tom: jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz on assignment this morning. i am on assignment with katie greifeld sitting in for lisette. we will try to survive the next three hours with. quarter is where you are. sidebar, apple and tim cook. apple approaches $3 trillion. dan ives has his eyes on $4 trillion. katie: you are getting headlines about apple stepping up with for antitrust charges. the state is up to antitrust charges of streaming music such as modified. we are approaching big benches but we know apple is fighting this. tom: the real answer is in the securities market. we are up again in the data security market. yes, we will decrypt crypto with katie greifeld. bob just emailed. bob from the hampton says, "do crypto." you will later. right now, we have to do the story of the equities market. what do we know about the semiconductor market yesterday that lisa was so focused on? katie: it is a hot topic on a geo scale. seems like the u.s. is trying to protect nvidia's market share. we will see what happens on that front but in the meantime, i has a m

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jonathan ferro is on assignment. end of this week? maybe back on friday, i don't know. lisa a: no, through the end of the week. tom: the vix is at 13.74. i get this. there are all these oddities going on. i don't get it. i talked to dean kearney yesterday and even when he spoke, i was confused. lisa a: people talking about the earnings market and people not wanting to add to the exposure or take back but they are playing in the earnings market. they are really at stasis this morning. tom: there is lots of kurtosis. [laughter] we are looking at curve inversion. the twos-tens spread all up. 97 basis points, ever so much wider. a revisit to 100 basis points would be a big deal. i learned a lot about fedex. lisa a: the big takeaway is they are able to raise prices on consumers but there volumes are dropping. you are seeing this across the board from all shipping companies. they are across the board with a below estimates and expected. yesterday, they were at one point down 7% after their reported earnings. they benefit f

island to island, on assignment, jonathan ferro. ♪ ♪ >> it is clear that in the e.u., we should have continued to build on our strengths of being a trading superpower. but at the same time, there are certain economic security concerns which we need to address in a more conventional environment. tom: one of the most interesting voices in continental europe, he is a former prime minister and executive vp for trade for the european commission. he has been helpful with bloomberg surveillance over the years. we love that our global audience, in particularly, our audience in europe, who thinks nothing of flying down to iskia. thank you to oppenheimer and company for correcting my fractured italian. he's on assignment. he does it better than we do. michael: because he follows italian football. tom: thank you so much, frank. thank you for emailing me this as well. nobody sends me emails about powell policy, it is about for jonathan ferro is. we are waiting for an interview with maria tadeo. we will bring that to you as we can. michael mckee

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene, bloomberg surveillance from new york on a friday. t. we'll give you details on that in the 8:00 are we need a brief you know an 8:00 hour is like i think tom: things on friday are different. when central banks change, we change. the one thing that has not changed is this recession friday. there is no question about it. the intensity is here. there is a lot going on. futures are -23. switzerland, norway, and huge announcement on the u.k., truly an uproar about that. as you stated yesterday, all of a sudden 6%. lisa a: there is still determination from central bankers to get things lower. tom: oil has given us tension. $68 30 cents. we will talk about the curve evasion later. just in the last 48 hours, off the central bank, readjust if you will. there is serious dislocation within the market into the weekend. lisa a: where have you been so far this year? we have been hard landing and soft landing. then all of a sudden, it was no landing again. are you heading back to hard landing? this is the week where we shifted narratives. you might

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: day two of waiting for a bull market, welcome back, this is bloomberg surveillance from new york city. john is supposedly working in california on a beach, tom is on vacation. you have me again and also julian emanuel, chief equities derivatives and -- at evercore isi for the hour. it is a time when we are seeing a 20% potential gain, since lows in october, since lows in october cut is the rally real ? julian: i think so. our base case is sometimes -- sometime in the next few months, you will have a recession, so you will have a pullback. but this is a cyclical rally where we think the hallmark of the last week or so is a broadening of participation. lisa: you don't want to call it a bull market or a pause, a skip, why does it matter? >> if you go back to the tech bubble burst bear market, you had several rallies of 40 and 50% and the nasdaq of we made the final bottom. rather than labeling, you have to think about how you want to think about the long-term as an individual inves

