--athan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes, this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ comingp, valuations remain elevated, volatility sinks. the epicenter of the reflation trade comes unstuck and china's deleveraging campaign rocks commodities. where are the investors who turned bullish? we start with a big issue. is low volatility a sign of investor complacency? >> we see that in equities, in credit, in interest rates, really across the board, markets are looking past almost all risks out there. >> the fix is very low and you have no real sense the markets are starting to crack. if the fed pushes their luck and titans too fast, i think that will change. seeyou are going to need to real evidence of inflation building. i happen to believe that is a real possibility on the back end of this year. right now, i think it's a bit -- i think the vix has it right. >> if the market is going to be that calm, you need to leverage your positions. you will get to a tipping point at some state. davis is here with me in new york. enough -- oksana aronov. the theme of the week has been low vo

jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. with 30 minutes dedicated to the fixed income, this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, the biggest crisis of the trump presidency breaks the calm on wall street. investors ask, is the trump trade dead? treasury yields grind down. will the chaos in washington throw chair yellen of course? is it a wake-up call for em? we start with the big issue. a week of messy politics. it finally breaks the calm on wall street. >> ultimately, you want to have a functioning washington. we are still the most important government and economy in the world. if that all comes to a screeching halt because of these issues, that is not good for anyone. >> that is the thing we have to gauge. do people have confidence that this administration can not only get the big names out there, but deliver on them? >> if you want to keep everyone happy, including his base, he has to do real policy stuff and not just send out tweets. >> this trump trade that we have embraced and that has driven the market to

i'm jonathan ferro.s is "bloomberg best" your weekly review of the most business important news, analysis and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. this week began with an unexpected change from one of the big three u.s. automakers. vonnie: a management shakeup at ford replacing the ceo. >> it was a bit of a surprise. there have been some pressure for ford because the stock had fallen so much during mark fields's tenure, and it was last week during the shareholder meeting, bill ford was defending the company to the shareholders, but he never mentioned mark fields by name. it kind of looked like there'd be some kind of shakeup at ford, but it was a surprise that mark fields did get pushed out and replaced by jim hackett. >> i have never seen such a time in our industry where technology and competitors and everything is converging to drive real change. it is very helpful at a time like that to have a leader who is very experienced in driving transformational change, and fortunately, we hav

i'm jonathan ferro.want to head to the auction block, where apple had its first euro debt sale 2015. $2.8ech giant raised billion to fund share buybacks, dividend payments, and expansion plans. $11 billion of 10-year tips march the biggest share in data is 2003. in brazil, the political data around president temer pushes on sales. for months, investing in brazil has been a breeze. that changed abruptly amid reports that president temer authorized illegal payments to a lawmaker that authorized the impeachment of his predecessor. ofh me is not quarterback morgan stanley, james barrineau of schroder investment, and lisa abramowicz of bloomberg. you talked about how much of a surprise this was. jim: the market reacted like it was a shock. this is brazil. there was always been a taint around him and this massive uncertainty since the corruption scandal, which is now two years old began advancing. there was always a suspicion that it might reach into temer, and now it seems like it might be confirmed. lisa: yo

." ♪ ♪ jonathan: i am jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg "real yield."to head to the auction block now. the u.s. treasury with three main offering so far this week. i want to focus on the $34 billion 5-year note sale. 23% of the total, the least and -- in about a year. look at the moody, the pipeline for those bond sales dropped. it continues a borrowing slow down in the moody market. where there has been no slowdown was in the u.s. high-yield, the biggest week for issuance since march. the year to date total more than $120 billion. here with me in new york is greg peters and bonnie wongtrakool from western asset management, plus in st. louis is brian rehling. for the first time in about a year, i heard somebody saying, there is no alternative. it has been 12 months since i heard that kind of language, there is no alternative and that is why i am buying this stuff. does that concern you? to any extent? brian: there is a lot of complacency in the market, no doubt. volatility is very low so there is not a lot of focus on risk. asset prices where they are,

i am jonathan ferro.tinue our global tour. in vietnam, trade ministers around the world discuss a number of sensitive issues at the annual aipac meeting. >> global trade and the threat of protection will dominate the talks this weekend. the posts summit statement was diluted, indicating pressure on ministers not to criticize the protectionist trend. >> it is interesting this watered-down communiquÉ. we seem to see that theme following the g7. >> the diluted statement, apec ministers pledged to work on regulations, but there was no mention on resisting protectionism and like you indicated, we saw this happen at the g7 as well as the g-20 summit where secretary mnuchin refused to sign off on any strong wording resisting protectionism. it is suggesting the u.s. american first agenda is permeating all talks on trade everywhere in the world. >> softbank has formally announced the first round of capital commitments for the tech investment fund worth more than $96 billion. who is in, who is not in, and what is n

