jon golub with equities higher than the street. jonathan: some real confidence.he moment we are in right now i don't think demands conviction. it requires humility. that is the conversation around the federal reserve and what we may or may not see for the next 12 months. how'd nimble and humble will they be about the incoming data? tom: the survey shifted on jobs. one million jobs, many people now looking for that. some of that 7 million jobs jp morgan suggests is out there. the conversation could shift this friday. jonathan: the high, 2.1 million. the median estimate, nine haired 78,000. this economy is booming. a headline crossing the bloomberg. we talked about it last week briefly. verizon media, yahoo!, aol, all of that stuff we talked about, to be acquired by apollo funds for $5 billion. tom: a marked down from $10 billion. i was going back and forth a few days ago on what was the all in cost for verizon and their media soiree. that points out the winners and losers as we come out of this pandemic. lisa: and the idea that a lot of companies have a lot of cas

let's bring in jonathan golub right now. why the change? jonathan g: more than anything else, this is an earnings story that our earnings estimate for the s&p was the highest on wall street, and it is just too low. the numbers are coming into strong. banks are beating by 35%. tech is beating by almost 30%. industrials, discretionary companies are up 50%, 60% on average. ultimately, we needed to increase the earnings outlook. that was what drove it. as we see that the overall stock market price was right on our tail, we moved the numbers up. tom: i've got to congratulate you. you are looking at the guy who came out of january and said, if you sell tech and go to everything else, you're going to be out of your mind. in hindsight, you look like a genius. what do i do with tech? they didn't move on earnings. no surprise there. are they part of your list to 5000? jonathan g: yes and no. we actually think that boring old economists -- look, i've been a gross guy for a long time, and every stock has its moment in the sun. i don't know if this is th

: i'm catching up with jonathan golub a little bit later. mohamed el-erian, too. that's the lineup in the 9:00 hour. stay tuned. are you going to watch that from the radio booth? tom: no, we are doing a conference call of harry kane. jonathan: whilst you are meant to be on radio? [laughter] nice. co. you down to the opening bell, -- counting you down to the opening bell, two hours away. in the fx market, euro-dollar, $1.2270. crude doing ok. tom: entry point, bit dog? i have the bloomberg terminal. jonathan: on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. palestinians poured into the streets of the gaza strip to celebrate a cease-fire with israel. the hamas militant group and israeli forces are now observing a truce that ended 11 days of conflict. at least 232 people were killed by israeli airstrikes and artillery fire on gaza. dozens died knowing hamas rocket attacks on israel. the u.s. is now calling for a global minimum corporate tax of at least 15%, less than the 21% rate it has proposed for the overseas earnings of u.

alix: that was jonathan golub, credit suisse u.s.ity strategist, speaking earlier on "bloomberg surveillance." joining us now for her take is dana d'auria, envestnet portfolio management consultants' co-cio. dana manages $228 billion. let's pair this very aggressive you from jonathan golub with the ism numbers we got today. at what point do you look at these numbers and say we are topping out, we can't get more bang for our buck in the equity market? dana: that's a great question. i think everybody is kind of circling that question as far as if it is as good as it gets. we are seeing a lot of great numbers now. manufacturing, consumer confidence numbers, the equity market doing great, earnings coming in better than expected. earnings growth across the board, across sectors. i think you have to think about the tax package. we haven't heard a lot about this in the earnings guidance we have been receiving. there was an expectation that we might hear from companies around what their thoughts were on the expected corporate tax increases a

jonathan golub is super bullish on the street. lori calvasina recently upgrading her forecast.uybacks are better than expected, but also, the shrinkage in margins wasn't as bad as they thought, which i thought was particularly interesting considering that is the thing we keep talking about in terms of a supply shortage squeeze. are we going to see that trickle down to margins and hurt growth? that is one of the main reasons lori upgraded her forecast. guy: i do worry about this growth narrative, that all of these shortages are going to potential he lead to slower growth. the market i don't think has fully priced in that factor yet. we are seeing restrictions coming out of the chip sector. it is just leading into just about everything at the moment. you are seeing what is happening in the car sector. it has gone into the rental car market as well. the car rental companies can't get enough cars right now, so they are basically having to go out to auctions to buy them because there simply isn't the capacity there. these companies were flat on their back last year. some of these re

jonathan golub looking for 4600 on the s&p., an upgrade to energy and a downgrade to staples. others are bullish staples. they believe that is where the pricing power is. he suggests that the higher commodity prices come along energy, the higher input costs for staples, that is going to weigh on things. switch up the board. yesterday was fascinating. when equities moved badly, there were inflation fears. energy down 2.5%. banks down 1.3%. if i showed you that yesterday morning, i think we would have been talking about inflation fears. why was the nasdaq whipping back? tom: i think there's a bull component pushing back. jonathan: i agree with you. thank you. in the bond market, twos, tens, 30's, two-year yield unchanged. 10-year year at 1.6165%. 1.74% the high-end at the end of march. tom: i thought you were doing the dow. jonathan: this is for serious people. tom: ok, excuse me. i lost my head. jonathan: i thing i'm done, tom. are you done? tom: i'm not done. core cpi, 2.6% -- 2.3% to 2.6%. jonathan: thank you, tom. romaine, ha

lisa: let's talk about potential returns, but jonathan golub called for 22% returns in 2021. to 25%? andrew: i think next year's earnings are already up to about $208 from the low 190's at the beginning, that was the s&p getting around 190. we are up to $208. . to begin next year, i thin 4300 or 40400i think is doable as a forward peak. the most important thing here is, we all look at pe. we base them off forward estimates. the floor of forward pe's is, what happens if that e is wrong? that is what we're seeing here, the forward pe has been too optimistic. >> it is possible that we will see mid-4000's by year-end. jonathan: great to catch up with you, and your. a bit of media training for me as well. i think he is telling me what to ask next time someone talks about peak growth in the interview. pushback, jonathan, push back. there is a difference between saying there is limited upside in the equity market, and limited upside in the credit market. in high-yield, some of those markets in fixed income are constrained, which does limit the upside of particular markets within cre

raging tech battle as we look at general strategists like jungle up -- like jon golub, and leon cooperman coming up. jonathan target over at credit suisse right now, 4600 on the s&p 500. can we get there without the participation of big tech? i think a lot of people would struggle with that idea. lisa: i think a lot of people would say perhaps it would lag behind. there would still be this cyclical push to the entire market, even if tech perhaps isn't at the forefront. jonathan: let's go to the numbers out of gm. i know i sound like a broken record, so forgive me. this quarter, huge demand. there is huge demand in this economy right now. it is about whether you can meet that with supply. we saw the difficulty from caterpillar warning about that for the year ahead. you don't see that in gm this morning. the stock is up by 3.3% before we catch up with mary bar about an hour from now. on the inventories, 335,000 vehicles over at gm, almost half the 668,000 of a year ago. that is coming from our detroit bureau chief on that particular stat. that is important. these companies are starting to run leads of inventor