announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: wrapping up q1 from new york city for the audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. the focus this morning's crew. -- the focus this morning is on crude. tom: the president has to do some strategic planning. i have to be honest, i am skeptical he can move the price. jonathan: it is monsters strategic planning. they could release as much as 180 million barrels of crude. tom: it will make an effect and we have seen it. we can do the data check. brent crude, $101 per barrel but what will it do one week from now, one month from now given the 24 hour news in ukraine? i will say this until i'm blue in the face this morning. it is not going to be april fools. it is a demand economy. we have a boom economy. covid deaths are nearing 699. that is a triumph and it shows the recovery of the economy and that means oil of. jonathan: payrolls on friday. we have seen this before. not on this scale the. will it make -- not on

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: equities with a bounce. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, live" this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: we are going to have good conversation on this throughout this hour, so please stay with us on that very informed conversation. as you mentioned, there's an equity lift as well. i see at a crusty safe havens and some of the commodities as well. i would respectfully suggest none of it matters. what matters is a full-scale war, and we see how that adapts to the president's speech this morning. jonathan: but we hear from the russian president and the reality on the ground in ukraine. here's a line from the russian president. "there are certain positive developments." vladimir putin earlier this morning. tom: our reporters all across the continent of europe, and the single thing that i think gives pause on a friday morning when we are all

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with john keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. nathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. i'm jonathan ferro, futures down 4/10 of 1% on the s&p. lisa, the bank of russia to allow training in 33 stocks tomorrow. lisa: will it be only domestic traders? there are so many sanctions prohibiting trading from foreigners, prohibiting money from coming in in dollars. how much is their incentive? it is pushing harder and harder. they had eased a bit over the past week. >> how does the fed lower inflation if they are seeing that ongoing easing of natural conditions, seeing stocks continue to rally, and how much is it -- i won't use the t -word. how much is this a belief in base effects coming and allowing inflation to go back down, even to 4%? is that enough for the fed to say we are making some progress? jonathan: i think even that phrase wound you up. lisa: it doesn't take much to want me up. jonathan: a major supply type response this year and on

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures on the s&p slightly positive. the headlines are in the treasury market. tom: what this is about is the rate of change of the rate of change. out of control is maybe a little forced, but this is an important monday for the markets. what it signals is a fed on the move. jonathan: the front end making a marriage of -- making a major move in the spread getting narrow and narrow. for the fed payrolls report, validate that effort. tom: april 1 is the jobs report. an early report this month, and it is going to be really important if it describes a fully employed america and a relatively good economy. jonathan: does any of this data start to speak to consumer confidence, which is rock-bottom? we sighed again on friday. lisa: the line out of some of the bulls is watch what they do, not what they say.

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a morning. good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," i am jonathan ferro. no breakthrough in turkey. tom: the war in ukraine is extraordinary. there is a separation from the ecb and the inflation report and the horrific news flow out of ukraine. and then you go down to negotiations in turkey. this is a morning of sadness and frustration. jonathan: mr. lavrov saying russia wants serious talks with ukraine and belarus. then -- tom: i like what greg wrote. he said mr. pruden will have to fabricate his story. valley a -- vallier says how soon does mr. putin face a devastating depression? jonathan: you got the impression that vladimir putin was the man in charge. lisa: cease-fire talks were not on the table so that serious talks could ensue. they perhaps were not that serious. where are we in terms of a diplomatic solution when there is not an offramp for putin to save face and ukraine -- jonathan: are we going to talk about inflation? we have to shift ou

trading, this is "the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city, the big issue. hope for a diplomatic breakthrough fading fast. >> i don't read anything into it until i see what their actions are. we will see if they follow through on what they are suggesting. jonathan: the pentagon echoing. >> we believe this is a repositioning, not a withdrawal. we should all be prepared to watch for a major offensive against other areas of ukraine. it does not mean the threat to kyiv is over.

