner. tom: the tape a little bit more constructive in the last 30 minutes. let's get now to washington. annmarie hordern with an important conversation after the german elections. annmarie: that's right. i am joined by the european commissioner for trade and executive vice president which latticed abrupt skis -- executive vice president, valdis dombrovskis. yesterday you met with chairman powell, you met with secretary yellen. today you are m

jonathan: not me. lisa: this is a thing. jonathan: who was following the thing? lisa: there are people who follow the thing. kailey: michael mckee showed up on friday trying to get it in ready for it was too late. jonathan: we will talk about that later. the s&p 500 unchanged. we are down about two points. the noticeable move is in the bond market. yields higher by four basis points. two-year anchored at 21 basis points. this is a steeper curve. yields are up to 136.30. we are going through the supply slate through the week ahead. tens and 30's as the week progresses. going into the ecb, euro-dollar unchanged. lisa: i'm glad you picked up on that yield going higher and i wonder how much is that to do with structural issues like supply-chain disruptions. that will be what is in focus today. angela merkel is kicking off the iaa mobility trade show. this is not an auto trade show. this is a mobility trade show talking about all the things going into mobility, which highlights all of the supply constraints that have hit the auto industry hard. you see that when you l

jonathan: tom, do you want to get on the hydrogen plane? tom: no. jonathan: what about you?: i think i would give it a go. the history is not great. hopefully, we will make some progress. if you can launch a rocket with this stuff, i figure we will be good to go. jonathan: guy johnson out of london. good to catch up. price action. fed it decision date. after 24 on the s&p. the nasdaq advancing 0.33%. there are two interest payments due tomorrow. a local currency bond, a dollar bond. this is the dollar bond. it is trading at $.25 on the dollar. since hundred six $9 million in interest -- $669 million in interest. we have heard little about the local currency bond. we have heard nothing about this one. tom: that maybe the physics of the bond world right now. i need to give you the physics of earthquakes. australia, moments ago as substantial earthquake of nicaragua. not massive, but right up there. jonathan: quickly, it yields are higher by a serious -- a single basis point. there has been no drop for a while. similar move on 30's. 1.8665. tom: you're really yield is that frid

jonathan: are you saving, tom? tom: no. jonathan: looks very disappointed there. tom: my bank is amalgamated tuition. jonathan: ok. i should not have brought that one up. you sound a little but upset. down 32. we are negative zero point 7%. from new york city this morning, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. pressure mounting on congressional democrats to raise the debt limit and avoid crippling default. senate republicans have blocked the bill that would suspend the debt ceiling into december 2022. democrats have offered no immediate backup plan. oil has broken through the $80 a barrel barrier. the median crude benchmark rose to the highest since 2018. there are signs that demand is running ahead of supply and there have been a slurry of british price productions from traders and sellers. >> where is that hurdle rate? august, we are over $80 a barrel this morning on a branch basis, and we look at the rig count in the u.s. and other parts of the world, they are showing you $80 a barrel is simply not

jonathan: from new york city this morning. i am jonathan ferro.ts are shaping up as follows. almost 20%. the euro-dollar advancing .25%. what is happening in the energy market? crude is 7145 -- 71.45. up 1.43% on the session. tom: it is a nice trend. the bloomberg commodity index is really good math. jonathan: what about power prices? they are becoming a real issue. tom: i think it has been underreported. you are leading the good life. johnny hasn't been there recently, but i have loved going out with you on that. but around the north sea, up near yorkshire, there is no wind. jonathan: it is a big problem with power. this key converter that brings this cable out of france into the u.k. has been shut down as well. some real problems with power. it leads to that conversation about prices. a lot of people are starting to file. tom: it is shocking how we take it for granted. lisa: remember the blackout? that became a serious crisis for everyone. people are dealing with inflation in a way that they have not for years. tom: what was terrible is that i g

jonathan: you call the luxury. are some people who are asking the questions about whether central banks should be doing anything about social issues. whether central banks should have a role in any of that. lisa: some people argue this could be a liability because this will be the inflationary impulse. there has been a seachange about inflation, not just from central bankers but public sentiment. the german elections, the idea of more socialist party is gaining steam even as we get high inflation reads, people do not seem to care as much. this is telling. this is a big deal. jonathan: this was nice. it is like i never left. good to catch up with you both. lisa: the fact that you keep repeating that -- jonathan: the more i say it, the more i believe it. tom: there's been a draw on s&p futures. jonathan: off a couple of points from the highs of this morning. we advance one third of 1%. from new york city come on radio, on tv, heading over to "the open." a special thanks to lisa for covering the show. lisa: my pleasur

jonathan: let's get to the broader story.ve a federal reserve that had a hawkish tilt in yesterday's news conference. we've got a story out of china. we don't have much transparency right now. we've got an equity market that is doing all right, but 0.6% on the s&p. yields higher by three or four basis points to 1.34% on tens. tom: i also talk about the resiliency of corporations to adapt. that is from his colleague, anna han. jonathan: if you want to get to the fed, their inability to forecast inflation this year, what makes you think they will get it to 2% next year? we are obsessed with these forecasts and the dots. lisa: i am not going to be off the next fed meeting. , tom -- jonathan: tom will be. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: pakistan's government says the international community should come up with a roadmap that leads to diplomatic relations with the taliban. the country's foreign minister said the plan should include incentives if taliban leaders fulfill certain requirements. they say they are in sync wi

