jonathan: i think i understood what you just said. jonathan: does that make sense?s that make sense? it seems to be the strategy from the democrats. lisa: how do you galvanize unity? he was one of the greatest unifying factors for democrats out there, trump was and it highlights some of the challenges in washington this morning. jonathan: futures are a bit of a snooze this morning. it's a bit of calm this morning. yields on a basis point, 10-year, up a couple of basis points on the front end, if you basis points this morning, that's your next stop for this market. earnings look good. apple, amazon tomorrow, then chairman powell on wednesday with payrolls two fridays away. this is bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress, and emotional

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> in an effort to help american workers and businesses. one u.s. official says china may not change its trade practices, and the u.s. needs a strategy that takes that into account. here in the u.k., chancellor richey soon at said he will spend $678 million to help people find jobs. household budgets are coming under strain after a cap on energy prices rose 12%. global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> we are going down from 6 trillion to 3 trillion, now one trillion. we have these conservatives that their baseline is zero. the agreement several months ago to proceed on that one bipartisan bill was that it was tied with our larger build back better agenda. both of these bills need to pass. both will not pass if people try to separate them. jonathan: congresswoman ocasio-cortez speaking there. your equ

jonathan: honestly. tom: it is a polishing cloth. jonathan: is that what it is?an use it for many different purposes. jonathan: i am sure you can. equity futures down 0.1% on the s&p. bit of a snooze this wednesday morning. we had all of the hype at the front end of the curve, with yields picking up, and then this conversation about higher interest rates, kind of fades to the background as markets had in the other direction. just a little weaker, but 0.1%. the doom and gloom not quite captured by earnings season just yet, but may be the big industrial companies where you have expected to shine a bit more brightly haven't reported yet. tom: we've got a lot more to come. david wilson with great leadership on that. over not a big company but nevertheless, could be indicative of some is the surprise we could see in the cyclical area. jonathan: margins are looking better. from new york city this morning, good morning. heard on radio, seen on tv, your equity market 15, 20 points away from all-time highs in america. just an unbelievable turnaround. we are down 5%. who b

jonathan: get it done. from new york, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. i'm talking about. tom: neither do i. [laughter] ♪ ♪ >> the market seems to be buying into the fed's inflation dismissal. >> it is clear inflation is going to remain elevated and that will be an issue. >> i don't think interest rates are the cause of the uncertainty or risk in the equity market. >> for the economy it is important but for the market it is about earnings. >> there is plenty of demand across the board. that issue is can that demand be fulfilled? announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. on radio and

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. futures up. advancing 7/10 of 1%. tom: i have nothing to say. jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. >> with the first word news. democrats are signaling they will accept senate republican leader mitch mcconnell's offer to raise the debt ceiling which would allow the immediate risk of default. it increases another political fight near the end of the year. a federal judge has temporarily block texas' new ban on most abortions. he said the law outsourcing enforcement to bounty hunting members of the public was contrived to get around a constitutional right. it is a major win for the biden administration, which has sued to overturn the ban. damage from the coronavirus expand well beyond the virus according to a study from a health system in st. louis. it found even people never need hospitalizations are in danger of developing heart failure. in china travel during the , so-called golden week national vacation was down by a third from pre-pandemic levels. government measures to contain coronavirus outbreaks prom

jonathan: thank you, sir.mar agee, head of investment -- omar agee lahr, charles schwab oamr aguilar, charles schwab head of investment. markets when they say 60% off, 10% off you run away but when it comes to any other market, like shopping for you, people gravitate toward it. lisa: are you shopping online? jonathan: just got the email on my work account. 60% off everything. lisa: are you going to buy it? jonathan: it gets some people excited, that's the point. when it comes to market people second guess themselves and goes back to something i said, easy money has never been made. tom: the famous phrase of the gentleman from tennessee, sir john templeton, he would say, shares are on sale. jonathan: shares are on sale. tech is on sale. lisa: are they? tom: there you go. [laughter] lisa: if you look at facebook for example, the shares are up dramatically on the year. amazon not so much. apple only up 5%. but if you take a look, once your starting point? we had such a huge rally earlier in the year. tom: that is

jonathan: up 1/10 of 1% on the s&p. ♪ jonathan: remind me not to get involved in major league baseball i am told the red sox are tied with the mariners, not the toronto blue jays. they are in the other corner. i appreciate that. from new york city, good morning. the price action, posited by more than 1/10 of 1%. -- positive by more than 1/10 of 1%. the russell up about 1/10. morgan stanley repeated yesterday, corporate america has some explaining to do when it comes to margins. earnings season will be fascinating, q3 as we look ahead to q4. credit suisse and andrew garth with a fantastic note, talking about the only major sector to outperform when inflation expectations rise and pmi's fall, energy. look at the outperformance, 11 percentage points higher over the last month. tech down 5%, 6%, 15, 16 percentage points energy relative to tech. that's a monster move. tom: i wonder what you do on sell side versus what we see from the strategists looking for higher oil prices. jonathan: we've got to have that discussion. 11% on the month, remarkable. on the treasuries, up 18, 20 basis points

jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." coming up, inflation warnings. american economic data sending conflicting signals and markets pricing and early fed move. we begin with wall street heavyweights pushing back. >> the idea of transitory -- >> transitory-- persistent transitory. >> inflation is running at a must -- much higher pace. >> it is not temporary. >> that is why the fed is starting to indicate it is time to move. >> the rise in wages -- >> not transitory -- >> the longer they wait, the greater the risk. jonathan: joining us now is krishna memani, marilyn watson, and matt brill. it is with the economic data, i have been scratching my head or try to reconcile this. near record highs, consumer sentiment highest since 2011 pick and make sense of that? marilyn: it is very complex. when you look at the labor market and the rate, it is below for break 2020. however, i do think we will start to see easing in the labor market, when you think on appointment insurance is running off we are seeing more people able to reente

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro.e to go to the auction block. in europe, raising 34 billion euros this week, a green sovereign offering in the u.k. and worst ever twenty-year auction in the u.s. this week, missing the mark. and carnival returning to the junk bond market, upsizing its offer and pushing weaker supply close to $8 million. my colleagues include zach, still with us, and mike collins. bank of america coming out with this data the week, turkey cutting rates, it is the 1000th rate cut, a cut once every three trading days. all we have seen is hikes. can you tell me what is happening in the emerging markets? mike: china will be joining the rate cut story. china is always the big story in emerging markets. and they are, unfortunately, slowing really quickly. it's not just the property sector, some of it is secular, tighter regulations, but certainly they are outsized relative to other their measure of economic activity. and as the air comes out of that, the rates are at 3%, they will have to come down. but ever

jonathan: they are already moving. let's look at the front end in new zealand, the u.k., and the u.s. in new zealand they have already hike. the u.k. is encouraging the move at the front end. the united states is doing anything about. this is becoming a bit of a market test for chairman powell going into november 3. tom: what you see, and this goes to the central banks, is the linking in of energy costs, hydrocarbons into other commodities. i was younger at the last time i talked about that. jonathan: central banks are starting to respond. we are seeing it in the u.k. much more so. could they hike? goldman says november. than it is onto the fed. forget about tapering. it is on. it is what they talk about around the interest rate discussion that has been sparked up over the last couple of months. lisa: if you take a look at futures contracts, traders have brought forward two rate hikes forward over the last year. we have a slew of housing data. this has been the one factor that has been the question for fed officials. t

[laughter] jonathan: equities up 0.4%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: with the first word news, i'm laura wright. the u.s. and chinese government have made progress in their economic and trade negotiations. treasury secretary janet yellen and china's vice premier liu he held their second call in around four months. beijing described the conversation as pragmatic, candid, and productive. china has repeated that the u.s. should lift tariffs on chinese exports imposed during the trump administration. senate democrats have moved closer to an agreement on president biden's economic agenda. senator joe manchin expressed optimism there could be a deal this week. he has been pushing to shrink the size of the social spending package. still, somehow slum acres raised doubts about the terms of the deal being discussed -- somehow slum acres -- some house lawmakers raised doubts about the terms of the deal being discussed. starting on november 8, singapore is in the open so-called travel lanes with 10 other countries, inclu

jonathan: any other one-liners, tom? tom: wages. jonathan: futures positive 0.1%. tom: let's start the show. jonathan: euro-dollar from her -- euro-dollar firmer. crude, $78.85 now. your equity market treading water going into this one. lisa: this is really the question. how much does it take to change the needle in equity markets, and bond markets? 8:00 a.m., september payrolls. the expectation is for 500,000. bloomberg economics estimates above where ellen zentner is. the question is, how much does this move the needle for the unemployment rate? how much does this move the needle for participation, and how much does this move spec for fed policy? 10:00 a.m., labor secretary marty walsh speaking with our very own jonathan ferro. he's going to be speaking about what to expect with how sticky wage pressures are, how to create a virtual wage increase spiral because it takes more than one, two, three years of increases in wages before we get that. at 11:30 am, we hear from president biden, busy on absolutely everything right now. he wants to talk about how great the l

