lieber with eurasia group, the u.s. managing director. an open question to you to begin . what is your number one focus as you begin to look at the mathematics of this election day? jonathanflorida. it is going to be florida. florida counts quickly. biden is ahead, but barely. a leade total could show for biden, and that could shift to trump as a net goes on. if florida looks like it is going to go for biden, this race is over, we can all pack up our bags and get ready for the new inauguration and transition. jonathan f: you are calling, as a house, for a biden win. what do you see in the numbers that gives you that conviction? jonathan l: this has been a steady race, and biden has had a polling lead, despite trump's relatively high approval rating given the coronavirus, biden has had the lead since he clinched the nomination in march. within 2% of hillary clinton in 2016, and you saw a collapse in hillary clinton's numbers over the last 10 days. brokeded voters towards donald trump. that is just not happen this time around. the trend -- no trend is suggesting that lead will go away. and all of the swing states that bidenwon that 2016, all needs to do is when one of them.