a warm welcome to bloomberg "daybreak," i'm jonathan ferrell alongside jonathan ferro. alix steel is on assignment today. euro dollar grinding low for a second straight day. and crews finding a little bit of stability. 6 and 60 on w.t.i. david: fed president speaks at the minnesota high-tech conference and we will hear from dallas fed president. and then the jolts report may give us a sense of what was blind those disappointing numbers in march. and finally, 1:00 p.m. time, the u.s. treasury is set to auction $24 billion in three year notes. jonathan: thank you very much, david. and an uncomfortable market. the s&p 500 finished yesterday's session unchanged on a record close. joining us from hong kong is sean darby. and of course, allen russ kin of fx research. much has been made on the vix and the s&p s. give us your thoughts and your initial takeaway. >> we've got a period where real bond yields have been turning negative in most of the developing markets. that's been accompanied by a fall in the dollar and the background got a resurgencing global trade. so it's a pre

i'm jonathan ferro. catching a big 4922. nowhere.s goes it's a weak story for second day in the g7 space. euro dollar pushing 110. eco data. some later on today, you get the u.s. issues short term t bills. we get the flows for the month of march. later today, u.s. commerce secretary wilber ross are scheduled to meet in washington. topic is trade. cyberattacks.the countries, 200,000 the weekend. other about who he was hit? >> we had people from healthcare telecom and car manufacturers manufacturers. in terms of france we had car to shut downad production at a number of plants this. to mitigate there's a disruption in germany on the trains and telecom companies reported some disruption in their services. >> whenever a hospital gets that's a serious business. how sophisticated was this? take patch out in march and put it on your microsoft, it fine.be >> i think it wasn't too hard these people to mitigate once they were affected. pretty easy to have taken some precautions that meant you were not going to be

[applause] ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. 30 minutes dedicated the fixed incomeloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, valuations remain elevated, volatility sinks. the epicenter of the reflation trade comes unstuck and china's deleveraging campaign rocks commodities. where are the investors who turned bullish? we start with a big issue. is low volatility a sign of investor complacency? >> you see that in equities, in

>> from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg really heal. yield. ♪ up, the u.s.ing payroll reports leaves the data on pace for a yield hike in june. fading the le pen risk. french fonds stabilize ahead of the final round of the french election. we begin with a solid jobs report for the fed in june. >> job creation remains solid. >> the number is a good number. >> the labor market is continuing to heal. >> there is room to maneuver. we are a long way from full employment. wage growth is a long way away from where we should be. >> there is something in there for everybody. that suggests the fed continues on their course. >> it is consistent with the fed hiking but not with economic takeoff. jonathan: joining me today is global management, hickmore, andke priscilla hancock. luke, welcome to new york city. let's begin. the consensus view is june there will be a move. luke: and i guess when the next one is. june is baked in. markets are adjusted for. if we get september, that takes us to three next year. that means we will talk about the number o

i am jonathan ferro. the talk continues. david: prime minister netanyahu waiting for the president. ill depart on his way to rome, we will meet with the pope. jonathan: the markets about 29 minutes -- 0.13% on the s&p 500. a really nice session emerging for european equities as well backed up by 0.32%. business confidence really firm. if you switch up the board 11232, ithe euro at has been a week of significant euro strength. moving so far this year in 2017 and the past week alone. treasury yields up by five basis points p or 2.5 on the u.s. 10 year. alix steel. the s&p is up more than three points in the last six days. it has been quite a struggle as we go higher this morning. nokia getting a pop of over 6%. nokia and apple agreed to a licensing patch. it also cut a favorable ruling and will get payments as well as future royalties. became really aggressive last december. another weaker read on the auto industry. third-quarter estimates missed even the lowest estimates. part of the blame is due to a shortfall on late irs refunds. it is now all about the irs. this is the best-selling

warm welcome i am jonathan ferro. alix steel is away today. fracture between united states and mexico or china. germany? >> it would not have been on my top list. jonathan: we will get you set up for the day. futures a little softer peerage treasuries anchored around the 223 level throughout last week and this week. 220 30 yield on u.s. tenure. that is the story. let's get you up to speed outside the business world. islect the islamic state claim response buddy for a deadly car attack in baghdad. outside a popular ice cream shop. muslims fast during daylight hours. baghdad attoday near least 12 people were killed. president trump is criticizing germany again today. on twitter, the president says the u.s. has a massive trade deficit with germany and the germans take far less than they should for nato. he says it is bad for the u.s. that will change. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. reaction continues. a campaign rally, she came away from the president fe