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: we begin with the big issue.eling inflation jitters. >> inflation is more persistent. >> going from transitory to being here for a while. >> oil and natural gas prices. >> gas prices pushing extremely high. >> gas prices skyrocketing. >> inflation is hot. >> you will see inflation rise. >> inflation is not going down. >> we have persisted inflation. >> this is

jonathan: good morning.s is bloomberg surveillance, your equity market unchanged, treading water going into the payrolls report. 500 k is the estimate. the fed decision it, what will it take? most people think it's around 200 plus. yields are higher by a couple of basis points. foreign-exchange euro is stronger. to round things out, we keep writing higher. we are getting closer to that 80. tom: $80 on west texas intermediate is an emotional number. i really want to focus here on what we saw yesterday in the markets which drove the vix nicely under 20. it's just one session, the bears were humbled yesterday. there were a lot of bears out there. jonathan: we can talk to lisa about that in a moment. it feels like we kicked the can down on the debt ceiling. maybe the supply-side issues are starting to fade. they are not getting worse. lisa: you are trying to get me to be bullish. tom: we are failing. lisa: some shipping costs are coming down remarkably from china to los angeles dropping 40%. is this good news? i

jonathan: kailey leinz with us today, tom keene, jonathan ferro.orward to more of that production down the road. tom: you are so sensitive this morning. jonathan: the question i get the most often is " do you actually like each other?" that is pure love! this is bloomberg. ♪ this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like the chance to win a universal parks & resorts trip to hollywood or orlando to attend halloween horror nights. or xfinity rewards members, get the inside scoop on halloween kills. just say "watch with" into your voice remote for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks your rewards. moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you

jonathan: bob miller? >> yes. jonathan: bob michele?the field has been tilted too long to borrowers. it is time to tilted back to savers. tapering starts. jonathan: very go. that sounded like a speech, bob michele. the third and final question, we talked about price issues all the time. they are well known and well discussed. i am trying to understand if they are peaking. give me a from your perspective. do you think supply-side issues have peaked yet? bob michele? >> no. jonathan: winnie cisar? >> no. jonathan: brad miller? -- bob miller? >> no, i think we are to quarters to three quarters away from where we see a genuine deceleration. jonathan: wow we will talk about this for a while. -- while. we will talk about this for a while. thank you after that downside surprise on the payroll report. the light is still green for tapering on november 3. from new york, this was bloomberg real yield. i will see you next week, same time, same place. this is bloomberg tv. ♪ this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like

jonathan: that's right. tom: seven republicans and everett said it's the people's republic of cambridge. you have to go more narrow. jonathan: on a very serious note, there is a zero covid strategy in australia. are they going to move away from that? tom: new zealand last night said yes they are. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, donovan ferro. futures up 15 on the s&p advancing a third of 1%. from new york city this morning, good morning. on radio and tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. facebook lends a global power service outage. facebook, instagram and whatsapp were blind for hours. more than 2.7 billion people rely on them to communicate, do business. a facebook whistleblower is set to share what she calls the frightening truth with the senate committee today. the plants testify the social network misled the public and shareholders about the harmful effect of its platform. democrats may have to live with a less generous expansion then they wanted. they may have to

jonathan: we can hardly wait. tom, you have been talking about this, the resilience of corporations. they hiked prices in the third quarter by 4.1%. the most since 2012. unilever is the stock i want to bring up. hiking prices since 2012. that's a change. jonathan: -- tom: unilever is that staple along with nestle. they are managing for a lower nominal gdp. a lower nominal growth. they have a tough decision to make but a history of making those tough decisions. jonathan: what's fascinating is that there's a consumer price tolerance. i think that's what we are looking for. tom: it is. they will take the price increase. i don't see a can of tomatoes where you cut out a tomato. i have not seen that yet. the real focus is can we raise prices and will the consumer accept it. the answer seems to be i guess so. jonathan: this is up for 3%. tom: that's y mistake for 2021. jonathan: there will be more. we did have a conversation about the shape of this cycle. can you walk me through my this is different if you think it will

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro.alk a little about football, inflation, and why the economy is slowing and could slow more quickly. an interesting one coming up. equity futures up .4%. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> an exclusive bnp paribas open update for bloomberg. the first finals are set and indian wells. clinching his second come back win in as many days to reach the final four. the victory was the bulgarian's 100th at a masters event and his first in two years. he will face cameron norrie. on the women's side, she continued her excellent run with a straight-set win. the win puts the 23-year-old within reach of her made in 1000 crown. don't forget tennis channel's exclusive daily coverage aired daily at 1:00 p.m. eastern. it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sw

jonathan: alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro.ust a little bit softer. record highs again at the close on tuesday. into the bond market, yields are lower by couple of basis points, 1.5887. and crude, a lot of weakness in the commodity complex this morning, crude 83.54, negative 1.3%. laura: with the first word news, i am laura wright. democrats are trying a new and risky approach to get jeff bezos to pay for president biden's agenda. those with at least $1 billion in assets and those who earn at least $100 million three years in a row. meanwhile, a separate tax would require companies that report more than $1 billion in profit to pay at least a 15% tax rate. president biden is zeroing in on whether to renominate jerome powell for another term as chair of the federal reserve. the president has started to meet with top white house and treasury aids to review candidates. he has not settled on a choice, and it is unclear whether he is leaning toward reappointing powell or replacing him. bloomberg has learned that the maker of british

