this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: live from new york.

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: coming up, equities u

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: i almost stayed in bed this morning. tom: is a snooze fest but we need to make it productive. there is a lot going on beneath the surface. our job -- stay with us on this exciting friday. jonathan: usually save that peptalk for the moment before we, the air. i am jonathan ferro. if you want to move this morning , look to the commodity market. crude is up 8.5%. the russians are preparing to cut output and as we understand it, according to delegates of opec-plus they will not boost supply in reaction to that russian cut. a decent rally in crude. tom: it has been a story all week. brent crude up to $86.23. it will not give way. we are on our way to $90. jonathan: you have to reframe the inflation report next week. lisa: this is one of the big questions, especially if that will torpedo equity momentum. on this move in oil, what strikes me is how much the barrels have not been taken off the market from russia. all they are doing is losing some of the profits but not necessarily se

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. slide as european acceleration. goldman investor day kicking off new york and target delivering a cautious f

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. three exhausting, fascinating days. hour. i'm going to go right to it. for me what matters is wage inflation reporting. jonathan: it is certainly been exhausting. it has been painful. tom: even cautious on this market. totally agree. jonathan: to set this out, impossible. that is where the formal kicks in. payrolls, 29 minutes away. we are looking for a hundred and 99,000. it will come down to this, the income and information. lisa: at what point do people interpret the data as they wish? we have seen this again and again. we saw that from the meeting we heard from the federal reserve. some people took that as the dovish pivot everyone was looking for. jonathan: if you sprinkle in some hawkish language but give me something new, a splash of something different, that's what i'm going to pay attention to. that's what everyone is paying attention to. you cannot sit there in a news conference and said -- and say we think that this inflationary process has started and expect me to pay attention to, we've got more work to do.

this is bloomberg "the open" with jonathan ferro. re on the fed to keep hiking as the white house euros in

>> this is bloomberg surveillance with john mccain, jonathan ferro -- tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisaour audience worldwide on tv and radio. this is bloomberg surveillance. equity futures unchanged on the s&p. we close. -- week lows. tom: i am going to suggest a lot going on. a yield curve lift. a signal of a change i would suggest very few people modeled in. this is unexpected. jon: the whole yield curve shifted higher by 10 basis points across the hold of the curve. the question we have been asking over the last couple of weeks is whether february confirms that. a sneak peek a little bit earlier yesterday. s&p global. it can confirm what we saw in january trade lisa: -- saw in january. lisa: climbed above the contractionary level of 50 for the first time going back nine months. we are in expansionary territory for services and a report that came out this morning was interesting. people taking money out of some of their basic goods items and putting it into flying around and staying in hotels trade -- staying in hotels. tom: work from home has changed all these service sector things

tom: joining us now is the futbol expert jonathan ferro. his an official introduction? tom: button your jacket and make it look like the bbc. jonathan: i will do my best. tom: i am so dumb and the guy for the tots did a great job defending. what is this stuff mean for mr.greylish? jonathan: does it mean they fail to qualify for the champions league and doesn't mean the highflying football stars will have to leave? it was a match in italy in 2006 where the event got relegated from the top tier of italian football and they lost big superstars. one of the greatest goalkeepers of all time, the greatest in the world that time, some of the best players in football when into the lower league. i think what's interesting about this is it is a different league . events got penalized again. there has always been a theme in the premier league that has protected some of these big clubs and allowed them to do what they are doing. governance of football in the united kingdom is interesting and i wonder if the pushback from man city is this the feeling of t

matters and it matters a lot for the global economy. >> this is a bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferroom keene. jonathan: the federal reserve decision coming up this afternoon. good morning for our audience worldwide. this is bloomberg surveillance. futures are a negative third of 1%. are we looking for 25 in this federal reserve? tom: the real version we saw yesterday is -71 beeps. it is a great set of guests to set up the optionality now, what will chairman powell say about his choices? his degrees of freedom out to entering meetings out. jonathan: the financial conditions we have seen over last month. lisa: he could talk about indicators he is watching. there was a story about super court inflation. this is a new frederick -- super core inflation. there are ways they can tweak it. will the markets listen to him? jonathan: he says tom, it is continuing to look like a soft landing. he says to eci which data is coming down. he said none of the indicators come the recession committee normally suggests we are in a recession at the moment. tom: the basic idea of what is the history of dis

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: you are still in your prime, tom. tom: we hide the walker when we go live. lisa: we are all in our prime. jonathan: that is how we should begin programming every day. this is "bloomberg surveillance." futures down .75%. the new high for the year at the front end of the yield curve. 4.70 and we are talking about 50 basis point hikes again. tom: i am looking at the screen and that six month t-bill. we come into the end of this week and we are thinking about staggering. it is just about short rates gaming the fed. jonathan: hard data has been tremendous. pushing back the recession calls and introducing a higher peak rate at the federal reserve. jan hatzius at goldman, did you see that? and then they throw in an extra hike in june. lisa: a lot of people are following along with that, including fed officials. they say perhaps we should have raised 50 basis points the last time. jim bullard and others say we have to think about another 50 basis point rate hike. putting this togethe

>> everything you need to know to get started for trading, this is bloomberg "the open" with jonathan ferro

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. llen says the global outlook is improving, no one at the federal reserve once to stop hiking.