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: closing out q1 of 2022. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. -- live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: i get it, it is an american story. we know what a gallon of gas costs. but it is heating up in europe as we enter the later part of this week. what is it, a chess match, a game of chicken between germany, italy, and mr. boudin on the price of oil -- and mr. putin on the price of oil? jonathan: the administration, according to the team here at bloomberg, reporting that maybe we release one million barrels of oil a day for something up to 118 million barrels of oil. tom: i am going to talk to professor will kennedy and javier blas about that. i am skeptical as an amateur about any kind of long-term benefit from that. maybe i am wrong. jonathan:jonathan: -- jonathan: wti down 6% this money -- this morning. li

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: bouncing back from a four day losing streak. good morning. for our audience worldwide, on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we had the action from the president of the united states. we wait for the reaction from russia. tom: the zeitgeist today is a little more eventful than it was yesterday, but what i notice in the last hour, there's a more constructive tape. it is not a turnaround, but there's a relaxation from the tension witnessed by euros swissie and gold. jonathan: if you're in the treasury market, you start to think more about cpi tomorrow morning. the highest we have gone back to 2016. tom: is inflation tomorrow like payrolls last week? nobody really cares. jonathan: can you ignore cpi tomorrow like we ignored payrolls on friday? lisa: it gives you a sense of where we are starting from in terms of how much inflation can go up. how much are we looking at momentum that will only be accelerated by what we are seeing in the commodi

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio with tom keene and kailey leinz. i'm jonathan ferro. futures -- futures positive .5%. tk welcome back. tom: there's a difference in paris to ukraine. you did not feel the war but the tension was there. nevertheless, you saw it across all of paris. as morning, we see it in nato. i hesitate to use the word pageantry as you see mccraw and biden but these are important meetings. jonathan: going from nato to a g7 meeting, what you think is achievable? tom: i'm not sure what is achievable. i think we will see something on lng and for the bloomberg world maybe we will see something on further armament of ukraine, but what is achievable is you have allies together. mr. biden said that from day one of his administration. jonathan: the allies coming together today, kailey leinz, earlier, a statement from the g7 seed by bloomberg rees as follows, to warn putin against using chemical on -- or nuclear weapons. kailey:

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: crude absolutely surging. from new york city, good morning. for our audience worldwide, live on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures off the lows. crude off the highs. wti, $123. tom: right now, oil coming up a little bit. i am using dollar-ruble as the russian litmus paper. one thing i do want to mention as we go into this hour, this is a morning where em begins to break. javier blas began to tweet about that, and i would suggest we've got to look at emerging markets and how they adapt. jonathan: just got a headline on some talks between british prime minister boris johnson and the president of the united states. boris johnson saying when he did -- saying we need to do more on sanctions against russia. the u.s. and adminstration saying they are considering banning russian crude. tom: the united kingdom has really been out front on this. not so much how is goris doing, but what is the tact you perceive from your prime minister? jona

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv radio alongside tom keene and kailey leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. from brussels to poland, the president on the move. tom: air force one on the move. on the greater european front, the future of g20, will russia be involved? far more, the relationship of poland with united states of america, there is a deep history here. this is an important meeting with a capitalistic juggernaut of eastern europe. jonathan: the diplomatic effort in china's role in that. president xi had a call with prime minister johnson. we are getting some national headlines. a headline that said xi should promote peace talks in ukraine and china is willing to play a constructive role. tom: my guess starts with communication first. it will be interesting to see how the united states and china communicate with each other. maybe that is job number 14 secretary of state blinken moving into april. jonathan: that is moving in

alongside tom keene and risa from up it's, i'm jonathan ferro -- lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a hope for a breakthrough between russia and ukraine in the last 20 four hours, had think it much both sides in the last few hours, pouring cold water over that. tom: what we see in moscow, there is a set of headlines, it is real simple, russia walks it back. washington walked it back with a vengeance yesterday afternoon. did you see that equity market yesterday? jonathan: what a run. some big news -- moves for big tech as well. tom: there may be a short cover. i'm not fancy enough to know that stuff, but i will say this. what has caught gimmick characteristics, there is an acceleration to these moves, the bear grew says it is an up rally within a bear market. time will tell. jonathan: david kostin with goldman, i will catch up with him. some of this is a short covering move and we can discuss that. tom: so is he still in a baritone? jonathan: no. he still has a decent year and price target. in the face of what we's -- what we've seen in the yield market, lisa, -- lisa: i feel every t