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, "bloomberg real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathancoming up, inflation pressure is lingering into year-end as well as sensitivity and the bond market. we begin with the big issue, kicking off q4. >> we are still dealing with a lot of uncertainty -- >> ringing alarm bells -- >> the supply chain issues -- >> the real question will be on the supply side. >> this is for nonprofit. >> inflationary pressures -- >> inflation is not going down. >> the fed has said they are not changing policy. >> inflation is above the target rate. >> it's unlikely they can get to their target. >> no one wants the fed slamming on the brakes. >> the stories say that investors and markets are climbing a wall of worry again. we don't know how that worked out. >> the question is what you do as an investor. >> to help us navigate our our guests. let's start with you, sebastian. what is the playbook with you right now? >> the concerns you highlighted on with the program are definitely valid. we saw strong ism, we got a strong consumer. the delta variant cases seem

[laughter] jonathan: professor king. tom: but you got to lose money. jonathan: i agree. my money. [laughter] jonathan: i will give him $50 come alisa. just open him on account. futures down 0.3% on the s&p. equities are a little bit softer. from new york, on radio, on tv, with crude rallying, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i think the economy is on track to expand. >> we are seeing a labor market adjusting. >> showing diversions and that is going to get bigger. >> macro shifts in place before the pandemic haven't changed. >> this is not the typical recovery. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: good morning. we

jonathan: 6:47?hter] this is bloomberg. ♪ loomberg. ♪ (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with a 98% success rate and a more affordable weight-loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. no stimulants, no starving, just results, results you'll keep for life. with over 2 million satisfied customers, golo is the new way to lose weight. go to golo.com and get your life back... -with golo. -golo! >> the growth story remains very strong come even after the loosening of the pandemic, the worry that there might be a spend competition. but so far, the cannabis sector seems to be holding up very strong. jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, on radio and tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." what a morning. in about 20 minutes' time, we have earnings from jp morgan. equity futures positive .6% on the s&p, nasdaq 100, the russell doing ok, up 5, rising .2 4%. fantastic reporting from

leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. down 17 on the s&p, negative zero point 4%. on the nasdaq, down around 0.6%. that was thomas costerg of p ictet. after a difficult payrolls report, he was the man looking for it. he came close to it, just 200,000 away. yields are higher by three or four basis points to -0.115%. a revision from goldman over the weekend for the path forward. the path forward for this year, a small correction. but next year, much more so. tom: let's get to it. our conversation on the state of the american economy, jan hatzius joins us with goldman sachs. i want to fold it into a slow down and the fiscal oomph to america. did you adjust your gdp down because the fiscal party is over, the fiscal punch bowl is being taken away? jan: that is certainly the reason why we think the economy is going to slow quite a bit in 2022. we have it going to just under 2% by the fourth quarter of next year. in the near term, i think there are still some reasons to expect stronger growth. the trend is down, but i don't thin

jonathan: he is wearing great today. get to some stock movers for you. >> a lot going on today. tesla is moving higher. cars delivered in the most recent period. 20,000 above the longer term average. they actually fell. the lowest on record. this was the most heavily shorted stock. so quite a turnaround. flirting with 800 bucks a share. a rally from last week. really have not found any out there. this could be a game changer for the rest of the space as well. they are all down once again. philip the board. interesting for the airlines. getting the upgrade today. a lot of the airfare carriers are faring much better as we move into the post-pandemic period. tom: it is important that you brought this up. the zeitgeist of expanding premium economy is all part of the new domestic game. >> airlines have a lot more flexibility. you rip out some of those normal economies to make a premium economy. it just means that you pay more. i cannot see tom in the economy. jonathan: tom, is it time to deliver this premium? tom: i think the

jonathan: it is persistent.ields have been moving higher off of early august, and threatening to go higher from here. in the fx market, talk a little bit about that dollar strength. euro-dollar -0.5%. lisa: to become, the stories go very much together. the idea that you have a risk off mood, bonds are not a haven. what is the threshold for the fed to start tapering monthly bond purchases? that threshold has gotten a lot lower. 8:15 am, we get the adp unemployment change. this is not necessarily that indicative. what is the threshold for the federal reserve? a lot of people are saying the bar has been lowered. they want to stop buying bonds, even if the economy is showing some strains. at 11:00, president biden hosting some banks to talk about the debt ceiling. expect a lot of discussion about the potential risks of defaulting. does this matter to anyone? the t-bill yields have been rising. however, still not indicating the kind of distress we saw back in 2011. today is the second day of the bloomberg invest conf