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro is on assignment.historic monday after the shock of weekend. to bring you up-to-date would take 30 minutes. we've got 30 seconds. the uncertainty about russia seems to center around where are the people, are speculations over the weekend still in play? we don't know. lisa: how do you play the crosswinds that leave us in a stagnant uncertainty. you look at the now, which is the most optimistic since 1960. do look at the potential how this transpires? if you are just joining us, we are hearing that for goshen may or may not have immunity and dollars after attempting to march on moscow. with this means we don't know. tom: we are going to keep briefed here. also what bloomberg news is reporting. the basic idea here of mutiny, not a coup. that is the wrong word to use. maybe it's what we use in the fervor of saturday. on what is a mutiny or an insurrection act, is this gentleman still under investigation it? that is the one colonel we can grab onto. lisa: this is what we don't know. we don't know what his m

katie greifeld in for lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro -- i think bramo gets back on the 15th. ferro, he wants to get back for the opening of premier league which is august 20, but we will have to see. you've got the real yield this afternoon, let's discuss this. amy, if you could give me the bill dudley quote from yesterday, how do you make up a guesstimate on the 10 year yield? you make it up in terms of pieces. the phd from berkeley nails this in his critical esther -- his critical essay. suppose the federal reserve short-term interest rate target adjusted for inflation averages about 1% over the next decade -- 10 years. inflation averages 2.5%. the bond risk premium, the noise out there of risk, is one percentage point. some that up and you get one plus 2.5 plus one and 4.5%, that is not outlandish is what dr. dudley was saying. katie: he is far outside of the consensus on this, an outlier call. -- is looking for the 10 year rate versus the 10 year rate forecast from the fed survey of professional forecasters and consensus says tens going to fall to 3.5%, a full percentage p

john -- jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. it's been a monday and portugal and we watch it every central banker on the planet. many central bankers doing fed presidents and governors speaking. can we get them all there to talk? lisa: jay powell and also of course is counterpoint -- counterpart lagarde. tom: i'm looking at the fallout of a central bank panel in portugal on the markets. it is fascinating. an absolutely brilliant note this morning, harkening back to 2004-2005. you will love this. the vortex of instability. will they create a vortex of instability as howard edwards talked about years ago? this was a famous moment before the crisis and there is that tension out there as central bankers speak to that. lisa: are they going to go too far? that's the key concern. the u.s. possibly has a different situation, much more concerned about downed, more upside surprises in the data so maybe we get a different tone from jay powell. it is in europe, are they going to hike into a downturn that we are going to see increasingly on

john keane on assignment -- jonathan ferro on assignment.eral molex here in studio. lisa: we have had eight straight weekly gains on the nasdaq. that is the greatest rally, the longest going back to 2019. we have erased all the losses from 500 interest rate hikes that have been incurred on the equity markets. we have now erased that as we continue to chart forward. to me, those are some of the interesting aspects going forward as we take a bit of a breather. tom: 4440 on spx. i'm still not used two 400. i believe there was 5000 at some point. i'm kidding. dow is 35,400. as we sort of slide into q3 and how money people have been wrong, and we have to readjust, i really wonder the framework of a second leg of fear of missing out. lisa: i was trying to think this morning, is it foam a -- fo limo versus rates? taking a look at some specific names, it is frankly more interesting at a time like this. nike shares lower than 2%. this is after a raised concern about inventory problems. this comes after nike has crushed it. they direct to consumer tre

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: can you sing of canada? can you sing that? tom: it's a good question though. oh canada. jonathan: blame canada for the smoke live from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. blame canada. i think we need to talk about the bond market first. blame canada for the surprise rate hike following a rate hike from the australian bank. tom: central banks like surprise. an expert on this the bottom line is surprise is always more efficacious for a central bank. the answer is they surprised yesterday and you wonder do we skip, pause, or light a bonfire june 14. jonathan: they communicated a conditional pause in january and delivered this line yesterday. it was not suit -- restrictive. people ask themselves is that's statement in chairman powell's future? lisa: if they committed to a skip what is that mean in this has been the past few weeks of pricing out rate cuts and i think t

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is payrolls friday, live from new york city this morning. good morning, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. your equity market is positive by 0.5%. your expectation for payrolls is 195,000. it's been your story of the week, china. china is working on a new basket of measures to support the property market. that's where the push will be potentially. tom: bloomberg is reporting is from across our offices in china. they already have a plan on property that's were you go if you're worried about investment in china but it doesn't say much about job formation. it moves the renminbi right away with it being stronger at 7.06. i'm going to get eric sunday evening and there monday morning, that's when news breaks. jonathan: the chinese equity market had a better time of it. china is sputtering and europe is struggling but the expectations coming into the year were better and u.s. resilience with data so far this week with claims exceptionally low in employment and vacancie

this is bloomberg, the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: live from new york, the debt limit deal rate hikes even as the jobs data co

i am jonathan ferro. out there that we can talk about, including goldman sachs now looking for 4500 on the s&p. in looking for some performance to shift away from mega cap attack. you're starting to see maybe this equity market broadening out. tom: the mathematics are broadening, the mid-cap and small-cap dynamic. it is interesting to see how bonds, commodities, currencies correlate into a legitimate bull market. it makes for good financial tv, the tension between goldman sachs and morgan stanley. jonathon: morgan stanley not moving. sticking with the bearish view on earnings. if you get into the note from goldman sachs, this is not an upgrade on earnings. this is a view that the multiple will be higher than thought. this is just saying we are going to upgrade our earnings forecast. that is not what we heard from david coston. lisa: it's a great point because we heard this from other bulls as well. even though use all revenue growth for most of the s&p 500 that have reported so far, profits are read .3% l