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ve from new york city, we begin with the big issue. right now, talks between president biden and president xi. >> this is an opportunity for president biden to assess where president xi stands. there has been rhetorical support. the fact that china has not announced what russia is doing in and of itself speaks volumes. jonathan: as u.s. fears grow china may support russia's invasion, secretary blinken delivering a warning. >> china will bear responsibility for any actions it takes

i am jonathan ferro. futures down a third of 1% on the s&p. >> the bond market is bringing forward the expectation for a recession. can equities keep dancing if they think that recession is going to happen in a year and not the next couple months? jonathan: at what point is there an alternative? how high do we need to go in the treasury market? >> how high do we have to go on the front end and how low do have to go on the back end? how much do people revert back to lower yields over the long-term with this bringing forward a recession? in other words, this will all torpedo some of the economic momentum and longer-term we go back to where we were and then some in terms of low rates and low inflations. jonathan: this market this month has done nicely on the s&p since the fed chair's a few days ago. we need to stay on top of russia's invasion of ukraine. you've seen the report by now. russia will respond to what the polish did early today. kailey: we will have to see what response that takes shape in. we lis

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: there is no diplomatic breakthrough. from new york city this morning, good morning. for our audience worldwide, live on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down 0.9%. no breakthrough in turkey. tom: a breakdown in ukraine. i think as we look at ecb, we look at inflation, maybe we even chitchat, jean, the new slow out of ukraine has been absolutely grim. the focus on the black sea, where putin wants a land bridge, but this is about the devastation and reaction to it. i will go to the shock of chelsea and prime minister johnson's actions. jonathan: let's compare and contrast the hope in markets about a better future yesterday with the brutal, tragic reality of what was happening on the ground in ukraine. tom: with tom mackenzie on the border of poland and 2.1 million and counting refugees, it is a movement. i'm not sure yet that it is a movement west. there seems to be real focus on the true adjacencies to russia. jonathan: chancello

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance, with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance come live on tv and radio. i am alongside tom and lisa abramowicz. what a day we've got lined up today. tom: it is a huge day beginning out of china and that fed meeting this afternoon. 9:00 will be something interesting to see as the gentleman from ukraine addresses congress. jonathan: no doubt he will get a standing ovation at the end of it. there will be some asks in that address. i wonder if the white house will deliver them. tom: the asks have to do with allies and this is starkly different from the beginning of world war ii. we are distant, i think that is the reigning theory of the moment but something we will have to monitor. annmarie hordern with us. the fed meeting folds into it as well. jonathan: this is the elephant in the room for the fomc today. lisa: how long this conflict will persist and what the effect will be on commodities. how much of it is going to message around that whipsaw we saw and oil prices -- saw in oi

market is saying that the fed may overdo it. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferroowicz. jonathan: crude absolutely surging. from new york city, good morning. for our audience worldwide, live on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures off the lows. crude off the highs. wti, $123. tom: right now, oil coming up a little bit. i am using dollar-ruble as the russian litmus paper. one thing i do want to mention as wgo

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. from new york city we begin with the big issue. nato members touched down in brussels. >> good morning, we meet at the nato headquarters facing the most serious security crisis in a generation. we will address this crisis together. jonathan: that delivery coming from again stolen bird as president zelenskyy pleads for more help. >> make yourselves visible. say that freedom