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro.his is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. congressional democrats have made headway in breaking the stalemate over president biden's economic agenda by getting rid of or trimming parts of the multitrillion dollar tax and spending package. progress came after the president met with various lawmakers yesterday. expected targets for cuts include tuition free community college and a shortening of the expanded child tax care reddit stench of -- tax care credit extension. able kino -- a volcano in southern japan erupted. the bundesbank president stepping down from his post at the end of the year. a statement from the central bank says he submitted his resignation to the german president for personal reasons. the 53-year-old has been germany's central bank chief for more than a decade and is considered one of the more hawkish members of the european governing council. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700

jonathan: i'm with you. personally think this is such a difficult moment to address because you can't really make assumptions based on such narrow frames of reference. i keep going back to the quote that basically come these wage increases have to be persistent across years before you get that inflationary wage spike. what do you do with that if you are in the market having to trade on a daily basis? jonathan: equities up by 1%, we advance by 42. a fascinating note from citigroup's morning. just really heartfelt and wonderful, what rob buckland over at citi is doing, honoring tobias levkovich. i will let their words speak for us. "we mourn the passing of our dear colleague and as are some of these to his family. we renamed our panic indicator as the left of it -- as the levkovich indicator. " i know i speak for us and the whole of the team, we will, too. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the senate is closing in on a deal that would potentially avert a debt crisis for now. then, congress wo

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. agnostic, right.g up on the open, monica dicenso. looking forward to that conversation later this morning. equity futures up a little more than a 10th of 1% on the s&p. nasdaq 100 futures advanced 131%. yields unchanged. a turnaround in the commodity market -- nasdaq 100 futures advanced one third of 1%. euro-dollar negative for little more than a 10th of 1%. the week begins tomorrow with j.p. morgan earnings kicking off earnings season. retail sales coming up on friday as we work our way through earnings on wall street. from new york on radio and on tv, this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: general motors says south korea's electronics has agreed to pay for the recall of chevy volt electric vehicles due to manufacturing defects in the battery modules and lg was the battery supplier. gm says the agreement will offset $2 billion in charges. in washington is that up to the house to avert the immediate threat of a catastrophic default . lawmakers are scheduled to vote on a short-term increase to the government's

jonathan: i missed that one. when you begin the sentence with a little bit of amateur it doesn't bring a lot of credibility. tom: what i like about feldman's he's got even margins and ups, united postal service just comes out and they raise their operating margin to 13%. jonathan: tony joining us. tony, this cycle is moving so quickly. the center for the outlook. tony: we'll elect to about the yield curve and movement speaks to this idea of a fast-moving cycle. we are probably at midcycle meaning look at the unemployment rate, what is a late cycle condition. that lower rate can be achieved for full employment next year. the federal reserve will be in the mid-threes by the end of next year. it's important to be on your toes, it's a -- it's important to be active with portfolio management to be thinking more about security selection and regional selection, one final note, it is flattened reasonably and that something that happens later in the cycle. the federal reserve is raising the short-term rate. tom: two cent

jonathan: the week begins. good morning, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and i am jonathan ferro. tom keene put it in a headline, the week begins on wednesday. tom: it begins tomorrow. the inflation picture with all its complexities. jonathan: it is a test for the big story we have discussed for week, the upside risks for inflation. the upside risk for inflation. tom: the conversation we had yesterday was important. he implied we need to be very careful. you can get back to a 4%, nominal gdp. that is a topline gdp. i don't think anybody is mentally prepared for that. jonathan: we can pretend it is a monday and welcome back in lisa and brahma wits. -- risa abramowitz. -- lisa abramowicz. lisa: the idea that consumer sentiment is declining and this, white is confidence in the reflation story picking up and we are seeing small is this optimism, disappointing. people's optimism seems to be waning on a consumer level. what gives? jonathan: look out for the fed speak. lisa will give you the da

jonathan: two events still to go. goldman sachs earnings and retail sales. 8:30, a couple of hours away. tom: to me the real issue is the x axis of the slow down of this booming economy and the tilt this week as may be we do not get back down to the low single-digit numbers, 1% or 2% economic growth, maybe that is pushed out longer. jonathan: your equity market positive. lisa you will run us through the events into the weekend. the pboc says everything will be ok. lisa: they have been trying to tell everybody they have the situation under control and encourage banks to lend more when it comes to housing debt. this time they say they are urging developers and shareholders to fulfill that obligation. please play your debt -- please pay your debt. also saying ever grande risk -- the fact they are saying says they are concerned. jonathan: we are headed for a second week of gains. your equity market is positive. tom keene, you've seen it all week. the bloom -- the gloom crew taking one on the chin. tom: the week started on