jonathan: they are trying to. we talked about september for so long, return to school and the expiration of the additional unemployment insurance. will that make a sufficient difference? lisa: there are increasing studies that show perhaps not all step you pointed yesterday to the wall street journal story that say that states ended it early did not see a material uptick in the number of jobs being filled. how much is there a cross over to other states? there might be other factors at play but there have been structural changes to the labor market that are not getting reflected in data because they are social like people deciding to stay home or retire early and that will make a material difference over a long time. jonathan: let's start with the economic data. the u.s. anticipates the supply constraints to heal going into year end? >> i think there will be ramifications of this, it was like a switch going on and off for the world economy. i don't think it will fade away by the end of the year. it's a global thing

jonathan: this is great. next time you come back, let's get you with jonathan golub of credit suisse again. [laughter] let's do a repeat of that. good to catch up. we appreciate your time, as awaits -- as always. send our regards to the team. the last time, i just sit back and let them go. lisa: it's great to get both sides of the case because this is the debate being had right now. jonathan: and away from the index level discussion, which is stunning to hear from bank of america right now, there is a call within that to get long some aspects of this market. tom: it is an absolutely original call, which speaks to how original the times are. jonathan: very original. from new york city this morning, good morning. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. equity futures down 11. >> i think it's unlikely that the fed is going to hike any time soon. i would even argue that 2023 is too soon. but if they were to hike,

jonathan: seconds away from economic data. good morning to you. i'm jonathan ferro.our equity market update, it's a bounce back from a four day losing streak. we keep bringing it up. it is one single percentage point. a little bit of economic data, let's cross over to michael mckee. michael: mixed news on the producer price index. ppi for final demand comes in 0.1 percent higher than forecast. there is again for a month over month basis. that puts us at up from 7.8%. it will raise some eyebrows. the good news, it comes in at 0.6% higher. that is what was forecast. it was down in july. year-over-year, it goes up to 0.7%. we are looking at producer price inflation. it is real, we've got to remember it does not translate directly into consumer cost. a lot of this is being absorbed by companies even though we see higher consumer prices in many areas. jonathan: yields are up by a couple of basis response. equity futures are still elevated at 0.4%. cpi in america? michael: that's the number that's going to matter for the markets. everybody likes to watch the cbi because it

jonathan: down to basis points. jonathan: moments away from some economic data.morning alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we have been venturing into negative territory, down two points. we have been fading a little bit over the last couple of hours. yields are down by one basis or two. your economic data is out. michael: some good news for a change, those who thought the economy was tanking because of the covid variant, the empire index for new york which is a tertiary index but it set the pattern for last month. it jumped again, 16 points. 46% of respondents said the business conditions had improved over the month. the new orders index is up and the shipment index is up and the unfilled orders index is up stop all good news out of new york and we will have to watch for philadelphia and the rest of those regional indexes and see if we are going to continue to get some good news. import prices are also what we've been watching and they declined. maybe some of the snow inflation story or transitory inflation story continues to hold. tom: that's two days in a

jonathan: why? why is it too early when we can see the property market and chinese gdp, can't we just make some assumptions that this is going to lead to slower growth out of china? >> our china economists think we have already troughed in terms of our growth. i continue to stand by that. tom: i look where we are. we have a reset for next year. you have been doing this for a few years. how far out are you able to look now with some form of confidence in setting up a spreadsheet, doing a sensitivity analysis? can you get out to the third week in november, or could you wander into 2022? >> i think we have to wonder into 2022. unfortunate, we have the bond market, and that tells us something about the expectations about what the market is thinking on a go forward basis. certainly you can imply what the bond market is thinking and then layer on top of that your expectations of what policy is going to be. i will give you an example. if you look at what the bond market is thinking in terms of the number o

jonathan: that's not -- no. jonathan: that's not what people experience. it is something to keep an eye on. such a polarizing debate get so divided in the world of a cocked -- the world of economics at the moment. good morning. balenciaga, i know you are a big balenciaga guy, tom. what are they charging for those shoes? tom: i don't know. it's a lot of money. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm rick agrippa. tropical storm nicholas came ashore on texas earlier today, now slowly moving -- i'm ritika gupta. tropical storm nicholas came ashore in texas earlier today, now slowly moving east. they are expecting floods across deep south the next few days. wall street executives and top chinese regulators will hold a virtual meeting on thursday on the agenda of beijing's crackdown of the private sector that has roiled the market. they will also discuss u.s.-china relations. in the u.k., a penalize recommended giving coronavirus booster shots will have the end over, and urges the shots begin this month. the critic g

jonathan: that's enough.isa: i think the charlie evans comments really highlight the point that blackrock was talking about, this sort of shallow path of rate hikes when they actually do start raising rates because they do expect this to largely be, and i know this is a dirty word, but transitory. there's nothing to give them a sense we are moving beyond what we have seen for the past decade or two. jonathan: they made a dirty word, didn't they? lisa: they did. i feel dirty. transitory. jonathan: your week ahead, chairman powell, secretary yellen coming up. a lot of central-bank decisions this week as well. u.s. data on friday, some ism's. earnings season two weeks away. tom: the central bank of pelosi, she's going to weigh in as well. jonathan: there's going to be about their on thursday. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. facebook is pausing work on instagram kids, it's project for people under the age of 13. the company says halt will give it time to work with parents,

jonathan: he came in it 8:23.laughter] jonathan: looking forward to breaking down the data with you. we will do that in just a moment. nice when mike mckee comes into the studio. you just know it's important. tom: headlines from the ecb. this is after david rubenstein's interview. jonathan: we are not out of the woods. the recovery in the euro zone is clearly underway. tom: that is what lisa said as we went to commercial in the last break. lisa: honestly try to translate that. jonathan: back from the brink, we are not out of the woods. lisa: it means fingers to the wind. jonathan: you two are joking about it, not me. i don't want to get in trouble with the ecb again. lisa: again? [laughter] jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with the 98% success rate and the more affordable weight loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. how can golo offer all of that? because it's not like