jonathan: live from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg real yield.n europe, a flurry of midweek deals pushing debt sales above 23 billion euros. weekly volume topping estimates despite estimates going quiet after the ecb decision. in the u.s., bond sales surpassing. the junk bond market remaining quiet. one deal this week setting up for the slowest first quarter since 2009. when he, zach griffiths, lofti karoui are still with us. how much damage has been done in credit? investment grade through high yield, take us through it. winnie: from a returns perspective, an off a lot of damage has been done. ig is having the worst performance start on record. high yield is on the second worst performance on record. from a spirit perspective, the move has been big but not quite as large as those return losses would indicate. it all comes down to the starting point of broader yields. everything was so low and so tight, but the sensitivity of portfolios to a rising yield is driving outside total return losses. jonathan: are there particular dislocations in invest

trading, this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. live from new york city, we begin with the big issue, a messy bond market. >> the curve is inverting. >> it is inverted. >> whether or not we will have inversion in the u.s.. the potential for recession is growing more. >> curve in version is coming. >> the timing is crucial. >> the fed is late and now we are going to make a policy error trying to fix the problem they should've fixed last year. >> what central banks is doing n

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and kailey leinz. tom: what i find interesting is the idea will russia exited the g20? that is a signal of the moment. there are other side stories. we will go to maria, to anne-marie, to aggi. the data is beginning to come in. you mentioned the german data. that means something to brussels. jonathan: german business confidence collapsed. that is their word, completely rolled over in a massive way. tom: what is going on into the weekend. what the pros are watching the middle distillates of oil and that will be the conditions like german confidence where we get a measurement of where we are now. we don't know where we are. jonathan: 216 on the u.s. two-year. kailey: what is the yield curve signaling, especially to a federal reserve that throughout the course of speakers that we've heard through this week, and will get more today, are pushing the hawkish narrative of 50 basis points in may and perhaps again

it has got to be higher than where we are. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferrobramowicz. jonathan: equities with a bounce. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, live" this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: we are going to have good conversation on this

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." futures down 0.8%. tom: the digital revolution, the social media makes it so immediate. we saw that last night. the good news, what i see this morning is a real weekend balance sheet adjustment even with the? it's closed and you see it with euro. jonathan: if you are just waking up this morning, let's go through this piece by piece. overnight, a nuclear plant came under attack by russian forces. a fire broke out at a training complex. we understand the fire has been contained. some of the headlines we understand this morning, no change in radiation. that is really important. we learned it has not affected essential equipment. we do know that russian forces are now in control of that site. any additional headlines, we will keep bringing them through the morning. tom: this is north out of crimea which has been the real thrust of the russians. the real headline is that this is a nuclear power country. there is a lot more of the rea

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. live with lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. a conversation between the president of the united states and european leaders. lisa: they are going to try to understand what comes next is this conflict rages on, as the war in ukraine continues to take a serious toll. what is the exit strategy here? is there an offramp, or has that become more elusive the longer this has gone on? jonathan: getting whipsawed by some of the conversations come of the talks of the kremlin this morning, saying progress is "less than we would like." lisa: do markets even care at this point? people are looking at mariupol, the city in ukraine, and whether there's any willingness to give it up by that deadline today, the demand that russia has placed on them. unlikely that they will. it is catastrophic and so depressing to see this and not see that offramp. jonathan: th

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. futures up .6%. crude, $109.34. tom: you see it with the commodity complex, as well. this moving of hydrocarbons, commodities a removable when you have sanctions and soft sanction restrictions on russia. jonathan: nobody right now wants to touch russian crude. it is a disruption in supply that maybe we were not expecting from these sanctions. tom: not that we need to do a data check, these are conditions from everywhere 24 hours, 12 hours ago, whether it isoil you are looking at, or ruble. jonathan: lisa, fed chair jay powell set the stage. what a difficult one for him in d.c. lisa: what is he do with this? he is looking at stickier input costs that are rising at the fastest pace in decades and it is unclear that they could potentially rollover. it is not just the oil prices. it is everything in the commodity sector getting disrupted as people try to understand