jonathan ferro.m new york, we begin with a big issue, democrats looking to wrap up a deal. >> it does not excite me that much. >> it is going to be lower than $3.5 trillion. 50% of that. >> we are in that ballpark. >> the trick is how to pay for it. >> corporate taxes may be off the table. >> how are they going to pay for this? >> other tax possibilities. >> it concerns me. >>

jonathan: thank you.ng into this climate change conference, i wonder what he says to the europeans after the russians have signaled that they are not going to boost the gas supply if they are against nord stream 2. we've heard that message on repeat from the russians. it is hardly surprising. but at a moment like this one, it carries more significance. tom: yes, and don't forget the chinese might come in and adjust the dialogue. we will have complete coverage of that, but to me, there's a lot of back stories. as i mentioned before, the number one is these elites have to talk to the rest of the world, who is skeptical. jonathan: have you booked your flights yet? tom: no. i am making a two-goal string. jonathan: going to scotland -- making it to gulfstream. jonathan: going to scotland. not sure it is approved yet. [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a

jonathan: that is good to hear, tom.e divan sing a little more than zero point -- futures advancing a little more than 0.5%. in euro-dollar -- in foreign-exchange coming euro-dollar $1.1556. we -- we add $0.15 to the price of wti. this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: with the first word news, and leigh-ann gerrans. it is up to the house to avert the immediate threat of a catastrophic default today. lawmakers are scheduled to vote on a increase to the government's borrowing limit. it is good for less than two months, when congress faces an even bigger showdown over debt and spending. oil has held above $80 today. west texas intermediate futures were little changed. there are expectations that a power crisis from asia to europe will lift demand, and that opec+ alliance could add to the upward price pressure. chief scientific officer of johnson & johnson is retiring. they have taken on some of the world's most imposing infectious disease challenges, including the coronavirus. he is leaving at the end of the year. the announcement

jonathan: i like that. tom: nice plug there. jonathan: thank you, sir, as always. sam stovall of cfra. speaking of ratings, the team of bloomberg put this one together. tesla, if you go to the market cap of tesla right now, $870 billion coming into today. then you go to the credit. bbb down to bb, that is the line between the two. you've got a junk rated credit in the credit market with a market cap of almost $1 trillion. you find that odd? tom: odd doesn't describe it. jonathan: when have we ever talked about that before? tom: what i find amazing here, shout out to matthew wendler, our founder and editor-in-chief at bloomberg news, all i know is the disciples are on board and the critics are still there. jonathan: it is incredible, to see a bb credit with close to $1 trillion. lisa: people were completely dismissing their plan to profitability. there was this key existential question of whether this could ever be profit. -- ever be profitable. now they have recorded nine straight quarters of profitability. all of a sudden a new company with a lot of hopes and drea

jonathan: good to catch up. o'rourke, jones trading chief strategist on the earnings season that is about to begin unofficially this wednesday with jp morgan. the banks always first. tom: it is the clarity of it. we know all of the banks are different but there conference calls are different. i will suggest not just bank analyst but the street as a generalization will be on the edge of their seats from the j.p. morgan analyst call in the media call as well. interesting to see whether jamie dimon participates as people one to get a sense of their town, not even in q4 but into next year. jonathan: we have rallied hard into these earnings year to date and every last couple of weeks. kailey: sky high expectations and it raises the question, can the fundamental support that or are the banks that tied to the fundamentals. is a more about the macro story? if you have higher rates that will benefit the banks and everything else does not matter. jonathan: thank you for putting in shift and working hard. we appreciate it.

jonathan: most people will agree on that. we are talking about, given the tone of the conversation to the first, so this program, we have a pretty decent set up. lisa: it is decent, but there are concerns. all of the notes were negative on the ism, even though people were talking about persistent frictions in the market boating poorly for the potential outlook for the labor market. jonathan: equities are getting hammered by about 2%. tom: you are paid per day a check. that's like derek cole getting paid per pitch. that is a beautiful full -- beautiful thing. jonathan: we are negative one point. 2%. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. >> it is a strategy shift by the white house. president biden's team is trying to broker a scale back. advisors are weighing the liberal policy priorities against moderate concerns about inflation and tax x. meanwhile, the president is trying to drum up support for the plan in michigan. those of his plan are complicit in america's decline. the fed reserve chair powel