i'm jonathan ferro. here's the state of affairs. dow. -.2% on the s&p. apple down by 1.35%. here's the situation across asset treasury. yields unchanged. the dollar a little bit firmer. the situation in crude, we bounceback by .25%. here's alix steel. alix: a little bit of softness in equities. the nasdaq taking a breather from its record closes. six of the last nine days. apple weighing on that potentially. movement see a lot of after the adp number. not a huge reaction in the market. earningsa lot of coming out today and that's going to dictate where markets go. taco bell sales coming in eight percent. it be its highest estimate for first-quarter earnings. it also sees three dollars and $.75 in annual earnings from 2019. chocolate sales rose over 5%. apple a little softer. it was deep earlier in premarket. nonetheless still down. iphone sales are down. the second guidance for the corridor also coming in light. about thisn talking all morning. what's the breath of action in the markets? this chart shows the percentage of members th

i'm jonathan ferro. we are counting you down to the opening bell.e dow goes pretty much nowhere, unchanged ahead of the open. , yields unchanged. 2.35 on the u.s. 10 year. dollar-yen grinding higher, that weaker story through the week. joining us now with their reaction to the job report is mohamed el-erian from irvine, california. alongside him, danny blanchflower. muhammad, i want to begin with you. jobs report on the surface looks solid. what is your view? >> it is consistent with a hike in june and three hikes overall because job creation remains solid and because the u6 areoyment rate and down. in terms of the bigger issues, which growth is relatively sluggish and a participation rate to down. consistent with the that hiking but not consistent with economic takeoff. if i told you average hourly earnings was 2.5%, would you be able to tell me the unappointed rate was at 4.4? >> in a sense, that is the big read. what we have learned since 2008 is the unappointed rate does not tell you much of anything. youwould have thought at 4 would see 3% or 4

jonathan ferro to death as well.kdrop for anybody, optimist or pessimist. ronald reagan is down in the lower left corner. up we go to tax reform act of 86. mr. trump in the upper right corner with 100% debt gdp. he doesn't have ronald reagan's america. >> he does not and he doesn't have much leeway either. the issue is when you talk about tax reform, he has to have the tax cuts matched equally by some way to increase the revenue because as you show in your ratio,ith the debt-gdp he does not allow you much options to be able to increase the deficit further and increase the level of debt. >> can i ask you the question mr. bernanke wouldn't answer? where is your 10th point on deficit -- your tent point on deficit to debt and gdp? do you have a number in your head? >> you asked the question yesterday and i saw he didn't come up with an answer. ifould say if you go 3-4%, you are approaching 5%, you are really hitting the danger signal. you would want to see the deficit side by side with what happens to debt-gdp ratio. the

i'm jonathan ferro alongside david westin. in houston, texas, alix steel. what are you up to in texas? alix: how much can shale grow? what will actually restrain shale production? i'm going to get to the bottom of the story here in houston. i will be talking to regina mayor. she has her hands in the energy market. and the guy who put billions of dollars to work in shale. what does he see as a potential growth opportunity. if you are shale, you have opec doing the heavy lifting now. totally. jonathan: you should be very happy with that. crude does not stabilize. these are the stores this totally. jonathan:morning -- scores this. euro-dollar stable. yields higher by a single basis point on the 10 year. david: time for the morning brief. we will get data on the u.s. economy. weekly jobless claims, wholesale inventories and the advanced good trade inventories for april. brainardrnor lael takes part in a discussion on the global economy in washington. thejim bullard speaks on u.s. economy and monetary policy in tokyo. at 1:00 the u.s. treasury will sell $28 bill

i am jonathan ferro. we are seconds away from the u.s. breaking data.our points. such of the board -- treasuries. yields up by one basis point. 2.38 on the 10 year. potentially the best week for the dollar so far in 2017. let's begin with retail sales. , in a little softer on the headline number. the estimate of 0.6%. the previous month revised to positive 0.1 from -0.2. strip out the noisy oil and gas numbers, that comes in at zero point 3%. relative to the estimate, that is softer. 0.4 was the estimate. they retail sales control group for the previous month also revised higher to 0.7%. the actual number four april, 0.2%. -- the actual number for april, 0.2%. onth after month, we come on estimations. sales numberretail a little softer, but the revisions are positive for march. alix: the idea is businesses have pricing power is the question. through,data to go jean medicin and lew alexander. what is your biggest take away from the data dump? lew: retail sales are coming out of q1. weak before. you may mean a little less momentum coming into q2. alix: ho