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with john keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowitz. jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro, futures in this s&p. we are going to start with this bond market move. lisa: yesterday, huge move. was this a hawkish fed meeting? to me, that with the rhetoric come and get the market took it as something slightly different. jonathan: threes are basically there already. lisa: basically, people are saying the fed cannot accomplish the stock landing that they seem confident they are going to accomplish. they are saying you are going to spur some sort of slow down. it is basically one sign of that coming to the floor. i'm not seeing it in equities, but the bond market is sending a clear message. jonathan: report of major progress in ukraine, kailey, that is wrong. reports of major talks, "wrong." kailey: that with the story published yesterday, to kind of outline what a peace agreement might look like. ukraine wants security guarantees. there a lot of remaining questions which may be is why the kremlin is saying that major progress has not yet happened becau

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro.s is bloomberg real yield. time for the week ahead. eurozone gdp early in the week on tuesday. data on wednesday. and then a big thursday with an ecb rate decision followed by christine lagarde's news conference. and then second before she speaks, u.s. cpi. back with us are frances donald, george goncalves, robert tipp. s&p to remove all listed and/or domiciled in russia. that will take place prior to march 9. the dow jones to reclassify russia from standalone to em. this is the nuclear plant that came under fire yesterday. u.s. saying they should allow shift changes at ukraine's nuclear plant. some of the headlines in the last couple of moments. let's get to our guests. frances, set the stage. thursday morning, cpi drops, lagarde comes out. i wonder what will happen that morning. what are you looking for? frances: let's go back to the theme of what we need to know about the future. u.s. cpi, we know it will be about 7%. with energy prices rising, we are going into march, all economist

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up 0.6% on the s&p. on the commodity market, monster moves again. tom: i don't buy the stock market bounce. in the commodity markets, there it is, nickel. i would note gold. i think it has been underreported. gold is the ultimate war commodity. hit $2027 about 2:00 a.m. this morning. jonathan: shell pulling back from russian crude, and china mulling stakes in russian energy and commodity firms. where the west goes, does china step in? tom: there's a vacuum there, and someone is going to step in. i think everyone understands that. clearly the leader is china with a relationship with moscow that goes back for decades. no surprise there. but the west is going to do what the west is going to do. maybe will will here for -- hear from president biden on that. jonathan: if they ban the import of russian energy, does the chinese government step i

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, worldwide, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. what a morning. tom: a really full morning, and it is all serious. all that is going on in china, with the prime minister of japan in an extensive press conference now. very interesting. but that is secondary to what we see this afternoon with the fed meeting and far more what we will observe and witness this morning at 9:00. jonathan: the ukrainian president addressing congress. ukrainian proposes becoming a neutral country but having its own armed sources, and it could be viewed as a certain kind of compromised tom: austria, sweden, another non-nato eu nations, which is read the kremlin leans to, and ukraine, after 15 minutes, says, eh, maybe not. jonathan: our way, not sweden, not austria, our way. lisa: security guarantees have to be the focus of talks. what is the new model? you cannot flip the switch and go back

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. m: in the last hour and a half, a move from the $109 level , the high for the morning $113. jonathan: the russia talks may happen today. the objectives of those talks, something we have to revisit every single time we see those headlines. tom: we have to see, within the courage of what we are seeing from ukraine. i think we are flying blind here, blinder then we were three days ago. jonathan: payrolls on friday, adp later today, cpi print on march 10 could have an 8% handle. what on earth are they going to do this year? lisa: has they lost control over the inflationary pressures in the economy? if they have, what is the ramification for an economy that has been hinged on every fed chair powell word for the past couple of years? how do we dovetail into a new regime? jonathan: your nasdaq up by 0.7%. yields down hard in the u.s., harder in germany, much harder in the u.k. we reverse some of that move today. wti very close to $110, up by 6%. euro-dollar, a break of 1.11 to the downside. l