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the hangover after the monza report, good morning, for our advances worldwide alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i jonathan ferro. equity futures down .9%, to your yield, starting friday morning, four point 09%. it went through 440 earlier. tom: it is not a boring monday. you got massive inversion, the two tens spread. up to -80 basis points moments ago. the whitest statement on spread, three months to 30 year is buttressed right down to 30 year inversion. jonathan: we went from soft landing to hard landing, no landing. it is beginning to look more like a no landing scenario. under that scenario, the economy does not slow down, upside risk to inflation returns and maybe they volatile price action of 2022 comes with it. lisa: if you do get a resilient economy like we seem to be getting, what is to stop the fed from going further? that is what you are seeing on the front end and perhaps that is driving volatility in stocks. jonathan: chairman powell talked about the disin

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is retail sales tuesday. -- wednesday. this is "bloomberg surveillance" alongside tom keene and lizza -- and lisa abramowicz. forget higher for longer, we still need to get higher. a lot of people are jumping on board. tom: we will go into it. i am giving a shout out to liz young who has some great charts on the feed. i am sorry, it is a shelter some up, and are we spending on retail sales, or can we not afford it because of rent, mortgages and homes? to me it is really interesting, the linkage of tuesday and wednesday. jonathan: we will find out at 8:30 eastern time. our we significantly restrictive, deutsche bank does not think so. they moved that forecast from 5.1 to 5.6%. lisa: deutsche bank has been on the higher end of the terminal rate, and now perhaps they are still on the higher end but less so than they used to be. we take a look at what the market is pricing in. futures are looking at a 5.3% peak in july. it only comes down to about 5.1 by the end of the year. n

i am jonathan ferro, lisa will be back on monday. tom: so she says. beach somewhere and where not. jonathon: i thought she go skiing in the winter? tom: she has a check. -- jet. jonathon: we are down .6%. we will get some fest because well from three well-known hawks on the fomc. tom: master move the market last time. jonathon: they may feel compelled to move it by 50 basis point. tom: she is prodigious and mathematics. the epsilon is the noise out there and she's an expert on that. there's been a lot of noise out there this week. jonathon: how much is the fed using the information from january and if you get a drip feed of data in february. tom: aaron rodgers, the new york jets. jonathon: if you look at what mohammed is saying a new dovetail what we heard from ed hyman, no wonder he had this cacophony of opinion. jonathon: look at the move in the bond market. five weeks in a two year yield climate breaching 470 getting closer to 4% on a 10 year maturity. i forget who said it but essentially, the fed is telling you you can get 5% wanted t-bill why wou

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.. it's a marathon of huge information flow. jon ferro on the ecb with his decades of experience and the three hour launch afterwards. [laughter] jonathan: covering frankfurt, germany. 50 basis points set to go again. this will keep going have a bit of pushback in a couple of stories may be some fed officials unhappy with the trajectory of things but ultimately cpi still too high. the ecb has more work to do what's interesting about today and this is a footnote baby. -- maybe we had this downside surprise so maybe we will get something. tom: stay with this global wall street this will be fun but we are going full-circle here back to another time. the governor of the bank of england is saying we can't declare victory. we are going back to a time when many cost something. there was inflation, discipline is back. jonathan: mark zuckerberg going out there saying this is the year of efficiency. it's the year of 4% interest rates and, lisa, maybe five. lisa: he will see this kind of rationali

he spoke to bloomberg's, jonathan ferro. >> it implies, i live in a world where you can bring down inflationy live to bring down inflation. you need to act early enough and have cognitive diversity, broad mindset. of course if he end up following the wrong approach, then have to do much more than what you would have to -- had to do otherwise, then you get a hard landing. jonathan: is that window still open? mohamed: i do not think they can get cpi to 2% without crushing the economy. 2% is not the right target for the economy. when you have so much stuff going on on the supply-side and energy transition, and change into the supply chain, geopolitical issues that go into the supply-side, the way the market functions, a long list of supply issues, you need a higher staple inflation rate, call it three to 4% to allow for the lubrication that is necessary for the changes on the supply-side. you heard me say this when i was with you last time. you cannot change an inflation target when you missed it in a big way. jonathan: maybe you can tolerate an above target inflation rates and just tolerate it