jonathan: we said it.eptember was this big month that if we didn't get some healing, we would have trouble in this market. the fact is we are backup there near all-time highs lisa: we shift back to a month where it is not just about the new normal, but what is the new normal? unilever increase prices and were able to pass it. they also say we have not seen the peak of price increases. how do we price that in? how is that received by a market that is wary of inflation? jonathan: do we achieve that for percent gdp profile that some economists are looking for? that is the additional part of this conversation we've got to have. this morning, equities are softer. we are down 12 on the s&p , coming in 0.3%. in the bond market, 12 basis points short of the high of the year on the u.s. 10 year. tom: the linkage of bonds and equities, i am not sure what to make of it. i think we are just waiting for fed flow and earnings flow of information. jonathan: one central bank is going the other way. i'm just going to bring

jonathan: thank you. tom: what great is the line shows up and i learned something about the bloomberg. there is a chart that says you should own. it's blinking on my screen that it you are an idiot to be triple leveraged. jonathan: there are bigger soccer games. a good interview later. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> president biden says the u.s. has a commitment to protect taiwan and would come to its defense if attacked by china. the town hall event in baltimore, the president said he did not want a cold war but wants china to understand the u.s. will not step back or change its views. germany has recorded its steepest one-day increase in covid-19 cases and more than five months. there were 116 deaths reported which is the most since mid may. officials have expressed optimism they would not need additional virus restrictions in the last few days. 66% of the population has been vaccinated. shares of snapchat tumbled after apple issues are weighing on advertising spending and that is impacting its f

jonathan: tom keene and jonathan ferro with kaylee. your equity market is at an all-time high into friday. seven-day gains into friday. they are of three .1%. a couple of basis points, but it is a two-year hike to get your attention. the i -- market is implying a maturity of inflation. from new york, this is bloomberg. jonathan: live from new york city for our audience on tv and radio, this is jonathan ferro alongside tom keene, and lisa will be back with us on monday. this morning, we are with kaylee. the market is up 1/10 of 1%. the bond market is getting all of the attention. yields are down even with all-time highs, and the bond strategist on the front end of the yield curve, higher inflation expectations, as well. it is a sharp break even. we are breaking back max into thousand two. this is the breakeven, and what it is is tracking the real yield curve from the closest nominal treasury maturity, so let's take fives on fives, and you come up with just short of three. we had three earlier. that is the implied rate of inflation on ma

jonathan: lisa abramowicz, tom keene, jonathan ferro. equity market up 0.3%.his is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) if you've struggled to lose weight, you might think you were born with a slow metabolism, but what you may have is insulin resistance. fat becomes trapped inside your body and it becomes very difficult to lose weight. now there's golo. golo works to reverse the effects of insulin resistance, increase metabolic efficiency, and targets stubborn belly fat. join over two million people who have found a smarter way to lose weight and get healthier. go to golo.com and change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. jonathan: live from new york city on radio and tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. here is price action for you. equity market up 19. nasdaq, up by 0.3%.four days of gains on the s&p. within 1% of all-time highs. here is a single name -- danone. their stock is down. this from the cfo, we expect 2020 to on the same level as -- we expect 2022 on the same level as 2021. stock trading -- that stock trading negative in france. let us quickly finish on the bond mar

jonathan: we assume that, yes.onversation is december, when they work out what to do with the flick's ability and the bond buying programs. tom: are we going to see a 2025 headline? jonathan: i want to see the forecast. i am with you. candy t word hold up? tom: the t word is what, trillion? jonathan: transitory. tom: i thought it was trillion. two point $5 trillion, apple. microsoft. google, i can't do the math. $1.7 trillion, amazon. tesla, barely over $1 trillion. david wilson come ago -- david wilson, go. david: compare it against all of the other automakers in developed markets as were present at by the msci automobiles index. tesla is equal to all of them combined. tom: how much did gm grow yesterday? david: 1.5%, basically. if you compare that to the total market value of all of the other companies in the msci world index, you find that one days worth of increase in tesla exceeded all of the other total market, except for toyota, ad $281 billion. tom: is this on electric cars? how to the other electric car pe

jonathan: i know it is. tom: -- jonathan: equity futures up a third of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> house democrats went home last night without voting on that infrastructure bill. nancy pelosi will try again today. she is being held up by a fight between moderate and progressive democrat. they will not vote until the spending bill passes both houses of congress. they are planning a stopgap funding bill that maintains funding levels until november -- december 3. janet yellen has said that if congress does not raise the debts dealing the government may not be able to pay its bills. european natural gas prices climbed to a record 100 euros. europe is struggling to find enough: gas. -- enough coal and gas. according to an interim analysis of a late stage trial, -- another hurdle for the global economy. a metal used in everything from car parts to phone chips is scarce. global news, 24 hours a day, i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. >> you have acted to make our banking system laissez and that -- less safe, and that makes you a dangerous man to head up the fed