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. morning trevor audience worldwide. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. painting the sky orange in new york the last 24 hours. positive on the s&p 500. going into the federal reserve one week from today. momentum is taking on a life of its own. >> the momentum is there. what matters is the app i use, particularly when i am in china. the idea that washington has a bigger cloud than new york is tangible. this afternoon, we get more of this? lisa a: that's a sure addition of the weather channel. yes, that is my understanding. tom: there is fog right now, worse than new delhi and shanghai. it is the unexpected that you can get to bring it back to what we do every day. what is the unexpected? what is the wildfire we could see six months forward, that is the raging debate? jonathan: i thought that was beautiful but you often ignore mine so i ignored yours. we are a team, we ignore each other. let's look at what the s&p 500 looks like. just about positive. yields hig

jonathan ferro is on assignment in italy.a looks nice this, via -- looks nice this time of year. thank you for joining us today. some say where you stay -- where do you stay, you stay right in the studio. it is as simple as that. it was exhausting yesterday because it was unexpected and you see it in the market reaction. i go back to michael mckee, not the tension in his voice with the understanding of the historic moment we saw yesterday. lisa: super hawkish skip. don't call it a skip anymore because jay powell seemed to not like that. there is a tension between what the fed says and what the fed does. they want to express hawkishness do not get the markets this early loosen conditions and loosen credit conditions for them and move away from what they want. on the other hand, it is unclear the conviction they have to raise rates by another 50 basis points. tom: we have claims today. that should be interesting. the monthly retail sales is a nominal statistical being. lisa: especially because car sales and used car sales have

i am jonathan ferro.ch negative going into the weekend, -- your equity markets just a touch negative going into the weekend, softer by 0.1 percent. tom: 13.76 on the vix and michael purves saying this does describe a bull market. then what? you reading this weekend is very big on the "then, what." of it. jonathan: i think about the story of the last year which is the handful of stocks dominating the market. i think this drowns out what is happening beneath the surface. lisa, you raise the right question about the rotation people have been waiting for. is it developing? not today. lisa a: the russell has been led by some of the smaller banks. in other places, it seems to be widening out. i wonder about michael purves' c omment that even if it is tech driving the force, do people catch up with other names? tom: how many people have enjoyed this from october rally? how many people really? jonathan: deutsche bank and evercore. there are two dominant names that stick out. last year, morgan stanley struggled to

stephen: we have not had a jonathan ferro siding -- sighting yet.ice lift to the market. we say good morning. lisa abramowicz is getting ready for that unclog arrow -- for the 9:00 hour. i mispronounced it. thank you to the global audience were threatening -- for shredding out the ugly american -- you have been there, no doubt. michael: want to talk about what we --tom: i want to talk about what we solve for adjustments from ellen zentner. do you anticipate lots of midyear adjustments from economists as we -- they get out from july and this is tempered meeting? michael: adjustments may come slowly but if you watch the data, it will we about -- it will be about, do the inflation numbers and job numbers come in as that that expect and i think the jobs numbers could be -- we get a big increase like we did last month with an -- unemployment come on raises questions on whether they want to tighten or not. they seem to want to but at this point, they are still -- still somewhat dated -- data -dependent. you are suggesting the numbers could come in -- tom:

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ving the door open for the fed to skip june as china continues a

this is bloomberg be open with jonathan ferro.

this is bloomberg: the open with jonathan ferro.ral reserve gearing up for a pause as inflation

that was the ceo of pimco, manny roman, speaking exclusively to jonathan ferro at their headquarterslifornia. there is plenty more ahead. we will talk more about these markets. dollar is weaker, but there is one currency standing out like a sore thumb. we will tell you what that is in just a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh the morgan stanley client experience? listening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪ >> obviously, it's a -- it has been a very dynamic and complex couple of years, and for players, i am not surprised that this is an awful lot to ask them to digest. this is a significant change for us in the direction that we were going now, but as i am trying to explain and i will continue to explain as we go forward, this ultimately is a decision that i think is in the best interest of all the members of the pga tour. rishaad: the head of the pga tour, jay monahan, they are defending the surprise me