jonathan powell, course. -- precedents. jonathan powell. going — course. -- precedents.onathan powell, going back to _ course. -- precedents. jonathan powell, going back to that - powell, going back to that supposedly breach of the civil service code, to be setting up this job whilst still a senior civil servant, is that something similar to what you did? tell us what extent that might be the same as what you did or different. if} that might be the same as what you did or different.— did or different. 30 years ago, i was working — did or different. 30 years ago, i was working in _ did or different. 30 years ago, i was working in the _ did or different. 30 years ago, i was working in the embassy - did or different. 30 years ago, i was working in the embassy in l was working in the embassy in washington and was approached by tony blair— washington and was approached by tony blair to be chief of staff, and having _ tony blair to be chief of staff, and having got — tony blair to be chief of staff, and having got the job i told my boss is that is— having got the job i told my

they included from the uk lord chesterton mejia, sir michael warren called murphy, jonathan powell,ffl jeffries. ireland's, dick spring, davidfr andrews, sean, liz o'donnell, david cooney, tim o'connell and david donahue. special recognition must of course go to the leaders of the major northern ireland parties. jon q led the social democrats and david trumbull led the unionist party. without jon, there would not have been a peace process. back. [applause] without david trumbull, there would not have been a peace agreement. [applause] they were justly awarded the nobel peace prize. lord trumbull later served as the first minister of the northern ireland government. he was greatly aided by several officials gorge, lord jon taylor, lord ken mugginess for donaldson. in the stl p you received strong support from several talented leaders including seamus a brilliant orator and negotiator who later became deputy first minister rogers, sean. gerry adams the late led into and through the entire process. they were assisted by gerry kelly, barbara o'brien and alex who is now the speaker of the

jonathan powell— various shades of government. jonathan powell left— various shades of government.in that her parting gift, ref-e eew :— gray in that her parting gift, ref-e eew : ee— gray in that her parting gift, ref-e eew , ee e— gray in that her parting gift, let's say , as a civil servant let's say, as a civil servant fe— let's say, as a civil servant fe rhe— let's say, as a civil servant was to the demise of a prime rrhfefer— was to the demise of a prime minister this— was to the demise of a prime minister this investigation. she efer-f— minister this investigation. she efer-f whe— minister this investigation. she didn't bring down boris johnson : hef— didn't bring down boris johnson : hwf ehe— didn't bring down boris johnson : hwf ehe hee— didn't bring down boris johnson , but she had brought himself eewh. — , but she had brought himself few we— , but she had brought himself few we .— , but she had brought himself down. no , but— , but she had brought himself down. no , but how- , but she had brought himself down. \rrt:r it?" , but she had brought himself down. \rrt:r cr?" ,

jonathan: he was an advisor to powell as well. tom: this is the guy, i suggest lead the charge on this think we tossed around. jonathan: looking forward to the fed speak this morning. eric friedman joins us. always wonderful to catch up with you. are we had a risk of being sucked in to an equity market rally before the big fold? eric: we think there is a risk of people capitulating to the upside. our viewpoint has been what you shared earlier in program, we think variables work against both corporate profits and consumer. our strategy has been, despite concerns about were fed ponsetto out -- fed fund to sell out and consumer tracking area, we have done so with degree of debate amongst our team, but it is the right decision to shrink up the track. i think 4200 has been the level. if we see that level exceed on good volume, you can see people say let's throw in the towel and wait for better opportunity to be more negative. tom: level one see if a -- level 1 cfa, what i see are corporations adapting into what they have been given most

jonathan: some people would not give chairman powell a ringing endorsement on monetary policy. n in particular. jonathan: i have my voice in his head -- i have his voice in my head saying no. our next guests are coming up in the next hour. ♪ bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright. xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. >> lisa: a very interesting monday as we find out jp morgan has agreed to acquire all of first republic with a guarantee in some sort of loan loss sharing with the fdic amid great uncertainty with the fed meeting and apple results in tomorrow we get jewels data and freddie we get payrolls -- we get jewels data and friday we get payrolls. -- we get jewels -- jolts data and freddie we get payrolls. it will be about half $1 billion of -- a year that they get interest payments. in the broader market, stocks are little changed with more action in the bond market with yields higher and prices lower especially as there are a number of bond deals that got