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. for the president, the week begins right now. tom: it is on diplomacy. while the diplomacy is going on, including the headline we got come up to 100,000 fleeing war, it is an exceptional blast on the black sea right now. the exception will video, the ukraine navy says the ship blown up. the headline to me is the war continues. jonathan: three issues at play here. one is combat, the risk of chemical warfare i russia. two is china, their role in all of this. three, the energy dependency of europe on russia and what the u.s. can help them do. over the next couple of days, can the agree on something big? tom: those are three disparate parts. the chemical warfare issue is germane because right now, correct me if i am wrong, and the last 48 hours, there's been constructive ukraine war news. you wonder what that means for mr. putin. jo

absolutely have to get off the zero bound. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferroamowicz. jonathan: bouncing back from a four day losing streak. good morning. for our audience worldwide, on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we had the action from the president of the united states. we wait for the reaction from russia. tom: the zeitgeist today is a little more eventful than it was yesterday,

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up 1% on the s&p. big week coming up. tom: the fed meeting on wednesday, we will have full coverage. it all wraps around the next step in this war. what is fascinating is on the warfront, maria tadeo will give us perspective there, what is next? far more is the embedding of sanctions. that is the great unknown this week. jonathan: on all of those fronts, china's role in all of it, as jake sullivan sits down with the top security diplomat today. tom: damian sassower said flat out, russia is going to default this wednesday. when you do that, you've got to go do your best friend in beijing. jonathan: his best friend has his own problems. 17.5 million residents in shenzhen locked down. lisa: and a lot of factories very relative and -- very relevant to the rest of the world. the fact that they

i'm jonathan ferro. futures on the s&p just a little bit softer after a four-day winning streak on the s&p 500. russia's promises met with international skepticism. tom: headlines right now. i will let you get to that. what i see here is round-trip after the buoyancy yesterday. ruble does round-trip, so does everything else out there. all of that preparing us for immediate april. we need to remember on this wednesday it is a nonfarm payrolls week. we have to get used to it. jonathan: we can go through some of the data. some of the expectations ahead of friday. this u.s. government it is mistrust and verify. they do not trust the promises of the russian government. they are looking to verify some of the pledges made in the last 24 hours. ultimately they are a promise to sharply withdraw from ukraine's capital. tom: it is 6:00. he would is from bloomberg. kremlin, no breakthrough in ukraine talks. what else do you need? we are getting the micro measurements. the bank of russia moves money around today. the

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a fascinating bond market. if you are not interested in bond markets, bear with me. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. do you like the promo for the next hour? stay with me. istk -- tk is away. we are up six basis points on the day. lisa: the big question of the morning, our bond markets and stock markets speaking past each other or peeking from the same book? jonathan: your three year, your five year, your seven year trading above where you 10 year yield is right now. that curve is inverting. lisa: basically, inflation running hot in the near term. the fed responding with faster rate hikes. over the longer-term, how much does this lead to lower inflation ahead and a lower fed funds rate, which is basically being priced into the bond market as people see the value of locking in yields a little bit north of 2% for 10 years? jonathan: how far is this fed willing to push it? you will hear from so many fed

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. : live from new york city, we begin with the big issue. new sanctions on russia. >> we are continuing to look at options to expand and deepen our sanctions and anticipate we will have more for you on that in the coming days. jonathan: wrapping up the pressure abroad and looking to alleviate the pressure at home. bloomberg reported the white house is considering a massive release of crude from its reserves. fruit traded chart -- crude trading sharply lower on the news. at one full and 30 eastern time -- at 1:30 easternim

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ve from new york city we begin with the big issue. president zelensky tweeting our demands are the end of the war at the withdraw of the russian troops. there is a dialogue. renewed hope for a diplomatic breakthrough contrasts with actions on the ground. russia striking a military base 15 kilometers from poland's border and several reports suggesting russia asks china for help. bloomberg reporting russia

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up 1% on the s&p. big week coming up. tom: the fed meeting on wednesday, we will have full coverage. it all wraps around the next step in this war. what is fascinating is on the warfront, maria tadeo will give us

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. live from new york city, we begin with the big issue. we have left off. >> we finally got the first fed rate of the cycle. >> all of the forecasts were not particularly encouraging. >> unrealistically hawkish. >> the numbers do not add up. >> i cannot at the numbers up and make any sense of them. >> i do not think they believe it. >> it is true we need to get rid of inflation. >>

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. live from new york city we begin with the big issue. strong words and unintended consequences. president biden with a message for russia's leader. pres. biden: putin is now isolated more than he has ever been and i'm taking action to make sure the fate of our sanctions is targeted at the russian economy. we are enforcing powerful economic sanctions, cutting off russia's largest banks from the international finance system. jonathan: a growing list of sanctions intended to leave russian energy untouched.