i'm jonathan ferro. this monday morning, futures stable. marginally positive looking at the doubt and -- the dow and s&p 500. triesllor angela merkel to explain why there is a trading surplus in europe, and saying the euro is too weak. you cannot make sense of the sometimes. crude comfortable at $50.8 0. another $350 billion honest in hardware deals rummaged in the next three years. wilbur ross had high praise for the deals that got done. >> i cannot imagine another business day as good for the united states and the kingdom. kevin cirilli joins us now from jerusalem. let's talk about those deals. energy, andilitary, infrastructure deals done. how important are these for the president at this point? kevin: very important. coming on the heels of the administration raising questions about the potential collusion for russia. i asked secretary ross of whether or not these investigations would cloud over the trip, and he believed they would not. over $300 billion worth of new deals, as well as a $109 billion arms deal negotiated between the u.s.

you are york city, watching "bloomberg daybreak: i am jonathan ferro.from the opening bell, teachers often lows. basis point -- a higher rather. euro/dollar a little weaker. that is the story across assets. here is abigail doolittle. >> happy friday. higher in the free market, cosco 1.5%. are up by more than a very solid quarter. they beat top and bottom line estimates. same-store sales came in at 5%. a bloomberg intelligence analyst says this has everything to do with the company delighting customers with the products, driving traffic and ticket prices. cosco is bucking the bearish trend hitting retail this year. another retailer doing well, big on pace for its best day in a year since they put up and earnings beat. shares at current levels are also set to open above the moving averages, something that moving inuyers are and they continue to have bullish action. not participating in the bullish retail activity, gamestop shares down but beat first-quarter estimates. investors wanted them to raise the view for the year. there is a 21% bearish short inter

i am jonathan ferro. we are alongside david and alix steel.mething like this in your futures are flat. these are getting back to work in europe. $1.09.o stable at alix: we will get auto sales coming out. they will fall for the fourth straight month. the transportation and infrastructure committee will hold hearing on oversight of u.s. airline consumer service after the united ceo testifies is. that should be a lot of fun. apple is reporting earnings as the stock sits at a record high. david: in an interview yesterday, the president gave a sense of how expensive is agenda is, including breaking up the banks. >> we are looking at that. some people want to go back to the old system. we're going to look at that. we are looking at it right now. be verynk is going to seriously change to the banks can go back to loaning money. david: we did the interview with a colleague. she is here to tell us more about what she learned. congratulations. talk to us about this breaking up of the banks. where does this come from? i'm not sure if we took them seriousl

i am jonathan ferro, alongside david westin and alix steel. in risk on field this morning, futures up one third of 1%, the euro stronger. a weaker japanese yen, yields up two basis points. alix: for your morning brief, we got a data dump. jobless claims, unit labor costs, and the trade balance for march. we also have durable goods coming up at 10:00 and at 4:00, donald trump will meet with australian prime minister malcolm turnbull in new york. david: in washington, today is the day for health care. when the house representatives are slated for a vote to repeal and replace obamacare. for all the details we go to kevin cirilli. kevin, they are going to have a vote today. do they have the votes? >> they think they do but who knows? paul ryan has said he is not going to bring a vote unless he has the votes. thatndications suggest after yesterday's introduction of an amendment by representative upton which would be in a billion dollar increase to pre-existing condition clauses over a five-year period , that will be enough to win over moderates. co

i'm jonathan ferro. and a doubt4 positive 3/10 of 1% on the s&p 500.p, but 1.4%down on the week by points. if you switch up the boards, treasury yields lower as low as 218. high over the last month as well. yields up a single basis point. but the dollar weakness story continues across the g10 space. that euro strength story continues up three quarters of 1%. let's get you headlines with emma chandra. emma: and iran, boating is underway in a presidential election. irani is will decide whether to get us on the honey a second term. top electedndle office back to conservatives. most opinion polls have showed -- innovate. wikileaks founder julian has moved a step closer to freedom. sweden is dropping a seven-year long investigation against him. julian has been living inside for the pastassy five years. he feared if he left, he would be arrested and next diet to the u.s. is justice department wondering if they should charge assange. according to a government willial, the trump plans cut discretionary spending, but medicare would not be touched. lawmakers are

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. s dedicated to the fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, valuations remain elevated, volatility sinks. the epicenr the reflation trade comes unstuck and china's deleveraging campaign rocks commodities. where are the investors who turned bullish? we start with a big issue. is low volatility a sign of investor complacency? >> you see that in equities, in credit, in interesras,