jonathan: $19. lisa: the idea that they tried to make an apple watch premium that was how many thousands of dollars and people actually said, well, the technology is going to be obsolete in two years. tom: lisa, one of your offspring is going to be going, i need the loaded macbook m1x or whatever. jonathan: with the $19 cloth. lisa: when i say you better clean the screen, they will say, i've got something for that. [laughter] jonathan: i've got this. it comes free with your glasses. what is that about, tom? tom: whom i to talk about it? jonathan: we are in the wrong business. we've got to make some, tom. tom: mark gurman, thank you for your reporting on apple. i am reporting the data check, and i have got to say, oil has cratered. jonathan: cratered to what, $83? [laughter] there's people on radio who might not get the sarcasm. up on crude through $83.27. euro strength, your dollars $1.1655. now within 1% of all-time highs. tom: we have come up over 6% off the nasdaq bottom. in boston, washington, s

jonathan: very much so. bundle them all in together, and i really can't say how wells fargo has separated away from these other banks. they all have their own stories, foibles, etc., but to me, wells fargo is removed -- kenley on is better -- can leon is utter at that than any of us are -- better at that than any of us are. help us with the distinction -- how separate are they from bank of america, j.p. morgan, and citigroup? ken: they are handcuffed with their ability to grow assets, so they have to be selective with where to get the best profit for the return. as far as investors, i have to disagree -- bank of america looks like a clean quarter. everything is firing on all signals. wells fargo, they have a bigger delta opportunity if they can improve businesses. with wells fargo, the velocity of mortgages, refi is a big engine for wells fargo in they have another big delta on the card business -- they still have a national platform for the consumer, so it is not always who is the best and who is the worst,

jonathan: stay close.lso got steady group coming up -- got citigroup coming up at the top of the hour. morgan stanley up by 1.65%. bank of america numbers tidy, likewise with jp morgan, again with morgan stanley. let's talk to stephen biggar now, director of financial research at argus. what is the number one take away for you? stephen: certainly it has been a powerful third-quarter for market activity. equity underwriting, ipo activity in particular. over 100 companies went public in the third quarter. if you include specs, over 500 -- includes -- include spac's, over 500 companies. another important one would be loan growth. we saw that over the summer, according to fed data. that is starting to pick up again. for the regional banks, you've got an improving story there as well. tom: james gorman has the respect of everyone on wall street. without question, he was the manager of the decade with the move to wealth management. everybody likes to talk about this other stuff. what i see is $6.2 trillion with

jonathan: hear, hear. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: i'm leigh-ann gerrans with bloomberg's "first word news." a coalition deal to form a new government. agreeing on the basic principles of a ruling alliance. olaf scholz will precede angela merkel. a global energy crunch, oil futures hit $85 a barrel for the first time in three years. futures jumping as natural gas prices hit records. raising revenue for oil producers, risking slowing down economies emerging from the pandemic driven slump. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> all of our corrections have been really caused by the fed over tightening. they are telegraphing they are going to keep the market high and use the labor market for transitory inflation. i think they may be right but we have to push it way into 22 at the earliest. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morni

jonathan: what does apple know that we don't? matt: apple knows that they can borrow for cheap and they can continue to turn out maturities. but apple is under leveraged. when you have a lot of cash on the balance sheet and you have to figure out what to do with it, you can use it to buy back stock. i think you will see the large caps grow into their capital structure. it is not normal to think about a company of $2 trillion to think about that being a normal company. the traditional company is paying down debt right now, because they have been fearful about access to capital they didn't have in 2020. 70 like apple will say -- somebody apple will say, it won't hurt her credit as much. -- hurt us as -- hurt our credit as much. jonathan: matthew r.o.e., thank you. -- matthew brill, thank you. lisa: they don't have to, why not load it up? jonathan: and they have been doing that. leverage trends back to pre-pandemic conditions. encourage that encouraging, isn't it? lisa: because rates are so low so basically it looks better on the ba

jonathan: sure.57 minutes away to inflation, the published inflation is going to be omg, we are all going to die. the adults are watching cleveland, dallas, some of the atlanta statistics. they are watching core cpi to come back down to where it was. the gloom crew doesn't believe that. jonathan: what direction has it been heading in recently? tom: it is a little bit elevated, yes. it is a little bit elevated, no question about it. jonathan: we can talk about it later. tens, 1.5682%. let's get you some movers and a deep dive on this jp morgan numbers and say good morning to romaine. romaine: overall a decent quarter, and revenue that beat by a mile. some of that came because of the additional release of those reserves. in the fic business, about a 20% drop, but still relatively in line with that investment fees. it is pretty much what is keeping the stock afloat, up about 0.3% in the premarket. we should point out the leverage ratios also look good. the slr right around 5.5%. it's a relatively health