jonathan: chairman powell, who will we get?ble lags and maybe we are done here? tom: it will be interesting to see. they will meet, paul and bernanke in honor of john williams dying young. you go to where we are with lombok and williams and then go on to blanchard of a reduced r starred. will we get back down to a lower rate, a lower yield regime? all of these fuzzy concepts though -- jonathan: all of these fuzzy concepts though. tom: lisa, can we believe in a six-month the goal? no one is looking for the yield structure short-term to move higher. lisa a.: the person who we should have asked about that is lindsay piegza because she forecasts a 6% fed funds rate. with respect to do tightening and r start, they take a dartboard, and r starred, you take a dartboard and throw it, you are likely to -- tom: let me start with you. we got it wrong. with the bank of england last week,, citigroup, we got it wrong, there are these other factors going on besides conventional bowtie economics. it is not working. there are other issues like

jonathan: who knows? lisa: how lucky is christine lagarde that she goes after jay powell? uance the statement. jonathan: they happen to be behind in the process. it's not just the calendar but they are behind in the process as well. tom: it's a different political mix. the inflation numbers and witnessing which you and your family are living in the united kingdom and europe, they are nowhere comparable to the united states. take the worst anecdote in the united states and it's a walk in the park compared to what citizens are feeling in greece or the u.k. or finland. jonathan: we can have this conversation with our next guest. katrina dudley joins us now. the difference in the inflation the euro zone is experiencing than the united states, is there a big difference? >> we need to think about was generating the inflation in the eurozone region and what has been generating it. the war in ukraine is really not come to light for a long time. that is really what is reflected in the european inflation numbers. it's a fact that someone cut off the gas supply and we needed to replac

jonathan: chairman powell tomorrow as well that marathon of fed speak so far. we are so excited. hsbc has been bullish this year. max, great to catch up with you, sir. talk about the sweet spot we are in. are we so in that sweet spot? >> good morning. i think we are. i think we are right in the middle of the sweet spot. when we look at some of the data you guys were just talking about the jobless claims they were on the uptrend it turns out some of the data is probably wrong because of the data breach we had in massachusetts. the jobless claims are worse than expected so you are sort of in this limbo where the data is not clear-cut for us that is perfect it's a bit of food for thought the rate cuts are not being priced out yet because we in particular see 3% in the next couple of months you got mixed data, beating expectations but not too much what more do i want? tom: steve cohen shares your optimism for you it's based around how corporations are adapting. what leads to your optimism? >> i think the ai theme in particular if you look at asia it's a pretty big name and will proba

jonathan: chairman powell hannah reed on that already.xpected. this is gradual tightening from the rate hikes. we are also looking at single names. there been earnings coming out throughout this week, including tyson foods. this tells you something about the economy. shares down 8.3% in premarket trading, cutting its outlook from each a up -- for meat sales. consumers are switching to cheaper foods. to say consumers can absorb higher costs, can they? which items do not have pricing power? dish network is down 1.7 percent after missing estimates for earnings sales and showing subscriber losses. they talk about a hack that made things more expensive. i wonder how much cybersecurity will play in this. pack west shares searc 39%. tom: i will do the bath to be responsible to our audience. i will do the resistance math. lisa: i wonder have we seen the worst of it? is this recovery enough? or is this persistent feeling that something has changed and it seems like that is what is baked into the market? jonathan: i thought we had found stability a

jonathan. joining us now is former democratic congresswoman debbie mccarr so powell. congresswoman, great having you on in the midst of this breaking news. give us your sense -- on assessment of what you heard from mccarthy and if you've had any conversations with members, what are you hearing among democrats right now? >> well, good evening, michael. look, there's been a lot of anxiety for members for some of the members that i served with the democratic caucus because they understand very well would not passing a clean debt ceiling bill means for the united states economy and for the trust of the american economy globally. there is been a lot of anxiety. i also think many of them are extremely concerned on the cuts that they were mentioning. cutting health care benefits to veterans. cutting funding for border security. making significant cuts and investment in jobs. so these are members that have to go back to their districts and explain the bill. so it's interesting listening to kevin mccarthy there, he didn't give a lot of detail, he's going to have a very hard ti

jonathan: did you read that this morning that this is a jay powell issue? lisa: i think it's important because it means it will be that much more perilous for them to keep rates high if unemployment rates go up. if you start to see an economy that materially weakens and there is a lack of confidence in jay powell to start with, it makes their job that much more challenging going forward. i take your point and i agree but in this poll, you can see all the leaders who have no -- who people have no confidence in. jonathan: if you are wondering where tk, he's still working his way through the pole. what did you make of that? lisa: i thought it was interesting, nothing decline or the standards but the demand side. that tank to the fastest pace going back to 2009. is this a confidence issue by banks? jonathan: we are anticipating it will continue with the year ahead. on the price action this tuesday morning, this is what it looks like now on the s&p 500. we barely put together a day of gains monday. in the bond market, yields are coming back about three basis poi