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. od morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up 0.6% on the s&p. on the commodity market, monster moves again. tom: i don't buy the stock market bounce. in the commodity markets, there it is, nickel. i

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. from new york city, we begin with the big issue. russia stepping up its assault across ukraine. president biden commending ukrainian efforts, delivering another warning for vladimir putin. pres. biden: united states and people around the world will continue to support the ukrainian people. ukraine will never be a victory for putin. jonathan: the president speaking from the white house in just over one hour, prepared to announce the end of russia's preferred trade status and declaring the wafers de

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. live from new york, we begin with the big issue. a commodity shock. >> this extra move up triggered by a potential disruption to oil supplies around the ukraine crisis. >> this is an enormous amount of oil. >> this is not just about oil. look where we'd prices are, it is about metals, it is copper, it is aluminum. >> a number of ports and the black sea are not taking boats at the moment. >> the inability to

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. live from new york city we begin with the big issue. putting the pressure on vladimir putin. president biden taking action against russian energy. pres. biden: i am announcing the united states is banning all imports of russian gas and energy. that means russian oil will no longer be acceptable at u.s. words the american people will deal another powerful blow to putin's war machine. jonathan: the corporate exodus continues. starbucks, pepsi, mcdonald's joining a blowing -- are growing list of companies leaving russia.

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. an: live from new york city, we begin with the big issue. a humanitarian crisis. russia and ukraine saying they will make an effort to establish corridors of civilians fleeing the fighting. u.s. ready to step up sanctions once again. >> there is a significant opportunity, but imperative in this moment to violate -- to finally move off of the defendants on russian energy

this is bloomberg, the open with jonathan ferro. : live from new york city, we begin with the market pricing in a slower fed. >> it's possible the cycle is faster and hotter. >> the market can handle it. >> chair howell told us that's exactly the thing that should be on the table. >> they have joked about raising rates 15 basis points. >> it puts a lot of pressure on markets. >> you look at the two-year and five-year, they have priced in a bit of this.

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, morning, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. futures are up /10 of 1%. tom: the vix is at 32 and we are watching for 40. it's churning in its range bound. jonathan: yields are higher from the one 40's last week to the 100 80's this week. tom: here is a yield which folds it altogether. scott says why are you quoting russian yields at 12%? there is a lot of agony there from high yield to investment grade over to em and the trouble they are having in moscow. jonathan: in russia there is a low bar. the fact that ukraine talks are continuing is positive. lisa: i think a lot of people are hoping for more especially day after day of russian assertion or something happening at the different message from k yiv. tom says we haven't seen catharsis but how unusual is it that bonds and stocks are falling hard? it's the worst performance going back to 2008. jonathan: and what's crude doing down there? lisa: it's hard to unders

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. live from new york city, we begin with the big issue. the war in ukraine intensifies. the devastation in the country pushing secretary blinken to prepare for the next step up in sanctions. sec. blinken: we are talking to our european partners and allies to talk about the prospect of banning the import of russian oil, while making sure there are still in appropriate supply of russian oil on the world market. jonathan: germany says no, leaving the white house under mounting pressure. bloomberg

i'm jonathan ferro, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowitz.t that they are down it is the way they are down as the flow of information out of russia and ukraine. i will suggest there is

"the count down to the open" starts now. >> this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathanm new we are back in two bear market. >> completely cautious. >> news regime. >> new markets. >> this is exacerbating all the issues that were already there. >> the fed, the war, commodity prices. it is a pretty tall list. >> geopolitical risk coming to the forefront. >> it is a modicum of uncertainty. >> leaves room for discussion. >> it is a tricky environment. >> tough time obviously. >> we are at one of the longest corrections for the nasdaq since th