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro, with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income, thiseld." ♪ jonathan: coming up, the biggest crisis of the trump residency rights the calm -- breaks the column on wall street. willie chaos in washington throw chair yellen off? thought one impeachment in brazil was dramatic, markets brace for two in a row.

i am jonathan ferro. -- marginal slide yesterday following 20 straight record highs or something throughout 2017. if you switch of the board quickly, go to sterling. one projection showing a hung parliament in the u.k. election and another showing a 15 point lead for the tories. that means cable goes nowhere. --lds higher and treasuries 222 -- 2.22 on the 10 year. here is emma chandra. emma: it is the worst attack in kabul since last summer. a massive car bomb exploded today. as many as 80 people were killed and 350 more winded. no one has claimed responsibility. afghan forces are stuck in a stalemate with the taliban and the attacksstate -- there recently. the pentagon is claiming since -- success. an interceptor was fired in california and destroyed a mock intercontinental ballistic missile. it's the first test in three years. it has taken on more urgency with north korea ramping up a missile testing. president trump's personal lawyer will refuse to cooperate with congressional investigations into russi

i am jonathan ferro alongside david westin and alix steel. futures pretty much dead flat on the s&p. the euro marginally firmer. a retreat from 112 in the last 48 hours. 2.28 your yield on the 10 year. alix: it is a busy day. 10:00 a.m. eastern we get home sales. half an hour later, the dod -- the deal he this number pivotal ahead of tomorrow's opec meeting. p.m., the two-year had a did to cover ratios yesterday, the highest in a year so watch the option. , whent the fomc minutes it decides to leave rates on home. how does the balance sheet pay into that? robert kaplan and neel kashkari will be speaking. david: it turns out china has a lot of debt. we may have known that before, but it is official overnight. they downgraded chinese debt for the first time in 30 years. the senior vice president had this to say about the decision. be a gradualto erosion of credit metrics. we are looking at the policies the government isn't lamenting. the authorities have recognized the risks with high leverage and have a very broad structural reform. we think t

jonathan ferro's on assignment. there's news overnight that president trump reveals classified information to the russians potentially. euro stocksere, lighter, but the move is in the currency market. over that $110. not a ton of reaction unchanged on the day. david: is time now for your morning brief. at 8:30 a.m., it is u.s. economic data as we will get housing permits for the month of april. manufacturing employment and the number of hours worked last month. at 10 :00, jp morgan holds its annual shareholders meeting in wilmington, delaware. at 11:30, the u.s. treasuries will sell for $5 billion in four-week bills. back to our top story about what president trump did or did not say to the russian foreign minister last week and whether put national security at risk. reportedington post" information that trump disclose information with the russian foreign minister last week and subsequently "the times" follow that story. our national security adviser h.r. mcmaster said that he did not disclose sources or methods. >>

. ♪ >> from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg really heal.ing payroll reports leaves the data on pace for a yield hike in june. fading the le pen risk. french fonds stabilize ahead of the final round of the french election. we begin with a solid jobs report for the fed in june. >>

jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. dicated to the fixed income, this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, the biggest crisis of the trump presidency breaks the calm on wall street. investors ask, is the trump trade dead? treasury yields grind down. will the chaos in washington throw chair yellen of course? is it a wake-up call for em? we start with the big issue. a week of messy politics.

. ♪ --athan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes, this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ns remain elevated, volatility sinks. the epicenter of the reflation trade comes unstuck and china's deleveraging campaign rocks commodities. where are the investors who turned bullish? we start with a big issue. is low volatility a sign of investor complacency? >>

i'm jonathan ferro alongside david westin and alix steel. this is what it buys you, not a lot if you bring up the i can ws for you. equities are pretty firm in fact nowhere, $46 going and $.19. we are softer by half of 1%. >> a few deals to tell you about here. $18.50 a share. deal adding to adjustment earnings. havee battle for strength top hundred $84 a share in at&t's bid and verizon's bid before. they have a huge spectrum. it is all about 5g for these players. jonathan: emmanuel macron scored a decisive victory over marine le pen. 60% of the over votes. , guyng us now from paris johnson. fantastic reporting yesterday. the job for emmanuel macron. talk to me about what he needs to achieve over the next month to make sure he gets something out of those parliamentary elections. >> this is just one piece of the puzzle. presidency a major leap forward for him and his political ambition. it is only part of the journey. he needs to carry the momentum into the massive assembly. he needs to be able to deliver the policies he has talked about. i t