jonathan: i'm interested in your interpretation of chairman powell.u get the impression he was saying there is reason to be calm because there is reason to be calm around financials, or did you get a sense he was saying that because he's got no choice but to say that? priya: i think it is both. essentially, they are trying to buy time. it is not up to the fed to solve the banking problem. they did what they could do. they cannot solve the capital problem. that is something the private sector banks have to do. that is something being fdic has to do. what the fed is trying to do is say, the ball is somebody -- is in somebody else's court. all we can do is provide liquidity and buy time. i think he was trying to buy time. if the bank start to stabilize, i think the fed can potentially hike further. he was noncommittal in our view. jonathan: you are not of the opinion this regional banking system is struggling with 5% interest rates? priya: they are, but it is the fed's job to help the banking system right now. i would say this idea they can separate mone

[bell ringing] jonathan: live from new york, coming up, chair powell pausing -- preparing to

jonathan: a slew of fed speak. you will hear from the following today and chairman powell friday.splintering in the fed speak in the last 24 hours. tom: we've been wonderful to have richard clarida and the debate about the above 2% rate. let's go to andrew holland horst now. i want to go to the unspeakable which is the three-month treasury bill has gone back to 2007/2008 level so what is the ability of the three-month treasury given what you see it citigroup to go where it was in 1999/2000 to get up to a 6% load? >> it is interesting that we've seen these rates that have gone up quite rapidly as the fed has responded to inflation. that's where i would take the conversation back and it depends on inflation. we've had some different views and i think it's a healthy thing. the debate is whether it will be above or below 2% and markets are expecting a rapid slowing in inflation and investors are little bit more cautious but you if you look at the forecast, they have core pce inflation around 3% so they see it slowing. you will see the short rates that won't go higher than where they a

jonathan: then bingo, no fed speak whatsoever until the fed meeting. minimal value. chairman powelliday. take a look at what he had to say. >> we've come a long way and policy tightening3 . we face uncertainty about the lag effects of our timing so far and the extent of credit tightening from recent banking stresses. having come this far, we can afford to look at the data and the outlook to make careful assessments. jonathan: do they have the luxury of time not to hike in june? i don't hear that word pause when the chairman speaks. neel kashkari of the minneapolis fed over the weekend to the journal went out of the way to make that point as well. if the committee chooses to skip a meeting because we want to get more information, i could make the argument why that makes sense. they skip to get more information is different in my mind than saying -- we think we are done. tom: cpi just before the meeting is way more important. their data dependency waits until the last moment. the senior economist from morgan stanley joins us now. thanks for coming by i want to look at the economic dat

powell to relax. in the last couple of days it has become more restrictive. jonathan: equities negative 0.2%. another big week for equity. anna of wells fargo coming up. the future looking softer, from new york city, this is bloomberg.. lisa: can you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word, i but lisa mateo. president biden has a high-stakes meeting next week on that debt limit. the treasury department warned a potential default can come sooner than expected. republican kevin mccarthy has said he will not extend the debt limit unless there are trillions of dollars in cuts to the federal budget. underlying inflation in the euro area slowed for the first time in months. after stripping out food and fuel, consumer prices rose from a year ago. a case for the european central bank to slow its most aggressive interest rate hiking campaign later this week. white house considering promoting federal reserve governor philip jefferson to a vice chair. a latino candidate could then be named to an open board slot. it was confirmed by the senate last year with broad bipartisan suppor

powell is. or is he not? does he have a singular voice if they make a decision? i'm not sure that's been communicated. jonathanhat's the consensus on the committee. marry drive used to be criticized all the time -- mario draghi used to be criticized all the time. lisa: he had the luxury of rates that went nowhere. jonathan: i also think marriott drug -- mario draghi have the chops to do that. td securities is coming up shortly, from new york -- was i diplomatic? lisa: you almost were. 1 jonathan: this is bloomberg. lisa: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word. nouriel roubini is warning the talks to avoid u.s. default could drag on with failure to agree on a debt ceiling likely to hit markets and damage confidence in the dollar. in an exclusive conversation with bloomberg at the economic forum in doha, he said he believes the u.s. and china are headed down a path of confrontation after a g7 summit in japan. >> i would say there is mike i be any thought between the west and china. they say others are ganging up against china. but this will get colder. lisa: he signal the threat o